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National employment
situation: May 2018
June 1, 2018
May 2018 U.S. labor market at a glance
2
+223,000
(91 consecutive months of growth)
1-month net change
+2,363,000
(+1.6% y-o-y)
12-month change
+939,000
10-year average annual growth
3.8%
Unemployment rate
6,550,000
(+16.8% y-o-y)
Job openings
-50bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.7%
Labor force participation rate
5,425,000
(+2.4% y-o-y)
Hires
3,344,000
(+6.4% y-o-y)
Quits
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
May job growth demonstrated unprecedented strength of the labor market at this point in the cycle
May’s 223,000 net new jobs represented the 91st consecutive month of growth, further extending an already unprecedented expansionary cycle. Given the
strength of recent jobs numbers at this point in the cycle, it is expected that the near-term will see similar levels of growth before demonstrating any signs of
cooling. As has been the case throughout 2018, the distribution of growth by sector has been relatively even; retail and construction are notably moving
upwards.
Without a meaningful increase in the rate of labor force expansion, job shortages will intensify
Since early 2017, the change in employment compared to the previous cycle has been higher than growth in the civilian labor force, leading to rapid declines in
unemployment, which now stands at just 3.8%. As a result, the labor market has entered a phase of severe job shortages, evidenced by a sharp boost in job
openings without similar gains in the rate of hiring. Despite these unfilled positions and intense competition for skilled employees, wage growth has only
moderately moved up to 2.7%, and disposable income growth is threatened by inflation accelerating to 2.5%.
Federal Reserve on track for continued tightening path
With the economy showing no meaningful signs of slowdown and inflation rising under the pressure of sustained output growth, the Federal Reserve is on track
to continue its program of tightening over the coming quarters. How much interest rate hikes will potentially cool the labor market and the broader economy
remains uncertain given the length of the current expansion.
May 2018 U.S. labor market highlights
3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1-monthnetchange223,000 net new jobs were created in May, bringing YTD
average monthly growth to 2015 levels
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
1-month net change Unemployment rate
Unemployment dropped by a further 10bp to 3.8% in May
as the labor force only modestly expands
5Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Jobopenings(thousands)Job openings jumped to a new high of more than 6.5
million in May, indicating strong demand for hiring
6Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
4.1%
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Construction
Trade, transportation and utilities
Other services
Financial activities
Information
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Job openings rate (%)
Shortages of professional, education, health and
leisure employees are pushing openings rates past 5%
7Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
Hires(thousands)Hiring is moving in a divergent direction from job
growth, stalling at ~5.4-5.5 million per month
8Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12-month%change
Wage growth Inflation
Wage growth rose to 2.7% in May, but inflation is also
catching up at a similar rate of increase
9Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.5%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.8%
3.2%
3.3%
5.6%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Manufacturing
Mining and logging
Professional and business services
Trade, transportation and utilities
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Construction
Information
Financial activities
12-month wage growth (%)
Outside of finance and information, the rate of wage
growth in most industries isn’t accelerating
10Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
+3.7%
Office-using
wage growth
+2.4%
Non-office-using
wage growth
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ChangesinceJanuary2007(%)
Civilian labor force Employed
Since 2017, employment growth has exceeded the labor
force, which will accelerate unemployment declines
11Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment growth
above
labor force growth
Employment growth
below
labor force growth
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)The labor force participation rate has yet to improve,
dropping for the third consecutive month to 62.7%
12Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1.1
4.0
4.2
5.0
6.0
8.0
13.0
18.0
18.7
21.0
25.0
31.0
31.1
39.0
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Utilities
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Government
Information
Financial activities
Other services
Manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Professional and business services
Retail trade
Education and health
1-month net change (thousands)
Retail trade continued its comeback in May, while
growth was equitably distributed across sectors
13Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-20.0
0.4
21.0
58.0
67.9
97.0
125.0
125.1
156.3
200.0
262.0
286.0
441.0
483.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Information
Utilities
Government
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Other services
Financial activities
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Education and health
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
Construction has risen to become the third-largest
contributor to annual job growth
14Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
483.0
441.0
262.0200.0
125.0
726.9
PBS Education and health
Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing
Financial activities Retail trade
All other jobs
Core subsectors added 69.2 percent of all
jobs over the past 12 months.
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12-monthnetchangeAlthough retail trade has a long way to go, annual
sector growth is now approaching 1%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%)Following the headline unemployment trend, bachelor’s
degree unemployment dropped to a new low of 2.0%
16Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Professional and business services Financial activities Information
Office-using job creation is uniformly steady, growing
at the same rate YTD as in 2017
17Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12-month%change
Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm
Growth trends for niche sectors are beginning to
normalize at new, cooler levels
18Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Initialunemploymentclaimsperweek
Intial weekly claims 4-week moving average
Initial unemployment claims have risen slightly in
recent weeks, but remain at record lows
19Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ConsumerconfidenceindexConsumer confidence increased in May, and
throughout 2018 has stayed highly optimistic
20Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
GrowthsinceJanuary2010(%)Gains in consumer confidence this cycle far outpace the
increase in consumer spending
21Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Conference Board – data has one-month delay
+126.7%
Consumer confidence
Growth since 2010 (%)
+22.9%
Personal consumption
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
12-month%change
Total unemployment 10-year average
Total unemployment is now firmly below its pre-
recession low at 7.6%
22Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
© 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
Phil Ryan
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
212 292 8040

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June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook

  • 2. May 2018 U.S. labor market at a glance 2 +223,000 (91 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,363,000 (+1.6% y-o-y) 12-month change +939,000 10-year average annual growth 3.8% Unemployment rate 6,550,000 (+16.8% y-o-y) Job openings -50bp 12-month change in unemployment 62.7% Labor force participation rate 5,425,000 (+2.4% y-o-y) Hires 3,344,000 (+6.4% y-o-y) Quits Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 3. May job growth demonstrated unprecedented strength of the labor market at this point in the cycle May’s 223,000 net new jobs represented the 91st consecutive month of growth, further extending an already unprecedented expansionary cycle. Given the strength of recent jobs numbers at this point in the cycle, it is expected that the near-term will see similar levels of growth before demonstrating any signs of cooling. As has been the case throughout 2018, the distribution of growth by sector has been relatively even; retail and construction are notably moving upwards. Without a meaningful increase in the rate of labor force expansion, job shortages will intensify Since early 2017, the change in employment compared to the previous cycle has been higher than growth in the civilian labor force, leading to rapid declines in unemployment, which now stands at just 3.8%. As a result, the labor market has entered a phase of severe job shortages, evidenced by a sharp boost in job openings without similar gains in the rate of hiring. Despite these unfilled positions and intense competition for skilled employees, wage growth has only moderately moved up to 2.7%, and disposable income growth is threatened by inflation accelerating to 2.5%. Federal Reserve on track for continued tightening path With the economy showing no meaningful signs of slowdown and inflation rising under the pressure of sustained output growth, the Federal Reserve is on track to continue its program of tightening over the coming quarters. How much interest rate hikes will potentially cool the labor market and the broader economy remains uncertain given the length of the current expansion. May 2018 U.S. labor market highlights 3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 4. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1-monthnetchange223,000 net new jobs were created in May, bringing YTD average monthly growth to 2015 levels Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
  • 5. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) 1-month net change Unemployment rate Unemployment dropped by a further 10bp to 3.8% in May as the labor force only modestly expands 5Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 6. 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Jobopenings(thousands)Job openings jumped to a new high of more than 6.5 million in May, indicating strong demand for hiring 6Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 7. 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Mining and logging Manufacturing Construction Trade, transportation and utilities Other services Financial activities Information Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Education and health Job openings rate (%) Shortages of professional, education, health and leisure employees are pushing openings rates past 5% 7Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 8. 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 Hires(thousands)Hiring is moving in a divergent direction from job growth, stalling at ~5.4-5.5 million per month 8Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 9. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-month%change Wage growth Inflation Wage growth rose to 2.7% in May, but inflation is also catching up at a similar rate of increase 9Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 10. 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 3.3% 5.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Manufacturing Mining and logging Professional and business services Trade, transportation and utilities Education and health Leisure and hospitality Other services Construction Information Financial activities 12-month wage growth (%) Outside of finance and information, the rate of wage growth in most industries isn’t accelerating 10Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics +3.7% Office-using wage growth +2.4% Non-office-using wage growth
  • 11. -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ChangesinceJanuary2007(%) Civilian labor force Employed Since 2017, employment growth has exceeded the labor force, which will accelerate unemployment declines 11Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment growth above labor force growth Employment growth below labor force growth
  • 12. 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)The labor force participation rate has yet to improve, dropping for the third consecutive month to 62.7% 12Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 13. -1.1 4.0 4.2 5.0 6.0 8.0 13.0 18.0 18.7 21.0 25.0 31.0 31.1 39.0 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Utilities Mining and logging Wholesale trade Government Information Financial activities Other services Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Leisure and hospitality Construction Professional and business services Retail trade Education and health 1-month net change (thousands) Retail trade continued its comeback in May, while growth was equitably distributed across sectors 13Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 14. -20.0 0.4 21.0 58.0 67.9 97.0 125.0 125.1 156.3 200.0 262.0 286.0 441.0 483.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Information Utilities Government Mining and logging Wholesale trade Other services Financial activities Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Construction Education and health Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) Construction has risen to become the third-largest contributor to annual job growth 14Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 483.0 441.0 262.0200.0 125.0 726.9 PBS Education and health Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Financial activities Retail trade All other jobs Core subsectors added 69.2 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  • 15. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-monthnetchangeAlthough retail trade has a long way to go, annual sector growth is now approaching 1% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
  • 16. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%)Following the headline unemployment trend, bachelor’s degree unemployment dropped to a new low of 2.0% 16Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 17. -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Professional and business services Financial activities Information Office-using job creation is uniformly steady, growing at the same rate YTD as in 2017 17Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 18. -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-month%change Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm Growth trends for niche sectors are beginning to normalize at new, cooler levels 18Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 19. 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Initialunemploymentclaimsperweek Intial weekly claims 4-week moving average Initial unemployment claims have risen slightly in recent weeks, but remain at record lows 19Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
  • 20. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ConsumerconfidenceindexConsumer confidence increased in May, and throughout 2018 has stayed highly optimistic 20Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
  • 21. -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% GrowthsinceJanuary2010(%)Gains in consumer confidence this cycle far outpace the increase in consumer spending 21Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Conference Board – data has one-month delay +126.7% Consumer confidence Growth since 2010 (%) +22.9% Personal consumption
  • 22. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 12-month%change Total unemployment 10-year average Total unemployment is now firmly below its pre- recession low at 7.6% 22Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 23. © 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. 23 Phil Ryan Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com 212 292 8040