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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                          24th December 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                         Markets under pressure
 BSE SENSEX                    19242.00             -1.09
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5847.70             -1.16
                                                              Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets
                                                              witnessed a gap down opening. Sustained selling pressure
 NIFTY DEC. FUT.                5853.40             -1.31
                                                              was witnessed as markets drifted lower and breached the
 India VIX                        14.63             2.16
                                                              5885 support level. The markets failed to show any resilience
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        against selling pressure. Occasional bouts of short covering
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        were witnessed but buying support remained elusive. The
Support           5816          5747            5665
                                                              markets ended the day with modest losses to close near the
                                                              lows for the day. The top losers for the day were JP
Resistance        5885          5945            6135
                                                              Associates, Jindal Steel, IDFC, Sesa Goa, Hindalco, DLF,
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         Ambuja Cement, Bharti Airtel, PNB and Lupin.
50 Day SMA                     5741.25        ◄Positive
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained negative
100 Day SMA                    5585.86
                                                              amidst lower volumes. The markets continued to remain
200 Day SMA                    5370.40                        under pressure on back of the prevailing technical
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE
                                                              negatives which would continue to weigh on the market
                                                              sentiment. The negative divergence pattern formed on
Advances                             979               357
                                                              the Nifty still holds good. The Stochastic and KST have
Declines                            1939             1167
                                                              again slipped below their respective averages. Moreover,
Same                                 101                 74   the RSI and the MACD are already below their respective
Total                               3019             1598     averages. These negative technical conditions would
A/D Ratio                        0.51 : 1          0.31 : 1   lead to further selling pressure. However, the prevailing
                                                              technical positive conditions still hold good. The MACD
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   and KST are also placed in the positive territory. The
               21/12/12        20/12/12        % Chg.         Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA
BSE                    2477         2998            -17.38    and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains
NSE                    7177         8164            -12.09    placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the
Total                  9654       11162             -13.51    later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These
                                                              positive conditions would lead to short covering at
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   regular intervals. However, the market sentiment remains
               21/12/12        20/12/12        % Chg.         cautious as the Nifty index continues to trade below the
BSE                  2226.13     2437.32             -8.66    5945 resistance level. Now, it is important that the Nifty
NSE              12063.17       11924.38              1.16    witnesses buying support for the Nifty to test the 5945
NSE F&O         183544.36 169685.14                   8.17    level and move above it. It Nifty fails then further down
Total           197833.66 184046.84                   7.49
                                                              slide is expected and Nifty could test the 5800-5750 level
                                                              in the near future. Pull back rallies should be used as an
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              opportunity to create short positions until the Nifty spot
               21/12/12        20/12/12        % Chg.         index closes above the 5950 level. In the meanwhile the
Index Fut.           495679      355440             39.46
                                                              markets would take cues from the global markets, Rupee
                                                              and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed
Stock Fut.           922096      813261             13.38
                                                              at 5816, 5747 and 5665. The Nifty faces resistance at 5885,
Index Opt.        4426502       4148979               6.69
                                                              5945, 6135 and 6313 levels.
Stock Opt.           336423      360853              -6.77
Total             6180700       5678533               4.46

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                 Stop
                                                 Initiation       Stop           Loss
      Stock            Close          Action       Price         Loss *           (%)           Target          Target (%)   Remarks
ABB Fut                 690.00    Sell Below          689.00      698.50           1.38           668.00              3.05
Apollo Tyre Fut          87.35    Sell Below           86.35          88.75        2.78            81.00              6.20

                                                                                                                             TGT of
                                                                                                                             335
                                                                                                                             Achieved
                                                                                                                             given Buy
                                                                                                                             @ 323 on
Bank of India         332.95   Buy Above          335.00    326.50                 2.54           354.00              5.67   19/12/12
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                            Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
      Indices             Close         Pivot Point        R1       R2         R3                   S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   19242             19286       19351         19459          19633        19177           19112      18939
S&P CNX NIFTY                  5848             5859           5877       5905           5952            5830         5813       5766
NIFTY DEC. FUT.                5853             5869           5890       5926           5984            5832         5811       5753




                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks To Watch Out Today
Bank of India, Escorts, Havells, SREI Infra, Tata Steel, TCS, ZEEL
ABB, ACC, Adani Power, Ambuja Cement, Andhra Bank, Apollo Tyre, Bajaj Auto, BGR Energy, Bharat Forge, BPCL, Cairn,
Century Textiles, Coal India, Crompton Greaves, Delta, Dena Bank, Dish TV, Divis Labs, Dr. Reddys, Godrej Inds, HDFC,
HDFC Bank, Hexaware, ICICI Bank, IDBI, IDFC, IFCI, IGL, India Cement, India Infoline, Jet Airways, Jindal Saw, JP
Associiates , JP Power, Kotak Bank, KTK Bank, LIC Hsg; L&T, M&M, McLeod Russel, NHPC, NMDC, NTPC, ONGC,
OnMobile, OBC, PFC, Piramal Healthcare, Powergrid, PTC, Punj Lloyd, Ranbaxy, Raymond, RCOM; REC, Rel. Capital,
Reliance, Rel. Infra, RPower, Sintex, SIB, Sterlite, Sterlite Tech; Sun Pharma, Sun TV, Tata Chem; Tata Global, , Tata Motors,
Tata Power, Tech Mahindra, TTK Prestige, UCO Bank, Ultratech Cemco, Videocon, Vijaya Bank, Voltas, Yes Bank


NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                        www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 241212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 24th December 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets under pressure BSE SENSEX 19242.00 -1.09 S&P CNX NIFTY 5847.70 -1.16 Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a gap down opening. Sustained selling pressure NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5853.40 -1.31 was witnessed as markets drifted lower and breached the India VIX 14.63 2.16 5885 support level. The markets failed to show any resilience S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels against selling pressure. Occasional bouts of short covering Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 were witnessed but buying support remained elusive. The Support 5816 5747 5665 markets ended the day with modest losses to close near the lows for the day. The top losers for the day were JP Resistance 5885 5945 6135 Associates, Jindal Steel, IDFC, Sesa Goa, Hindalco, DLF, Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Ambuja Cement, Bharti Airtel, PNB and Lupin. 50 Day SMA 5741.25 ◄Positive Technically, the market breadth remained negative 100 Day SMA 5585.86 amidst lower volumes. The markets continued to remain 200 Day SMA 5370.40 under pressure on back of the prevailing technical Market Breadth * BSE NSE negatives which would continue to weigh on the market sentiment. The negative divergence pattern formed on Advances 979 357 the Nifty still holds good. The Stochastic and KST have Declines 1939 1167 again slipped below their respective averages. Moreover, Same 101 74 the RSI and the MACD are already below their respective Total 3019 1598 averages. These negative technical conditions would A/D Ratio 0.51 : 1 0.31 : 1 lead to further selling pressure. However, the prevailing technical positive conditions still hold good. The MACD Volume (Lacs Shares) * and KST are also placed in the positive territory. The 21/12/12 20/12/12 % Chg. Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA BSE 2477 2998 -17.38 and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains NSE 7177 8164 -12.09 placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the Total 9654 11162 -13.51 later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to short covering at Turnover ( ` Crores) * regular intervals. However, the market sentiment remains 21/12/12 20/12/12 % Chg. cautious as the Nifty index continues to trade below the BSE 2226.13 2437.32 -8.66 5945 resistance level. Now, it is important that the Nifty NSE 12063.17 11924.38 1.16 witnesses buying support for the Nifty to test the 5945 NSE F&O 183544.36 169685.14 8.17 level and move above it. It Nifty fails then further down Total 197833.66 184046.84 7.49 slide is expected and Nifty could test the 5800-5750 level in the near future. Pull back rallies should be used as an F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * opportunity to create short positions until the Nifty spot 21/12/12 20/12/12 % Chg. index closes above the 5950 level. In the meanwhile the Index Fut. 495679 355440 39.46 markets would take cues from the global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed Stock Fut. 922096 813261 13.38 at 5816, 5747 and 5665. The Nifty faces resistance at 5885, Index Opt. 4426502 4148979 6.69 5945, 6135 and 6313 levels. Stock Opt. 336423 360853 -6.77 Total 6180700 5678533 4.46 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks ABB Fut 690.00 Sell Below 689.00 698.50 1.38 668.00 3.05 Apollo Tyre Fut 87.35 Sell Below 86.35 88.75 2.78 81.00 6.20 TGT of 335 Achieved given Buy @ 323 on Bank of India 332.95 Buy Above 335.00 326.50 2.54 354.00 5.67 19/12/12 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19242 19286 19351 19459 19633 19177 19112 18939 S&P CNX NIFTY 5848 5859 5877 5905 5952 5830 5813 5766 NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5853 5869 5890 5926 5984 5832 5811 5753 Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks To Watch Out Today Bank of India, Escorts, Havells, SREI Infra, Tata Steel, TCS, ZEEL ABB, ACC, Adani Power, Ambuja Cement, Andhra Bank, Apollo Tyre, Bajaj Auto, BGR Energy, Bharat Forge, BPCL, Cairn, Century Textiles, Coal India, Crompton Greaves, Delta, Dena Bank, Dish TV, Divis Labs, Dr. Reddys, Godrej Inds, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hexaware, ICICI Bank, IDBI, IDFC, IFCI, IGL, India Cement, India Infoline, Jet Airways, Jindal Saw, JP Associiates , JP Power, Kotak Bank, KTK Bank, LIC Hsg; L&T, M&M, McLeod Russel, NHPC, NMDC, NTPC, ONGC, OnMobile, OBC, PFC, Piramal Healthcare, Powergrid, PTC, Punj Lloyd, Ranbaxy, Raymond, RCOM; REC, Rel. Capital, Reliance, Rel. Infra, RPower, Sintex, SIB, Sterlite, Sterlite Tech; Sun Pharma, Sun TV, Tata Chem; Tata Global, , Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tech Mahindra, TTK Prestige, UCO Bank, Ultratech Cemco, Videocon, Vijaya Bank, Voltas, Yes Bank NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com