Dr Johnny Ryan of PageFair: Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking

1. The blocked web, blessing or curse?
NYC, 7 February 2017
Dr Johnny Ryan, PageFair

2. @johnnyryan

3. Background: founded Demonware, created
the technology to enable huge multiplayer
games. Is used in games like…
pre-2012

4. PageFair team working
on adblocking since
2010. Established
PageFair in 2012.

5. 2013 2014
2015
The cost of ad blocking
PageFair and Adobe 2015 Ad Blocking Report
2016
2017

8. Dec 16Apr 09
Global
Monthly figures
-

9. 200 M
150 M
25 M
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16
100 M
50 M
235 M
Dec 1
Global
Monthly figures

10. 400 M
300 M
50 M
100 M
25 M
235 M
Global
Monthly figures
Desktop/Laptop
Mobile
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Dec 1

11. 50.2 million monthly active
PCs, and 1.6 million monthly
active mobile devices.
18% adblock penetration
Start of 2017

12. 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 > 65
All ages are 1.5 times more likely than
average to have a bachelors degree
U.S. adblock users by age

13. 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 > 65
All ages are 1.5 times more likely than
average to have a bachelors degree
3 times more likely to have a bachelors degree
U.S. adblock users by age

14. - Dec 16Dec 13

15. Desktop Growth
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
50 M
40 M
30 M
27 M

16. Desktop Growth
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
50 M
40 M
30 M
27 M
Summer months

17. Desktop Growth
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
50 M
40 M
30 M
27 M
Summer months

18. Linear. Not
exponential.

19. NOT THE
“ADPOCALYPSE”

20. ADBLOCKING
IS LIKE
CLIMATE CHANGE

22. DIGITAL
AD INDUSTRY
SHORT TERMISM

23. Why people block
(no order)
•Security.
•Ads obscure content.
•Bandwidth.
•Privacy.

24. Why people block
(no order)
•Security.
•Ads obscure content.
•Bandwidth.
•Privacy.
•Because they can.

25. The “Blab-Off” TV remote control. 1952.

29. 80%learn about ad blocking from
friends / web / social media

30. HISTORY
(Antidote to short-termism)

31. “The best western history of the Internet to date”
Library Journal
“Engrossing”
Cory Doctorow, BoingBoing
“Consider this book your road map”
Marc Benioff,
CEO, Salesforce
“An immensely important book”
Kevin O'Sullivan,
Editor of The Irish Times
“Enormously useful ... a great read”
Prof Tim Wu,
Columbia Law School
“Captures the sweep of the Internet’s development”
Prof Jonathan Zittrain, Harvard Law School

32. first physics web servers outside CERN
January 1991

33. 44.8 million people 1995

34. 188.5 million people 1998

35. 1.6 billion people 2008

36. 2.7 billion people January 2013

37. 2.7 billion people blocked web: <1 % January 2013
Blocked Web (nerds)

38. December 20163.4 billion people blocked web: 11 %

39. 50 million people
Now
286.9 million
TODAY IN THE UNITED STATES

40. THE
GOOD NEWS

41. 77%of adblock users
willing to view ads

42. 77%of adblock users
willing to view ads
up from
66% in
2014

43. 61%
67% 67%
% of adblock users who express a
willingness to view each format,
multiple choice (2014)
Popover Video non-
skippable
mid-roll
Display with
audio
Video non-
skippable
pre-roll
Interstitial Animated
display
Video
skippable
mid-roll
Video
skippable
pre-roll
Text ad
30%
60%
Image
display

44. Image
display
25%
50%
35%
52%
Animated
display
Ads that
auto play
sound
Non-skippable
video
Native ads Skippable
video
% of adblock users who express a
willingness to view each format,
single choice (2017)

45. AD SERVING
ADBLOCKING
CAN NOT
TAMPER WITH

46. Publisher’s inventory
(LEAN display formats)
Regular audience Unblocked audience
IAB LEAN Advertisement
Advertisement
///
Advertisement
Advertisement
///
Publisher’s inventory
(All formats)
Tamper-proof serving
Regular ad Server

47. Listen
to users’
grievances.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking

48. Listen Fix
to users’
grievances.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking

49. Listen Fix
to users’
grievances.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking

50. Listen Fix SERVE
to users’
grievances.
LEAN display
format using
tamper-proof
serving.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking

52. Technologies … that can block the
display of our ads … have had an
adverse effect on our financial results
and, if such technologies continue to
proliferate, in particular with respect
to mobile platforms, our future
financial results may be harmed.
- Facebook 2015 annual report

53. Desktop ad revenue grew 18%… Recent
quarters [were] about half of that
growth rate on a year-over-year basis.
… That acceleration in desktop revenue
growth is largely due to our efforts on
reducing the impact of ad blocking.
- David Wehner, Facebook CFO
quarterly earnings call, Q3 2016
Q3

54. Desktop ad revenue grew 22%, despite
a decline in desktop usage, helped by
our efforts to limit the impact of ad
blockers on advertisements served on
personal computers.
- David Wehner, Facebook CFO
quarterly earnings call, Q4 2016
Q4

55. SOLVE CMO’s
3 TERRIBLE PROBLEMS
OF DIGITAL MARKETING
WEB CLUTTER
adFRAUD
VERSATILITY

56. #1
Ad Fraud

57. Attention = PLENTIFUL.
Adblock user
Ads = SCARCE.

58. Attention = PLENTIFUL.
Adblock user
Ads = SCARCE.
Definitely human.

59. #2
Clutter

60. Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad Ad Ad Ad Ad
Ad
Ad

61. ATTENTION V ADVERTISING
SCARCE
ATTENTION
OVER-ABUNDANT
ADVERTISING

62. ATTENTION V ADVERTISING

63. ABUNDANT
ATTENTION
SCARCE
ADVERTISING
ATTENTION V ADVERTISING

64. #3
Versatility

65. BTL
ATL
66% of online advertising is performance advertising, according to IAB/PwC Internet Ad Revenue Report, HY 2015

66. Most normal
Web users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE
66% of online advertising is performance advertising, according to IAB/PwC Internet Ad Revenue Report, HY 2015

67. Adblock
users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE

68. Adblock
users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE

69. Adblock
users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE

70. TIME TO ENGAGE
WITH THE
BLOCKED WEB

71. “Appeal” Please turn off
your adblockerTamper-proof
Adblock Detection

72. “Appeal”
Ads blocked
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection

73. “Appeal”
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection

74. “Wall”
“Appeal”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
Advertiseme
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
LEAN AD
LEAN AD

75. “Wall”
“Inform”
“Appeal”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
Advertiseme
Restored Ads
Advertiseme
Welcome
to better ads!
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD

76. “Wall”
“Inform”
“Appeal”
“Choice”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
Advertiseme
Restored Ads
Advertisement
Advertiseme
Welcome
to better ads!
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Regular Ads
Restored Ads
Advertiseme
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD

77. “Wall”
“Inform”
“Direct”
“Appeal”
“Choice”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Restored Ads
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Welcome
to better ads!
Restored Ads
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Regular Ads
Restored Ads
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection

78. Listen Fix SERVE
to users’
grievances.
LEAN display
format using
tamper-proof
serving.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
PageFair’s 3 Steps to Solving Adblocking

79. 1. Adblock is a new remote control. It will
not go away.
2. Respond like Facebook: Listen to
grievances, Fix these problems,
then Serve ads in a tamper-proof way.
3.The unblocked web is an opportunity.
Summary
@johnnyryan PageFair.com