Contenu connexe Similaire à Meetings In 2020 V5.1 Feb 2007 Similaire à Meetings In 2020 V5.1 Feb 2007 (20) Meetings In 2020 V5.1 Feb 20071. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Meetings in 2020 John Parkinson Chairman & Managing Director ParkWood Advisors LLC Sydney, February 2007 3. How we got here: Scenarios revisited “ It may not be possible to predict the future but it is certainly possible to invent it” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 4. Predicting the future is hard….. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 5. … ..but building scenarios can help. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved “ Process” “ Algorithm” “ Locus” “ Society” What kinds of new things can we model or compute or connect? What new kinds of locations are accessible or connections possible? How does this change what we can do? How does this change how we work and live? “ Weak signals” Feedback loops What emergent trends should we track? “ Expectation” What issues and ideas illuminate, motivate and constrain the aspirations of societies groups and individuals (constructed via scenario analysis) “ Devices” What new kinds of products or capabilities are coming to market? 7. Leveraging automation “ Of course you can’t have everything – where would you keep it all?” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 11. New capabilities change behavior in unpredictable ways Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Mainstream Collaboration time The “new” Minicomputers Shared digital documents All-in-one & PROFS Basic email Fax PC & LAN Email & Voicemail Spreadsheets Word processing ISDN & basic VTC Cell Phones Internet 2.5G Cell Phones IM & Advanced Messaging PowerPoint & Rich media P2P Wi-Fi Converged IP Networks Blackberry & UMTS Immersive Presence Agents & Rules Shared Workflow DRM Relative Impact of Capability On behavior 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 12. Meetings “ in Virtual” “ It always amazes me how consistently we over estimate what we can do in two years and underestimate what we can do in ten” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 16. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Social Network Mapping Real time communications analysis Visualizing information sets, decisions and outcomes 17. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Managing Meeting Models, Time Lines and Interaction Effectiveness 18. Where do we go from here? “ The future is only rational in retrospect” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 20. Welcome to the future - however it turns out! Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 23. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Source: InternetWorldStats.com WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS World Regions Population ( 2006 Est.) Population % of World Internet Usage, Latest Data % Population ( Penetration ) Usage % of World Usage Growth 2000-2006 Africa 915,210,928 14.1 % 32,765,700 3.6 % 3.0 % 625.8 % Asia 3,667,774,066 56.4 % 394,872,213 10.8 % 36.4 % 245.5 % Europe 807,289,020 12.4 % 308,712,903 38.2 % 28.4 % 193.7 % Middle East 190,084,161 2.9 % 19,028,400 10.0 % 1.8 % 479.3 % North America 331,473,276 5.1 % 229,138,706 69.1 % 21.1 % 112.0 % Latin America/Caribbean 553,908,632 8.5 % 83,368,209 15.1 % 7.7 % 361.4 % Oceania / Australia 33,956,977 0.5 % 18,364,772 54.1 % 1.7 % 141.0 % WORLD TOTAL 6,499,697,060 100.0 % 1,086,250,903 16.7 % 100.0 % 200.9 % NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated for Sept. 18, 2006. (2) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data contained in the world-gazetteer website. (3) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings , by the International Telecommunications Union , by local NICs, and other reliable sources. (4) Information from this site may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back to www.internetworldstats.com . Copyright © 2006, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide. 24. © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Voice Crossover: August 2000 4x/Year 2.8x/Year Limit of same % as GDP Sustained at 4x/Year 2015 2020 1 Ebps 10 Ebps 100 Ebps Government & Research Commerce, including VoIP Collaborative Work 50 years of traffic growth Consumer Peer to Peer 1 Zbps 10 Zbps Petabit threshold Exabit threshold Zettabit threshold Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 1Gbps 1Tbps 10Tbps 100Gbps 10Gbps 100Tbps 100Mbps 1Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Kbps 10Kbps 100 bps 1 Pbps 100 Pbps 10 Pbps 10 bps 10 bps ARPA & NSF Data to 96 2001 Measurements 25. Meetings in 2020 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 Notes de l'éditeur Chart reflects data collected at ARPA, NSF data and this analysis, and speculates on growth in the future Looking to the future, we believe growth will eventually have to flatten out, because most countries will not spend more on telecommunications in the future than they do today If traffic growth continues at the 4x rate, growth will slow near 2008-2010 and will remain at the same rate as the % GDP as voice traffic If growth slows or accelerates, the interception of the GDP asymptote will move forward or backward in time