Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - November 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORI
November 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | November 2016 | Final | Public
42%
33%
7%
3%
10%
5%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it
depends vote in General Elections = 772. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the
2015 GE.
Voting Intention
41%
33%
8%
3%
10%
5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +8
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May03
Nov03
May04
Nov04
May05
Nov05
May06
Nov06
May07
Nov07
May08
Nov08
May09
Nov09
May10
Nov10
May11
Nov11
May12
Nov12
May13
Nov13
May14
Nov14
May15
Nov15
May16
Nov16
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: April ‘03 – Oct ‘16
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
23%
36%
41%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Base: : 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
43%
47%
10%
+4%
swing from October 2016
-2.5%
-0.5%
+6%
+24 Net -29 Net -13 Net -4 Net
SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 43%
DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 57% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 47%
54%
30%
16%
28%
57%
14%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – November’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
MAY CORBYN FARRON
54%
28%
23%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: : 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016
Theresa May (satisfaction)
54%
30%
16%
November 2016 August 2016 - November 2016
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 16%
Net = +24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 361 Conservative supporters 18+ 11th – 14th November 2016
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
87%
4%
9%
November 2016
SATISFIED 87%
DISSATISFIED 4%
DON’T KNOW 9%
Net = +83
August 2016 - November 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

28%
57%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
SATISFIED 28%
DISSATISFIED 57%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = -29
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
November 2016 September 2015 – November 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

47%
41%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
SATISFIED 47%
DISSATISFIED 41%
DON’T KNOW 12%
Net = +6
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 286 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

23%
36%
41%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
SATISFIED 23%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 41%
Net = -13
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

26%
23%
47%
5%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
May-06
Dec-06
Aug-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-152
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
IMPROVE 26%
STAY THE SAME 23%
GET WORSE 47%
DON’T KNOW 5%
EOI = -21
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016
Economic Optimism Index
November 2016

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Mar1997
Jul1997
Nov1997
Mar1998
Jul1998
Nov1998
Mar1999
Jul1999
Nov1999
Mar2000
Jul2000
Nov2000
Mar2001
Jul2001
Nov2001
Mar2002
Jul2002
Nov2002
Mar2003
Jul2003
Nov2003
Mar2004
Jul2004
Nov2004
Mar2005
Jul2005
Nov2005
Mar2006
Jul2006
Nov2006
Mar2007
Jul2007
Nov2007
Mar2008
Jul2008
Nov2008
Mar2009
Jul2009
Nov2009
Mar2010
Jul2010
Nov2010
Mar2011
Jul2011
Nov2011
Mar2012
Jul2012
Nov2012
Mar2013
Jul2013
Nov2013
Mar2014
Jul2014
Nov2014
Mar2015
Jul2015
Nov2015
Mar2016
Jul2016
Nov2016
-21

Autumn Statement

39%
28%
34%
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS
DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)
SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 28%
DON’T KNOW 34%
Net = +9

66%
44%
67%
52%
45% 45%
34%
39%
44%
42%
37%
39%
36%37%
18%
31%
17%
24%
28%
38%
34%
52%
44%
56%
45%
42%
48%
52%
34%
41%
55%
57%
48%
46%
49%
47%
42%
32%
28%
36%
40%
36%
38%
28%27%
47%
43%44%
35%
40%
27%
39%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-76
Mar-77
Apr-78
Jul-80
Mar-82
Jun-83
Mar-85
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Dec-93
Dec-94
Nov-95
Dec-95
Nov-96
Dec-96
Jul-97
Feb-98
Mar-98
Mar-99
Feb-00
Mar-00
Jul-00
Sep-00
Nov-00
Mar-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Mar-04
Nov-05
Feb-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Mar-08
Mar-10
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Mar-13
Apr-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Nov-16
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS
DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016
Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)
% saying ‘satisfied’
Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Hammond

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ……. IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR
OF THE EXCHEQUER?
SATISFIED DISSATISFIED
39
40
28
52
31
37
39%
28
23
44
20
49
40
37%
Phillip Hammond (Nov' 16)
George Osborne (Jun' 10)
Alistair Darling (Mar' 08)
Gordon Brown (Jul' 97)
Ken Clarke (Dec' 93)
Norman Lamont (Mar' 91)
John Major (Mar' 90)
Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016
Chancellor’s first satisfaction ratings
-21%
Economic Optimism
Index that month
-5%
-47%
+10%
-6%
-1%
-43%

41%
30%
18%
10%
46%
28%
8%
18%
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR, THE CONSERVATIVE’S
PHILLIP HAMMOND, OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?
Most capable Chancellor
46%
29%
10%
15%
Osborne vs Ed Balls
March 2015
Osborne vs John McDonnell
February 2016
Hammond vs McDonnell
November 2016
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR NEITHER DON’T KNOW

SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER THERESA MAY WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE
GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?
Managing the economy - short term trends
Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 Previously asked as ‘Since it was elected last year, do you think the government
has done a good job or a bad job at managing the economy?’
GOOD JOB BAD JOB DON’T KNOW
56%
42%
51%
37%
47%
30%
7%
11%
20%
March 2015 May 2016 November 2016

GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?
Managing the economy- long tem trends
Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 Previously asked as ‘Since it was elected…., do you think the government has done
a good job or a bad job at managing the economy?’
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
51
42
56
47
36
37
59
62
71
52
60
50
60
30
47
37
46
55
59
32
28
16
32
24
29
24
November 2016
May 2016
March 2015
March 2014
October 2011
April 2010
May 2007
April 2005
May 2001
November 2000
November 1999
November 1998
April 1998

WHICH ONE OF THESE, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR OPINION ON CUTTING PUBLIC
SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT?
The deficit
NOVEMBER 2016 NOVEMBER 2015
33
31
27
2
1
6
34
32
27
1
1
6
It is still necessary to reduce the deficit by cutting public
spending
It was necessary in the last parliament to reduce the deficit by
cutting public spending, but it is not necessary any more
It was never necessary to reduce the deficit by cutting public
spending
Other
None of these
Don’t know

Political Monitor | November 2016 | FINAL | Public | 26
As you may know, there is a
benefit cap that applies to people
aged 16-64, who are not working
or who work less than 16 hours a
week. It applies to benefits such as
child tax credit, housing benefit,
jobseeker's allowance and income
support, but excludes others such
as disability living allowance.
Earlier this month the maximum
amount a household could receive
was reduced from £26,000 per
year to £20,000 outside London
(and £23,000 inside London). To
what extent, if at all, do you
support or oppose reducing the
maximum amount of benefits a
household can receive from
£26,000 per year to £20,000?
The benefit cap
STRONGLY SUPPORT TEND TO SUPPORT
NEITHER SUPPORT
NOR OPPOSE
TEND TO
OPPOSE
STRONGLY
OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
27%
24%
12%
12%
22%
3%

AND ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THAT GEORGE OSBORNE’S ECONOMIC POLICIES WHEN HE WAS
CHANCELLOR BETWEEN 2010 AND 2016 WERE GOOD OR BAD FOR THE COUNTRY?
George Osborne’s legacy
Base : 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016
40
49
11
GOOD BAD DON’T KNOW

Brexit

Political Monitor | November 2016 | FINAL | Public | 29
As you may know, formal
negotiations over Britain’s exit
from the European Union cannot
begin until Britain gives official
notice that it intends to leave,
under Article 50 of the treaty.
Recently, the High Court has said
that the government may not
trigger Article 50 without a vote
in favour from parliament. Some
MPs and peers also want the vote
to be about the terms of Britain’s
future relationship with the EU,
while others think the
Government should be left to
negotiate the terms as it sees best.
If there is a vote in parliament,
which of the following options is
closest to your view:
Brexit and Parliament
PARLIAMENT SHOULD JUST VOTE
ON WHETHER TO TRIGGER
ARTICLE 50, WHILE LETTING THE
GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATE THE
TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU
PARLIAMENT SHOULD ALSO
TELL THE GOVERNMENT WHAT
TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU
TO NEGOTIATE
THERE SHOULD BE NO
VOTE IN PARLIAMENT AT
ALL (UNPROMPTED) DON’T KNOW
44
37
12
6

AS YOU MAY KNOW, FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS OVER BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION CANNOT BEGIN UNTIL BRITAIN GIVES OFFICIAL
NOTICE THAT IT INTENDS TO LEAVE, UNDER ARTICLE 50 OF THE TREATY. RECENTLY, THE HIGH COURT HAS SAID THAT THE GOVERNMENT MAY NOT
TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 WITHOUT A VOTE IN FAVOUR FROM PARLIAMENT. SOME MPS AND PEERS ALSO WANT THE VOTE TO BE ABOUT THE TERMS OF
BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU, WHILE OTHERS THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE LEFT TO NEGOTIATE THE TERMS AS IT SEES
BEST. IF THERE IS A VOTE IN PARLIAMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS IS CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?
PARLIAMENT SHOULD JUST VOTE ON WHETHER TO TRIGGER
ARTICLE 50, WHILE LETTING THE GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATE THE
TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU
PARLIAMENT SHOULD ALSO TELL THE GOVERNMENT WHAT
TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU TO
NEGOTIATE
32%
46%
52%
61%
27%
36%
51%
53%
36%
25%
18%
60%
51%
22%
18-34
35-54
55+
Conservative
Labour
Graduate
No quals
Attitudes to Parliament’s vote on Brexit

GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE
EUROPEAN UNION
Handling Brexit
37
48
15
GOOD JOB BAD JOB DON’T KNOW

SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER THERESA MAY WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS
DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
37%
33%
33%
44%
53%
24%
29%
41%
48%
60%
48%
39%
27%
65%
59%
41%
All
18-34
35-54
55+
Conservative
Labour
Graduate
No quals
How well is the Government handling Brexit?

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
33
November 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - November 2016

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - November 2016