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Daily Commodity Report

                                                                                                                 27th August 2012

                                                              MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) –
                    Gold         Silver         Crude
                   (5 Oct-12)   (5 Sept-12)   (19 Sep-12)     Gold opened higher at 30890 but moved lower to touch an intra-
 Open                 30,890        56,995         5,346
                                                              day low of 30885. However, it managed to move higher to touch an
                                                              intra-day high of 30955. It ended the day with modest gains to
 High                 30,955        57,549         5,356      close at 30947.
 Low                  30,885        56,995         5,337
                                                              The Stochastic and the RSI are placed above their respective
 Close                30,947        57,508         5,354      averages, which would lead to buying support at regular intervals.
                                                              However, the RSI and Stochastic still remain placed in the over
 Prev. Close          30,877        56,949         5,346      bought zone, which would lead to profit taking at higher levels. The
 % Change              0.23%         0.98%         0.15%      +DI line and ADX line are moving higher and are placed above the
                                                              47 level indicating buyers have an upper hand. MCX Gold faces
Source – MCX                                                  resistance at 30960, 31000 and 31500 while the support levels are
                                                              placed at 30840, 30428, 30340,30179, 29668 and 28859
                    Volume (In 000's)                         Positional Call – Book Profits MCX Gold (5 Oct 12) around
                   25/08/2012   24/08/2012        % Chg.
                                                              30947 given Buy @ 30340 on 22 & 23 August 2012

 Gold (gms)           2,991.0      31,504.0      -90.51%      MCX SILVER (5 SEPT 12) –

 Silver (kgs)           242.1       2,139.8      -88.68%      Silver opened higher at 56995. Incidentally, this was the lowest
                                                              price recorded for the day. It moved further higher to touch an intra-
 Crude (bbl)            565.2      25,318.5      -97.77%
                                                              day high of 57549. It ended the day with moderate gains. It closed
Source – MCX                                                  the day at 57508.

                                                              The Stochastic and the RSI are placed above their respective
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                         averages, which would lead to buying support. However, both are
                                                              also placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to regular
                   25/08/2012   24/08/2012        % Chg.
                                                              bouts of profit taking. The ADX line and +DI line are moving higher,
Gold                 92,490.8    970,729.8       -90.47%      indicating buyers are gaining strength. MCX Silver faces resistance
                                                              at 57549, 57737 and 58000 while the supports are placed at
Silver              138,892.5   1,213,769.8      -88.56%      57180, 57000, 56157, 55551, 54570 and 53675 levels.
Crude                30,225.2   1,350,721.9      -97.76%      MCX CRUDE (19 September 12) –
Source – MCX
                                                              Crude opened unchanged at 5346 but moved lower to touch an
                                                              intra-day low of 5337. However, it managed to move higher and
                Global Market (Nymex - $)                     touched an intra-day high of 5356. It ended the day with marginal
                                                              losses to close at 5354.
                   27/08/2012   25/08/2012        % Chg.
                                                              The RSI and the Stochastic are already placed below their
Gold (oz)            1,674.80      1,669.80        0.30%
                                                              respective averages, which would lead to selling pressure. The
Silver (oz)             31.07         30.62        1.47%      ADX line, +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a
WTI Crude                                                     range bound trend. It faces resistance at 5366, 5408, 5516 and
                        97.40         96.15        1.30%
(bbl)                                                         5600 while the supports are placed at 5238, 5275, 5180, 5126 and
Brent Crude                                                   5093.
                      115.11        113.59         1.34%
(bbl)
Dollar Index            81.64         81.59        0.14%      Positional Call – SELL MCX CRUDE (19 Sept 12)) around 5361,
Source – www.cmegroup.com                                     Stop Loss 5425 Target of 5225




                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
Commodity News:

 •      Nine brokerages fined over guar trading violation: NCDEX, the country's second largest commodity bourse, has
        penalised nine more brokerage firms on the direction of market regulator Forward Market Commission (FMC) for
        violating rules on collecting margin money from traders punting on guar gum futures. The direction is a part of FMC's
        probe into the abnormal rise of guar complex prices by 1,000% from November 2011 to April 2012 before the trade
        was finally banned. (ET)
 •      Investors book profit as gold touches Rs 31,000: Investors, looking at short-term gains, have liquidated a portion
        of their holdings in gold in the last few days after the yellow metal touched Rs 31,000 per 10 gm. Jewellers and
        bullion dealers say that those who need immediate cash are selling gold now but they will again enter the market
        shortly as there is a feeling in the market that the yellow metal will touch Rs 32,500 around Diwali. (ET)



 Economic Calendar:

                             Monday                     Tuesday                 Wednesday                   Thursday
                             Aug 27                      Aug 28                  Aug 29                      Aug 30
India




US                                                     Richmond Fed               MBA Mortgage         Initial Jobless Claims
                                                  Manufacturing Index               Applications
                                                                                 Gross Domestic                   Personal
                                                                              Product Annualized             Consumption
                                                                                                       Expenditures - Price
                                                                                                              Index (MoM)
                                                                                  Core Personal            EIA Natural Gas
                                                                                   Consumption            Storage change
                                                                             Expenditures (QoQ)
Global                    Germany's Import             Germany's Gfk       Germany's Consumer                    Japan's
                               price Index                   Consumer         Price Index (MoM)        Unemployment Rate
                                                    Confidence Survey                  and (YoY)
                        Germany's Business           Germany's Retail      Japan's Foreign bond       Eurozone's Economic
                                   Climate            Sales (MoM) and                investment        Sentiment Indicator
                                                                 (YoY)
                                                                             Japan's Retail Trade              Germany's
                                                                                            (YoY)           Unemployment
                                                                                                                  Change




                                                     Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                    www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
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redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to
be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be
illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into
account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the
use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and
value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain
transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
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                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report for 270812

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report 27th August 2012 MCX GOLD (5 OCTOBER 12) – Gold Silver Crude (5 Oct-12) (5 Sept-12) (19 Sep-12) Gold opened higher at 30890 but moved lower to touch an intra- Open 30,890 56,995 5,346 day low of 30885. However, it managed to move higher to touch an intra-day high of 30955. It ended the day with modest gains to High 30,955 57,549 5,356 close at 30947. Low 30,885 56,995 5,337 The Stochastic and the RSI are placed above their respective Close 30,947 57,508 5,354 averages, which would lead to buying support at regular intervals. However, the RSI and Stochastic still remain placed in the over Prev. Close 30,877 56,949 5,346 bought zone, which would lead to profit taking at higher levels. The % Change 0.23% 0.98% 0.15% +DI line and ADX line are moving higher and are placed above the 47 level indicating buyers have an upper hand. MCX Gold faces Source – MCX resistance at 30960, 31000 and 31500 while the support levels are placed at 30840, 30428, 30340,30179, 29668 and 28859 Volume (In 000's) Positional Call – Book Profits MCX Gold (5 Oct 12) around 25/08/2012 24/08/2012 % Chg. 30947 given Buy @ 30340 on 22 & 23 August 2012 Gold (gms) 2,991.0 31,504.0 -90.51% MCX SILVER (5 SEPT 12) – Silver (kgs) 242.1 2,139.8 -88.68% Silver opened higher at 56995. Incidentally, this was the lowest price recorded for the day. It moved further higher to touch an intra- Crude (bbl) 565.2 25,318.5 -97.77% day high of 57549. It ended the day with moderate gains. It closed Source – MCX the day at 57508. The Stochastic and the RSI are placed above their respective Turnover (In Lacs) averages, which would lead to buying support. However, both are also placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to regular 25/08/2012 24/08/2012 % Chg. bouts of profit taking. The ADX line and +DI line are moving higher, Gold 92,490.8 970,729.8 -90.47% indicating buyers are gaining strength. MCX Silver faces resistance at 57549, 57737 and 58000 while the supports are placed at Silver 138,892.5 1,213,769.8 -88.56% 57180, 57000, 56157, 55551, 54570 and 53675 levels. Crude 30,225.2 1,350,721.9 -97.76% MCX CRUDE (19 September 12) – Source – MCX Crude opened unchanged at 5346 but moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 5337. However, it managed to move higher and Global Market (Nymex - $) touched an intra-day high of 5356. It ended the day with marginal losses to close at 5354. 27/08/2012 25/08/2012 % Chg. The RSI and the Stochastic are already placed below their Gold (oz) 1,674.80 1,669.80 0.30% respective averages, which would lead to selling pressure. The Silver (oz) 31.07 30.62 1.47% ADX line, +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a WTI Crude range bound trend. It faces resistance at 5366, 5408, 5516 and 97.40 96.15 1.30% (bbl) 5600 while the supports are placed at 5238, 5275, 5180, 5126 and Brent Crude 5093. 115.11 113.59 1.34% (bbl) Dollar Index 81.64 81.59 0.14% Positional Call – SELL MCX CRUDE (19 Sept 12)) around 5361, Source – www.cmegroup.com Stop Loss 5425 Target of 5225 Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Commodity News: • Nine brokerages fined over guar trading violation: NCDEX, the country's second largest commodity bourse, has penalised nine more brokerage firms on the direction of market regulator Forward Market Commission (FMC) for violating rules on collecting margin money from traders punting on guar gum futures. The direction is a part of FMC's probe into the abnormal rise of guar complex prices by 1,000% from November 2011 to April 2012 before the trade was finally banned. (ET) • Investors book profit as gold touches Rs 31,000: Investors, looking at short-term gains, have liquidated a portion of their holdings in gold in the last few days after the yellow metal touched Rs 31,000 per 10 gm. Jewellers and bullion dealers say that those who need immediate cash are selling gold now but they will again enter the market shortly as there is a feeling in the market that the yellow metal will touch Rs 32,500 around Diwali. (ET) Economic Calendar: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 India US Richmond Fed MBA Mortgage Initial Jobless Claims Manufacturing Index Applications Gross Domestic Personal Product Annualized Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) Core Personal EIA Natural Gas Consumption Storage change Expenditures (QoQ) Global Germany's Import Germany's Gfk Germany's Consumer Japan's price Index Consumer Price Index (MoM) Unemployment Rate Confidence Survey and (YoY) Germany's Business Germany's Retail Japan's Foreign bond Eurozone's Economic Climate Sales (MoM) and investment Sentiment Indicator (YoY) Japan's Retail Trade Germany's (YoY) Unemployment Change Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com