Presentation to the G20 Think Tank Kick-off Meeting for the 2016 Beijing G20 Summit

1. The Copernican Revolution in the Study of
Economic Growth
John Ross (Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China)
G20 China Kickoff Meeting -14 December 2015)

2. Present policy in many countries is based on boosting
TFP growth – why this won’t work

3. A ‘Copernican revolution’- measurement and
observation typically play a revolutionary role in science
• Science states that if the facts and a theory do not coincide it
is the theory that has to be abandoned not the facts
• When Galileo turned the newly invented telescope on Jupiter
and saw its moons the earth centred theories of the universe
collapsed
• Darwin’s observations in the Galapagos Islands and Latin
America led to the theory of evolution: "such facts undermine
the stability of Species“, "one species does change into
another"

4. From the 1950s-1990s there was a contradiction
between the theory of economic growth and the facts of
economic growth
• A theory of economic growth said that growth was primarily
due to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) – Solow (1957)
• The facts of rapidly growing economies, above all in Asia,
showed rapidly growing economies were dominated by factor
accumulation of capital and labour – Young (1995)
• The prediction was therefore that the Asian economies would
drastically slow down – Krugman (1994)
• The facts were that they didn’t!
• Science demands that where facts and theory don’t coincide
the theory has to change not the facts

5. Solow’s quantitative errors in the original growth
accounting framework
• The well known problem TFP is calculated as a residual – a
‘measure of our ignorance’- Abramovitz (1956)
• An omission from the growth accounting framework
• Did not include intermediate products
• Errors with the growth accounting framework
• Did not control for changes in quality of labour
• Did not control for changes in the quality of capital inputs
• Therefore an erroneous conclusion – TFP was the main
source of economic growth

6. The steps to the official revolution in the measurement
of the driving forces of economic growth

7. Study of the causes of economic growth over
the long term

8. The work of Maddison
• Already by the 1970s Maddison had demonstrated via study
of long term economic growth that fixed investment was the
decisive ‘factor of production’ in economic development and
he extended this in later studies.
• Maddison’s analysis of why the US attained first place among
economies. ‘The rate of US domestic investment was nearly
twice the US level for the sixty year period 1890-1950. Its
level of capital stock per person employed was twice as high
as that of the UK in 1890, and its overwhelming advantage in
this respect over all other countries continued until the early
1980s. ‘ (Maddison 1991)

9. Conclusion of the study of long term trends in
economic growth

10. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP – England/UK
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK

11. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP – United States
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US

12. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP – West Germany
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US
Germany

13. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP - Japan
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US
Germany
Japan

14. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP – the ‘Asian Tiger Economies’
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US
Germany
Japan
South Korea

15. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP - China
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US
Germany
Japan
South Korea
China

16. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP - India
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US
Germany
Japan
South Korea
China
India

17. The historical rise in the proportion of investment in
GDP - Vietnam
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
% of GDP
UK
US
Germany
Japan
South Korea
China
India
Vietnam

18. Why Asia grew so fast - world distribution of rates of
fixed investment
Source: World Bank

19. Development of statistical methods for study of
economic growth over the short term

20. The work of Jorgenson and the official change in the
US/UN/OECD methods of calculation of factors in
economic growth
On basis of work of Jorgenson at Harvard University and
collaborators
• 1979 Panel to Review Productivity Statistics of the National
Research Council, chaired by Albert Rees.
• 1983 US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adopts constant
quality index of capital input
• 1994 BLS adopts constant quality index of labour input as well
• 2001 OECD adopts written Measuring Productivity
• 2007 UN incorporates price and quantity of capital services
into the revision of the System of National Accounts (SNA)
• 2009 OECD manual Measuring Capital.
Therefore official transformation in the official method of
calculation of national accounts

21. The factual results of the ‘Copernican Revolution’
• Solow’s ‘finding’ that TFP was the main factor in economic
growth was simply based on wrong methods of measurement
• The order of importance of factors of production, proceeding
from the most important to the least important is
(i) Intermediate products
(ii) Capital investment
(iii) Labour inputs
(iv) TFP

22. Intermediate products

23. Intermediate products - Jorgenson’s findings on the US
US – Sources of Output Growth
GDP
Growth TFP Labour Capital
Intermediate
inputs
Average annual change
1977-2000
(median) 2.7%
1985-1995
2.4% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2%
1996-2000
4.3% 0.9% 1.3% 2.1%
2000-2006
2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4%
Source: Calculated from (Jorgenson and Vu, 2007) Table 2 and (Jorgenson, Mun
and Stiroh 2005) Table 4.8

24. Intermediate products - the conclusion for Asian
economies
• For South Korea, Hak K. Pyo, Keun-Hee Rhee and Bongchan
Ha found regarding material intermediate inputs: ‘The
relative magnitude of contribution to output growth is in the
order of: material, capital, labour, TFP then energy.’
• For Taiwan Province of China, analysing 26 sectors in 1981-
99, Chi-Yuan Liang found regarding intermediate material
inputs: ‘Material input is the biggest contributor to output
growth in all sectors during 1981-99, except… seven’.
• For mainland China, Ren and Sun found that in the period
1981-2000, subdivided into 1984-88, 1988-94 and 1994-2000:
‘Intermediate input growth is the primary source of output
growth in most industries.’

25. The ‘Solow factors’ of production

26. The ‘Solow factors’ of production
2.9%
1.6%
0.8%
0.5%
4.3%
2.5%
1.2%
0.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
GDP Capital Labour TFP
Sources of GDP Growth 1992-2014
Average annual % increase for advanced and development
economies
Advanced
Economies
Developing
Economies
Source: Calculated from The Conference Board. The Conference Board Total Economy Database 2015

27. ‘Solow factors’ of production in developing economies
Capital
60%
TFP
10%
Labour
Quantity
27%
Labour Quality
3%
% Contribution to Growth in Developing Economies
1992-2014
Capital
TFP
Labour Quantity
Labour Quality
Source: Calculated from The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy
Database, May 2015

28. ‘Solow factors’ of production in advanced economies
Capital
63%
TFP
10%
Labour
Quantity
15%
Labour Quality
11%
% Contribution to Growth in Advanced Economies
1992-2014
Capital
TFP
Labour Quantity
Labour Quality
Source: Calculated from The Conference Board. The Conference Board Total Economy Database 2015

29. Large economies are more dominated by capital
investment than small ones
Average Contributions to GDP Growth 1992-2014
% of
World
GDP1 Annual % growth
% contribution to GDP
growth
Economic groups2 GDP Capital Labour TFP Capital Labour TFP
All economies 94 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.5 61 29 10
20 largest
economies 75 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.4 67 24 9
G7 32 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 69 17 14
Smaller economies3 19 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.6 60 30 10
Correlation to GDP growth
- R2
All economies .44 .27 .18
20 largest
economies .78 .19 .33
G7 .86 .86 .04
Smaller economies .35 .31 .15
Starting year adopted as the earliest available data for Russia, however a control calculation from 1990 excluding Russia shows no significant difference
in pattern.
1 Calculated in World Bank current dollar PPPs
2 Groups ranked by World Bank current dollar PPPs
3 All economies excluding the 20 largest economies
Source: Calculated from The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015

30. For a detailed study specifically of the Asian economies
see Vu (2013)

31. So n light of the development or more accurate methods
of measurement now no contradiction of the facts and
economic theory!
But the policy that economic development can primarily
be driven by TFP has to be abandoned
Or to put it simply Solow quantification was wrong and
it is necessary for economic policy and theory to
understand this and its implications

32. Works cited
• Abramovitz, M. (1956), “Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870,”
American Economic Review, V. 46: 5-23.
• Jorgenson, D. W. (2009). Introduction to The Economics of Productivity. In D. W.
Jorgenson (Ed.), The Economics of Productivity (pp. ix-xxviii). Cheltenham, UK: Edward
Elgar.
• Jorgenson, D.W., Mun S. Ho, Stiroh K.J. (2005), Growth of U.S. Industries and
Investments in Information Technology and Higher Education :
http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10627
• Jorgenson, D. W. & Vu, K. M. (2007). Information Technology and the World Growth
Resurgence, German Economic Review, Volume 8, Issue 2, pages 125–145, May 2007
• Krugman, P. (1994). The Myth of Asia's Miracle. Foreign Affairs, 73(6), 62-78.
• Maddison, A. (1991). Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development. Oxford, UK: Oxford
University Press.
• Solow, R. M. (1957, August). Technical change and the Aggregate Production Function.
Review of Economics and Statistics(3), 312-320.
• Vu, K. M. (2013). The Dynamics of Economic Growth - Policy Insights from Comparative
Analyses in Asia. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, M.A., US: Edward Elgar.
• Young, A. (1995, August). The tyranny of numbers: confronting the statistical reality of
the East Asian growth experience. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 641-680.