1.
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Pullbacks in key industries soften the
labor market’s entry into 2016
U.S. employment situation: January 2016 February 5, 2016

2.
January 2016 employment summary
• 2016 began on a relatively soft note, with only 151,000 net new jobs created during the month. In comparison, the six-month average totals
214,500 new jobs. Revisions throughout 2015 resulted in a net increase of 85,000 jobs, bringing annual employment growth to 2.7 million
jobs. In order to maintain this level of growth, the national labor market will have to add an average of 234,900 new jobs every month for the
remainder of 2016.
• Hourly wage growth remains steady at 2.5 percent as inflation is flat and labor shortages, particularly for educated workers and in many metro
areas, are becoming more apparent. In spite of meaningful wage increases that should be leading to increased disposable income, however,
the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP has fallen in seasonally adjusted annual terms to 1.5 percent compared to the
2015 average of 1.8 percent.
• Unemployment fell to 4.9 percent in January, the first time that it recorded a sub-5.0 percent figure since 2008, while total unemployment
stayed put at 9.9 percent. This occurred even with a 10-basis-point increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.7 percent, the second
consecutive month of improvement for a metric that remains well below its historic norms.
• At the industry level, drastic contraction in temporary help services (-25,200 jobs) pulled professional and business services growth down to
just 9,000 net new jobs, while education and health services registered only 6,000 net new jobs due to pullbacks in the education subsector.
Transportation and warehousing also contracted, while mining and logging remains on a downward trend and the energy, mining and utilities
aggregate is falling by 7.0 percent per year.
• High-performing local markets continue to add jobs at a blistering pace, although their rates of growth have begun to ease somewhat. Silicon
Valley, which recorded job growth exceeding 5.0 percent in annual terms last month, currently rests at 4.4 percent, with tech hubs such as
San Francisco and Portland at 3.7 and 3.8 percent, respectively. At 3.0 and 2.9 percent, Atlanta and Dallas continue to witness the positive
effects of diverse corporate expansion and migration, as rapid employment growth is translating into demand for space, aided by structurally
high vacancy providing increased and more affordable options for tenants.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.
January 2016 labor market at a glance
+151,000
(64 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,665,000
(+1.9% y-o-y)
12-month change
+779,000
10-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.9%
Unemployment rate
-70bp
12-month change in unemployment
7.0%
10-year average unemployment
5,431,000
(+11.4% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,197,000
(+3.4% y-o-y)
Hires
2,831,000
(+6.3% y-o-y)
Quits

4.
2016 started off slow with 151,000 new jobs; revisions bring
2015 total to 2.7 million
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
221,000
265,000
84,000
251,000
273,000
228,000
277,000
150,000
149,000
295,000
280,000
262,000
151,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1-monthnetchange
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

5.
Continued job creation brought unemployment below 5.0
percent for the first time this cycle; stands at 4.9 percent
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5

6.
Job openings rose in November to 5.4 million and have
remained steady since mid-2015
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jobopenings(thousands)

7.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Consumerconfidenceindex
At 98.1 points, the consumer confidence index is up over the
month and once again nearing 100 points
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7

8.
Inflation continues to hover near 0 and is down by 0.1 percent
over the year as wages consistently grow by 2.5 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-month%change
Hourly wage growth CPI growth

9.
-25.2
-20.3
-7.0
-7.0
-5.0
-0.3
1.0
3.5
6.0
8.8
9.0
12.0
17.0
18.0
18.0
29.0
44.0
44.0
57.7
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Temporary help services
Transportation and warehousing
Mining and logging
Government
Other services
Utilities
Information
Motor vehicles and parts
Education and health services
Wholesale trade
Professional and business services
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Financial activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
1-month net change (thousands)
Contractions in temporary help services, transportation and
government dragged down overall growth; retail leads
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Manufacturing
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
86.6 percent of
monthly
growth.

10.
-133.0
-13.0
8.5
26.2
28.0
45.0
56.0
58.0
58.1
78.0
82.1
88.4
149.0
264.0
301.1
458.0
614.0
620.0
644.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Manufacturing
Other services
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Government
Temporary help services
Transportation and warehousing
Financial activities
Construction
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
Education and health
PBS
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Financial activities
Manufacturing
All other jobs
Despite setbacks in January, education and health remains the
leader in annual job creation, followed closely by PBS
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Core subsectors added 89.9 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.

11.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Unemploymentrate(%)
For the sixth consecutive month, bachelor’s degree
unemployment remains at natural low of 2.5 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11

12.
A 25,200-job contraction in temporary help services pulled
office-using growth down to its lowest level in years
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12

13.
Energy has now contracted by 7.0 percent annually, reaching
rates of contraction not seen since the recession
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2015.
13
12-month%change(jobs)

14.
The overall slowdown in job creation dropped tech growth to
6.0 percent; still triple the national rate
Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14

15.
Initial unemployment claims continue to hover around 275,000
per week, although slightly trending upward in early 2016
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average

16.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits ticked up, slightly, with the highest level of quits
(2.8 million) since the previous cycle
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

17.
Silicon Valley slows slightly to 4.4 percent; mid-sized Southern
and Western markets continue to display strong growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
Silicon Valley
4.4%
San
Francisco
3.7%
Charlotte
3.3%
Nashville
3.2%
Atlanta
3.0%
Salt Lake
City
3.0%
Seattle
3.0%
Portland
3.8%

18.
0.6%
0.8%
1.3%
1.7%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
3.7%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Chicago
Houston
Philadelphia
Boston
New York
Los Angeles
Washington, DC
South Florida
Dallas
Seattle
Atlanta
San Francisco
12-month % change
Most major markets are growing at around 2.2 percent; San
Francisco, Atlanta and Seattle see stand-out performance
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18

19.
Despite a 10-basis-point drop in the official unemployment
rate, total unemployment remains steady at 9.9 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19

20.
The labor force participation rate saw another 10-basis-point
increase in January to 62.7 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)

21.
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Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
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Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
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