Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019

3. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public3 Voting Intention: December 2019 All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention Conservative lead = +9Conservative lead = +12 44% 32% 13% 2% 3% 6% Conservative Labour Lib Dems Brexit Party Green Other 42% 33% 13% 2% 3% 7% Conservative Labour Lib Dem Brexit Party Green Other Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections, registered to vote and answers reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency = 1,244. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?

4. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 Jun18 Jul18 Aug18 Sep18 Oct18 Nov18 Dec18 Jan19 Feb19 Mar19 Apr19 May19 Jun19 Jul19 Aug19 Sep19 Oct19 Nov19 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election 4 44% Conservative % December ‘19 Johnson as PM (July 19) Dec19 Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 32% Labour General Election How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?

5. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) Johnson as PM (July 19) Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) Headline voting intention: January ‘04 –December ’19 % Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dec ‘19 44% Conservative 32% Labour 13% Lib Dem 2% The Brexit Party 3% Green 0% UKIP General Election 5 Dec19 How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?

7. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentJo Swinson Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: December 2019 7 68% 8% 24% 51% 20% 29% Dissatisfied Don’t know Satisfied +8% swing from Oct 2019 -2% swing from Oct 2019 +3% swing from Oct 2019 Net=-44 Net= -22 Net=-49Net=-20% 56% 7% 36% 23% 5% 72% Nigel Farage 56% 14% 30% Net=-26 -11% swing from Oct 2019 -5% swing from Oct 2019 Base: 1,545 British adults 18+ 2-4 December 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job. as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party/Leader of the liberal democrats/ leader of the Brexit party?

8. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Net = -20 December 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 36% Satisfied 7% Don’t know 56% Dissatisfied July 2019 – December 2019 36% Satisfied 56% Dissatisfied Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 8 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? 36% 7% 56%

9. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Net = +68% December 2019 82% Satisfied 7% Don’t know 14% Dissatisfied July 2019 – December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 574 Conservative party supporters 18+, 2-4 December 2019 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 82% Satisfied 14% Dissatisfied 82% 7% 14%

10. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019) 10 Number of months after becoming prime minister Netsatisfaction Johnson Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Blair Major Cameron Johnson Brown Thatcher May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

11. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) 11 Blair’s gov Major’s gov Cameron’s gov Johnson’s gov Brown’s gov Thatcher’s gov May’s gov Netsatisfaction Johnson Number of months after assuming government Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way The government is running the country?

12. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction Net = -44% December 2019 24% Satisfied 8% Don’t know 68% Dissatisfied September 2015 – December 2019 24% Satisfied 68% Dissatisfied Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? 24% 8% 68%

13. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Corbyn Corbyn Blair Smith Kinnock Miliband Foot Cameron Duncan-smith Hague Howard Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019) Netsatisfaction Number of months after becoming opposition leader Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 13 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

14. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Net = +24% December 2019 57% Satisfied 8% Don’t know 33% Dissatisfied September 2015 – December 2019 57% Satisfied 33% Dissatisfied Base: 403 Labour Party supporters aged 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour party? Dec19 57% 8% 33%

15. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Jo Swinson: Satisfaction December 2019 Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 15 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jo Swinson is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Net = -22 29% Satisfied 20% Don’t know 51% Dissatisfied 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 July 2019 – December 2019 29% Satisfied 51% Dissatisfied 29% 20% 51%

17. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Economic Optimism Index EOI = -29 December 2019 January 2007– December 2019 21% Get better 20% Stay the same Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 50% Get worse 50% 20% 21% 9% 50% Get worse 20% Stay the same 21% Improve 9% Don’t know 17 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

18. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Economic Optimism Index (1998-2019) 18 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 Jan2019 Oct2019 Base: 1,545, British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net optimism -29% Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Dec2019

20. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Which party to vote for? % Definitely decided Have you definitely decided to vote for one party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? 20 63% 67% 78% 80% 59% 72% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Nov-19 Dec-19 56% 57% 76% 80% 54% 69% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Nov-19 Dec-19 78% 77% 75% 86% 71% 80% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Nov-19 Dec-19 63% 67% 78% 80% 40% 61% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Nov-19 Dec-19 Among all Among Labour party supporters Among Liberal Democrat supporters Among Conservative party supporters Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Base: All British adults 18+ giving a voting intention (1,371), Conservative supporters (574), Labour supporters (403), Lib Dem supporters (189), 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public21 Which party to vote for? % May change mind 49% 30% 56% 51% 50% 41% 38% 34% 36% 32% 20% 40% 27% Apr-10 May-10 Aug-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Apr-15 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Nov-19 Dec-19 Have you definitely decided to vote for one party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Cameron re-elected (May 15) Cameron elected (May 10) May elected (June 17) Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All British adults 18+ giving a voting intention (1,371)

22. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Who might you vote for instead? Among all who might change their mind If you do change your mind about voting for this party, which party would you vote for instead? 22 Base: 379 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention who might change their mind, 122 Conservative party supporters who might change their mind, 124 Labour supporters who might change their mind, Liberal Democrats who might change their mind (73) 2-4 December 2019 *Small base size Among Conservative supporters who might change their mind Among Labour party supporters who might change their mind 8% 17% 21% 7% 6% 4% 4% 28% Conservative Labour Lib Dems Brexit Party Green UKIP Would not vote Don't know 20% 15% 18% 5% 7% 6% 24% Labour Lib Dems Brexit Party Green UKIP Would not vote Don't know Among Lib Dem supporters who might change their mind* 9% 41% 3% 6% 2% 4% 30% Conservative Lib Dems Brexit Party Green UKIP Would not vote Don't know 13% 34% - 9% - 2% 33% Conservative Labour Brexit Party Green UKIP Would not vote Don't know Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

24. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Which issues will help decide your vote? Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 24 7% 7% 7% 10% 10% 11% 22% 52% 55% Don’t know Asylum and immigration Taxation Crime and anti-social behaviour Managing the economy / economic situation Protecting the enviroment/climate change Education / Schools Healthcare / NHS / hospitals Europe / EU / Brexit Change since Nov -8 +11 +1 0 -4 +1 +3 0 Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 0

25. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Which issues will help decide your vote? Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 25 10% 11% 22% 52% 55% Crime Environment Education Health Brexit 11% 13% 29% 43% 71% Poverty Environment Education Brexit Health 15% 16% 19% 45% 68% Crime Economy Education Health Brexit 11% 20% 25% 52% 75% Economy Environment Education Health Brexit Among all Among Labour party supporters Among Liberal Democrat supporters Among Conservative party supporters Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All British adults 18+ (1,545), Conservative supporters (574), Labour supporters (403), Lib Dem supporters (189), 2-4 December 2019

26. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 26 Which issues will help decide your vote? 14% 50% 39% 3% 7% 11% 6% 2% 26% 23% 5% 32% 12% 14% 7% 47% 24% 5% 35% 16% 19% 42% 43% 22% 2% 16% 12% 12% 55% 52% 22% 11% 10% 7% 7% Europe Healthcare Education Environment Managing the economy Taxation Asylum and immigration Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorGE2015GE2010GE2001 GE2017 GE2019 Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019

28. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public Who would make the most capable Prime Minister? Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, the Conservative’s Boris Johnson, or Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn? 28 Boris Johnson 57% 61% 56% 50% 47% 46% 46% 51% 52% 50% 49% 47% 28% 23% 29% 35% 36% 38% 37% 33% 27% 29% 30% 31% Sept 2015 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 June 2017 July 2017 Sept 2018 June 2019 July 2019 Sept 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Theresa May David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Jeremy Corbyn Jeremy Corbyn Dec 19 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019

29. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public29 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 15% 19% 19% 22% 24% 26% 28% 32% 34% 38% 38% 38% 44% 48% 16% 38% 43% 39% 42% 31% 40% 31% 23% 26% 23% 20% 20% 15% Environment Care for older and disabled people Poverty and inequality Housing Benefits Pensions Healthcare Education Asylum and immigration Taxation Crime and anti-social behaviour Handling Britain's future relationship with the EU Managing the economy Defence Best party on key issues Which party do you think has the best policies on … the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, or some other party? Conservative party Labour party

30. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Apr17 Jun17 Aug17 Oct17 Dec17 Feb18 Apr18 Jun18 Aug18 Oct18 Dec18 Feb19 Apr19 Jun19 Aug19 Oct19 Dec19 Best Party on Brexit % Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dec ‘19 38% Conservative 20% Labour 8% Lib Dem 30 Which party do you think has the best policies on handling Britain's future relationship with the European Union?

31. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Mar88 Mar89 Mar90 Mar91 Mar92 Mar93 Mar94 Mar95 Mar96 Mar97 Mar98 Mar99 Mar00 Mar01 Mar02 Mar03 Mar04 Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Blair re-elected (June 2001) Blair elected for 3rd time (May 2005) Cameron elected (May 2010) Cameron re-elected (May 2015) Major elected (Apr 1992) Blair elected (May 1997) May elected (June 2017) Dec19 Best Party on Healthcare % Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dec ‘19 28% Conservative 40% Labour 8% Lib Dem 31 Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

32. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Oct77 Oct78 Oct79 Oct80 Oct81 Oct82 Oct83 Oct84 Oct85 Oct86 Oct87 Oct88 Oct89 Oct90 Oct91 Oct92 Oct93 Oct94 Oct95 Oct96 Oct97 Oct98 Oct99 Oct00 Oct01 Oct02 Oct03 Oct04 Oct05 Oct06 Oct07 Oct08 Oct09 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Blair re-elected (June 2001) Blair 2nd re-election (May 2005) Cameron elected (May 2010) Cameron re-elected (May 2015) Major elected (Apr 1992) Blair elected (May 1997) May elected (June 2017) Dec19 Thatcher 2nd re-election (Jun 1987) Thatcher re-elected (Jun 1987) Thatcher elected (May 1979) Best Party on Education % Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dec ‘19 32% Conservative 31% Labour 9% Lib Dem 32 Which party do you think has the best policies on education, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

33. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar90 Mar91 Mar92 Mar93 Mar94 Mar95 Mar96 Mar97 Mar98 Mar99 Mar00 Mar01 Mar02 Mar03 Mar04 Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Blair re-elected (June 2001) Blair 2nd re-election (May 2005) Cameron elected (May 2010) Cameron re-elected (May 2015) Major elected (Apr 1992) Blair elected (May 1997) May elected (June 2017) Dec19 Best Party on the Economy % Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dec ‘19 44% Conservative 20% Labour 8% Lib Dem 33 Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy?

34. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public34 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Best party at looking after various interests Which political party, if any, do you think would be best at…. 11% 21% 24% 17% Other Liberal Democrats Labour Conservatives Looking after the interests of women 5% 8% 44% 26% Other Liberal Democrats Labour Conservatives Looking after the interests of working people 6% 18% 23% 25% Other Liberal Democrats Labour Conservatives Protecting people against prejudice and discrimination

35. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public35 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 31% 24% 40% Second referendum on Scottish Independence If the Scottish National Party wins most seats in Scotland in the General Election, do you think there should or should not be a second referendum on Scottish independence next year, or do you have no feelings either way? There should be one There should not be one Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 No feelings either way

36. Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com Keiran Pedley Research Director keiran.pedley@ipsos.com Ipsos MORI December 2019 Political Monitor For more information

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019

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