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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 31, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Jan 28            Change         US Market                                Jan 28            Change
SET Index                                        981.83               -4.88       Dow Jones                             11,823.70                 -166.13
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      27,296.12            -1,797.11       Nasdaq                                 2,686.89                  -68.39
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                   -727.14            -1,994.07       S&P 500                                1,276.34                  -23.20
Thai Bond Market                                 Jan 28            Change         US 10 yr T-note (%)                         3.33                   -6 bp
Total Return Index                               200.39               -0.01       US 2yr T-note (%)                           0.55                   -4 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                     NYMEX crude ($/b)                         89.34                   +3.70
Change (bp)               1m        3m        6m         1yr            2yr         3yr       5yr        7yr       10yr       12yr       14yr         18yr
Jan 28 (%)               2.06      2.11      2.29       2.54           2.97        3.22      3.43       3.64       3.85       4.04        4.14        4.23
Change (bp)                 3         2           2         0             2           2         4          1          1           2          1           1
Interbank Rates           Jan 31       Jan 27              BIBOR              1w          1m          2m         3m        6m          9m          1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    1.900-2.210            Jan 28          2.26250      2.28516 2.34375 2.39625 2.49750 2.55250 2.66594
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day            14-day               1m             SIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Jan 28                    2.25000        2.25000               -                 -             Jan 28       0.27060         0.30900           0.46550
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m            9m         1yr            LIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Jan 28             1.04947     0.94587 1.11452 1.48143 1.71964                1.95086          Jan 28       0.26000         0.30438           0.45381
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr              2yr                3yr              4yr             5yr              7yr              10yr
Jan 31        Bid/Ask                 1.85/1.90        2.54/2.59          3.04/3.07       3.35/3.40        3.61/3.65       3.91/3.96         4.15/4.20
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                 Selling                  Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                 T/T                          T/T                             Export/Import
USD                                     30.93                  31.03                        31.28                                -1.80/0.00
EUR                                    41.9188                42.0538                      42.5825                              -5.90/-0.63
GBP                                    48.9225                49.0813                      49.6650                              -4.25/-0.50
JPY                                    0.3749                 0.3761                        0.3830                               -3.09/1.99
KBank Technical Analysis                    Jan 31            Jan 28            Support        Resistance         Trend                Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                31.18             31.03              31.00           31.25          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                          82.07               82.1             81.50           82.60          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
EUR/USD                                     1.3592            1.3613             1.3530           1.3620         Sideway       Sell EUR near resistance



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Global stocks closed lower on Friday, led by the ongoing concerns of inflation in the developing
                        economies and emerging markets while unrests in Egypt also played apart
                   •    US Q4 GDP rose by a below-consensus pace of 3.2%qoq annualized as inventory accumulation
                        declined but private consumption showed strong growth
                   •    Thailand’s manufacturing production index decline 2.5% yoy on the back of slow down in
                        certain industry’s production but trend remained positive


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD lowered to 1.360 as the dollar gained amid poor risk appetite in the market. USD/JPY
                        fell below 82.00 on the back of safe haven demand after unrests in Egypt escalated and
                        outcome is still unpredictable. JPY/THB had climbed to its highest in about 13 months’ time
                        and is testing higher still this morning
                    •   USD/THB clos USD/THB broke new high to 31.09 in the afternoon on Friday, equivalent to about
                        3.3% weaker against the U.S. dollar, since the New Year. We see a likelihood of USD/THB
                        testing 31.50 in the next few weeks


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    China may order its biggest lenders, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and
                        China Construction Bank Corp., to raise capital ratios to as high as 14 percent when credit
                        growth is judged excessive
                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 31, 2011

                                                                                                                                 is likely to have expanded by more than 7.8% (up from
                    Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                     7.5%) in the year 2010, in line with the BoT’s forecast of an
    Global stocks closed lower on Friday, led by the ongoing                                                                     8.0% growth. The December manufacturing production
    concerns of inflation in the developing economies and                                                                        index (MPI) dropped 0.10% mom and 2.5% yoy. Capacity
    emerging markets while unrests in Egypt also played a                                                                        utilization rate declined to 63.4% from 63.6% in November
    part. According to some news reports, the events in Tunisia                                                                  and the average of 63.7% in the fourth quarter.
    may have inspired current unrests in Egypt, stoking fear
    that unhappiness arising from economic hardship and                                                                                    US Treasuries and Thai rates
    higher food prices may cause the long-suppressed political
    issues to escalate into unrests among the North African
    and Middle East nations.                                                                                                     Treasuries headed for their first monthly gain since
                                                                                                                                 September, while Japanese and Australian bonds rose, as
    Gold rebounded to around $1,342/ounce this morning, after                                                                    protests in Egypt fueled demand for the relative safety of
    last week’s slump to $1,313/ounce but there is little support                                                                government debt.
    in the near term as investors’ shifted to stocks. Crude oil                                                                  U.S. two-year yields were near the lowest level in seven
    declined to below $86/barrel last week on news of possible                                                                   weeks as Asian stocks slid and crude oil advanced. The
    production increase among OPEC nations but quickly rose                                                                      Federal Reserve is scheduled to buy $6 billion to $8 billion
    to above $90/barrel this morning on concerns in Egypt.                                                                       of notes due from August 2013 to December 2014 today as
                                                                                                                                 part of its plan to spur the economy.
     % QoQ saar
       8                                                                                                                         Benchmark 10-year Treasuries yielded 3.32 percent as of
        6                                                                                                                        9:38 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data.
        4                                                                                                                        Two-year notes yielded 0.54 percent. The rate declined to
        2                                                                                                                        0.53 percent earlier today, the lowest level since Dec. 8.
        0
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bloomberg)
       -2
                    Government expenditure
       -4           Net exports                                                                                                   S&P Index                                                                                              (bp)
       -6           Private investment
                                                                                                                                  1350                                                                                                    300
       -8           Private consumption
                    GDP Growth                                                                                                    1300                                                                                                   280
     -10
        Mar-07       Sep-07        Mar-08    Sep-08      Mar-09      Sep-09       Mar-10      Sep-10                              1250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         260
                                                                                                                                  1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         240
                                                                                                                                  1150
    U.S. economic update – was Q4 GDP was slightly below                                                                                                                                                                                 220
                                                                                                                                  1100
    the market’s estimate of a 3.5% qoq saar increase. The
                                                                                                                                  1050                                                                                                   200
    actual reading turned out to be at 3.2% but a positive sign
                                                                                                                                  1000                                                                                                   180
    is that private consumption rose strongly by 4.4% (forecast
                                                                                                                                     Mar-10            May-10             Jul-10         Sep-10                Nov-10       Jan-11
    4.0%). The drag on the GDP in the last quarter had been
    the decline in inventories. The remaining worry seems to                                                                                                      S&P Index                   2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
    be the underlying inflation rate – reflect by the core private
    consumption expenditure which rose by the slowest pace                                                                       Thai interest rate: IRS yields traded lower again as the
    since around the year 1960 at 0.4% qoq saar.                                                                                 overnight and two-day swap points reverted to a discount
                                                                                                                                 again. Bond yields rose by 2-3bp on Friday on average,
    Meanwhile,     consumer       sentiment      index      (U.                                                                  mainly driven by local investors’ selling of mid-curve bonds
    Michigan/Reuters) was not as bad as earlier predicted. The                                                                   after the Bank of Thailand’s announcement of an
    measured was forecasted to fall to 73.3 after the 74.5                                                                       unexpected Bt15bn of 4-year bond issuance in February.
    reading in December but actual figure was 74.2.
                                                                                                                                     %

    For this Friday’s big number – the non-farm payrolls –                                                                           4.5

    the market expects an increase of 140,000 jobs (Dec                                                                              4.0
    103,000), but unlikely a number that is strong enough to                                                                         3.5
    bring down unemployment rate significantly, in line with the                                                                     3.0
    FOMC statement last week which still see a weak labor
                                                                                                                                     2.5
    market in the U.S. and hence, Q.E.2 is likely to remain in
                                                                                                                                     2.0
    place.
                                                                                                                                     1.5
        120
                                                                                                                                       Dec-09              Mar-10              Jun-10                 Sep-10            Dec-10
        110
        100
                                                                                                                                                                     2Y                 3Y                5Y              10Y
         90
         80
         70                                                                                                                         bps                               Mid-curve government bond yield spread
         60                                                                                                                          80
         50                                                                                                                          70
         40                                                                                                                          60
         30
                                                                                                                                     50
         20
                                                                                                                                     40
               05             06              07             08              09             10              11
                                                                                                                                     30
              Conference Board Consumer Confidence index                 Consumer sentiment index (U Mich)                           20
                                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                                      0
    Thailand economic update - MoF raised GDP growth
                                                                                                                                      May-10     Jun-10     Jul-10   Aug-10 Sep-10           Oct-10     Nov-10 Dec-10      Jan-11
    forecast for Q4 from 3.5% to 4.5%, citing better-than-
    expected economic numbers. It said that the Thai economy                                                                                              LB155A - LB196A spread                        LB133A - LB155A spread



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 31, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                  Fri 28-Jan-11              Thu 27-Jan-11                  % Change
       1.42
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       31.03                      30.90                       +0.42
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       81.97                      82.86                        -1.07
       1.36                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                        1.360                      1.373                        -0.95
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.5856                     1.5921                        -0.41
       1.32
       1.30                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9079                     0.9453                        -3.96
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2847                     1.2787                       +0.47
       1.26                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.05                      29.03                       +0.06
          Aug-10           Sep-10         Oct-10         Nov-10         Dec-10           Jan-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,115.6                     1,114.3                      +0.12
                                                           EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       44.08                      44.19                        -0.25
    EUR/USD lowered to 1.360 as the dollar gained amid                                                                                   USD/IDR                       9,080                      9,022                       +0.64
    poor risk appetite in the market.                                                                                                   USD/MYR                        3.054                      3.052                       +0.08
                                                                                                                                        USD/CNY                        6.586                      6.582                       +0.06
       39.00                                                                                               80                      Source: Reuters
                                                                                                           82                                                        .FX Consensus Forecast
       38.00
                                                                                                           84                                                           Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011
       37.00
                                                                                                           86
       36.00                                                                                               88                           USD/THB                        31.18                            28.30                   28.00
                                                                                                           90                           USD/JPY                        82.14                            86.00                   88.50
       35.00
                                                                                                           92
       34.00                                                                                                                            EUR/USD                         1.36                             1.29                    1.30
                                                                                                           94
       33.00                                                                                               96                           GBP/USD                         1.59                             1.55                    1.60
            1-Jan         1-Mar         1-May         1-Jul         1-Sep        1-Nov            1-Jan
                                                                                                                                        USD/CNY                         6.59                             6.46                    6.30
                                  JPY/THB (LHS)                 USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)
                                                                                                                                        USD/SGD                         1.29                             1.27                    1.24

    USD/JPY fell below 82.00 on the back of safe haven                                                                                   USD/IDR                       9,055                            8,900                   8,800
    demand after unrests in Egypt escalated and outcome is                                                                              USD/MYR                         3.06                             3.02                    2.96
    still unpredictable. JPY/THB had climbed to its highest in                                                                          USD/PHP                        44.29                            42.50                   41.50
    about 13 months’ time and is testing higher still this
    morning.                                                                                                                            USD/KRW                        1,123                            1,088                   1,050
                                                                                                                                        USD/TWD                        29.03                            28.65                   28.45
       31.30
       31.10                                                                                                                            AUD/USD                         0.99                             0.99                    0.98
       30.90
                                                                                                                                        NZD/USD                         0.77                             0.77                    0.76
       30.70                                                                                                                       Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
       30.50
       30.30                                                                                                                                                           Currency Pair Targets
       30.10
                                                                                                                                                                               Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
       29.90
       29.70                                                                                                                                 USD/THB                           31.18                   28.30                     28.0
       29.50
                                                                                                                                             EUR/THB                           42.38                    40.0                     37.0
            Oct-10                  Nov-10                Dec-10                 Jan-11
                                                                                                                                             JPY/THB                           37.90                   34.70                     29.5
                                                           USD/THB
                                                                                                                                             GBP/THB                           49.35                   47.40                     43.7
    USD/THB broke new high to 31.09 in the afternoon on
    Friday, equivalent to about 3.3% weaker against the U.S.                                                                                 CNY/THB                           4.73                     4.78                      4.2
    dollar, 5.9% against the euro, and 1.4% against the                                                                                      AUD/THB                           30.89                    27.4                     26.0
    Japanese yen since the New Year.
                                                                                                                                             CHF/THB                           33.11                    29.6                     27.7
                                                                                                                                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
    We see a likelihood of USD/THB testing 31.50 in the next
    few weeks, should market view for the baht remained                                                                          KBank NEER Index
    negative and foreigners continue to take money off the
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         98.86
    Thai stock market.
                                                                                                                                 YTD                                                                           + 6.16%
    Sentiment for risky assets remained capped this morning                                                                      vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 5.23%
    as investors flocked to safe haven assets due to concerns                                                                    vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 2.24%
    of unrests in Europe. This morning, the baht is following                                                                    vs 1 week ago                                                                 - 0.14%
    regional currencies weaker.
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  - 0.08%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 11.16%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 31, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                        Jan 28
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB113A               2.10      2.12           2.14         2.15           2.17              2.18        2.20            2.22         1.98                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
           LB116A             2.72      2.62           2.52         2.43           2.33              2.24        2.14            2.04         1.70
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11215A                          0.04              85,000                     2.080/2.143          2.130440       0.96
          LB11NA              3.60      3.33           3.06         2.79           2.53              2.26        1.99            1.72         1.20
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB123A             4.22      3.85           3.48         3.11           2.73              2.36        1.99            1.62         1.00
                                                                                                                                                                       Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
          LB12NA              5.36      4.75           4.14         3.52           2.91              2.30        1.68            1.07         0.21
           LB133A             6.04      5.30           4.56         3.82           3.08              2.33        1.59            0.85        -0.14                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB137A             6.60      5.74           4.87         4.01           3.15              2.28        1.42            0.55        -0.56
          LB13OA              7.04      6.08           5.12         4.16           3.20              2.24        1.28            0.32        -0.88                     CB11303DA                         0.08              25,000                     01-Feb-11            03-Mar-11       -
           LB143A             7.39      6.37           5.34         4.32           3.30              2.27        1.25            0.22        -1.05                     CB11506C                          0.25              22,000                     01-Feb-11           06-May-11        -
           LB145A             7.96      6.81           5.66         4.51           3.37              2.22        1.07            -0.08 -1.47                           CB11804B                          0.50              15,000                     01-Feb-11            04-Aug-11       -
           LB145B             7.96      6.81           5.66         4.51           3.37              2.22        1.07            -0.07 -1.47                           CB12202A                          1.00              50,000                     01-Feb-11            02-Feb-12       -
          LB14DA              8.75      7.42           6.08         4.75           3.41              2.08        0.75            -0.59 -2.17                           BOT142A                           3.00              15,000                     11-Feb-11            15-Feb-14       -
           LB155A             9.53      8.01           6.48         4.96           3.44              1.92        0.40            -1.12 -2.89                           BOT152A                           4.00              15,000                     22-Feb-11            24-Feb-11       -
           LB157A             9.39      7.90           6.42         4.94           3.46              1.97        0.49            -0.99 -2.72
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB15DA              10.37 8.65               6.92         5.19           3.46              1.74        0.01            -1.72 -3.69
           LB167A             10.97 9.11               7.25         5.40           3.54              1.69       -0.17 -2.02 -4.12
          LB16NA              11.51 9.53               7.54         5.56           3.57              1.59       -0.40 -2.38 -4.61
           LB171A             11.60 9.61               7.62         5.63           3.64              1.65       -0.34 -2.33 -4.57                                      * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
           LB175A             12.13 10.01 7.89                      5.77           3.66              1.54       -0.58 -2.69 -5.06                                      during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
                                                                                                                                                                       cash balance.
           LB183A             13.21 10.83 8.45                      6.08           3.70              1.32       -1.05 -3.43 -6.05
           LB183B             12.92 10.61 8.31                      6.00           3.70              1.40       -0.90 -3.21 -5.76
           LB191A             13.89 11.34 8.80                      6.26           3.72              1.18       -1.36 -3.90 -6.68
           LB196A             14.83 12.06 9.28                      6.50           3.73              0.95       -1.82 -4.59 -7.61
           LB198A             14.39 11.74 9.08                      6.43           3.78              1.13       -1.52 -4.16 -7.06
          LB19DA              14.94 12.16 9.38                      6.60           3.83              1.05       -1.72 -4.50 -7.52
           LB213A             16.07 13.03 9.99                      6.95           3.92              0.88       -2.16 -5.19 -8.47
           LB214A             15.96 12.96 9.96                      6.96           3.96              0.97       -2.03 -5.02 -8.27
          LB22NA              18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56                               4.07              0.57       -2.92 -6.40 -10.14
           LB233A             18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61                               4.11              0.62       -2.88 -6.37 -10.11
           LB236A             19.56 15.69 11.83 7.97                               4.12              0.26       -3.60 -7.45 -11.55
           LB244A             19.68 15.79 11.91 8.04                               4.16              0.28       -3.59 -7.46 -11.58
          LB24DA              20.29 16.27 12.24 8.22                               4.19              0.17       -3.84 -7.86 -12.12
           LB267A             20.80 16.66 12.52 8.38                               4.24              0.11       -4.03 -8.16 -12.53
           LB283A             22.04 17.60 13.15 8.71                               4.27          -0.17 -4.60 -9.03 -13.71
           LB296A             23.76 18.88 14.02 9.15                               4.29          -0.57 -5.42 -10.28 -15.37
           LB383A             27.96 22.06 16.15 10.26 4.37                                       -1.52 -7.40 -13.28 -19.40
           LB396A             29.28 23.05 16.83 10.61 4.39                                       -1.82 -8.02 -14.22 -20.66
          Average             13.00 10.65 8.29                      5.94           3.59              1.24       -1.11 -3.46 -6.05
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 31, 2011

                                                                                                                                 An earlier version of the rules would have required China’s
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       biggest banks to have capital adequacy ratios of 11
                                                                                                                                 percent to 15 percent by the end of 2012, a person with
    China Said to Plan Raising Ratio If Credit                                                                                   knowledge of that proposal said in September. That
    Excessive: China may order its biggest lenders,                                                                              compares with ratios from 11.5 percent to 14 percent
    including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and                                                                     stipulated by the latest proposal.
    China Construction Bank Corp., to raise capital ratios to as
    high as 14 percent when credit growth is judged excessive,                                                                   The previous version also called for Tier 1 capital of 8
    said a person familiar with the matter.                                                                                      percent. The new proposal’s requirement for Tier 1 capital,
                                                                                                                                 which includes common equity, retained profits and
    Newly proposed rules would require increasing capital                                                                        perpetual preferred stock, is 6 percent, same as the Basel
    adequacy buffers by as much as 2.5 percentage points                                                                         rules, according to the person.
    when the banking regulator determines loan growth to be
    too fast, said the person, declining to be identified as the                                                                  (Source: Bloomberg)
    plan isn’t public. In normal conditions, lenders deemed
    systemically important will need to have a minimum 11.5
    percent ratio, unchanged from the current requirement for
    China’s biggest banks, said the person.

    China is tightening oversight of banks, limiting mortgages
    and raising interest rates to prevent a record $2.7 trillion of
    credit extended in the past two years from inflating asset
    bubbles that may saddle lenders with bad loans. Some
    banks may need to raise additional capital to meet the new
    requirements, the person said.

    “This shows further tightening as the regulator worries
    about excessive lending,” Xu Guangfu, an analyst at
    Xiangcai Securities Co. in Shanghai, said by telephone.
    “The banking sector’s valuation is already depressed and
    this may drag it lower. The market will be more concerned
    about those banks that were lending aggressively.”

    An official with the regulator’s news department, who
    declined to be identified because of the agency’s rules,
    said a decision hasn’t yet been made on the ratios and that
    the process is still ongoing.

    Under the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s
    proposed rules, systemically important banks will have to
    comply with the capital ratio requirements by the end of
    2013, three years earlier than other lenders, the person
    said. China’s five biggest banks, which also include the
    Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and
    Bank of Communications Co., are currently deemed
    systemically important, the person said.

    All banks would be required to have a capital adequacy
    ratio of at least 8 percent, with an additional 2.5 percentage
    points as a buffer during normal credit conditions, the
    person said. Systemically important banks would need to
    maintain an additional percentage point, the person said.

    During periods when loan growth is too fast, the regulator
    will require all lenders to increase their ratios by as much
    as 2.5 percentage points, the person said. It isn’t
    immediately clear what standards would be used for
    determining when credit expansion is excessive, the
    person said.

    Regulators are taking advantage of record bank profits and                                                                                              Market Strategists:
    double-digit economic growth to set stricter rules at a faster                                                                                          Nalin Chutchotitham
    pace than agreements announced in July by the Basel
    Committee on Banking Supervision. China’s economy, set                                                                                                  Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
    to surpass Japan’s to become the world’s second biggest,
    grew 10.3 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in three years,                                                                                             Tel: 02-470-3235
    according to government data.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 31, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Jobless Rate                                                           DEC                  5.10%                  4.90%                  5.10%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Job-To-Applicant Ratio                                                 DEC                    0.58                  0.57                   0.57                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Overall Hhold Spending (YoY)                                           DEC                  -0.60%                 -3.30%                -0.40%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Tokyo CPI YoY                                                          JAN                  -0.20%                 -0.10%                -0.20%                   -0.10%
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY                                            JAN                  -0.30%                 -0.20%                -0.40%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY                                          JAN                  -0.50%                 -0.30%                -0.50%                      --

       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Natl CPI YoY                                                           DEC                  -0.10%                 0.00%                  0.10%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Natl CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY                                             DEC                  -0.50%                 -0.40%                -0.50%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY                                           DEC                  -0.80%                 -0.70%                -0.90%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:50                      JN             Retail Trade MoM SA                                                    DEC                  -1.40%                 -4.10%                 1.90%                    2.10%
       01/28/2011 06:50                      JN             Retail Trade YoY                                                       DEC                  0.60%                  -2.00%                 1.30%                    1.50%
       01/28/2011 06:50                      JN             Large Retailers' Sales                                                 DEC                  -0.50%                 -1.80%                 0.20%                    0.10%
       01/28/2011 07:01                      UK             GfK Consumer Confidence Survey                                         JAN                    -22                    -29                    -21                      --
       01/28/2011 08:35                      CH             MNI Business Condition Survey                                          JAN                     --                   61.11                 62.08                      --
       01/28/2011 14:00                      TH             Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)                                       DEC                    0.65                  -2.48                  5.61                     5.65
       01/28/2011 14:00                      TH             Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)                                        DEC                     --                  190.83                189.21                   189.09
       01/28/2011 14:00                      TH             Total Capacity Utilization ISIC                                        DEC                     --                   63.4                   63.6                      --
       01/28/2011 14:30                      TH             Foreign Reserves                                                     Jan-21                    --                 $174.4B               $174.1B                      --
       01/28/2011 14:30                      TH             Forward Contracts                                                    Jan-21                    --                  $18.4B                $18.1B                      --
       01/28/2011 15:20                      TA             Bounced Check Ratio                                                    DEC                     --                  0.17%                  0.17%                      --
       01/28/2011 16:00                      EC             Euro-Zone M3 s.a. 3 mth ave.                                           DEC                  1.60%                  1.60%                  1.30%                    1.40%
       01/28/2011 16:00                      EC             Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY)                                                DEC                  1.90%                  1.70%                  1.90%                    2.10%
       01/28/2011 16:00                       IT            Hourly Wages (MoM)                                                     DEC                  0.20%                  0.10%                  0.20%                      --
       01/28/2011 16:00                       IT            Hourly Wages (YoY)                                                     DEC                  1.70%                  1.70%                  1.70%                      --
       01/28/2011 17:00                       IT            Consumer Confidence Ind. sa                                            JAN                    109                   105.9                 109.1                      --
            26-28 JAN                        VN             Industrial Output YTD (YoY)                                            JAN                     --                     --                 14.00%                      --
            26-28 JAN                        VN             Retail Sales YTD (YoY)                                                 JAN                     --                     --                 24.50%                      --
       01/28/2011 20:30                      US             Employment Cost Index                                                   4Q                  0.50%                  0.40%                  0.40%                      --
       01/28/2011 20:30                      US             GDP QoQ (Annualized)                                                  4Q A                  3.50%                  3.20%                  2.60%                      --
       01/28/2011 20:30                      US             GDP Price Index                                                       4Q A                  1.60%                  0.30%                  2.10%                      --
       01/28/2011 20:30                      US             Core PCE QoQ                                                          4Q A                  0.40%                  0.40%                  0.50%                      --
       01/28/2011 20:30                      US             Personal Consumption                                                  4Q A                  4.00%                  4.40%                  2.40%                      --
       01/28/2011 21:55                      US             U. of Michigan Confidence                                             JAN F                   73.3                  74.2                   72.7                      --
       01/31/2011 04:00                      SK             Business Survey- Manufacturing                                         FEB                     --                     91                    92                       --
       01/31/2011 04:00                      SK             Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing                                     FEB                     --                     84                    87                       --
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Service Industry Output YoY                                            DEC                     --                  2.10%                  3.60%                    3.80%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Industrial Production Mfg(YoY)                                         DEC                     --                  9.90%                 10.60%                   10.90%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Industrial Production (MoM)                                            DEC                  2.60%                  2.80%                  1.40%                    1.50%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Industrial Production (YoY)                                            DEC                  9.90%                  9.80%                 10.40%                   10.70%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Leading Index (YoY)                                                    DEC                     --                  2.30%                  2.60%                    2.50%
       01/31/2011 06:15                      JN             Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI                                          JAN                     --                   51.4                   48.3                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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KBank daily jan 31

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 31, 2011 Thai Stock Market Jan 28 Change US Market Jan 28 Change SET Index 981.83 -4.88 Dow Jones 11,823.70 -166.13 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 27,296.12 -1,797.11 Nasdaq 2,686.89 -68.39 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -727.14 -1,994.07 S&P 500 1,276.34 -23.20 Thai Bond Market Jan 28 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.33 -6 bp Total Return Index 200.39 -0.01 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.55 -4 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 89.34 +3.70 Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Jan 28 (%) 2.06 2.11 2.29 2.54 2.97 3.22 3.43 3.64 3.85 4.04 4.14 4.23 Change (bp) 3 2 2 0 2 2 4 1 1 2 1 1 Interbank Rates Jan 31 Jan 27 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 1.900-2.210 Jan 28 2.26250 2.28516 2.34375 2.39625 2.49750 2.55250 2.66594 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 28 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 28 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 28 1.04947 0.94587 1.11452 1.48143 1.71964 1.95086 Jan 28 0.26000 0.30438 0.45381 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Jan 31 Bid/Ask 1.85/1.90 2.54/2.59 3.04/3.07 3.35/3.40 3.61/3.65 3.91/3.96 4.15/4.20 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.93 31.03 31.28 -1.80/0.00 EUR 41.9188 42.0538 42.5825 -5.90/-0.63 GBP 48.9225 49.0813 49.6650 -4.25/-0.50 JPY 0.3749 0.3761 0.3830 -3.09/1.99 KBank Technical Analysis Jan 31 Jan 28 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 31.18 31.03 31.00 31.25 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 82.07 82.1 81.50 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistance EUR/USD 1.3592 1.3613 1.3530 1.3620 Sideway Sell EUR near resistance Macro and Market Outlook • Global stocks closed lower on Friday, led by the ongoing concerns of inflation in the developing economies and emerging markets while unrests in Egypt also played apart • US Q4 GDP rose by a below-consensus pace of 3.2%qoq annualized as inventory accumulation declined but private consumption showed strong growth • Thailand’s manufacturing production index decline 2.5% yoy on the back of slow down in certain industry’s production but trend remained positive FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD lowered to 1.360 as the dollar gained amid poor risk appetite in the market. USD/JPY fell below 82.00 on the back of safe haven demand after unrests in Egypt escalated and outcome is still unpredictable. JPY/THB had climbed to its highest in about 13 months’ time and is testing higher still this morning • USD/THB clos USD/THB broke new high to 31.09 in the afternoon on Friday, equivalent to about 3.3% weaker against the U.S. dollar, since the New Year. We see a likelihood of USD/THB testing 31.50 in the next few weeks Economic News Update • China may order its biggest lenders, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp., to raise capital ratios to as high as 14 percent when credit growth is judged excessive Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 is likely to have expanded by more than 7.8% (up from Macro and Market Outlook 7.5%) in the year 2010, in line with the BoT’s forecast of an Global stocks closed lower on Friday, led by the ongoing 8.0% growth. The December manufacturing production concerns of inflation in the developing economies and index (MPI) dropped 0.10% mom and 2.5% yoy. Capacity emerging markets while unrests in Egypt also played a utilization rate declined to 63.4% from 63.6% in November part. According to some news reports, the events in Tunisia and the average of 63.7% in the fourth quarter. may have inspired current unrests in Egypt, stoking fear that unhappiness arising from economic hardship and US Treasuries and Thai rates higher food prices may cause the long-suppressed political issues to escalate into unrests among the North African and Middle East nations. Treasuries headed for their first monthly gain since September, while Japanese and Australian bonds rose, as Gold rebounded to around $1,342/ounce this morning, after protests in Egypt fueled demand for the relative safety of last week’s slump to $1,313/ounce but there is little support government debt. in the near term as investors’ shifted to stocks. Crude oil U.S. two-year yields were near the lowest level in seven declined to below $86/barrel last week on news of possible weeks as Asian stocks slid and crude oil advanced. The production increase among OPEC nations but quickly rose Federal Reserve is scheduled to buy $6 billion to $8 billion to above $90/barrel this morning on concerns in Egypt. of notes due from August 2013 to December 2014 today as part of its plan to spur the economy. % QoQ saar 8 Benchmark 10-year Treasuries yielded 3.32 percent as of 6 9:38 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. 4 Two-year notes yielded 0.54 percent. The rate declined to 2 0.53 percent earlier today, the lowest level since Dec. 8. 0 (Source: Bloomberg) -2 Government expenditure -4 Net exports S&P Index (bp) -6 Private investment 1350 300 -8 Private consumption GDP Growth 1300 280 -10 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 1250 260 1200 240 1150 U.S. economic update – was Q4 GDP was slightly below 220 1100 the market’s estimate of a 3.5% qoq saar increase. The 1050 200 actual reading turned out to be at 3.2% but a positive sign 1000 180 is that private consumption rose strongly by 4.4% (forecast Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 4.0%). The drag on the GDP in the last quarter had been the decline in inventories. The remaining worry seems to S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) be the underlying inflation rate – reflect by the core private consumption expenditure which rose by the slowest pace Thai interest rate: IRS yields traded lower again as the since around the year 1960 at 0.4% qoq saar. overnight and two-day swap points reverted to a discount again. Bond yields rose by 2-3bp on Friday on average, Meanwhile, consumer sentiment index (U. mainly driven by local investors’ selling of mid-curve bonds Michigan/Reuters) was not as bad as earlier predicted. The after the Bank of Thailand’s announcement of an measured was forecasted to fall to 73.3 after the 74.5 unexpected Bt15bn of 4-year bond issuance in February. reading in December but actual figure was 74.2. % For this Friday’s big number – the non-farm payrolls – 4.5 the market expects an increase of 140,000 jobs (Dec 4.0 103,000), but unlikely a number that is strong enough to 3.5 bring down unemployment rate significantly, in line with the 3.0 FOMC statement last week which still see a weak labor 2.5 market in the U.S. and hence, Q.E.2 is likely to remain in 2.0 place. 1.5 120 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 110 100 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 90 80 70 bps Mid-curve government bond yield spread 60 80 50 70 40 60 30 50 20 40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 30 Conference Board Consumer Confidence index Consumer sentiment index (U Mich) 20 10 0 Thailand economic update - MoF raised GDP growth May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 forecast for Q4 from 3.5% to 4.5%, citing better-than- expected economic numbers. It said that the Thai economy LB155A - LB196A spread LB133A - LB155A spread 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Fri 28-Jan-11 Thu 27-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 31.03 30.90 +0.42 1.38 USD/JPY 81.97 82.86 -1.07 1.36 EUR/USD 1.360 1.373 -0.95 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5856 1.5921 -0.41 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9079 0.9453 -3.96 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2847 1.2787 +0.47 1.26 USD/TWD 29.05 29.03 +0.06 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,115.6 1,114.3 +0.12 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.08 44.19 -0.25 EUR/USD lowered to 1.360 as the dollar gained amid USD/IDR 9,080 9,022 +0.64 poor risk appetite in the market. USD/MYR 3.054 3.052 +0.08 USD/CNY 6.586 6.582 +0.06 39.00 80 Source: Reuters 82 .FX Consensus Forecast 38.00 84 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 37.00 86 36.00 88 USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.00 90 USD/JPY 82.14 86.00 88.50 35.00 92 34.00 EUR/USD 1.36 1.29 1.30 94 33.00 96 GBP/USD 1.59 1.55 1.60 1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov 1-Jan USD/CNY 6.59 6.46 6.30 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/SGD 1.29 1.27 1.24 USD/JPY fell below 82.00 on the back of safe haven USD/IDR 9,055 8,900 8,800 demand after unrests in Egypt escalated and outcome is USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.96 still unpredictable. JPY/THB had climbed to its highest in USD/PHP 44.29 42.50 41.50 about 13 months’ time and is testing higher still this morning. USD/KRW 1,123 1,088 1,050 USD/TWD 29.03 28.65 28.45 31.30 31.10 AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 0.98 30.90 NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 30.70 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 30.50 30.30 Currency Pair Targets 30.10 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 29.90 29.70 USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.0 29.50 EUR/THB 42.38 40.0 37.0 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 JPY/THB 37.90 34.70 29.5 USD/THB GBP/THB 49.35 47.40 43.7 USD/THB broke new high to 31.09 in the afternoon on Friday, equivalent to about 3.3% weaker against the U.S. CNY/THB 4.73 4.78 4.2 dollar, 5.9% against the euro, and 1.4% against the AUD/THB 30.89 27.4 26.0 Japanese yen since the New Year. CHF/THB 33.11 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg We see a likelihood of USD/THB testing 31.50 in the next few weeks, should market view for the baht remained KBank NEER Index negative and foreigners continue to take money off the Current 98.86 Thai stock market. YTD + 6.16% Sentiment for risky assets remained capped this morning vs 52 weeks ago + 5.23% as investors flocked to safe haven assets due to concerns vs 1mth ago - 2.24% of unrests in Europe. This morning, the baht is following vs 1 week ago - 0.14% regional currencies weaker. vs 1 day ago - 0.08% vs long term average + 11.16% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 28 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.15 2.17 2.18 2.20 2.22 1.98 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.72 2.62 2.52 2.43 2.33 2.24 2.14 2.04 1.70 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 2.080/2.143 2.130440 0.96 LB11NA 3.60 3.33 3.06 2.79 2.53 2.26 1.99 1.72 1.20 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.22 3.85 3.48 3.11 2.73 2.36 1.99 1.62 1.00 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB12NA 5.36 4.75 4.14 3.52 2.91 2.30 1.68 1.07 0.21 LB133A 6.04 5.30 4.56 3.82 3.08 2.33 1.59 0.85 -0.14 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.60 5.74 4.87 4.01 3.15 2.28 1.42 0.55 -0.56 LB13OA 7.04 6.08 5.12 4.16 3.20 2.24 1.28 0.32 -0.88 CB11303DA 0.08 25,000 01-Feb-11 03-Mar-11 - LB143A 7.39 6.37 5.34 4.32 3.30 2.27 1.25 0.22 -1.05 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 01-Feb-11 06-May-11 - LB145A 7.96 6.81 5.66 4.51 3.37 2.22 1.07 -0.08 -1.47 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 01-Feb-11 04-Aug-11 - LB145B 7.96 6.81 5.66 4.51 3.37 2.22 1.07 -0.07 -1.47 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-12 - LB14DA 8.75 7.42 6.08 4.75 3.41 2.08 0.75 -0.59 -2.17 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 - LB155A 9.53 8.01 6.48 4.96 3.44 1.92 0.40 -1.12 -2.89 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 - LB157A 9.39 7.90 6.42 4.94 3.46 1.97 0.49 -0.99 -2.72 Source: ThaiBMA LB15DA 10.37 8.65 6.92 5.19 3.46 1.74 0.01 -1.72 -3.69 LB167A 10.97 9.11 7.25 5.40 3.54 1.69 -0.17 -2.02 -4.12 LB16NA 11.51 9.53 7.54 5.56 3.57 1.59 -0.40 -2.38 -4.61 LB171A 11.60 9.61 7.62 5.63 3.64 1.65 -0.34 -2.33 -4.57 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB175A 12.13 10.01 7.89 5.77 3.66 1.54 -0.58 -2.69 -5.06 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury cash balance. LB183A 13.21 10.83 8.45 6.08 3.70 1.32 -1.05 -3.43 -6.05 LB183B 12.92 10.61 8.31 6.00 3.70 1.40 -0.90 -3.21 -5.76 LB191A 13.89 11.34 8.80 6.26 3.72 1.18 -1.36 -3.90 -6.68 LB196A 14.83 12.06 9.28 6.50 3.73 0.95 -1.82 -4.59 -7.61 LB198A 14.39 11.74 9.08 6.43 3.78 1.13 -1.52 -4.16 -7.06 LB19DA 14.94 12.16 9.38 6.60 3.83 1.05 -1.72 -4.50 -7.52 LB213A 16.07 13.03 9.99 6.95 3.92 0.88 -2.16 -5.19 -8.47 LB214A 15.96 12.96 9.96 6.96 3.96 0.97 -2.03 -5.02 -8.27 LB22NA 18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.57 -2.92 -6.40 -10.14 LB233A 18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61 4.11 0.62 -2.88 -6.37 -10.11 LB236A 19.56 15.69 11.83 7.97 4.12 0.26 -3.60 -7.45 -11.55 LB244A 19.68 15.79 11.91 8.04 4.16 0.28 -3.59 -7.46 -11.58 LB24DA 20.29 16.27 12.24 8.22 4.19 0.17 -3.84 -7.86 -12.12 LB267A 20.80 16.66 12.52 8.38 4.24 0.11 -4.03 -8.16 -12.53 LB283A 22.04 17.60 13.15 8.71 4.27 -0.17 -4.60 -9.03 -13.71 LB296A 23.76 18.88 14.02 9.15 4.29 -0.57 -5.42 -10.28 -15.37 LB383A 27.96 22.06 16.15 10.26 4.37 -1.52 -7.40 -13.28 -19.40 LB396A 29.28 23.05 16.83 10.61 4.39 -1.82 -8.02 -14.22 -20.66 Average 13.00 10.65 8.29 5.94 3.59 1.24 -1.11 -3.46 -6.05 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 An earlier version of the rules would have required China’s Economic News Update biggest banks to have capital adequacy ratios of 11 percent to 15 percent by the end of 2012, a person with China Said to Plan Raising Ratio If Credit knowledge of that proposal said in September. That Excessive: China may order its biggest lenders, compares with ratios from 11.5 percent to 14 percent including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and stipulated by the latest proposal. China Construction Bank Corp., to raise capital ratios to as high as 14 percent when credit growth is judged excessive, The previous version also called for Tier 1 capital of 8 said a person familiar with the matter. percent. The new proposal’s requirement for Tier 1 capital, which includes common equity, retained profits and Newly proposed rules would require increasing capital perpetual preferred stock, is 6 percent, same as the Basel adequacy buffers by as much as 2.5 percentage points rules, according to the person. when the banking regulator determines loan growth to be too fast, said the person, declining to be identified as the (Source: Bloomberg) plan isn’t public. In normal conditions, lenders deemed systemically important will need to have a minimum 11.5 percent ratio, unchanged from the current requirement for China’s biggest banks, said the person. China is tightening oversight of banks, limiting mortgages and raising interest rates to prevent a record $2.7 trillion of credit extended in the past two years from inflating asset bubbles that may saddle lenders with bad loans. Some banks may need to raise additional capital to meet the new requirements, the person said. “This shows further tightening as the regulator worries about excessive lending,” Xu Guangfu, an analyst at Xiangcai Securities Co. in Shanghai, said by telephone. “The banking sector’s valuation is already depressed and this may drag it lower. The market will be more concerned about those banks that were lending aggressively.” An official with the regulator’s news department, who declined to be identified because of the agency’s rules, said a decision hasn’t yet been made on the ratios and that the process is still ongoing. Under the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s proposed rules, systemically important banks will have to comply with the capital ratio requirements by the end of 2013, three years earlier than other lenders, the person said. China’s five biggest banks, which also include the Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co., are currently deemed systemically important, the person said. All banks would be required to have a capital adequacy ratio of at least 8 percent, with an additional 2.5 percentage points as a buffer during normal credit conditions, the person said. Systemically important banks would need to maintain an additional percentage point, the person said. During periods when loan growth is too fast, the regulator will require all lenders to increase their ratios by as much as 2.5 percentage points, the person said. It isn’t immediately clear what standards would be used for determining when credit expansion is excessive, the person said. Regulators are taking advantage of record bank profits and Market Strategists: double-digit economic growth to set stricter rules at a faster Nalin Chutchotitham pace than agreements announced in July by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. China’s economy, set Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com to surpass Japan’s to become the world’s second biggest, grew 10.3 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in three years, Tel: 02-470-3235 according to government data. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Jobless Rate DEC 5.10% 4.90% 5.10% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio DEC 0.58 0.57 0.57 -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) DEC -0.60% -3.30% -0.40% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI YoY JAN -0.20% -0.10% -0.20% -0.10% 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY JAN -0.30% -0.20% -0.40% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY JAN -0.50% -0.30% -0.50% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Natl CPI YoY DEC -0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Natl CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY DEC -0.50% -0.40% -0.50% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY DEC -0.80% -0.70% -0.90% -- 01/28/2011 06:50 JN Retail Trade MoM SA DEC -1.40% -4.10% 1.90% 2.10% 01/28/2011 06:50 JN Retail Trade YoY DEC 0.60% -2.00% 1.30% 1.50% 01/28/2011 06:50 JN Large Retailers' Sales DEC -0.50% -1.80% 0.20% 0.10% 01/28/2011 07:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey JAN -22 -29 -21 -- 01/28/2011 08:35 CH MNI Business Condition Survey JAN -- 61.11 62.08 -- 01/28/2011 14:00 TH Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY) DEC 0.65 -2.48 5.61 5.65 01/28/2011 14:00 TH Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA) DEC -- 190.83 189.21 189.09 01/28/2011 14:00 TH Total Capacity Utilization ISIC DEC -- 63.4 63.6 -- 01/28/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Jan-21 -- $174.4B $174.1B -- 01/28/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Jan-21 -- $18.4B $18.1B -- 01/28/2011 15:20 TA Bounced Check Ratio DEC -- 0.17% 0.17% -- 01/28/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. 3 mth ave. DEC 1.60% 1.60% 1.30% 1.40% 01/28/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) DEC 1.90% 1.70% 1.90% 2.10% 01/28/2011 16:00 IT Hourly Wages (MoM) DEC 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -- 01/28/2011 16:00 IT Hourly Wages (YoY) DEC 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -- 01/28/2011 17:00 IT Consumer Confidence Ind. sa JAN 109 105.9 109.1 -- 26-28 JAN VN Industrial Output YTD (YoY) JAN -- -- 14.00% -- 26-28 JAN VN Retail Sales YTD (YoY) JAN -- -- 24.50% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US Employment Cost Index 4Q 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 4Q A 3.50% 3.20% 2.60% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US GDP Price Index 4Q A 1.60% 0.30% 2.10% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q A 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US Personal Consumption 4Q A 4.00% 4.40% 2.40% -- 01/28/2011 21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence JAN F 73.3 74.2 72.7 -- 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Manufacturing FEB -- 91 92 -- 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing FEB -- 84 87 -- 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Service Industry Output YoY DEC -- 2.10% 3.60% 3.80% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production Mfg(YoY) DEC -- 9.90% 10.60% 10.90% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (MoM) DEC 2.60% 2.80% 1.40% 1.50% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (YoY) DEC 9.90% 9.80% 10.40% 10.70% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Leading Index (YoY) DEC -- 2.30% 2.60% 2.50% 01/31/2011 06:15 JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 51.4 48.3 -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.