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Solar PV success of Germany and chances for Vietnam

Enerexpo vietnam-2010

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Solar PV success of Germany and chances for Vietnam

  1. 1. placeholder partner logoEnergySolar energy in the past decadeA German success story and chances for Vietnamwww.renewables-made-in-germany.com
  2. 2. placeholder partner logoOutlinePart one: Technical options and p p potential Solar energy systems Potential and current utilization of of solar technologyPartP two: S l energy usage i Germany Solar in G By which mean did Germany rapidly increase solar energy use?Part three: Solar energy usage in Vietnam energ sage Success stories for implementing ‚solar home systems‘ Role of additional funding such as CDM revenuesPart four: Examples of solar installations
  3. 3. placeholder partner logoThe physical potential of renewable energies
  4. 4. placeholder partner logoAverage Annual Global Solar Insolation kWh/m2/day Germany Vietnam NASA, 2010
  5. 5. placeholder partner logoMain terrestrial solar electricity market segments Off-Grid Industrial Consumer Off-Grid Residential On-Grid Source: RWE SHOTT Solar 2004
  6. 6. placeholder partner logoGrid connected PV system Energetic performance Approximate electricity generation cost
  7. 7. placeholder partner logoSolar Home PV system (SHS) r1 Schematic view of a  Solar Home System
  8. 8. Folie 7r1 Graphs to be replaced by Conergy system Sebastian Randig; 23.02.2010
  9. 9. placeholder partner logoCumulative installed PV capactiy in EU27 and the world
  10. 10. placeholder partner logoPV module price experience curve since 1976 ($/W)Historical Price Experience Curve:Doubling of cumulative productionreduces prices by 22%
  11. 11. placeholder partner logo PV competitiveness €/kWhElectricity 1,0 900 h/a:Generating 0,60 €/kWhCost for PV 0,8and utility 1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWhprices 0,6 0,4 Photovoltaics 0,2 Utility peak power Bulk power p 0,0 , 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: RWE SHOTT Solar 2004
  12. 12. placeholder partner logoPart two: Solar energy usage in Germany
  13. 13. placeholder partner logo Energy in Germany Electricity generation in Germany  German700,00 TWh energy market is600,00 dominated by thermal500,00 energy Other (TWh)  sources.400,00 Renewables (TWh) Renewable energy Nuclear (TWh)300,00 generation Gas (TWh) slowly200,00 Oil (TWh) increasing its market Coal (TWh)100,00 share. 0,00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 European Comission, 2009
  14. 14. placeholder partner logoDevelopment of Renewables in Germany Photovoltaics makes up 1.7% of renewable energy source. Solar thermal energy makes up 1.8% renewable energy source. Policies have a significant effect on renewable energy development. New EEG policy (2004) has had the biggest impact on the solar energy development. gy p BMU, 2009
  15. 15. placeholder partner logo Feed-in Feed in TariffsA feed-in tariff is a policy mechanism designed to encourage the adoptionof renewable energy sources. sources1990- Electricity Feed Act (StrEG) : Law requiring utilities providers to purchase electricity generated from renewable sources for a set rate.2000- Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) : Reworked law, which set individual rates based on energy source and project size. Gave 20 year guarantees, but rates decline over time. guarantees time2004- new EEG : Increase in the rates available within the EEG law. BMU, 2009
  16. 16. placeholder partner logo Solar PV installations since since 1990 in GermanyInstalled capacity & energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany BMU, 2009
  17. 17. placeholder partner logoSolar Energy Situation in GermanyPhotovoltaics: 4TWh produced in 2008 (29% increase from 2007)Solar Collectors 210,000 plants with 1.9 million m2 of collectors installed (d bl i t ll d (double 2007)
  18. 18. placeholder partner logo Effect of Feed in Tariffs Feed-inFeed-in and payment under the StrEG & EEG Strong correlation between fees and renewable energy production. EEG policy more sucessful than S EG policy. li f l h StrEG li BMU, 2009
  19. 19. placeholder partner logo Market Indicators Jobs in Renewable Energy Sectors in Germany Renewable jobs increased 73%.300000 Solar jobs increased 196%. 196%250000 74400 jobs in solar in 2008 (25100 in200000 2004)150000 Renewables Turnover from the Construction of Renewable  Solar100000 Energy Powered Installations in Germany, 2008 50000 Biomass  electricity Hydropower y p 0 Biomass heat 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Geothermal Wind energy Total l had turnover of €7650 ill T t l solar h d t f €7650mill in 2008. Solar thermal 58.4% of renewable market. Photovoltaics BMU, 2009
  20. 20. placeholder partner logoPart three: Solar energy usage in Vietnam
  21. 21. placeholder partner logoElectricity Use in Vietnam Total Electricity Net Generation in Vietnam  (GWh) 60Vietnam: 50 40 Production around 30 60GWh 20 10 Production is growing 0 rapidly. 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Vietnam’s per capita Total Electricity Net Consumption per Capita  energy consumption is (MWh/Capita) one of the lowest in Asia 7 and only about one 10th of 6 5 China the consumption in 4 Germany Germany. 3 2 Thailand 1 Vietnam 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 EIA, 2010
  22. 22. placeholder partner logo Electricity Mix in VietnamElectricity Generation by Fuel Type (GWh) Electricity generation dominated by hydro and thermal th l generation. Very little so called „new“ ll d “ renewable electricity produced. d d Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro EIA, 2010
  23. 23. placeholder partner logo Solar Potential in Vietnam a.com Average Solar Radiation, kWh/m2/day .terragalleria 7 6 5www. 4 Da Nang 3 Ha Noi Nha Trang 2 Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung, 2010
  24. 24. placeholder partner logoSolar Use in VietnamSolar Electricity: y Total installed Photovoltaics is around 2MWp. Solar photovoltaics has been expanding since 1994.Solar Heating: Solar water heating has been developing since 1990. Increased growth since 1998, especially in Ho Chi Minh City. Competition within the industry is growing. growing Many parts of hot water systems are imported, mostly from China. Hiep, 2009
  25. 25. placeholder partner logo Case study Solar Home System Example from Bangladesh System-• Bangladesh receives an average daily solar radiation of 4–6.5 kWh/m2• ‘Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Development (RERED) Programme Government encouraging the use of Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Development (RERED) Programme. Government encouraging the use of  off‐grid renewable energy technologies, such as solar home systems.• The project envisages installing 929,169 SHSs all across Bangladesh between 2007 and 2015.• Solar Home Systems (SHSs) are highly decentralized and particularly suitable for remote, inaccessible areas. • Since 1996, penetration of SHSs increased rapidly, mainly due to the efforts of Grameen Shakti, which sells PV systems  on credit to rural households through its extensive network. Several other NGOs such as a CMES and BRAC are also  engaged in promoting PV technology. Average Solar Radiation kWh/m2/day Average Solar Radiation, kWh/m2/day Cooperation 7 6 5 German – Bangladesh C k kfw-entwicklungsbank 4 Ha Noi 3 Ho Chi Minh City 2 Bangladesh (low) 1 Bangladesh (high) Bangladesh (high) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month
  26. 26. placeholder partner logoSolar home systems zept solkonz pt solkonzep
  27. 27. placeholder partner logoThe Clean Development Mechanism 18 solar projects registered to date. p j g 2518 kCERs expected by 2010 in the CDM pipeline, pipeline equilivent to 2,518,000 tonnes CO2 2 518 000 …. But from economic perspective the profit contribution of CERs generated by Solar PV g y remains marginal CDM Pipeline
  28. 28. placeholder partner logoEstimated Range of CDM Transaction CostsStage Low HighPre-development 5,000 15,000PDD 15,000 15 000 50,000 50 000DNA Approval 0 5,000Validation 10,000 10 000 40,000 40 000Legal/Contracting 10,000 20,000TotalT t l 40,000 40 000 130,000 130 000 Source: UNEP 2006
  29. 29. placeholder partner logoImpact of Transaction Costs on Ren. Energy Projects Ren Source: UNEP 2006 Source: UNEP 2006
  30. 30. placeholder partner logoPart four: Examples of solar installations
  31. 31. placeholder partner logoRoof top installations Schüco Gehrlicher
  32. 32. placeholder partner logoBuilding integrated her Gehrlich
  33. 33. placeholder partner logoGreenfield installation Gehrlicher
  34. 34. placeholder partner logoPV Soundless Gehrlicher
  35. 35. placeholder partner logo Monocrystaline SystemSolea AG a Mudule Efficiency of up to 25% has been reached. System Efficiency of above 10% is realistically reached Energy payback period 1-2 years. (Science Daily 2009)
  36. 36. placeholder partner logo1-axis1 axis solar tracker Concent Solar GmbH 40% more energy yield G compared to fixed installations trix Low power consumption ~ 1.5kWh/year renz Lor
  37. 37. placeholder partner logo2-axis2 axis solar tracker BSW search in Germany Res G
  38. 38. placeholder partner logoThin-filmThin film installations kingalpha.com m Commercial installations can Seek have efficiency around 11%. obal.net Greenisglo
  39. 39. placeholder partner logoSolar concentrator openfarmtech olar concentrix-so c ntrix-solar ent metaefficie concen
  40. 40. Auswärtig Amt ges Solar towers Flikr placeholder partner logoWas shington Po ost
  41. 41. placeholder partner logoThank you for your attention! Sebastian Randig German section of International Solar Energy Society gy y Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie e.V. Sebastian.Randig@gmx.de www. www.dgs.de/