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Supply Shortages In Tin Mine Supply - Sept 2012 - John P. Sykes - Greenfields Research / ITRI
Supply shortages in tin mine supply……and its effect on the global electronics industry John P. Sykes, Director, Greenfields Research Ltd (on behalf of ITRI Ltd)
Supply shortages in tin mine supplyContents 1 Demand: Tin solder not tin cans 2 Prices: Highest since 1980s ITC Tin Crisis 3 Supply problem: costly alluvial production 4 Supply problem: decline in Asia 5 Supply problem: dependent on other riches 6 Supply problem: dealing with capital costs 7 Conclusions: new mine supply required!
Supply shortages in tin mine supplyDemand: Tin solder not tin cansSection 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
Demand: Tin solders not tin cans 2010: solder is +50% of demand 1970s: tinplate is ~40% of demandCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
China dominates solder demand Tin Consumption (2009) Others: 26,600t (8%) Glass: 7,300t (2%) Brass/Bronze: 18,300t (6%) China: 94,400t (30% of tin & 55% of solder)Chemicals: 42,600t Solder: (13%) 171,100t (54%) ROW: 76,700t (24% of tin & 45% of solder) Tinplate: 54,200t (17%) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Supply shortages in tin mine supplyPrices: Highest since 1980s ITC TinCrisisSection 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
Tin prices are at 30-year highs Long-term tin price history Tin price histogram 1900-2011 US$/tonne, inflation adjusted 2010 prices Price range, $000/tonne, 2010 real terms 40,000 60 Number of years in each price band 35,000 50 30,000 Prices at 30 year highs Recent prices 40 mainly is this 25,000 range 20,000 30 15,000 20 10,000 10 5,000 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0 to 5 5 to 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Lead to tin solder substitution hasdriven demand & pricesLead-free solder as a % of global shipments Lead-free solder Lead solder100% 90% 80% Conversion to tin solder drove tin 70% prices 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: IPC 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Alluvial and artisanal important for tinmining in contrast to other base metals Copyright & Images: Greenfields Research
Unregulated alluvial and artisanalmining occurs in short cycles Global tin production (Kt) Index of alluvial mining booms350.0 Malaysia 1958-1987 Thailand 1962-1991 Brazil 1977-2006 Indonesia 1992-20112300.0 Other Indonesia 2012-2017??? Africa250.0 600.0 CIS/USSR Australia 500.0200.0 ? Bolivia 400.0 ?150.0 Brazil 300.0 ? Peru100.0 Thailand 200.0 Malaysia 100.0 50.0 Indonesia 0.0 China 0.0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Hard or soft rock: Grade is king! 2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs Mining Other Approximate grade of 25,000 S.E. Asian alluvial ores 20,000 US$/tonne 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1.0kg/m3 0.8kg/m3 0.6kg/m3 0.4kg/m3 0.2kg/m3 Theoretical change in cost due to changes in ore grade for a primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tinCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery.
Hard rock mining costs becomingcompetitive with alluvial mining 2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs Mining Processing Other Approximate grade of 25,000 new hard rock projects 20,000 US$/tonne 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 OP 2.0% UG 4.0% OP 1.5% UG 3.0% OP 1.0% UG 2.0% OP 0.5% UG 1.0% Open pit mine is a theoretical primary tin, open pit mine in Australia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Underground mine is a theoretical primary tin, underground mine in Australia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.
Hard or soft rock: Grade is king! 2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs Fuel Electricity Labour Other 100% Vulnerable to labour % breakdown of cost 80% costs inputs 60% 40% 20% 0% Alluvial Open Pit Underground Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia grading 0.2kg/m3, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery. Vulnerable to fuel costs Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, underground mine in Australia grading 1.0%, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery.Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, open pit mine in Australia grading 0.5%, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery.
Supply shortages in tin mine supplySupply problem: Decline in AsiaSection 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
Asian countries dominate production,very few developed world tin miners Russia (0.2%) World Tin Mine Production (2012 est.) Mongolia Portugal (<0.1%) (<0.1%)Peru Egypt (0.1%)(9.4%) Nigeria (0.6%) DR Congo (2.6%) China Rwanda Myanmar (0.7%) (1.4%) (34.5%) Thailand (0.1%) Burundi (<0.1%) Malaysia Laos (0.4%) Vietnam (1.2%) (1.2%) Bolivia (6.9%) Brazil (3.8%) IndonesiaCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Australia (34.5%) (2.3%)
Developed versus developing worldlabour rates versus fuel prices? 2011, GNI Per Capita (US$) 2007-11 GNI Per Capita CAGR (%) 60,000 14.0% Developed world …but developing 50,000 12.0% labour costs are world labour costs higher… 10.0% are rising quickly 40,000 8.0% 30,000 6.0% 20,000 4.0% 10,000 2.0% 0 0.0%Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: World Bank
Developed nations a safer investment,important for large capital projectsCountry Ranking (of 181) Country Ranking (of 181)Canada 4th Peru 56thAustralia 5th - -- - China 71stUSA 10th Brazil 72nd- - - -Germany 20th Indonesia 111th- - - -UK 25th Bolivia 125th- - - -Spain 27th DR Congo 159th Rankings based on Greenfields Research’s proprietary mining political risk ranking system. The ranking system correlates economic data setsthat cover most of the world’s countries (such as the Transparency International Corruption Index, the World Bank Doing Business dataset andGDP/land area) with well known mining industry political risk surveys, including the Fraser Institute, Behre Dolbear and ResourceStocks, to get a system which ranks all countries by their suitability for mining, not just those in the mining industry surveys. Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: Greenfields Research
Exchange rates important, a strongerRupiah raises marginal costs Exchange rates (to US dollar) indexed to 2006 Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Chinese Renminbi (CYN) Bolivian Bolivano (BOB) Brazilian Real (BRL) Australian Dollar (AUD)1.151.10 Weaker1.051.000.950.90 Stronger0.850.800.75 Indonesian Rupiah affects0.70 marginal costs in tin. A 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 stronger Rupiah meansCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI higher long term tin prices
Asian mining in decline, replaced by developed world production UK (0.1%) World Tin Mine Production (2016 est.) Russia (0.9%) Germany MongoliaCanada (0.1%) Morocco Kazakhstan (1.2%) (0.4%) (2.1%) (1.8%) Portugal (<0.1%) Spain (0.3%) Egypt (0.7%) China Peru Myanmar (10.6%) DR Congo (3.0%) (3.1%) (26.2%) Nigeria (0.5%) Laos (0.4%) Rwanda (1.2%) Thailand (>0.1%) Vietnam (1.1%) Malaysia (2.9%) Burundi (<0.1%) South Africa (0.5%) Bolivia Indonesia Australia (7.5%) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Brazil (4.8%) (22.0%) (8.5%)
Tin mining is dependent on a widevariety of by-products World Tin Mine By-Products (2012 est.) Antimony Copper Gallium Indium Lead China Australia & China China China China Niobium Silver Tantalum Tungsten ZincBrazil, Burundi, China Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Mongolia, Bolivia, China Nigeria Rwanda MyanmarCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com, www.cdves.com, American Elements, Wikipedia
Tin industry uneconomic without by-products 2016 estimates of revenue shares for tin producing mines and mine projects Tin Aggregates Copper Iron Ore Mineral Sands Niobium Silver Tantalum Tungsten Lead/Zinc100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Tin mining will become moredependent on by-products World Tin Mine By-Products (2017 est.) Indium Iron Ore Lithium Copper Gallium LeadAggregates Antimony Australia, Canada, Australia, Czech Rep. Australia, China, China, China Malaysia China China, Germany Kazakhstan Germany, Germany Kazakhstan, Peru, UKMolybdenum Niobium Silver Tantalum Titanium Zirconium Tungsten Zinc Canada Brazil, Australia, Australia, Burundi, Kazakhstan, Brazil Australia, Canada, Australia, Burundi, Canada, Congo, Egypt, Malaysia Egypt, Kazakhstan, Bolivia, Nigeria China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Canada, China, Kazakhstan, Rwanda Portugal, Russia, Germany, UK, USA Spain, UK, USA USA Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com, www.cdves.com, American Elements, Wikipedia, www.made-in-china.com; www.images-of-elements.com
Dominated by small, privatecompanies and state miners ~39,400t, 13.6%, ~32,000t, 11.0%, ~27,200t, 9.4%, State/Public, Indonesia Private/Public, Peru State/Public, China ~11,600t, 4.0%, ~10,500t, 3.6%, ~7,125t, 2.5%, Public, State, Bolivia Private, China Malaysia/Indonesia ~3,500t, 1.2%, State, ~3,200t, 1.1%, Public, ~2,500t, 0.8%, Private, ~2,000t, 0.7%, Co-op, Vietnam Australia China BrazilCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Company websites, ITRI, Wikipedia
Substantial investment required in newtin supply, bigger companies requiredCompany Project Capex Capacity Capex Source (US$M) (t/y Sn) (US$/t/y)Consolidated Tin Mines Mt Garnet 124.0 3,050 40,700 Scoping 2010Kasbah Resources Achmmach 167.0 6,880 24,300 Pre-Feasibility 2012Metals X Rentails 173.2 5,300 32,700 Feasibility 2009Stellar Resources Heemskirk 108.0 3,900 27,700 Scoping 2011Venture Minerals Mount Lindsay 144.6* 3,700 39,100 PFS 2011Total & average 716.8 22,830 31,397 Total new mine supply required 2011-15: 70,000t/y Average capital cost per tonne new capacity: $31,400 Total investment required in new supply: $2.2 billionCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI * Mount Lindsay is a tin-tungsten-magnetite project. The tungsten plant in particular greatly adds to capital costs.
Supply shortages in tin mine supplyConclusions: New tin mine supplyneededSection 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7
High marginal tin costs, mean highlong term prices Hard rock High and rising Alluvial marginal costs dictate long term prices – Artisanal (non-alluvial) currently ~$25,000/t, rising to $40,000/t ???Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Generally rising costs mean that evenfloor prices are quite high Recent price lows versus marginal cash costs Copper Zinc Nickel Tin 2011 Cash Costs (US$/tonne) Floor (100%) Median 2,250 922 6,505 8,686 seems to be about ¾ the marginal 10th Decile 4,000 1,530 16,048 13,327 cost for base metals, currently Recent price history (monthly average LME 3-months prices) about $18,000/t, GFC low 3,108 1,119 9,791 10,465 rising to about 2011 peak 9,854 2,489 28,266 32,464 $25,000/t ??? GFC low versus: Median 138% 121% 151% 120% 10th Decile 78% 73% 61% 79%Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI, Barclays Capital, Brook Hunt
Alternative price forecasts are all high Price history and forecast scenarios (US$/tonne) Historical price (real 2010) Central Forecast Double Dip Scenario Robust Growth Scenario 50,000 45,000 High demand growth, significant new supply Marginal cost: $40,000/t ??? 40,000 required, prices will trends 35,000 towards a high & rising Future price 30,000 marginal cost range: $20,000- 25,000 40,000/t ??? 20,000 Floor price: $20,000/t ??? 15,000 No demand growth, new 10,000 supply will struggle to 5,000 come on stream, prices will 0 trend towards a high & rising floor priceCopyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
Plenty of projects in the pipeline: timeand money needed to develop them 1 at feasibility stage 90Kt at feasibility stage 4 at scoping stage 310Kt at scoping 824Kt as compliant 10 with compliant stage resources resources ~60 with historical resources ~3.2Mt as historical resources ~130 known projects ~4.8Mt of estimated reserves (USGS)Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI, Greenfields Research, USGS, Infomine, company websites
New supply will have to enter the costcurve lower than marginal alluvials Operating (2012) These projects Brownfields currently not Greenfields economic New projects Greyfields need to enter the cost curve here!Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
Supply shortages in tin mine supplyConclusion 1 Tin is an electronic metal driven by solder demand. 2 30-year price highs are effecting the electronics industry. 3 Alluvial tin supply falling to be replaced by hard rock mining. 4 Declining Asian mining, new supply from elsewhere in the world. 5 Increasing reliance on by-products as grades decline. 6 Future supply will have much higher capital costs. 7 High medium term prices, will encourage new supply on-stream
Contact Details: John P. Sykes Director, Greenfields Research firstname.lastname@example.org www.greenfieldsresearch.comToday’s reference: ITRI Tin Industry Review 2011 Peter Kettle Manager, Statistics & Market Studies email@example.com www.itri.co.uk