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Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor - February 2016

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As May’s Scottish Parliament election looms large, our new poll for STV News suggests that the SNP remains on course for victory with the party still significantly ahead.

Among those likely to vote, 53% would cast their constituency vote for the SNP (up three points from November 2015), while 20% would vote for Scottish Labour (no change). Support for the Scottish Conservatives has fallen by two points to 16% with the Scottish Liberal Democrats on 6% (down one point).

Publié dans : Actualités & Politique
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Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor - February 2016

  1. 1. February 2016 SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR
  2. 2. VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3 Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Constituency) Base: All giving a voting intention = 888 . All likely to vote = 708 Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016 HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 52% 22% 15% 7% 4% All giving a voting intention All likely to vote SNP lead +30 SNP lead +33 SNP LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LIB DEM OTHER 53% 20% 16% 6% 4%
  4. 4. 4 Holyrood- Constituency vote trend IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE? Base: All certain/likely to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
  5. 5. 5 Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Party List) HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR SECOND VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 49% 21% 14% 8% 6%2% All giving a voting intention All likely to vote SNP lead +28 SNP lead +30 SNP LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LIB DEM GREEN OTHER 49% 19% 15% 8% 6%2% Base: All giving a voting intention = 887 . All likely to vote = 708 Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016
  6. 6. SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7 DAVID CAMERON NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY -2% swing from November 0% swing from November -10% swing from November -38 Net +39 Net +9% Net SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 66% SATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 66% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 36% Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister and Deputy First Minister Base: 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016 Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/ HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER 0 -100 +100 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
  8. 8. 8 KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE JEREMY CORBYN +1% swing from November -6% swing from November -1% swing from November -5% swing from November +5 Net +8 Net -4 Net +19 Net -13 Net SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 41% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 20% DISSATISFIED 47% Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY? 0 -100 +100 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Base: 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016 Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
  9. 9. 9 Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES? Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron Nicola Sturgeon Kezia Dugdale John Swinney Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
  10. 10. THE EUROPEAN UNION
  11. 11. 11 -3% +4% -1% EU Referendum: Should the UK remain a member of the EU? SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION? Base: 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor. Changes compared to November 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI SCOTLAND REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW 26% 62% 12% GB 36% 9% -3% +4% -1% 55% Base: 513 British adults 18+, 23rd-29th January 2016. Source Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Changes compared to December 2015
  12. 12. 12 Have voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017. Source: Ipsos MORI February 2016 DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW 62% 36% 2% HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? Base: All giving an opinion (878), 1st – 7th February 2016
  13. 13. 13 Have voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017. Source: Ipsos MORI DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW 65% 33% 2% HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? 54% 44% 1% Remain a member of EU Leave EU Base: All saying that they would vote to remain in the EU (618) Base: All saying that they would vote to leave the EU (260) Base: All who would vote to remain in the EU (618); All who would vote to leave the EU (260), 1st – 7th February 2016
  14. 14. SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
  15. 15. 15 #IndyRef2 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor And if there was a referendum on Scottish Independence held tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” I WOULD VOTE ‘YES’ I WOULD VOTE ‘NO’ UNDECIDED 49% 5% Imagine the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU in the referendum when voters in Scotland vote to remain in the EU. If this led to another Scottish Independence referendum being held, how would you vote in response to the question ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’? 39% 7% 54% Base: 1,000Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016 45%
  16. 16. 16 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 30% 10%54% 7% Scottish Rate of Income Tax INCOME TAX RAISED BY 1P IN POUND INCOME TAX LOWERED BY 1P IN POUND INCOME TAX KEPT THE SAME AS IT IS DON’T KNOW AS YOU MAY KNOW, NEW INCOME TAX RATES SET BY THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT COME INTO EFFECT IN SCOTLAND FROM APRIL THIS YEAR. A DECISION TO INCREASE OR LOWER THE RATE OF INCOME TAX WILL APPLY TO TAXPAYERS WHO PAY THE BASIC RATE OF INCOME TAX AND THOSE WHO PAY HIGHER RATES. WHICH OF THESE COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW? Base: All from 2nd – 7th February 2016 (933)
  17. 17. NUCLEAR WEAPONS
  18. 18. 18 Nuclear weapons COULD YOU PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE FOLLOWING POLICY? Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Get rid of all nuclear weapons in Britain. SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW 22% 51% 9% Get rid of all nuclear weapons in Britain, even if other countries keep theirs. 46% 10% 44% Base: 495 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016. Base: 505 Scottish adults 16+, 1st – 7th February 2016 40%
  19. 19. 19 Technical details This presents the topline results from Scotland. Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone Fieldwork dates: 1st – 7th February 2016. Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless otherwise stated. Contact us: Mark Diffley: mark.diffley@ipsos.com; 0131 220 5699

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