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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                          28th December 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.               Markets end expiry on lackluster note
 BSE SENSEX                    19323.80             -0.48
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5870.10             -0.60
                                                              The domestic markets witnessed a positive opening.
                                                              However, sustained selling pressure and profit taking saw the
 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.              5930.30             0.28
                                                              markets come off the highs for the day. The over all trend
 India VIX                        13.74             -2.55
                                                              remained lackluster. The markets failed to show any
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        resilience against sustained selling pressure. The markets
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        ended the day with moderate losses to close near the lows
Support           5816          5747            5665
                                                              for the day. The top losers for the day were GAIL, Jindal
                                                              Steel, BHEL, Powergrid, JP Associates, M&M, Sun Pharma,
Resistance        5885          5945            6135
                                                              HCL Tech; IDFC and BPCL.
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained positive
50 Day SMA                     5753.16        ◄Positive
                                                              amidst higher volumes. The prevailing technical
100 Day SMA                    5606.88
                                                              negatives weighed on the market sentiment as markets
200 Day SMA                    5379.67                        failed to capitalize on Wednesdays gains. The negative
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE
                                                              divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good.
                                                              The Stochastic, KST, RSI and MACD are placed below
Advances                            1228               360
                                                              their respective averages. These negative technical
Declines                            1664               738
                                                              conditions would lead to further selling pressure.
Same                                 134                 53   However, the prevailing technical positive conditions still
Total                               3026             1151     hold good.. The MACD and KST are also placed in the
A/D Ratio                        1.08 : 1          1.21 : 1   positive territory. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-
                                                              day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and
               27/12/12        26/12/12        % Chg.         200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Cross
BSE                    2368         2058            15.06     breakout’. These positive conditions are likely to help the
NSE                    9176         6130            49.68     markets take support at lower levels Though the +DI line
Total                 11544         8188            40.98     is placed above the –DI line, the ADX line is moving
                                                              sideways indicating a range bound trend. The market
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty index continues
               27/12/12        26/12/12        % Chg.         to trade below the 5945 resistance level. Now, it is
BSE                  2519.61     2410.67              4.52    important that the Nifty witnesses buying support for the
NSE              13808.16        9030.03            52.91     Nifty to test the 5945 level and move above it. If Nifty fails
NSE F&O         227769.68 185991.97                 22.46     then further down slide is expected and Nifty could test
Total           244097.45 197432.67                 23.64
                                                              the 5800-5750 level in the near future. Pull back rallies
                                                              should be used as an opportunity to create short
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              positions until the Nifty spot index closes above the 5950
               27/12/12        26/12/12        % Chg.         level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from
Index Fut.           498513      395277             26.12
                                                              the global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The
                                1021652
                                                              support levels for Nifty are placed at 5816, 5747 and 5665.
Stock Fut.        1230003                           20.39
                                                              The Nifty faces resistance at 5885, 5945, 6135 and 6313
Index Opt.        5525984       4520089             22.25
                                                              levels.
Stock Opt.           356178      291372             22.24
Total             7610678       6228390             22.19

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                    Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                      Stop
                                                     Initiation        Stop           Loss
         Stock            Close          Action        Price          Loss *           (%)           Target          Target (%)   Remarks
Apollo Tyre Fut             86.40    Sell Below             85.50          87.55        2.40            81.00              5.26


Arvind                     101.40    Buy Above           102.00            99.75        2.21           107.00              4.90
Axis Bank            1364.30   Buy Above         1366.00 1347.55                        1.35         1407.00               3.00
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                                 Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
         Indices             Close         Pivot Point          R1       R2         R3                   S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                      19324               19377       19451         19579          19781        19249           19175     18972
S&P CNX NIFTY                     5870               5889           5912       5955           6021            5846         5822      5756
NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.                 5930               5944           5964       5997           6049            5911         5892      5839




                                                  Stocks To Watch Out Today
Arvind, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Colgate, Cummins, Glaxo, Idea, IOC, JP Power, LIC hsg; NHPC, SBI, Tata Motors, Tech
Mahindra, Yes Bank
AB Nuvo, Adani Ports, Apollo Tyre, Asian Paints, Aurobindo Pharma, Bajaj Hind; BGR Energy, BPCL, Cairn, CESC, Chambal
Fert; Delta Corp; Dena Bank, Dish TV, GAIL, GE Shipping, Grasim, Havells, HCC, HCL Tech; hero Motocorp; Hexaware,
Hindalco, HUL, Hind. Zinc, IFCI, Indusind Bank, Infosys Tech; Jindal Steel, JSW Energy, Jubilant Food, M&M,
McLeod Russel, MRF, MRPL, MTNL, NCC, Polaris, Powergrid, PTC, Ranbaxy, REC, Rolta, Sterlite, Tata Comm; Tata Global
TTK Prestige, UCO Bank, Uniphos, Voltas, Welcorp, ZEEL

                                                              Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                 The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                              www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 281212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 28th December 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets end expiry on lackluster note BSE SENSEX 19323.80 -0.48 S&P CNX NIFTY 5870.10 -0.60 The domestic markets witnessed a positive opening. However, sustained selling pressure and profit taking saw the NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 5930.30 0.28 markets come off the highs for the day. The over all trend India VIX 13.74 -2.55 remained lackluster. The markets failed to show any S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels resilience against sustained selling pressure. The markets Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 ended the day with moderate losses to close near the lows Support 5816 5747 5665 for the day. The top losers for the day were GAIL, Jindal Steel, BHEL, Powergrid, JP Associates, M&M, Sun Pharma, Resistance 5885 5945 6135 HCL Tech; IDFC and BPCL. Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Technically, the market breadth remained positive 50 Day SMA 5753.16 ◄Positive amidst higher volumes. The prevailing technical 100 Day SMA 5606.88 negatives weighed on the market sentiment as markets 200 Day SMA 5379.67 failed to capitalize on Wednesdays gains. The negative Market Breadth * BSE NSE divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good. The Stochastic, KST, RSI and MACD are placed below Advances 1228 360 their respective averages. These negative technical Declines 1664 738 conditions would lead to further selling pressure. Same 134 53 However, the prevailing technical positive conditions still Total 3026 1151 hold good.. The MACD and KST are also placed in the A/D Ratio 1.08 : 1 1.21 : 1 positive territory. The Nifty remains placed above its 50- day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50- Volume (Lacs Shares) * day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 27/12/12 26/12/12 % Chg. 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Cross BSE 2368 2058 15.06 breakout’. These positive conditions are likely to help the NSE 9176 6130 49.68 markets take support at lower levels Though the +DI line Total 11544 8188 40.98 is placed above the –DI line, the ADX line is moving sideways indicating a range bound trend. The market Turnover ( ` Crores) * sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty index continues 27/12/12 26/12/12 % Chg. to trade below the 5945 resistance level. Now, it is BSE 2519.61 2410.67 4.52 important that the Nifty witnesses buying support for the NSE 13808.16 9030.03 52.91 Nifty to test the 5945 level and move above it. If Nifty fails NSE F&O 227769.68 185991.97 22.46 then further down slide is expected and Nifty could test Total 244097.45 197432.67 23.64 the 5800-5750 level in the near future. Pull back rallies should be used as an opportunity to create short F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * positions until the Nifty spot index closes above the 5950 27/12/12 26/12/12 % Chg. level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from Index Fut. 498513 395277 26.12 the global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The 1021652 support levels for Nifty are placed at 5816, 5747 and 5665. Stock Fut. 1230003 20.39 The Nifty faces resistance at 5885, 5945, 6135 and 6313 Index Opt. 5525984 4520089 22.25 levels. Stock Opt. 356178 291372 22.24 Total 7610678 6228390 22.19 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks Apollo Tyre Fut 86.40 Sell Below 85.50 87.55 2.40 81.00 5.26 Arvind 101.40 Buy Above 102.00 99.75 2.21 107.00 4.90 Axis Bank 1364.30 Buy Above 1366.00 1347.55 1.35 1407.00 3.00 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19324 19377 19451 19579 19781 19249 19175 18972 S&P CNX NIFTY 5870 5889 5912 5955 6021 5846 5822 5756 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 5930 5944 5964 5997 6049 5911 5892 5839 Stocks To Watch Out Today Arvind, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Colgate, Cummins, Glaxo, Idea, IOC, JP Power, LIC hsg; NHPC, SBI, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Yes Bank AB Nuvo, Adani Ports, Apollo Tyre, Asian Paints, Aurobindo Pharma, Bajaj Hind; BGR Energy, BPCL, Cairn, CESC, Chambal Fert; Delta Corp; Dena Bank, Dish TV, GAIL, GE Shipping, Grasim, Havells, HCC, HCL Tech; hero Motocorp; Hexaware, Hindalco, HUL, Hind. Zinc, IFCI, Indusind Bank, Infosys Tech; Jindal Steel, JSW Energy, Jubilant Food, M&M, McLeod Russel, MRF, MRPL, MTNL, NCC, Polaris, Powergrid, PTC, Ranbaxy, REC, Rolta, Sterlite, Tata Comm; Tata Global TTK Prestige, UCO Bank, Uniphos, Voltas, Welcorp, ZEEL Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com