KDD capabilities 2016 v1.0

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www.kddanalytics.com
2016 v1.0
An introduction to our capabilities…

Who are we?
Specialists in database marketing analytics (market
sizing; market simulation; segmentation; predictive
prospect, campaign and churn scoring; etc), with
extensive experience in the B2B space;
Applied marketing statisticians and data junkies who
Applied marketing statisticians and data junkies who
love to get their hands dirty integrating, cleaning,
modeling and visualizing client and 3rd party
databases;
Experienced professionals with particularly deep
experience in the telecom, IT and energy industries.

Who do we serve?
Our clients range from large providers of B2B
marketing data to small consulting groups;
We typically wholesale our services but can
and have worked directly with end users.
and have worked directly with end users.

What do we do?
Simply put, we help you help your clients make more
informed decisions via data analytics:
Statistical Modeling Data Modeling
•Prospect/Campaign Scoring
•Market Sizing
•Market Simulation
•Customer Churn Scoring
•Forecasting
•Segmentation
•Survey Sample Design
•Demand/Price Elasticity
Estimation
•Market Simulation
•Market Opportunity Mapping
•Data Integration
•Customer Profiling
•Data Visualization
Cross pollination
What do
we know?
How can we
organize it?
Can we predict
what will happen?

Statistical Modeling
Scoring…
What you
want to
find
Modeling
Target
Population
ID PERCENTILE
105343236 6
138021163 8
147116482 16
201002390 17
101047263 19
202075210 19
123136008 19
Best
customers
Churners
Buyers
Predictive modeling is
all about finding more of
those you wish to find.
Target
Population
Attributes
Population
Using model
identifies more
prospects than using
no model = “lift”
Target list
scored from
most likely
prospect to
least.
123136008 19
105639354 21
106080974 24
111180060 24
134079517 28
144439822 29
207068360 36
114185643 37
124073515 37
143104099 40
138019692 40
134110988 46
144390826 49
132020465 57
134107700 62
120017332 71
141080328 73
133209000 74
136196993 75
144430916 77
118052109 81
110296359 84
207093595 86
207057547 97
Buyers
Responders
Competitors
Population

Customer Churn…
Internal Validation - Lift Analysis
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50 Cum Lift Lift Baseline
Top decile 2.3
times average
predicted churn
Churn Likelihood
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
ChurnProbability
FULL CARE BDM PAM
Mean Tenure
Median Tenure
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decile
Lift
predicted churn
potential
External Validation - Lift Analysis
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decile
Lift
Cum Lift Lift Baseline
Top decile 1.6
times average
predicted churn
potential
Models should be validated on
data external to the modeling
sample; such as the ~1,400
additional accounts which
churned in the month
following the model build.
0.00
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Tenure (days)

Segmentation…
Segment
Customers
(sites) Percent
Market
(CiTDB) Percent Penetration Segment
Total IT
Spend ($M):
Customers
Average IT
Spend per
Employee:
Customers
Total IT
Spend ($M):
Non-
Customers
Average IT
Spend per
Employee:
Non-
Customers
1 404 4.1% 33,362 0.9% 1.2% 1 18$ 1,367$ 836$ 1,331$
2 381 3.9% 92,016 2.6% 0.4% 2 16$ 1,535$ 2,379$ 1,652$
3 374 3.8% 40,582 1.1% 0.9% 3 58$ 5,293$ 3,825$ 5,271$
4 327 3.3% 52,166 1.5% 0.6% 4 51$ 4,658$ 4,065$ 4,164$
Customer segmentation
enhanced with
opportunity mapping…
Customer segmentation can be
made actionable by enhancing
with opportunity mapping.
4 327 3.3% 52,166 1.5% 0.6% 4 51$ 4,658$ 4,065$ 4,164$
5 259 2.6% 55,559 1.5% 0.5% 5 32$ 4,582$ 4,112$ 4,334$
6 608 6.2% 119,341 3.3% 0.5% 6 62$ 3,304$ 7,716$ 3,228$
7 444 4.5% 104,702 2.9% 0.4% 7 59$ 4,583$ 6,880$ 4,151$
8 404 4.1% 96,113 2.7% 0.4% 8 7$ 571$ 1,391$ 776$
9 378 3.9% 135,668 3.8% 0.3% 9 18$ 1,539$ 3,853$ 1,538$
10 367 3.8% 11,703 0.3% 3.1% 10 232$ 3,492$ 6,787$ 3,413$
11 270 2.8% 49,856 1.4% 0.5% 11 97$ 13,180$ 9,447$ 11,408$
12 227 2.3% 119,048 3.3% 0.2% 12 179$ 27,050$ 35,355$ 21,043$
13 454 4.6% 143,270 4.0% 0.3% 13 104$ 6,168$ 13,294$ 4,044$
14 400 4.1% 190,813 5.3% 0.2% 14 13$ 938$ 3,453$ 855$
15 366 3.7% 232,119 6.5% 0.2% 15 13$ 1,158$ 5,600$ 1,249$
16 285 2.9% 16,929 0.5% 1.7% 16 351$ 6,207$ 11,710$ 3,730$
17 285 2.9% 88,629 2.5% 0.3% 17 145$ 15,373$ 23,923$ 14,720$
18 235 2.4% 83,420 2.3% 0.3% 18 77$ 8,721$ 12,574$ 6,504$
19 197 2.0% 24,242 0.7% 0.8% 19 41$ 1,044$ 3,986$ 919$
20 195 2.0% 27,189 0.8% 0.7% 20 124$ 24,045$ 9,523$ 19,618$
21 173 1.8% 59,592 1.7% 0.3% 21 19$ 3,298$ 4,056$ 3,176$
22 169 1.7% 6,974 0.2% 2.4% 22 806$ 24,558$ 24,195$ 19,278$
23 151 1.5% 79,154 2.2% 0.2% 23 14$ 2,831$ 3,864$ 2,355$
Total 9,780 100.0% 3,593,931 100.0% 0.3% Total 5,147$ 4,647$ 507,689$ 4,110$
Segments 7,353 1,862,447 0.4% Segments 2,536$ 6,460$ 202,824$ 4,501$
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Market Penetration
Average IT
Spend (Gap)
Average
Average
High
Spend/High
Penetration
Low
Spend/High
Penetration
High
Spend/Low
Penetration
Low
Spend/Low
Penetration

Forecasting…
Non-Dynamic Simulation: 3 AR Model Average
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
44,000,000
Time series and
econometric forecast
modeling.
Risk Signature
90%
100%
0.00
0.20
0.40
11/6/20052/6/20065/6/20068/6/2006
11/6/20062/6/20075/6/20078/6/2007
11/6/20072/6/20085/6/20088/6/2008
11/6/20082/6/20095/6/20098/6/2009
11/6/20092/6/20105/6/20108/6/2010
11/6/20102/6/2011
Actual Average Predicted MIN LC MAX UC
37,000,000
38,000,000
39,000,000
40,000,000
41,000,000
42,000,000
43,000,000
44,000,000
2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3
CRAF_FC ± 2 S.E.
Hold Out Test (18 Months)
25,000,000
26,000,000
27,000,000
28,000,000
29,000,000
30,000,000
31,000,000
32,000,000
2009Q
1
2009Q
2
2009Q
3
2009Q
4
2010Q
1
2010Q
2
2010Q
3
2010Q
4
2011Q
1
2011Q
2
2011Q
3
Actual
18_F_ARIMA(114)
18_F_LOG_ARIMA(112)
18_F_LOG_ARIMA(214)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2011Q
42012Q
22012Q
42013Q
22013Q
42014Q
22014Q
42015Q
22015Q
42016Q
22016Q
42017Q
22017Q
42018Q
22018Q
42019Q
22019Q
42020Q
22020Q
42021Q
22021Q
42022Q
22022Q
4
18_F_ARIMA(114)
18_F_LOG_ARIMA(112)
18_F_LOG_ARIMA(214)
12_F_ARIMA(214)
12_F_LOG_ARIMA(110)
6_F_LOG_ARIMA(211)
6_F_LOG_ARIMA(114)_GARCH(01)

Survey sample design… 280 cell design to yield
representative sample of US
business sites with overall
1.3% sampling error.

Data Modeling
Data Integration… Census
Dept.
Commerce
Dept.
10K Reports
Industry
Analyst
Reports
Gov’t
Agency
Budget
Reports
Private 3rd
Party Data
…to eliminate database
whitespace or append a
new field, such as sales
revenue or IT spend, to a
Bureau
Labor
Stats
Client
Customer or
Marketing
Database
revenue or IT spend, to a
particular business site or
customer.
Factors
(e.g. $/employee)

2008
Total Spend (m) Accounts Spend per Account
Agriculture 9,744$ 703,477 13,852$
Education 9,993$ 135,989 73,485$
Education Other 21,469$ 175,066 122,636$
F-I-RE 68,695$ 1,527,733 44,966$
Health Services 21,173$ 932,780 22,698$
Health Services Other 7,429$ 26,686 278,398$
Manufacturing 31,836$ 803,147 39,639$
Market Potential
2008
Market Size (m)
Client Bookings
(m) Client Share
Data Modeling
Market Sizing… Market size + Customer
Sales => Market Gap (how
many $ left on the table)
Manufacturing 31,836$ 803,147 39,639$
Manufacturing Other 3,391$ 34,903 97,154$
Mining/Construction 23,622$ 1,509,277 15,651$
Public Administration 24,263$ 293,066 82,790$
Retail 58,709$ 2,965,485 19,797$
Services Other 129,777$ 1,480,184 87,676$
Services-Personal 78,797$ 4,366,790 18,045$
Transportation/Telecom 25,721$ 737,019 34,899$
Wholesale 32,207$ 866,932 37,151$
Total 546,828$ 16,558,534 33,024$
Market Size (m) (m) Client Share
Agriculture 9,744$ 75$ 0.8%
Education 9,993$ 250$ 2.5%
Education Other 21,469$ 200$ 0.9%
F-I-RE 68,695$ 6,800$ 9.9%
Health Services 21,173$ 3,000$ 14.2%
Health Services Other 7,429$ 575$ 7.7%
Manufacturing 31,836$ 1,200$ 3.8%
Manufacturing Other 3,391$ 250$ 7.4%
Mining/Construction 23,622$ 2,900$ 12.3%
Public Administration 24,263$ 12,000$ 49.5%
Retail 58,709$ 5,000$ 8.5%
Services Other 129,777$ 10,000$ 7.7%
Services-Personal 78,797$ 8,000$ 10.2%
Transportation/Telecom 25,721$ 11,500$ 44.7%
Wholesale 32,207$ 2,750$ 8.5%
Total 546,828$ 64,500$ 11.8%
Accounts Value (m) Value per Account
F-I-RE 3,636 23,503$ 6,464,684$
Transportation/Telecom 2,360 10,375$ 4,395,409$
Services Other 2,679 3,435$ 1,282,042$
Education 5,605 6,388$ 1,139,616$
Health Services Other 6,042 6,500$ 1,075,787$
Manufacturing Other 2,173 1,746$ 803,341$
Public Administration 5,956 3,879$ 651,282$
Manufacturing 36,961 13,051$ 353,097$
Health Services 10,735 2,742$ 255,387$
Wholesale 6,654 1,546$ 232,377$
Mining/Construction 6,714 1,362$ 202,822$
Education Other 16,407 2,713$ 165,362$
Services-Personal 19,466 2,569$ 131,958$
Agriculture 1,571 153$ 97,141$
Retail 33,408 627$ 18,758$
Total 160,369 80,588$ 502,515$
Gap

Data Modeling
Market Simulation… Excel based models allowing
user to conduct “what if”
analyses by changing values
of model parameters.

Data Modeling
Data Visualization…
Interactive Tableau
dashboards…see

Data Modeling
US Market Sizing with ZIP Pointe
Tableau driven dashboards for easy
sizing of the US private sector market
Sizing by
* Industry
* Industry
* Region, state, CBSA, ZIP Code
* Revenue, payroll, IT spend
Drill down to ZIP Code and output
business site-level data
Online access

Data Modeling
Customer Profiling & Targeting with MarketPointe
Business site-level data merged with
customer data allowing for:
* Market sizing
* Customer profiling
* Customer profiling
* Identification and sizing of
pockets of market opportunity
Data enhanced with 3rd party
enrichment data and KDD Analytics
estimates
Deliverables
* Static and interactive
dashboards/Excel workbooks
* Scored and ranked prospecting
lists
Online access

Contact Info
Let us know how we can help you:
info@kddanalytics.com

KDD capabilities 2016 v1.0

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