Strictly Boardroom book interview - Trench & Sykes - Aug 2016 - AICD WA Newsletter

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John Sykes

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The Future(s) of Mining and Exploration

John Sykes

Using scenarios to explore the future of mining

John Sykes

Exploration and discovery: Do frameworks and organisation matter?

John Sykes

Lithium demand is growing fast, driven by a wide range of battery applications, which are in turn changing the structure of demand, the lithium supply chain and potentially raw material requirements though much still remains uncertain; • Geologically ‘brine’ salars and ‘hard rock’ pegmatites remain the most important lithium deposit types in terms of production and undeveloped resources, however, there are some interesting emerging sedimentary / clay deposits and unconventional brine concepts and lithium remains very ‘under explored’ globally; • Spodumene pegmatites in Australia are the fastest growing source of supply, however, long term competitiveness may be dependent on successful downstream integration targeting the battery industry; • The concept of a Western Australian ‘Lithium Valley’ is possible, despite high costs, due to the number of quality mines, proximity to Asia, and the unit reduction in freight costs associated with the low grade spodumene concentrate , in addition to the ‘cluster effect’ of many minerals businesses, specialists and students; • The ‘green’ association of lithium use presents a challenge of ‘strategic coherence’ to explorers and miners impacting decisions around exploration, mining, investors, stakeholders, and leadership; • But remember, we are in an unsustainable ‘lithium boom’ of high prices and high volume growth future long term growth of the industry is reliant on structurally lower prices, and thus structurally lower costs.

A global overview of the geology and economics of lithium production

John Sykes

Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...

John Sykes

Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including: • a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery • better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery; • developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets; • building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines; • switching from a focus on economic value to shared value; • developing a stronger innovation and technology culture; • encouraging creativity and ideation; • linking short and long term thinking; • improving the image of exploration; • monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and • measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends; • encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’. Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.

My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...

John Sykes

1. Landmark report looks out 40 years critically includes the impact of resource quality, exploration, and uncertainty; 2. Over the short term (<5 years) production will be dominated by existing mines; 3. Over the medium term (5 10 years) production will come from new mines based on known deposits, however, it is not enough to offset the decline (mainly due to ‘quality’ issues); 4. In the long term (10 40 years) exploration success will play a major role in overcoming much of the looming shortfall in gold production… 5. Consequently, in forty years time almost all of Australia’s future gold production will come from exploration successes… 6. ...even so, production and revenues are set to fall by half over the next 40 7. Also note that in 13 years half of Australia’s gold production will come from mines that are yet to be discovered… 8. …but the weighted average delay between discovery and development is also 13 years 9. For the gold industry to maintain production at current levels over the longer term, it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance 10. And finally, with sensitivity studies indicating each additional dollar spent on exploration (over the next ten years) generates extra revenue of ~$11.40 over the next 40 years there is incentive for both industry and government to further invest in gold exploration!

Australian gold in 40-years: The need for greenfields exploration

John Sykes

The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology. The ‘CET Scenarios’ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (‘Wonderland’); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (‘1984’). Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy. The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring ‘progress in transition’, ‘horizon scanning’, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence. An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers. NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!

A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy Transition

John Sykes

Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Sc...

John Sykes

Strategy is Dead, Long Live Strategy!

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The investment climate for mining, exploration and mineral sands - Sykes - Ma...

John Sykes

Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx Consulting

John Sykes

Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Expl...

John Sykes

Renewable energy and battery metals - Sykes & Trench - Nov 2017 - Centre for...

John Sykes

Globalisation & sustainability in mining - Sykes et al - Sep 2017 - Centre fo...

John Sykes

Western Australian Iron Ore - Laurent et al - Jul 2017 - UWA Business School

John Sykes

Mining and renewable energy scenarios - Sykes - Jun 2017 - Centre for Explora...

John Sykes

Sandstone gold endowment - Davies et al - Apr 2017 - Centre for Exploration T...

John Sykes

Future(s) of mineral exploration - Sykes et al - Apr 2017 - Centre for Explor...

John Sykes

Business of greenfields exploration - Sykes & Trench - Apr 2017 - Centre for ...

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