On 31 January 2017, Ipsos held a major debate where we dissected the momentous political events of 2016 and looked forward to key elections in 2017. Our high profile pollsters from around the world examined political discontent and uncertainty, the key forces that are driving it and where in the world it is most prevalent and why. The panel included experts on the political context and public opinion in Britain, France, Italy, the US, Canada and South Africa, providing a wide range of perspectives on the key political challenges of our time.

1. POWER TO
THE PEOPLE?
BEYOND
POPULISM
#ipsosmorilive

2. 2 © 2015 Ipsos.
Agenda
Darrell Bricker
Global CEO Public Affairs, Ipsos Canada
6
Nando Pagnoncelli
President, Ipsos Italy
5
Mari Harris
Director & Political Analyst, Ipsos S.A.
Henri Wallard
Global Chairman Public Affairs, Ipsos France
4
Ben Page
CEO, Ipsos MORI UK
3
Cliff Young
President Public Affairs, Ipsos U.S.

3. CLIFF
YOUNG
PRESIDENT,
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
IPSOS U.S.
 @CliffAYoung

4. NEW POLITICAL
SUPERCYCLE

5. 5 © 2015 Ipsos.
Belief in a broken system….
Society is broken/in decline 57%
Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 68%
Feel like a stranger in my country 38%
Need a strong leader to take it back from the rich and powerful 64%
Confidence in institutions….
Political Parties 14%
The Media 27%

6. 6 © 2015 Ipsos.
Emergent belief system in
Trumpian America

7. 7 © 2015 Ipsos.
NATIVISM
45
45
70
72
56
55
When jobs are scarce, employers
should prioritize hiring people of
this country over…
More and more, I don't identify
with what America has become
SYSTEMIS
BROKEN
All Republicans Democrats
Source: Ipsos Polls, Sept 2015 & Jan 2016
Nativism & System is Broken: in US
82
71
56
68
70
69
In America today, the rich are
getting richer and the poor are
getting poorer
Traditional parties and politicians
don’t care about people like me

8. 8 © 2015 Ipsos.
Nativism Increasingly Driving
Identification as Republican
Identify as
Republican
American Dream
Anti-Big Government
Anti-Abortion
System is broken
Worse off than parents
Fear of Others
Nativism/
Anti-Immigrant
Authoritarianism

9. 9 © 2015 Ipsos.
Nativism vs. System is Broken:
Global Context
Argentina
Australia
BelgiumBrazil
Canada
France
Germany
Hungary
India
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Poland
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Great Britain
US
Israel
Peru
SystemisBroken
Nativism

10. 10 © 2015 Ipsos.
Key Drivers:
Nativism +
System is
Broken
13
17
19
23
26
27
28
30
30
31
34
36
36
40
40
41
41
43
45
48
50
South Africa
Mexico
Sweden
India
Japan
Australia
Israel
Turkey
Italy
Germany
South Korea
All countries
Belgium
Poland
Brazil
Canada
Great Britain
Argentina
US
Spain
France
Relative importance
explained

11. MARI
HARRIS
DIRECTOR &
POLITICAL ANALYST
IPSOS S.A.

12. 12 © 2015 Ipsos.12
The Pulse of
the People
Beyond Populism:

13. 13 © 2015 Ipsos.13 © 2017 Ipsos.
In South Africa there was a surge in populism
and populist politics since 2007 when Jacob Zuma
became ANC leader – and especially since he
became president in May 2009.

14. 14 © 2015 Ipsos.14 © 2017 Ipsos.
This became more pronounced when the EFF was formed
in 2013, the two populist parties now clashed head-on in
Parliament.

15. 15 © 2015 Ipsos.
0
20
40
60
80
100 May'09
Nov'09
May'10
Nov'10
May'11
Nov'11
May'12
Nov'12
May'13
Nov'13
May'14
Nov'14
May'15
Nov'15
May'16
Nov'16
* Khayabus May 2009 - Dec 2016, F2F interviews, nationally representative
WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE COUNTRY IS GOING IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION OR IN THE WRONG DIRECTION?*
%
RIGHT WRONG

16. 16 © 2015 Ipsos.
0% 100%
53% say the country is going in the wrong direction
(general public)*
0% 100%
The SA society is broken / in decline 77% (elites)**
*Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative
**This is the highest in the world. World average 57% (Global @visor)

17. 17 © 2015 Ipsos.
62.15
22.23
6.35
9.27
53.91
26.9
8.19
11
5
22
10
54
63
26
8
12
MEASURING POLITICAL PARTY SUPPORT IN THE MIDST OF
POPULIST POLITICS…. AN ART AND A SCIENCE*
NATIONAL ELECTION 2014 % LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION 2016 %
17 © 2017 Ipsos.
OTHER
PARTIES
TOGETHER
OTHER
PARTIES
TOGETHER
IPSOS PREDICTION % ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS %
*Khayabus, May 2014 , August 2016

18. 18 © 2015 Ipsos.
40%
46%
40%
62%
40% “There is no political party
that represent my views”
62% says that
President Zuma
is NOT doing his
job well
46% says the National Government
is not doing their job well
40% says Deputy President
Cyril Ramaphosa is not
doing his job well
Trust in leadership is lacking*
18 © 2017 Ipsos.
* Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative

19. 19 © 2015 Ipsos.
DO NOT believe we need
a strong leader
DO NOT think politicians
should say what is on
their minds regardless of
anyone else
Believe globalisation is an
opportunity
AND 78% believe that we can recover
But

20. 20 © 2015 Ipsos.20 © 2017 Ipsos.
Looking at the current mood in SA, civil society and other
indicators, we are moving towards “post-populism” and are
focusing on “truth”!
Many countries need to come to terms with “post–truth”,
populist politicians & populism in society….

21. BEN
PAGE
CEO
IPSOS MORI UK
 @benatipsosmori

22. Was Brexit
Populism?

23. 23 © 2015 Ipsos.
Smells like populism….
NEW POLITICAL ACTOR
TURNOUT
HIGHER IN LEAVE
AREAS – AND
2015 NON-
VOTERS SWUNG
LEAVE BY 3:2
DISTRUST OF EXPERTS/
CULTURAL DIVIDE
Link between museum
attendance and Remain vote
Source: Dr Mark Taylor, Sheffield Methods
Institute
Photo source: By Euro Realist Newsletter - flickr.com, CC BY 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7670040

24. 24 © 2015 Ipsos.
But if Brexit = populism then
populism includes some pretty
mainstream opinions….

25. 25 © 2015 Ipsos.
Anti-Europeanism embedded for a long time
The UK has
not
benefited
from being
part of the
European
Union
Source: Eurobarometer
1983
56%
2011
54%

26. 26 © 2015 Ipsos.
And while immigration especially important to
UKIP – all voters are worried about it
4,002 British adults 18+ online, 14-25 April 2016
54 64 55
93
0
20
40
60
80
100
Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP
% dissatisfied with the way the current govt is dealing with
immigration

27. 27 © 2015 Ipsos.
It lets the failures of the
remain campaign off the hook
• Only 3 in 10 thought Brexit would
harm their standard of living
• Leave messages much more
believed

28. 28Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
• Brits mid-table on most ‘populism’
measures
• And actually more in favour of foreign
trade than most
• Still looks like the Conservatives – not
UKIP – most likely to be the winners in
2020 (and little sign of a Labour populist
surge either….)
In international terms, we
remain more shopkeepers
than revolutionaries…

29. HENRI
WALLARD
GLOBAL
CHAIRMAN
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
IPSOS FRANCE
 @henriwallard

30. 30 © 2015 Ipsos.
Beyond populism
France

31. 31 © 2015 Ipsos.
Unemployment
ImmigrationConcerns
Authority
Decline Direction

32. 32 © 2015 Ipsos.
OF THE FRENCH THINK THAT THE
NEXT GENERATION WILL LIVE A
WORSE LIFE
Les 4500, Observatoire Ipsos des modes de vie et de consommation, France, 2016.
66%
Decline
The “Social lift” is
still not working

33. 33 © 2015 Ipsos.
Rejection of foreigners Immigration
87% of the French believe the number of immigrants has been increasing
over the last five years
• Only 11% consider this has had a positive impact
• 57% feel there are too many immigrants in the country
• 67 % think there are terrorists among the immigrants
• 54 % believe that most of the people who declare themselves as refugees are not
really refugees
• 63% think that refugees will not be successfully integrated
A Global @dvisory – June 2016 – G@ “Immigration”

34. 34 © 2015 Ipsos.
A TRUE LEADER IS NEEDED TO
BRING BACK SOME ORDER
Authority
AUTHORITY AS A VALUE IS
TOO OFTEN CRITICISED
88%
87%
Authority

35. 35 © 2015 Ipsos.
“THEY'RE ALL
ROTTEN”
Populism Vs. Elitism

36. 36 © 2015 Ipsos.
OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT MOST
POLITICIANS ARE CORRUPT
OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT
POLITICIANS
DO NOT CARE WHAT PEOPLE
THINK
88% OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT
POLITICIANS ACT MAINLY
FOR THEIR OWN PERSONAL
INTERESTS
89%
Declinism
OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT FRANCE
IS IN DECLINE
86%
Crisis of authority
& exemplary behaviour
MistrustInternet turning into
counter-information
77%
OF FRENCH PEOPLE NOT TRUST THE MEDIA
Fuelling Populism
“The
system is
broken”
75 %

37. 37 © 2015 Ipsos.
2017 and later ?

38. NANDO
PAGNONCELLI
PRESIDENT
IPSOS ITALY
 @NPagnoncelli

39. 39 © 2015 Ipsos.
POWER TO THE PEOPLE?
Beyond Populism

40. 40 © 2015 Ipsos.
BACK TO THE FUTURE?
THE EARLY SIGNS
SCENARIO: A POLITICAL CRISIS (corruption,
bribes)
• A media tycoon, he claims his extraneousness
from the political world, with its rites and its
flaws
• He enters the political arena motivated by a
sense of responsibility
• Primacy to the people has to be restored
• The people’s spokeperson, speaks a plain
language
• Unites a social block
Ring a bell?
1994, SILVIO BERLUSCONI

41. 41 © 2015 Ipsos.
41
• Crisis
• Tycoon
• Sense of responsibility
• Primacy to the people
• Speaks a plain language
• Unites a social block

42. 42 © 2015 Ipsos.
© 2015 Ipsos.42
• Crisis
• Comedian
• Sense of responsibility
• Primacy to the people
(in the internet)
• Speaks a plain language
• Unites a social block

43. AGAINST

44. 44 © 2015 Ipsos.
GIACHETTI
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
RAGGI
5STARS MOVEMENT
67,1%
32,9%
A rift opens
AGAINST THE POWERS

45. 45 © 2015 Ipsos.© 2017 Ipsos
SALZBURG
LINZ
WIEN
GRAZ
KLAGENFURT
INNSBRUCK
This is not only about Italy
AGAINST THE POWERS

46. 46 © 2015 Ipsos.
EDINBURGH
MANCHESTER
LONDON
BIRMINGHAM
CARDIFF
BELFAST
LIVERPOOL
50% 80%
LEAVE
REMAIN
This is not only about Italy
AGAINST THE POWERS

47. 49%
85%
65%
65%
64%
60%
57%
56%
56%
55%
54%
51%
50%
49%
44%
43%
43%
41%
40%
35%
33%
31%
12%
Totale
Turchia
Italia
Sud Africa
Russia
Belgio
Francia
Arabia Saudita
India
Ungheria
Argentina
Stati Uniti
Germania
Gran Bretagna
Australia
Svezia
Messico
Canada
Spagna
Brasile
Polonia
Sud Korea
Giappone
strongly + fairly agree
“There are too many immigrants in our Country”
44%
79%
67%
65%
63%
62%
62%
60%
60%
56%
56%
53%
53%
47%
46%
45%
41%
36%
34%
31%
31%
30%
29%
23%
22%
22%
20%
11%
8%
EU28
EL
BG
IT
SI
HR
CY
ES
RO
LT
HU
FR
SK
PT
LV
CZ
EE
PL
AT
BE
MT
UK
DE
IE
NL
FI
SE
LU
DK
“Satisfied with the way democracy works in your Country?
Source : Global @dvisor Source: Eurobarometer
IMMIGRATION AND POLITICS: worries transformed into success factors
% not satisfied

48. 48 © 2015 Ipsos.
Enemies, audience and keywords
AGAINST THE SYSTEM
The ENEMIES
Euro and EU
Finance, Banks
Experts
DIRECT DEMOCRACY
INTERNET
SOVEREIGNTY
The
AUDIENCE
SME’s,
artisans,
workers,
unemployed
POLITICIANSIMMIGRANTS
IMMIGRATION
ITALIANS FIRST CORRUPTION

49. 49 © 2015 Ipsos.
The Excluded: the electors profile of Lega and M5S
AGAINST THE SYSTEM
Young and adultsAdults
Workers and self-
employed
Unemployed,
students
Workers and self-
employed
Medium – lower
educated
Medium – lower
educated
Small towns
inhabitants
Men

50. 50 © 2015 Ipsos.
Source: Ipsos
57
52
48
47
45
43
38
Senators number cut: 315 to
100
Closure of National Economy
& Labour Counsel
Limitation of Senate powers
Change in the rules of
referendums
Elimination of Provinces
Combined legislative powers
Gov and Regions
Elections of Senators
4041424342
27-Oct-1620-Oct-1613-Oct-1606-Oct-1629-Sep-16
The issues at stake in the Italian referendum
FOR OR AGAINST THE CHANGE?
% agreeISSUES OVERALL

51. 51 © 2015 Ipsos.
What was the Italian referendum really about?
FOR OR AGAINST ME!
YES 40,9% NO 59,1%

52. 52 © 2015 Ipsos.
One question

53. 53 © 2015 Ipsos.
Who’s the populist, now?
BEYOND POPULISM
“The CEO of Goldman Sachs let his employees know
that he’d be just fine with either Bush or Clinton.
Well, I’ve got news for the bullies of Wall Street. The
presidency is not a crown to be passed back and forth
by you between two royal families.”
Do not ask politicians to cut
their budgets. Do it yourself.
Vote YES ! WE WILL SAVE
500 MILLION € PER YEAR

54. DARRELL
BRICKER
GLOBAL CEO
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
IPSOS CANADA
 @darrellbricker

55. 55 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE VIEW FROM CANADA:
FINAL THOUGHTS

56. 56 © 2015 Ipsos. 56

57. 57 © 2015 Ipsos.

58. 58 © 2015 Ipsos.
The Canadian Exception?
• Canadians value compromise and tolerance. How weak, young nation stays
together.
• Values have evolved over time – not specific to this current government or leader.
• These values not central to outcome of last election.
• “Great Economic Disruption” of 2008 missed Canada. Inequality issue less salient.
• Canada brings in most immigrants per capita. But, mostly economic, not
humanitarian. Nothing new.
• All drivers of disruption more muted. Not seeking radical political solutions.
• Confluence of events plus poor management could create Canadian version of
what is happening elsewhere. But, it will always be a Canadian version.

59. 59 © 2015 Ipsos.
There’s something
happening here.
What it is ain’t exactly
clear.
For What It’s Worth
Buffalo Springfield. 1967

60. 60 © 2015 Ipsos.
Populism

61. 61 © 2015 Ipsos.
What Does It Add Up To?
• More than populism – need a new term.
• Combination of forces - nativism, system
is broken, rejection of authority and
expertise, end of progress, leading to
disruptive elections and unexpected
political outcomes.
• Given universality of forces, setting up
for on-going period of political
uncertainty and instability.

62. 62 © 2015 Ipsos.
Some big tests ahead
• March: Netherlands
• May: France
• September: Germany
• By December: South Korea
• 2018 (or earlier): Italy

63. 63 © 2015 Ipsos.
All happy families are
alike; each unhappy
family is unhappy in
its own way.”
Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

64. #ipsosmorilive
Q&A

65. #ipsosmorilive
THANKS FOR
LISTENING!