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Conférence de Jancovici à l'Espci 19 novembre 2015 (présentation)

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Présentation utilisée lors de la conférence du 19 Novembre 2015 à l'ESCPI
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Conférence de Jancovici à l'Espci 19 novembre 2015 (présentation)

  1. 1. manicore.com De Daech à la COP 21 Jean-Marc Jancovici jmj@manicore.com jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com jean-marc.jancovici@theshiftproject.org ESPCI 19 novembre 2015
  2. 2. www.manicore.com Il y a un lien assez fort entre énergie & changement climatique et les troubles actuels liés à la Syrie Il y a un lien assez fort entre le pétrole et le marasme économique actuel En « business as usual », rien de tout cela ne va s’arranger Il n’empêche : vous avez intérêt à vous occuper du problème (moi aussi), sinon le problème risque fort de s’occuper de vous Commençons par les conclusions, des fois que
  3. 3. www.manicore.com Pour tout le monde, le changement climatique c’est cela Variation passée et projections de température moyenne en fonction du scénario. Source : IPCC, 5è rapport d’évaluation, 2013
  4. 4. www.manicore.com Moyenne inter-modèles de l’évolution des précipitations pour une hausse de 2°C de la moyenne par rapport à 1980-2010. Source : GIEC, 5è rapport d’évaluation, 2014 Mais un climat, ce n’est pas juste une température moyenne
  5. 5. www.manicore.com Évolution constatée des précipitations sur la période 1951-2010. Source : IPCC, 5è rapport d’évaluation, 2013 Un changement déjà décelable ?
  6. 6. www.manicore.com Écart à la normale des précipitations d’hiver Est-ce que ceci aurait un rapport avec cela ?
  7. 7. www.manicore.com Production de céréales et population en Syrie depuis 1960. Données World Bank. En Syrie comme ailleurs, il faut manger
  8. 8. www.manicore.com Indice des prix alimentaires de la FAO. Et si les importations valent plus cher, la nourriture vaut plus cher
  9. 9. www.manicore.com Production de pétrole en Syrie en volume. Source BP Statistical Review. Pour importer, il faut exporter
  10. 10. Dès qu'il y a un stock de départ donné une fois pour toute (hydrocarbures, minerais…) Une extraction annuelle indéfiniment croissante est impossible Même une extraction annuelle indéfiniment constante est impossible (sinon stock infini !) Il se démontre qu'en pareil cas l'extraction annuelle : Est nulle à -∞ Est nulle à +∞ Passe par un maximum absolu entre les 2 Les maths, c’est décidément détestable…
  11. 11. www.manicore.com C’est la grosse bête qui descend, qui descend…
  12. 12. www.manicore.com Il y a pétrole et pétrole Production mondiale de liquides décomposée par catégorie depuis 1900. Données non publiques. Produit des carburants Ethane, propane, butane Essences naturelles (quoi que)
  13. 13. www.manicore.com Sécurité d’approvisionnement ? Quelle sécurité ? Consommation d’énergie dans l’OCDE depuis 1965. Données BP Statistical Review, 2015
  14. 14. www.manicore.com Sécurité d’approvisionnement ? Quelle sécurité ? Consommation d’énergie dans l’OCDEdepuis 1965. Données BP Statistical Review, 2015
  15. 15. www.manicore.com Redémarrage de l’industrie ? Quel redémarrage ? Production industrielle dans l’OCDE depuis 1965. Données BP Statistical Review, 2015
  16. 16. www.manicore.com Egypte = 1er importateur de blé au monde. Pas de touristes+inflation alimentaire = émeutes de la faim Tunisie = importe la moitié de ses céréales. Pas de touristes + inflation alimentaire = émeutes de la faim Maroc = autosuffisant sur le plan alimentaire. Pas (peu) de problèmes. Algérie = gaz et pétrole en quantité pour l’export. Pas (peu) de problèmes. Et les autres ?
  17. 17. www.manicore.com Énergie utilisée par les hommes depuis 1860. Jancovici, sur données diverses Les émissions viennent bien de quelque part Fossiles!
  18. 18. www.manicore.com Surplus de consommation mondiale par énergie entre 2000 et 2014. Jancovici, sur données BP Statistical Review 2015 & divers En route vers le tout renouvelable ! De 2000 à 2014, le charbon a augmenté 35 fois plus que le solaire, et 10 fois plus que l’éolien !
  19. 19. www.manicore.com OCDE cherche mines et barils, désespérément Taux de croissance de l’approvisionnement énergétique de la zone OCDE depuis 1965. Données BP Statistical review
  20. 20. www.manicore.com OCDE cherche croissance, désespérément Taux de croissance du PIB de la zone OCDE sur la période 1960-2014 (bleu), de la moyenne sur la période (rouge), de la tendance passée (bleu plein), et de la prolongation de la tendance (pointillé). Données World Bank
  21. 21. www.manicore.com Répartition de la consommation d'énergie finale en France en 2012. Source Carbone 4, 2013, d’après SOeS, Ceren, SBCU, RTE La France, pays « tout nucléaire » ? 65 Mds $ importés par an – 64% du CO2 16 Mds $ importés par an – 24% du CO2 1,5 Md $ import/an – 12% du CO2 1 Md $ U importé – 0 CO2
  22. 22. www.manicore.com Moyenne  +5°C Source: Quaternary Environments Network 5°C, juste un pull en moins ? L’Europe actuelleL’Europe il y a 20.000 ans 3 km d’épaisseur Sec et froid≈ 100.000 h
  23. 23. www.manicore.com With a magnitude that will depend on our emissions Atteinte aux écosystèmes Agents pathogènes Vagues de chaleur Un jour, l’avenir devient le présent Baisse des rendements agricoles Hausse du niveau de l’océan Acidification de l’océan
  24. 24. www.manicore.com Et nous ne verrons jamais venir à l’avance toutes les conséquences possibles, puisque l’expérience est inédite Relargage du carbone des sols Fonte/désagrégation des calottes Avec une ampleur qui dépendra de nos émissions Partez pas, y’a du rab Changement de la circulation océanique Intensification des phénomènes extrêmes Conséquences sanitaires
  25. 25. www.manicore.com Et si on ne veut pas ? Élévation de température en 2100 en fonction du cumul émis depuis 1870. IPCC, 2015 2015 Emissions cumulées de CO2 depuis 1870 en Gt
  26. 26. www.manicore.com Si nous voulons faire baisser les émissions, il faut savoir où elles sont Breakdown of world GHG emissions in 2014. Jancovici, on various data. Centrales à charbon Centrales électriques gaz/oil Ciment Reste de l’industrieBâtiments ≈ 2%≈ 3%≈ 4%≈ 4% Agriculture Déforestation Autres Transports
  27. 27. www.manicore.com CnHp O2 CO2 Structure actuelle des métiers, loisirs et vacances, études longues, santé, retraites, mondialisation, concentration urbaine et banlieues étalées… Crac ? Boum ? Gratuit !! = PIB L’ère du feu, croissance à gogo et 2 questions… Minerais, sols, ressources vivantes… (gratuits aussi)
  28. 28. www.manicore.com Des questions ?

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