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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                            12th October 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                Markets find support at lower levels
 BSE SENSEX                    18804.75             0.93
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5708.05             0.99      Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic
 NIFTY OCT. FUT.                5739.35             1.18      markets witnessed a flat opening. The over all trend
 India VIX                        16.49             -2.02     remained range bound as markets moved in a narrow band.
                                                              The volume recorded also remained lackluster. However, the
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        markets bounced back from 5630 support level, which led to
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        smart rally in the afternoon trade on back of buying support
Support           5703          5630            5607          which also led to short covering. The markets showed no
Resistance        5741          5884            5912          signs of weakness as broad based buying support were
                                                              witnessed. The markets ended the day with modest gains to
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         close near the highs for the day. The top losers for the day
50 Day SMA                     5451.67                        were JP Associates, DLF, PNB, BoB, BHEL, Rel. Infra, Tata
100 Day SMA                    5281.86                        Motors, Axis Bank, L&T and Sesa Goa.
200 Day SMA                    5227.04        ◄Positive
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained positive,
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           amidst higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the
Advances                            1656               725    markets. The prevailing technical positives helped the
Declines                            1183               382    markets witness buying support. These continue to hold
Same                                 132                 45   good. The KST and the MACD are still placed in the
Total                               2971             1152     positive territory, which augurs well for the markets.
A/D Ratio                        1.40 : 1          1.90 : 1
                                                              Moreover, the Nifty remains placed above its 50-day
                                                              SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA
               11/10/12        10/10/12        % Chg.         and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden
BSE                    2681         2848             -5.86
                                                              Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to
                                                              buying support at lower levels. However the technical
NSE                    8551         7008            22.02
                                                              negatives continue to hold good and would weigh on the
Total                 11232         9856            13.96
                                                              market sentiment at higher levels. The RSI, Stochastic,
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   KST and MACD are still placed below their respective
               11/10/12        10/10/12        % Chg.
                                                              averages. Moreover, the Stochastic is placed in the over
                                                              bought zone. These technical negatives would lead to
BSE                  2479.38     2053.80            20.72
                                                              profit taking and selling pressure. The ADX line and –DI
NSE              12677.27       10390.92            22.00
                                                              line are moving lower and, indicating sellers are covering
NSE F&O         138733.32 117568.37                 18.00     shorts regularly The market sentiment remains cautious
Total           153889.97 130013.09                 18.36     and tentative. In the meanwhile the markets would take
                                                              cues from the forthcoming quarterly results, global
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *
                                                              markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels
                                               % Chg.
               11/10/12        10/10/12
                                                              for Nifty are placed at 5703, 5630, 5607, 5526, and 5448.
Index Fut.           411920      349364             17.91     The Nifty faces resistance at 5741, 5884, 5912 and 5945
Stock Fut.           580058      446215             30.00     levels.
Index Opt.        3364724       2989553             12.55
Stock Opt.           463901      264476             75.40
Total             4820603       4049608             14.19

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                Stop
                                                 Initiation       Stop          Loss                     Target
      Stock            Close        Action         Price         Loss *          (%)       Target         (%)            Remarks
                                                                                                                     TGT of 160
                                                                                                                     Achieved given
                                                                                                                     buy @ 150 on
Aurobindo Pharma       159.50      Buy Above           160.50        157.00       2.18         168           4.67    10/10/12
Century Textiles       374.50      Buy Above           375.50        364.50       2.93         400           6.52
Federal Bank           479.85      Buy Above           481.00        473.00       1.66         499           3.74
JSW Steel              772.70   Buy Above         775.00      732.25              5.52         870          12.26
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                            Intra-day Resistance                         Intra-day Support
      Indices            Close        Pivot Point          R1       R2         R3                   S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                 18805               18745       18908        19011          19277        18642           18478    18212
S&P CNX NIFTY               5708                5689          5740       5773           5857         5656            5605     5520
NIFTY OCT. FUT.             5739                5715          5773       5808           5900         5681            5622     5529




                                         Stocks To Watch Out Today
Aurobindo Pharma, Century Textiles, Crompton Greaves, Federal bank, FT, HUL, Hind. Zinc, Indian Hotels, India Cement,
ITC, JP Associates, JpPower, JSW Steel, Jubilant Food, L&T, PNB, REC, Tata Global, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Union Bank
Bharat Forge, Dish TV, GAIL, Hexaware, ICICI Bank, Lupin, M&M, Maruti



                                                          Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 12th October 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets find support at lower levels BSE SENSEX 18804.75 0.93 S&P CNX NIFTY 5708.05 0.99 Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic NIFTY OCT. FUT. 5739.35 1.18 markets witnessed a flat opening. The over all trend India VIX 16.49 -2.02 remained range bound as markets moved in a narrow band. The volume recorded also remained lackluster. However, the S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels markets bounced back from 5630 support level, which led to Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 smart rally in the afternoon trade on back of buying support Support 5703 5630 5607 which also led to short covering. The markets showed no Resistance 5741 5884 5912 signs of weakness as broad based buying support were witnessed. The markets ended the day with modest gains to Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY close near the highs for the day. The top losers for the day 50 Day SMA 5451.67 were JP Associates, DLF, PNB, BoB, BHEL, Rel. Infra, Tata 100 Day SMA 5281.86 Motors, Axis Bank, L&T and Sesa Goa. 200 Day SMA 5227.04 ◄Positive Technically, the market breadth remained positive, Market Breadth * BSE NSE amidst higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the Advances 1656 725 markets. The prevailing technical positives helped the Declines 1183 382 markets witness buying support. These continue to hold Same 132 45 good. The KST and the MACD are still placed in the Total 2971 1152 positive territory, which augurs well for the markets. A/D Ratio 1.40 : 1 1.90 : 1 Moreover, the Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s Volume (Lacs Shares) * 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA 11/10/12 10/10/12 % Chg. and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden BSE 2681 2848 -5.86 Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to buying support at lower levels. However the technical NSE 8551 7008 22.02 negatives continue to hold good and would weigh on the Total 11232 9856 13.96 market sentiment at higher levels. The RSI, Stochastic, Turnover ( ` Crores) * KST and MACD are still placed below their respective 11/10/12 10/10/12 % Chg. averages. Moreover, the Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone. These technical negatives would lead to BSE 2479.38 2053.80 20.72 profit taking and selling pressure. The ADX line and –DI NSE 12677.27 10390.92 22.00 line are moving lower and, indicating sellers are covering NSE F&O 138733.32 117568.37 18.00 shorts regularly The market sentiment remains cautious Total 153889.97 130013.09 18.36 and tentative. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the forthcoming quarterly results, global F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels % Chg. 11/10/12 10/10/12 for Nifty are placed at 5703, 5630, 5607, 5526, and 5448. Index Fut. 411920 349364 17.91 The Nifty faces resistance at 5741, 5884, 5912 and 5945 Stock Fut. 580058 446215 30.00 levels. Index Opt. 3364724 2989553 12.55 Stock Opt. 463901 264476 75.40 Total 4820603 4049608 14.19 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks TGT of 160 Achieved given buy @ 150 on Aurobindo Pharma 159.50 Buy Above 160.50 157.00 2.18 168 4.67 10/10/12 Century Textiles 374.50 Buy Above 375.50 364.50 2.93 400 6.52 Federal Bank 479.85 Buy Above 481.00 473.00 1.66 499 3.74 JSW Steel 772.70 Buy Above 775.00 732.25 5.52 870 12.26 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 18805 18745 18908 19011 19277 18642 18478 18212 S&P CNX NIFTY 5708 5689 5740 5773 5857 5656 5605 5520 NIFTY OCT. FUT. 5739 5715 5773 5808 5900 5681 5622 5529 Stocks To Watch Out Today Aurobindo Pharma, Century Textiles, Crompton Greaves, Federal bank, FT, HUL, Hind. Zinc, Indian Hotels, India Cement, ITC, JP Associates, JpPower, JSW Steel, Jubilant Food, L&T, PNB, REC, Tata Global, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Union Bank Bharat Forge, Dish TV, GAIL, Hexaware, ICICI Bank, Lupin, M&M, Maruti Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com