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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2016

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Theresa May is enjoying a warm honeymoon welcome with the public according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. More than half (54%) say they are satisfied with Ms May’s performance in her first month as PM while one in five (19%) say they are dissatisfied – leaving her with a net satisfaction score of +35. This is comparable to her predecessor David Cameron’s rating in June 2010 when 57% were satisfied with him doing his job as PM and 26% dissatisfied. Although higher than those of John Major and Gordon Brown in their first month as Prime Minister, May’s satisfaction ratings are still behind Tony Blair’s first month back in May 1997 (65% were satisfied and 5% dissatisfied).

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2016

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI August 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 772. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out. Voting Intention 41% 36% 7% 4% 7% 5% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 45% 34% 6% 4% 7% 5%
  4. 4. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public 22% 30% 48% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 41% 45% 14% +4% swing from July 2016 +4% swing from July 2016 +20.5% swing from July 2016 +35 Net -33 Net -8 Net -4 Net SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 19% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 45% 54% 19% 27% 25% 58% 17% Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – August’16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 MAY CORBYN FARRON 54% 25% 22%
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 (368 Con supporters) Theresa May (satisfaction) 54% 19% 27% August 2016 (All) August 2016 (Conservative supporters) SATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 19% DON’T KNOW 27% Net = +35 76% 4% 20% SATISFIED 76% DISSATISFIED 4% DON’T KNOW 20% Net = +72
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public 25% 58% 17% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 SATISFIED 25% DISSATISFIED 58% DON’T KNOW 17% Net = -33 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public 39% 47% 14% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 SATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 47% DON’T KNOW 14% Net = -8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 301 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public 22% 30% 48% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 SATISFIED 22% DISSATISFIED 30% DON’T KNOW 48% Net = -8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 Tim Farron (satisfaction) August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  13. 13. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 13 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public 28% 22% 43% 6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 IMPROVE 28% STAY THE SAME 22% GET WORSE 43% DON’T KNOW 6% EOI = -15 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 Economic Optimism Index August 2016
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1997 Jun1997 Nov1997 Apr1998 Sep1998 Feb1999 Jul1999 Dec1999 May2000 Oct2000 Mar2001 Aug2001 Jan2002 Jun2002 Nov2002 Apr2003 Sep2003 Feb2004 Jul2004 Dec2004 May2005 Oct2005 Mar2006 Aug2006 Jan2007 Jun2007 Nov2007 Apr2008 Sep2008 Feb2009 Jul2009 Dec2009 May2010 Oct2010 Mar2011 Aug2011 Jan2012 Jun2012 Nov2012 Apr2013 Sep2013 Feb2014 Jul2014 Dec2014 May2015 Oct2015 Mar2016 Aug2016 -15
  16. 16. 16Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public AS YOU WILL KNOW, IN JUNE THE UNITED KINGDOM VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IN A REFERENDUM. WOULD YOU SAY YOU FEEL MORE OR LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR YOUR OWN PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS THAN IF THE UK HAD VOTED TO REMAIN, OR HAS IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase:; 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 Confidence in personal finances after EU referendum 13 8 13 11 5 10 13 9 14 13 3 11 44 26 42 28 30 34 12 25 12 20 27 19 15 29 15 22 34 23 3 4 4 6 4 C2DE ABC1 55+ 35-54 18-34 All MUCH MORE CONFIDENT A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT NO DIFFERENT A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT MUCH LESS CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW
  17. 17. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 17 August 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

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