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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                    16th February 2012
         Indices *              Close           % Chg.     Mirroring the positive Asian market cues, the domestic
 BSE SENSEX                    18202.41           1.98     markets witnessed a firm opening. Steady buying support
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5531.95           2.14     was witnessed as markets traded above the 5400 level. The
 NIFTY FEB. FUT.                5552.55           2.06     markets showed no signs of weakness though occasional
 India VIX                       22.10           -2.68     bouts of profit taking and selling pressure were witnessed.
                                                           The markets ended the day with handsome gains to close
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                     near the highs for the day. The top gainers for the day were
                     Level 1    Level 2         Level 3    Rel. Power, JP Associates, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, DLF,
Support               5400       5327            5161      Tata Power, Rel. Comm., L&T, BHEL and Sterlite.
Resistance            5681       5728            5885
                                                           Technically, the market breadth remained robust amidst
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                      higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets.
50 Day SMA                      4952.19                    The Nifty has managed to sustain above the crucial 5400
                                               ◄Negative
100 Day SMA                     4984.27                    level. The KST and Stochastic have once again moved
200 Day SMA                     5173.08        ◄Positive
                                                           above their respective averages. The RSI and MACD are
                                                           already placed above their respective averages. More so
             Volume (Lacs Shares)          *               KST and MACD are placed in the positive, which augurs
                   15/02/12    14/02/12         % Chg.     well for the markets. The Nifty remains placed above its
BSE                  4316        3371            28.03     50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA, which is a positive
NSE                 13139        9287            41.48
                                                           sign for the markets. The Nifty remains placed above its
                                                           April’2011 descending trend line. The -DI line is moving
Total               17455       12658            37.90
                                                           lower. However, the ADX line and +DI line are placed
             Turnover ( ` Crores)          *               above the 30 level and moving higher, indicating buyers
                   15/02/12    14/02/12         % Chg.
                                                           have an upper hand. All these positive conditions would
                                                           help in fueling buying support at regular intervals.
BSE                 4139.38     3556.76          16.38
                                                           However, a few prevailing technical negatives are likely
NSE                18737.39    13285.28          41.04
                                                           to weigh on market sentiment. The KST, RSI, MACD and
NSE F&O            171858.87   103255.13         66.44     Stochastic are all placed in the over bought zone. The 50-
Total              194735.64   120097.17         62.15     day SMA continues to remain placed below the 100-day
                                                           SMA. All these conditions would lead to regular bouts of
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)              *
                                                           profit taking and selling pressure. The market sentiment
                   15/02/12    14/02/12         % Chg.
                                                           remains cautious as markets are placed in the over
Index Fut.          545325      361700           50.77     bought zone. Now, it is important that the markets
Stock Fut.          840598      616051           36.45     witness follow up buying support at regular intervals for
Index Opt.         4483921     2562352           74.99     the Nifty to sustain above the 5400 level and to test the
Stock Opt.          276977      204080           35.72     5681 resistance level. Intermediate bouts of profit taking
Total              6146821     3744183           53.27     and selling pressure are likely to be witnessed amidst
                                                           volatile and choppy trade. In the meanwhile the markets
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                        would take cues from the earnings season, the global
Advances                         1064                      markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty
Declines                          427                      are placed at 5400, 5327, 5161 and 5037. The Nifty faces
Same                              66                       resistance at the 5681, 5728 and 5885 levels.
Total                            1557
A/D Ratio                       2.49 : 1
NOTE -   *- Source – BSE & NSE
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                    Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                                 Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                                  Stop
                                                     Initiation        Stop       Loss                      Target
       Stock           Close          Action           Price          Loss *       (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
Allahabad Bank           195.50      Buy Above            197.00       193.00        2.03          206           4.57
BGR Energy               295.00      Buy Above            301.00       281.50        6.48          344          14.29
BHEL                     277.10      Buy Above            280.00       271.00        3.21          300           7.14
DLF                      248.85      Buy Above            252.00       241.50        4.17          275           9.13
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.


                                                               Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
       Indices            Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                 S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   18202                18145       18289      18376          18607         18058        17914         17683
S&P CNX NIFTY                 5532                 5512        5563        5593          5675            5481        5430         5349
NIFTY FEB. FUT.               5553                 5531        5586        5620          5710            5497        5441         5352




                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           th
          4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are
required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any
jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable
though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected
with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their
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material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including
those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s
price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a company’s fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to
update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
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statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment
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The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal
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was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior
written consent.




                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
     th
    4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                     www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 160212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 16th February 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Mirroring the positive Asian market cues, the domestic BSE SENSEX 18202.41 1.98 markets witnessed a firm opening. Steady buying support S&P CNX NIFTY 5531.95 2.14 was witnessed as markets traded above the 5400 level. The NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5552.55 2.06 markets showed no signs of weakness though occasional India VIX 22.10 -2.68 bouts of profit taking and selling pressure were witnessed. The markets ended the day with handsome gains to close S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels near the highs for the day. The top gainers for the day were Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Rel. Power, JP Associates, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, DLF, Support 5400 5327 5161 Tata Power, Rel. Comm., L&T, BHEL and Sterlite. Resistance 5681 5728 5885 Technically, the market breadth remained robust amidst Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. 50 Day SMA 4952.19 The Nifty has managed to sustain above the crucial 5400 ◄Negative 100 Day SMA 4984.27 level. The KST and Stochastic have once again moved 200 Day SMA 5173.08 ◄Positive above their respective averages. The RSI and MACD are already placed above their respective averages. More so Volume (Lacs Shares) * KST and MACD are placed in the positive, which augurs 15/02/12 14/02/12 % Chg. well for the markets. The Nifty remains placed above its BSE 4316 3371 28.03 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA, which is a positive NSE 13139 9287 41.48 sign for the markets. The Nifty remains placed above its April’2011 descending trend line. The -DI line is moving Total 17455 12658 37.90 lower. However, the ADX line and +DI line are placed Turnover ( ` Crores) * above the 30 level and moving higher, indicating buyers 15/02/12 14/02/12 % Chg. have an upper hand. All these positive conditions would help in fueling buying support at regular intervals. BSE 4139.38 3556.76 16.38 However, a few prevailing technical negatives are likely NSE 18737.39 13285.28 41.04 to weigh on market sentiment. The KST, RSI, MACD and NSE F&O 171858.87 103255.13 66.44 Stochastic are all placed in the over bought zone. The 50- Total 194735.64 120097.17 62.15 day SMA continues to remain placed below the 100-day SMA. All these conditions would lead to regular bouts of F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * profit taking and selling pressure. The market sentiment 15/02/12 14/02/12 % Chg. remains cautious as markets are placed in the over Index Fut. 545325 361700 50.77 bought zone. Now, it is important that the markets Stock Fut. 840598 616051 36.45 witness follow up buying support at regular intervals for Index Opt. 4483921 2562352 74.99 the Nifty to sustain above the 5400 level and to test the Stock Opt. 276977 204080 35.72 5681 resistance level. Intermediate bouts of profit taking Total 6146821 3744183 53.27 and selling pressure are likely to be witnessed amidst volatile and choppy trade. In the meanwhile the markets Market Breadth (NSE) * would take cues from the earnings season, the global Advances 1064 markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty Declines 427 are placed at 5400, 5327, 5161 and 5037. The Nifty faces Same 66 resistance at the 5681, 5728 and 5885 levels. Total 1557 A/D Ratio 2.49 : 1 NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Allahabad Bank 195.50 Buy Above 197.00 193.00 2.03 206 4.57 BGR Energy 295.00 Buy Above 301.00 281.50 6.48 344 14.29 BHEL 277.10 Buy Above 280.00 271.00 3.21 300 7.14 DLF 248.85 Buy Above 252.00 241.50 4.17 275 9.13 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 18202 18145 18289 18376 18607 18058 17914 17683 S&P CNX NIFTY 5532 5512 5563 5593 5675 5481 5430 5349 NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5553 5531 5586 5620 5710 5497 5441 5352 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com