1. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential
IPSOS MORI
SCOTTISH
POLITICAL MONITOR

2. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential
VOTING
INTENTION

3. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public3
Voting Intention: November 2019
All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention
Conservative lead = +14SNP lead = +18
43%
25%
17%
10%
3%
1%
1%
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
Green
Brexit
Other
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: 1,032 Scottish adults 18+, 19-25 November 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections and registered to vote (868). Margin of
error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the
true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party
lead figures.
How do you intend to vote in the general election?
SNP lead = +18
44%
26%
16%
11%
2%
<1%
1%
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
Green Party
Brexit Party
Other

4. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | November 2019 | Public
VOTING
DECISIONS

5. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: Scottish adults 18+ who said they would vote for a party (716); SNP supporters (299); Conservative supporters (183); Labour supporters (83);
Lib Dem supporters (63); 19th-25th November 2019
Which party to vote for? % Definitely decided
% May change
mind
66%
73%
84%
84%
77%
34%
27%
16%
15%
23%
Among Lib Dem supporters
Among Labour supporters
Among Conservative
supporters
Among SNP supporters
Among all
% Definitely
decided
Have you definitely decided to vote for the ………. party or is there a chance you
may change your mind before you vote?

6. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); SNP supporters (339); Conservative supporters (219); Labour supporters (120);
Lib Dem supporters (94); 19th-25th November 2019
Tactical voting decisions: By party
64%
66%
71%
83%
72%
22%
19%
12%
6%
13%
Among Lib Dem supporters
Among Labour supporters
Among Conservative
supporters
Among SNP supporters
Among all
% party that most represents
own views
% vote to keep
another party out
Which of the following statements comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote for [party]?
‘It is the party that most represents your views’ or ‘The party you support has little chance of
winning so you vote for [party] to try to keep another party out’

7. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY LEADERS

8. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Boris Johnson Nicola Sturgeon The Scottish Government
Satisfaction with leaders and the Scottish Government
8
48%
4%
48%
48%
5%
46%
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Satisfied
Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1,046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country/doing his/her job…
as Prime Minister/First Minister?
74%
4%
22%
NET= 0NET= -52 NET=- 2

9. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Nicola Sturgeon Jackson Carlaw Jeremy CorbynRichard Leonard
Satisfaction with party leaders
9
43%
39%
18%
50%
33%
17%
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Satisfied
22%
9%
69%
Willie Rennie
38%
31%
31%
Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1.046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is doing his/her job…
as First Minister of Scotland/ interim leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party/ leader of the
Scottish Labour Party/ the Scottish Liberal Democrats/ the UK Labour Party/ the UK Liberal Democrat
Party?
Jo Swinson
48%
25%
27%
48%
4%
48%
NET= 0 NET= -25 NET= -33 NET= -7 NET= -47 NET=-21

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KEY ISSUES

11. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Which issues will
help decide your
vote?
Looking ahead to the General
Election, which, if any, issues do
you think will be very important
to you in helping you decide
which party to vote for?
Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); 19-25 November 2019
11
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
6%
6%
6%
7%
7%
8%
24%
34%
44%
56%
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
Taxation
Managing the economy/economic situation
Immigration
Protecting the environment/climate change
Education/schools
Scottish independence/devolution
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
Europe/EU/Brexit

12. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Which issues will help decide your vote?
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to
you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
12
10%
20%
31%
33%
72%
Taxation
Education
Independence
NHS
Brexit
6%
22%
45%
46%
55%
Environment*
(5=)
Education
NHS
Independence
Brexit
17%
20%
32%
39%
67%
Independence
Benefits
Education
Brexit
NHS
Among all
Among Conservative Party supporters Among Labour Party supporters
Among SNP supporters
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); SNP supporters (339); Conservative supporters (219); Labour supporters (120), 19-25 November 2019
8%
24%
34%
44%
56%
Environment
Education
Independence
NHS
Brexit
*Both environment and immigration are mentioned by 6% of SNP supporters

13. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Influence of Brexit vs Scottish independence on voting intention
13
12%
24%
24%
37%
Neither
Scottish
independence
Brexit
Both
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Regardless of whether you support or oppose Brexit or Scottish independence, which of these has
more influence on what party you think you will vote for in the general election?
Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); 19-25 November 2019

14. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | November 2019 | Public
FUTURE OF
THE UNION

15. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Do you support or oppose a second referendum on Scottish independence being held
within the next year?
33%
9%
6%
7%
43%
Strongly support
Tend to support
Neither support nor oppose
Tend to oppose
Strongly oppose
SUPPORT:
42%
Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1.046),19-25 November 2019
Indyref 2 next year?
OPPOSE:
50%

16. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Support for independence?
If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland's constitutional future, how would you vote
in response to the following question:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
48%
48%
4%
Yes
No
Undecided
All likely to vote
50%50%
Yes
No
All likely to vote and expressing a voting
intention
Base: Scottish adults 16+ likely to vote in an independence referendum (915); Scottish adults 16+ likely to vote and expressing a voting intention (897); 19th – 25th
November 2019

17. Technical note
Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of
1,046 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were
conducted by telephone: 19 – 25 November 2019. Data are
weighted by age, sex, region, social grade, working status,
tenure, education and country of birth to match the profile of
the population.
Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to
computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories,
or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less
than half a per cent.
Questions are asked of the total sample of n=1,046 unless
otherwise stated.

18. Ipsos MORI
Scottish Political Monitor 2019
For more information
Emily Gray
Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
Emily.Gray@ipsos.com