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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                    25th May 2012
         Indices *          Close          % Chg.       The domestic markets witnessed a positive opening on back
 BSE SENSEX                16222.30          1.72       of the government announcing the petrol price hike. Short
 S&P CNX NIFTY              4921.40          1.77       covering and follow up buying support was witnessed at
 NIFTY May FUT.             4913.10          2.05       higher levels as the Nifty moved above the 4900 level. It
 India VIX                   25.49           -6.04      struggled around the 4900 on back of profit taking and selling
                                                        pressure but managed a bounce back to move higher closing
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                  near the 4950 level. The markets ended the day with
                 Level 1    Level 2         Level 3     moderate gains to close near the highs for the day. The top
Support           4777       4742            4624       gainers for the day were ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Ranbaxy,
Resistance        4950       5070            5106       HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda, IDFC, Rel. Infra, Axis Bank,
                                                        ICICI Bank and Jindal Steel.
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY
50 Day SMA                  5164.87                     Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst
100 Day SMA                 5179.33                     higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets.
200 Day SMA                 5073.93        â—„ Critical   The global market cues are divergent. The domestic
                                                        markets are likely to witness a flat opening. Yesterday
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                     the markets witnessed a pull back rally on back of the
Advances                      914                       RSI being placed around the over sold zone. The RSI and
Declines                      524                       KST have moved above their respective averages.
Same                           81                       Moreover, the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above
Total                        1519                       Nifty’s 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 100-day SMA is placed
A/D Ratio                   1.74 : 1
                                                        above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positive technical
                                                        conditions would lead to regular bouts of buying support
             Volume (Lacs Shares)      *                and short covering, which would lead to intermediate
               24/05/12     23/05/12        % Chg.      bouts of relief rally. However, the prevailing technical
BSE              2025        1710            18.42
                                                        negatives continue to hold good and are likely to cap
                                                        upside gains. The Stochastic and MACD are still placed
NSE              5244        4964            5.63
                                                        below their respective averages. More so the KST and
Total            7269        6674            8.91
                                                        MACD are placed in the negative territory and warn of
             Turnover ( ` Crores)      *                impending selling pressure. The Nifty remains placed
               24/05/12     23/05/12        % Chg.
                                                        below its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
                                                        Moreover, the 50-day SMA has slipped below its 100-day
BSE             1945.50     1821.04          6.83
                                                        SMA. These negative technical conditions would lead to
NSE             9052.11     8439.38          7.26
                                                        selling pressure at regular intervals. Though the ADX line
NSE F&O        166423.31   136899.22         21.57      and -DI line are trending these have started declining
Total          177420.92   147159.64         20.56      indicating sellers are covering their shorts. The market
                                                        sentiment remains tentative. Now it is important that the
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)          *
                                                        markets witness follow up buying support at higher
               24/05/12     23/05/12        % Chg.
                                                        levels for Nifty to test and sustain above the 4950
Index Fut.      694100      565629           22.71      resistance level. In the meanwhile the markets would
Stock Fut.      597841      480313           24.47      take cues from the USDINR, global markets and the
Index Opt.     5357046      4440453          20.64      crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 4777,
Stock Opt.      223972      194627           15.08      4742, 4624 and 4530. The Nifty faces resistance at the 4950,
Total          6872959      5681022          16.65      5070, 5106 and 5250 levels.
NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                  Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                               Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                                th
                     The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                             www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                               Stop
                                                   Initiation        Stop      Loss                      Target
      Stock            Close         Action          Price          Loss *      (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
Apollo Tyre              87.55      Buy Above              88         84.75        3.80          95           7.83
Dr. Reddys             1707.00      Buy Above            1717       1686.00        1.81        1785           3.96
Fortis                   99.00   Buy Above            100             95.50        4.50         110          10.00
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                            Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
      Indices            Close         Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                  16222               16136      16338       16454         16772        16021         15819       15501
S&P CNX NIFTY                4921                4894        4959       4996          5098            4857        4793       4691
NIFTY MAY FUT.               4913                4883        4955       4996          5109            4842        4771       4658




                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                               th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks to watch out today

Apollo Tyre, Areva, Aurobindo Pharma, Axis Bank, Bajaj Holdings, Coal India, havells, HDFC, Hindalco, IDFC, M&M, Mcleod
Russel, ONGC, Pantaloon Retail, PTC, ranbaxy, Rel. Capital, Tata Comm; Tata Global, Vijaya Bank, Wipro, Yes Bank
BPCL, Cairn India, HPCL, IOC, JP Associates, Oil India, Sobha, Sun TV, TTK Prestige, TTML, Voltas




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      This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
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      required to observe these restrictions.
      This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
      upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any
      jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
      Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
      objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
      We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable
      though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected
      with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their
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      material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including
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      written consent.




                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                              th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 250512

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 25th May 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. The domestic markets witnessed a positive opening on back BSE SENSEX 16222.30 1.72 of the government announcing the petrol price hike. Short S&P CNX NIFTY 4921.40 1.77 covering and follow up buying support was witnessed at NIFTY May FUT. 4913.10 2.05 higher levels as the Nifty moved above the 4900 level. It India VIX 25.49 -6.04 struggled around the 4900 on back of profit taking and selling pressure but managed a bounce back to move higher closing S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels near the 4950 level. The markets ended the day with Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 moderate gains to close near the highs for the day. The top Support 4777 4742 4624 gainers for the day were ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Ranbaxy, Resistance 4950 5070 5106 HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda, IDFC, Rel. Infra, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Jindal Steel. Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY 50 Day SMA 5164.87 Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst 100 Day SMA 5179.33 higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. 200 Day SMA 5073.93 â—„ Critical The global market cues are divergent. The domestic markets are likely to witness a flat opening. Yesterday Market Breadth (NSE) * the markets witnessed a pull back rally on back of the Advances 914 RSI being placed around the over sold zone. The RSI and Declines 524 KST have moved above their respective averages. Same 81 Moreover, the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Total 1519 Nifty’s 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 100-day SMA is placed A/D Ratio 1.74 : 1 above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positive technical conditions would lead to regular bouts of buying support Volume (Lacs Shares) * and short covering, which would lead to intermediate 24/05/12 23/05/12 % Chg. bouts of relief rally. However, the prevailing technical BSE 2025 1710 18.42 negatives continue to hold good and are likely to cap upside gains. The Stochastic and MACD are still placed NSE 5244 4964 5.63 below their respective averages. More so the KST and Total 7269 6674 8.91 MACD are placed in the negative territory and warn of Turnover ( ` Crores) * impending selling pressure. The Nifty remains placed 24/05/12 23/05/12 % Chg. below its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Moreover, the 50-day SMA has slipped below its 100-day BSE 1945.50 1821.04 6.83 SMA. These negative technical conditions would lead to NSE 9052.11 8439.38 7.26 selling pressure at regular intervals. Though the ADX line NSE F&O 166423.31 136899.22 21.57 and -DI line are trending these have started declining Total 177420.92 147159.64 20.56 indicating sellers are covering their shorts. The market sentiment remains tentative. Now it is important that the F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * markets witness follow up buying support at higher 24/05/12 23/05/12 % Chg. levels for Nifty to test and sustain above the 4950 Index Fut. 694100 565629 22.71 resistance level. In the meanwhile the markets would Stock Fut. 597841 480313 24.47 take cues from the USDINR, global markets and the Index Opt. 5357046 4440453 20.64 crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 4777, Stock Opt. 223972 194627 15.08 4742, 4624 and 4530. The Nifty faces resistance at the 4950, Total 6872959 5681022 16.65 5070, 5106 and 5250 levels. NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Apollo Tyre 87.55 Buy Above 88 84.75 3.80 95 7.83 Dr. Reddys 1707.00 Buy Above 1717 1686.00 1.81 1785 3.96 Fortis 99.00 Buy Above 100 95.50 4.50 110 10.00 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 16222 16136 16338 16454 16772 16021 15819 15501 S&P CNX NIFTY 4921 4894 4959 4996 5098 4857 4793 4691 NIFTY MAY FUT. 4913 4883 4955 4996 5109 4842 4771 4658 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks to watch out today Apollo Tyre, Areva, Aurobindo Pharma, Axis Bank, Bajaj Holdings, Coal India, havells, HDFC, Hindalco, IDFC, M&M, Mcleod Russel, ONGC, Pantaloon Retail, PTC, ranbaxy, Rel. Capital, Tata Comm; Tata Global, Vijaya Bank, Wipro, Yes Bank BPCL, Cairn India, HPCL, IOC, JP Associates, Oil India, Sobha, Sun TV, TTK Prestige, TTML, Voltas Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com