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Romanian Business Information Market
Growing Sustainably
October, 2018
Summary
1. Turnover
1.1 Global Perspective
1.2 Biggest Global Vendors
1.3 Romanian Market Overview
1.3.1 Turnover (evolution and estimate)
1.3.2 Market Distribution by Company Type
1.3.3 County Distribution
1.3.4 High-Growth Companies
1.3.5 Leader Board
2. Number of Companies
2.1 Number of Active Companies (evolution and estimate)
2.2 Geographical Distribution
3. Workforce
3.1 Number of Employees (evolution and estimate)
3.2 Employee Average Productivity and Cost
3.3 Workforce Distribution by Company Type
3.4 Top Employers
Romanian Business Information Market
4. Profitability
4.1 Gross Profit
4.2 Net Profit (evolution and estimate)
4.3 Net Result
4.4 Profit Margins
4.5 Most Profitable Companies
4.6 ROE and ROA
5. Indebtedness
5.1 Debt Ratio
5.2 Liabilities and Owner’s Equity
5.3 Shareholder Nationality Structure
5.4 Trade Liabilities
6. Liquidity
6.1 DSO, DPO and Current Ratio
7. Market Risk Matrix
7.1 Altman Z-score Distribution
7.2 Company Risk Transition Diagram
8. Conclusions
8.1 Key Data Summary
8.2 Romanian Business Conditions
8.3 Romanian Economy at a Glance
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 2
Global Business Information Market
▪ The global business information market is expected to grow by a CAGR of 5% to over 41 billion euro in 2020 according to
Technavio and KeysFin calculus.
▪ The US is the biggest player in the market, due mainly to increased demand for business management solutions. The
trend will continue based on an increasing volume of data both from private and government entities that demand more
financial transparency.
1.1 Global Turnover
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
Source: Technavio, KeysFin
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 3
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
(EUR billions)
Actual
2018e – CAGR estimate
Global Business Information Market
▪ The biggest global players, Bloomberg and Reuters lost market share to the smaller financial data providers in 2017,
underlining the global finance industry’s shift away from desktop terminals that have long enjoyed a grip on this market.
However, we note that both players have developed new services to support compliance with MiFID II, the European
financial regulation that came into force in January 2018.
▪ The market continues to be challenging to analyse as the business model of most of the players includes other scopes of
activity and the official segregated information is not available. Dow Jones for example is part of News Corp and it
generates approximately 60% of the group’s revenues.
5.0 B
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 4
Thomson Reuters
9.4 News Corp
(Dow Jones)
6.8
Bloomberg
8
RELX
6.1
Wolters
Kluwer
4.4
Experian
3.6
Equifax
2.8
Dun&Bradstreet
1.5
MSCI
1.1
Factset
1
8. Conclusions
1. Turnover
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
1.2 Biggest Global Vendors
(By revenues, 2017, EUR billions)
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ We define the Romanian Business Information Market as
comprising of 22 companies that have business information
services as main scope of activity – identified as such via in
depth qualitative and quantitative research, as most players
in the market generate a considerable share of their
revenues also from other scopes of activity – i.e. debt
collection, etc.
▪ The data used throughout this analysis is the official, non-
adjusted, aggregated data reported by the companies at the
Ministry of Finance (end of period).
▪ All figures are expressed in euro if not provided otherwise
and the exchange rate used is the NBR official rate at the
end of period (B/bn=billion, M/mil=million, K=thousands).
For more detailed analysis please visit our Full and Customised Sector Study sections available at: www.keysfin.com
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 5
Number of
Companies
22
Number of
Employees
243
Turnover
EUR 11.8 M
Net Result
EUR 1.8 M
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
1.3 Overview
(2017)
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ The key factor driving the business information market
growth is the increased demand for risk mitigation.
Companies are exposed to credit, funding, and
operational risks. To mitigate them, managers need to
have access to accurate and timely information about
their business partners and to thoroughly research a
market before entering it for cost optimisation purposes.
▪ The integration of offline and online information
services is one of the major trends that will impact the
market in the foreseeable future.
▪ As estimated in the 2017 edition, the Romanian Business
Information Market returned to growth, after a
consolidation phase in 2016. In 2018 we estimate an
increase of 3.4% to EUR 12.2 million. We consider that a
major opportunity consists in benefiting from the
momentum generated by the domestic software
evolution.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 6
5 year evolution: +18%2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
1.3.1 Turnover
(EUR millions)
Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate Annual variation (%)
Romanian Business Information Market
The market comprised in 2017 of:
– one medium company,
– 9 small companies,
– 12 micro companies.
The largest share of the turnover (55%) was generated by
the small companies.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 7
COMPANY TYPE
TURNOVER
(EUR)
NUMBER OF
EMPLOYEES
TOTAL ASSETS*
(EUR)
corporate > 50 M ≥250 > 43 M
medium ≤ 50 M <250 ≤ 43 M
small ≤ 10 M <50 ≤ 43 M
micro ≤ 2 M <10 ≤ 2 M
* indicator used only in case of inconsistencies
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
1.3.2 Market Distribution by Company Type
(By turnover and number of companies, 2017)
medium small micro
Romanian Business Information Market
We define the high-growth companies (18% of the total) as
recording a turnover increase of more than 20% in 2
consecutive years.
Bucharest accounts for more than 72% of the domestic
business market turnover (EUR 8.5 million), followed by
Ilfov with 17% (EUR 2 million). These two counties account
for almost 90% of the market.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 8
313 K 569 M
Turnover:
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
1.3.3 County Distribution
(By 2017 turnover, EUR)
1.3.4 High-Growth Companies
(Number of companies, 2017)
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ The market consists of a small number of business information companies including international and regional vendors
and is highly competitive. It will continue to be so as the use of business information is going to increase.
▪ The biggest 3 companies account for 64% of the market and compete mainly on service customisation, portfolio and
pricing. Most notably, KeysFin SRL sustainably gained market share in the past 2 years, ranking 3rd in 2017.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 9
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
1.3.5 Leader Board
(By 2017 turnover, EUR millions; percent of total, %)
Coface CMS SRL
4.4
37%
ICAP B.I. SRL
2.0
17%
KeysFin
SRL
1.2
10%
Borg Design SRL
0.8
7.1%
IT Experts SRL
0.7
5.6%
Romanian Business Information Market
As mentioned in the previous, 2017 business information
market report, we expect the market consolidation process
to continue. In July 2018, Credit Info, the 8th player by
turnover was deregistered and its portfolio is to be
absorbed by other companies.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 10
Most of the business information companies are based in
Bucharest (60%), followed by Timisoara (9%).
5 year evolution: +16%
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
2.1 Number of Active Companies 2.2 County Distribution
(By number of companies, 2017)
Actual Estimate
Romanian Business Information Market
The work force has decreased in the last few years due to
the biggest players’ consolidation and automatization
processes. The hunt for developing innovative
technologies and the current crisis in the domestic labour
market will define the trend in the medium term.
The Employee average cost (Personnel Expenses/Average
number of employees) represented 30% of the Employee
average productivity (Turnover/Average number of
employees). The productivity increased by 45% in the last 5
years to EUR 48.5K whereas the cost increased by 16% to
EUR 14K.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 11
5 year evolution: -19%
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
3.1 Average Number of Employees
(EUR thousands per employee)
3.2 Employee Productivity and Cost
60% of Productivity
80% of Productivity
Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate Annual variation (%) Employee average cost Employee average productivity
Romanian Business Information Market
In the last 5 years the number of companies that had no
employees decreased from 7 to 1 in 2017.
The biggest employer had a personnel of 53 (-8.6% when
compared to 2016), representing 22% of the domestic
business information related workforce.
By company type, the micro and small companies employ
the rest, meaning more than three quarters of the total
domestic business information workforce.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 12
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
3.3 Workforce Distribution
(By company type, 2017)
3.4 Top Employers in 2017
(By number of employees; % of total)
Coface CMS SRL
53
22%
Borg
Design
SRL
23
6.1%
KeysFin
SRL
21
5.2%
Risco SRL
19
4%
ICAP B.I. SRL
35
26.8%
medium small micro
Romanian Business Information Market
The business information market net profit increased by
81% to EUR 1.96 million in the last 5 years and by 21% when
compared to 2016. For 2018 we estimate an increase of
18% to over EUR 2.3 million.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 13
5 year evolution: +81%
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
4.1 Revenues, Expenses & Gross Profit
(EUR millions)
4.2 Net Profit
(EUR millions)
The business information market gross profit (Total
revenues minus expenses) increased by 80% to EUR 2.2
million in the last 5 years.
Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate Annual variation (%)Total revenues Total expenses
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ The business information net result (net profit minus net loss) increased by 87.5% to EUR 1.8 million in the last 5 years and
by 18.7% when compared to 2016.
▪ For 2018 we estimate an increase of 10% to almost EUR 2.2 million.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 14
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
4.3 Net Result
(EUR millions)
Coface CMS SRL
492
25%
ICAP B.I. SRL
489
25%
KeysFin SRL
351
18%
Borg Design
112
6%
IT Experts
93
5%
Romanian Business Information Market
Both EBIT and Net Profit Margins continued to increase
substantially in 2017 and remained almost 3 times higher
than the economy averages of 6.6% and 5.3%.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 15
The most profitable company last year was Coface Romania,
with over 25% of the overall domestic business information
profit. However, we note the decrease from almost half of
the overall profit in 2016 in favour of ICAP and KeysFin. The 3
most profitable companies account for more than two thirds
of the market’s positive result.
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
4.4 Net and EBIT Profit Margins
(Net Result/Turnover, EBIT/Turnover)
4.5 Most Profitable Companies
(2017, EUR thousands)
Net Margin EBIT margin
Romanian Business Information Market
With a Return on Equity (ROE) of over 55% in 2017 and
despite a 15 percentage points decrease from 2016, this
market is among the leaders in terms of maximizing the
profit earned by the shareholders for their investment in
the company.
The healthy Return on Assets (ROA) of almost 28% indicates
a very good management in employing the market’s total
assets to obtaining a much higher profitability than the
domestic overall average (8% in 2017).
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 16
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
4.6 ROE
(ROE=Net Result/Owner’s Equity, %)
4.6 ROE&ROA
(ROA=Net Result/Total Assets, %)
ROE
ROA
Romanian Business Information Market
The debt ratio compares the market’s total debt to its total
assets. The indicator has decreased to a minimum of
46.8% in 2017 and it was 7 percentage points lower than
the overall economy.
As opposed to the overall economy where the capital covers
42% of financing needs, this sector has more than 52% of
them covered by own funds.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 17
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
5.1 Debt Ratio
(Total Liabilities/Total Assets, %)
5.2 Liabilities&Owner’s Equity
(2017, EUR millions)
Romanian Business Information Market
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 18
▪ Most Owner’s Equity is domestic, with local investors
controlling close to 47% of the market (KeysFin is the
only company in Top 3 with 100% Romanian capital).
▪ Austrian capital accounts from almost 30% (Coface CMS
SRL) whereas ICAP, the second player is owned by
Cyprus-based investors.
▪ The Shareholder Nationality Structure was calculated as
a percentage of positive Owner’s Equity for data
consistency purposes.Austria CyprusRomania
46.5%
29.5%
25%
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
5.3 Shareholder Nationality Structure
(% of Owner’s Equity, 2017)
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ Funding risks emerge when an enterprise is unable to obtain sufficient funds to meets its financial requirements.
▪ The trade liabilities of the business information market are 7 percentage points higher than the overall economy average,
respectively at 39% of total company debt in 2017.
▪ On the upside, the Late Payments and the Arrears to Suppliers are 27% respectively 10% lower than 5 years ago.
Total Liabilities
2.97 M
Trade Liabilities
1.09 M
Arrears to Suppliers
397 K
Late Payments
403 K
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 19
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
5.4 Trade Liabilities
(2017, EUR)
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ The circles represent the value for the Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) and measure the ability of the
market to cover its short-term liabilities using only its current assets.
▪ Days Sales Outstanding (Receivables/Turnover*365) and Days Payable Outstanding (Current Liabilities/Turnover*365) were
reversed when compared to the overall economy with the latter being lower than the former. Together, the 3 indicators
point to an above the economy average liquidity position.
For an in-depth customer base analysis please visit our Client Portfolio Management Solutions available at: www.keysfin.com
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 20
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
6.1 DSO, DPO & Current Ratio
(Number of days, Current Assets/Current Liabilities)
Current Ratio
Days Sales Outstanding
Days Payable Outstanding
Romanian Business Information Market
The Sector Risk Matrix is computed using Altman z-score for services and the three categories represent:
▪ Considerable risk (5 companies): the company faces financial difficulties and is viewed as being risky by its creditors;
▪ Uncertainty zone (3 companies): distress may or may not be impending;
▪ Low risk (14 companies): the financial base and the operations are healthy. General unfavourable factors will not have
crucial impact.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 21
2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
7.1 Altman Z-score Distribution
(2017)
Considerable risk
Uncertainty zone
Low risk
Romanian Business Information Market
▪ The Graph arch is to be interpreted from the base colour to the corresponding new risk category.
▪ The Diagram shows a low risk level for 14 companies, high risk for 5 and uncertainty for 3 of the players. When compared
to last year’s market report, though the risk level increased, the overall investor confidence remains high (60% of the
companies being categorized as having low risk).
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 22
Also, one company migrated from
Considerable to Low Risk last year.
One company migrated from Low to Uncertainty,
and one from Low to Considerable Risk in 2017.
Low Risk:
14 companies
Considerable Risk:
5 companies
Uncertain:
3 companies2. Number of Companies
3. Workforce
4. Profitability
5. Indebtedness
6. Liquidity
8. Conclusions
7. Market Risk Matrix
1. Turnover
7.2 Company Risk Transition Diagram
(2017 versus 2016)
8. Conclusions
▪ The business information market net profit increased by 81% to EUR 1.96 million
in the last 5 years and by 21% when compared to 2017. For 2018 we estimate an
increase of 18% to over EUR 2.3 million. Both EBIT and Net Profit margins
continued to increase substantially in 2017 and remained almost 3 times higher
than the economy averages of 6.6% and 5.3%.
▪ With a Return on Equity (ROE) of over 55% in 2017 and despite a 15 percentage
points decrease from 2016, this market is among the leaders in terms of
maximizing the profit earned by the shareholders for their investment in the
company.
▪ The debt ratio decreased to a minimum of 46.8% in 2017, 7 percentage points
lower than the overall economy.
▪ Most Shareholder’s Equity is domestic, with local investors controlling close to
47% of total (KeysFin is the only company in Top 3 with 100% local capital).
Austrian capital accounts from almost 30% (Coface CMS SRL) whereas ICAP, the
second player is Cyprus owned.
▪ The Sector Risk Matrix is computed using Altman z-score for services and it
shows a low risk level for 14 companies (60%), high risk for 5 and uncertainty for
3 of the players.
▪ The global business information market is expected to grow by a CAGR of 5% to
over 41 billion euro in 2020. The biggest global players, Bloomberg and Reuters
lost market share to the smaller financial data providers in 2017, but we note
that both players have developed new services to support compliance with MiFID
II, the European financial regulation that came into force in January 2018.
▪ As estimated in the 2017 edition, the Romanian Business Information Market
returned to growth, after a consolidation phase in 2016. In 2018 we estimate an
increase of 3.4% to EUR 12.2 million.
▪ The market last year comprised of one medium company, 7 small and 12 micro.
The largest share of the turnover (55%) was generated by the small companies.
▪ Bucharest accounts for more than 72% of the domestic business market
turnover (EUR 8.5 million), followed by Ilfov with 17% (EUR 2 million).
▪ The biggest 3 companies account for 64% of the market and compete mainly on
service customisation, portfolio and pricing. Most notably, KeysFin SRL
sustainably gained market share in the past 2 years, ranking 3rd last year.
▪ The work force has decreased in the last 5 years by almost 20% to 249
employees due to the biggest players’ consolidation and automatization
processes.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 23
8.1 Key Data Summary
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 24
INDICATORS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 vs 2013
Number of Companies 19 22 22 22 22 15.8%
Turnover (EUR M) 10.0 10.6 11.5 11.0 11.8 17.9%
Average Number of Employees 299 265 257 249 243 -18.7%
Personnel Expenses (EUR M) 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.4 -5.8%
Net Result (EUR M) 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.8 87.5%
Net Margin (%) 9.6% 11.7% 14.4% 13.8% 15.3% 5.7 p.p.
EBIT Margin (%) 12.4% 14.3% 17.4% 17.3% 18.7% 6.3 p.p.
Return on Equity (%) 44.1% 55.6% 61.8% 69.9% 55.4% 11.3 p.p.
Return on Assets (%) 16.7% 24.7% 29.0% 28.1% 28.4% 11.6 p.p.
Days Sales Outstanding 112 93 109 105 113 1.3%
Days Payable Outstanding 120 82 90 92 76 -37.0%
Arrears to Suppliers (EUR, K) 487 632 896 415 354 -27.4%
p.p. – percentage points
8.2 Romanian Business Conditions
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 25
INDICATOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p
2017 vs 2013
Number of companies (K) 641.8 657.8 668.3 676.9 619.2 -3,5%
Number of insolvencies (K) 28.8 20.4 10.5 8.5 8.8 -69.5%
Turnover (EUR B) 238.3 251.4 266.5 274.3 281.3 18.0%
Average number of employees (M) 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.9 -0.6%
Personnel expenses (EUR B) 24.5 26.6 29.3 32.5 35.0 42.9%
Net Result (EUR B) 3.2 4.3 7.2 11.2 14.6 349.9%
Net Margin (%) 1.4% 1.7% 2.7% 4.1% 5.2% 3.8 p.p.
EBIT Margin (%) 3.7% 4.1% 5.0% 6.0% 6.6% 2.9 p.p.
ROE (%) 4.4% 5.4% 8.3% 12.6% 10.4% 6.1 p.p.
ROA (%) 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 3.6% 4.2% 3.0 p.p.
Days Sales Outstanding* 102 101 98 95 90 -11.7%
Days Payable Outstanding* 187 184 176 171 161 -14.1%
Trade Liabilities (EUR B) 57.0 57.9 59.1 71.3 59.5 4.5%
Arrears to Suppliers (EUR B) 12.9 12.9 12.7 11.4 10.0 -22.2%
* For data consistency purposes, as the indicator is computed using Turnover, the Financial Intermediation and Real Estate sectors were excluded.
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved
8.3 Romanian Economy at a Glance
26
▪ Romanian economic growth is expected to decelerate from 7%
past year, to about 4,5% in 2018.
▪ The annual inflation rate will be above the central bank target,
around 3,6% (NBR estimate) at the end of 2018.
▪ We consider that the biggest macroeconomic risks are the
second-round effects of inflationary pressures, the increasing
financing costs and the twin deficits (fiscal and trade) that are
likely to weaken the country’s internal and external financing
position.
▪ The macroeconomic data used, and forecasts are based on
official sources: National/European Institute of Statistics
(NIS/Eurostat), the National Bank (NBR), the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC) and KeysFin
calculus.
8.3 Romanian Economy at a Glance
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 27
INDICATOR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Nominal GDP (bn, lei) 511 534 565 595 637 668 711 762 815 852
Real GDP (%) -7.1 -0.8 1.1 0.6 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.8 6.9 4.5
HICP inflation (%) 5.6 6.1 5.8 3.4 3.2 1.4 -0.4 -1.1 1.1 4.2
Trade balance (% yoy) -6.4 -6.1 -5.6 -5 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -6.3 -6.6
FDI flows (bn, euro) 3.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.4 3.5 4.5 4.59 4.5
NBR policy rate (%) 8 6.25 6 5.25 4 2.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 3.25
3M ROBOR (%) 10.6 6.17 6.05 6.05 2.44 1.71 1.02 0.9 2.05 3
EUR/RON (eop) 4.24 4.26 4.32 4.44 4.47 4.48 4.52 4.54 4.66 4.7
KEY LABOUR MARKET INDICATORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Population (total, 1 mil. pers.) 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 20 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.6
Population (working age:15-64, 1 mil. pers.) 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1
Total employment (mil. pers.) 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4
Unemployment rate (%) 6.5 7 7.2 6.8 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.9 4.9 4.5
Employment rate (% population 15-64) 58.6 60.2 59.3 60.2 60.1 61 61.4 61.6 61.7 61.8
Sources: NIS, NBR, EC, KeysFin calculus* Estimated value
Methodology
October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 28
It measures the period of time a company needs to pay its creditors (expressed in number of days). A high value of this indicator
highlights the company's difficulty to pay its liabilities on time / lack of experience in negotiating a better payout period.
It is a business activity operational efficiency indicator and it expresses the average number of days from the moment of the sale to
the cash collecting one.
The debt ratio compares the sector’s total debt to its total assets. This provides creditors and business partners with a general idea
as to the amount of leverage being used.
It is the indicator that measures the firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities by capitalizing on all its high liquidity current
assets (ie it can be quickly converted into cash).
The compounded annual growth rate is the mean annual growth rate of an indicator over a period longer than three years.CAGR
Current Ratio
Debt Ratio
Days Sales Outstanding
Days Payable Outstanding
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Romanian Business Information Market

  • 1. Romanian Business Information Market Growing Sustainably October, 2018
  • 2. Summary 1. Turnover 1.1 Global Perspective 1.2 Biggest Global Vendors 1.3 Romanian Market Overview 1.3.1 Turnover (evolution and estimate) 1.3.2 Market Distribution by Company Type 1.3.3 County Distribution 1.3.4 High-Growth Companies 1.3.5 Leader Board 2. Number of Companies 2.1 Number of Active Companies (evolution and estimate) 2.2 Geographical Distribution 3. Workforce 3.1 Number of Employees (evolution and estimate) 3.2 Employee Average Productivity and Cost 3.3 Workforce Distribution by Company Type 3.4 Top Employers Romanian Business Information Market 4. Profitability 4.1 Gross Profit 4.2 Net Profit (evolution and estimate) 4.3 Net Result 4.4 Profit Margins 4.5 Most Profitable Companies 4.6 ROE and ROA 5. Indebtedness 5.1 Debt Ratio 5.2 Liabilities and Owner’s Equity 5.3 Shareholder Nationality Structure 5.4 Trade Liabilities 6. Liquidity 6.1 DSO, DPO and Current Ratio 7. Market Risk Matrix 7.1 Altman Z-score Distribution 7.2 Company Risk Transition Diagram 8. Conclusions 8.1 Key Data Summary 8.2 Romanian Business Conditions 8.3 Romanian Economy at a Glance October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 2
  • 3. Global Business Information Market ▪ The global business information market is expected to grow by a CAGR of 5% to over 41 billion euro in 2020 according to Technavio and KeysFin calculus. ▪ The US is the biggest player in the market, due mainly to increased demand for business management solutions. The trend will continue based on an increasing volume of data both from private and government entities that demand more financial transparency. 1.1 Global Turnover 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions Source: Technavio, KeysFin October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 3 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover (EUR billions) Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate
  • 4. Global Business Information Market ▪ The biggest global players, Bloomberg and Reuters lost market share to the smaller financial data providers in 2017, underlining the global finance industry’s shift away from desktop terminals that have long enjoyed a grip on this market. However, we note that both players have developed new services to support compliance with MiFID II, the European financial regulation that came into force in January 2018. ▪ The market continues to be challenging to analyse as the business model of most of the players includes other scopes of activity and the official segregated information is not available. Dow Jones for example is part of News Corp and it generates approximately 60% of the group’s revenues. 5.0 B October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 4 Thomson Reuters 9.4 News Corp (Dow Jones) 6.8 Bloomberg 8 RELX 6.1 Wolters Kluwer 4.4 Experian 3.6 Equifax 2.8 Dun&Bradstreet 1.5 MSCI 1.1 Factset 1 8. Conclusions 1. Turnover 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 1.2 Biggest Global Vendors (By revenues, 2017, EUR billions)
  • 5. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ We define the Romanian Business Information Market as comprising of 22 companies that have business information services as main scope of activity – identified as such via in depth qualitative and quantitative research, as most players in the market generate a considerable share of their revenues also from other scopes of activity – i.e. debt collection, etc. ▪ The data used throughout this analysis is the official, non- adjusted, aggregated data reported by the companies at the Ministry of Finance (end of period). ▪ All figures are expressed in euro if not provided otherwise and the exchange rate used is the NBR official rate at the end of period (B/bn=billion, M/mil=million, K=thousands). For more detailed analysis please visit our Full and Customised Sector Study sections available at: www.keysfin.com October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 5 Number of Companies 22 Number of Employees 243 Turnover EUR 11.8 M Net Result EUR 1.8 M 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 1.3 Overview (2017)
  • 6. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ The key factor driving the business information market growth is the increased demand for risk mitigation. Companies are exposed to credit, funding, and operational risks. To mitigate them, managers need to have access to accurate and timely information about their business partners and to thoroughly research a market before entering it for cost optimisation purposes. ▪ The integration of offline and online information services is one of the major trends that will impact the market in the foreseeable future. ▪ As estimated in the 2017 edition, the Romanian Business Information Market returned to growth, after a consolidation phase in 2016. In 2018 we estimate an increase of 3.4% to EUR 12.2 million. We consider that a major opportunity consists in benefiting from the momentum generated by the domestic software evolution. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 6 5 year evolution: +18%2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 1.3.1 Turnover (EUR millions) Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate Annual variation (%)
  • 7. Romanian Business Information Market The market comprised in 2017 of: – one medium company, – 9 small companies, – 12 micro companies. The largest share of the turnover (55%) was generated by the small companies. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 7 COMPANY TYPE TURNOVER (EUR) NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES TOTAL ASSETS* (EUR) corporate > 50 M ≥250 > 43 M medium ≤ 50 M <250 ≤ 43 M small ≤ 10 M <50 ≤ 43 M micro ≤ 2 M <10 ≤ 2 M * indicator used only in case of inconsistencies 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 1.3.2 Market Distribution by Company Type (By turnover and number of companies, 2017) medium small micro
  • 8. Romanian Business Information Market We define the high-growth companies (18% of the total) as recording a turnover increase of more than 20% in 2 consecutive years. Bucharest accounts for more than 72% of the domestic business market turnover (EUR 8.5 million), followed by Ilfov with 17% (EUR 2 million). These two counties account for almost 90% of the market. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 8 313 K 569 M Turnover: 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 1.3.3 County Distribution (By 2017 turnover, EUR) 1.3.4 High-Growth Companies (Number of companies, 2017)
  • 9. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ The market consists of a small number of business information companies including international and regional vendors and is highly competitive. It will continue to be so as the use of business information is going to increase. ▪ The biggest 3 companies account for 64% of the market and compete mainly on service customisation, portfolio and pricing. Most notably, KeysFin SRL sustainably gained market share in the past 2 years, ranking 3rd in 2017. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 9 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 1.3.5 Leader Board (By 2017 turnover, EUR millions; percent of total, %) Coface CMS SRL 4.4 37% ICAP B.I. SRL 2.0 17% KeysFin SRL 1.2 10% Borg Design SRL 0.8 7.1% IT Experts SRL 0.7 5.6%
  • 10. Romanian Business Information Market As mentioned in the previous, 2017 business information market report, we expect the market consolidation process to continue. In July 2018, Credit Info, the 8th player by turnover was deregistered and its portfolio is to be absorbed by other companies. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 10 Most of the business information companies are based in Bucharest (60%), followed by Timisoara (9%). 5 year evolution: +16% 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 2.1 Number of Active Companies 2.2 County Distribution (By number of companies, 2017) Actual Estimate
  • 11. Romanian Business Information Market The work force has decreased in the last few years due to the biggest players’ consolidation and automatization processes. The hunt for developing innovative technologies and the current crisis in the domestic labour market will define the trend in the medium term. The Employee average cost (Personnel Expenses/Average number of employees) represented 30% of the Employee average productivity (Turnover/Average number of employees). The productivity increased by 45% in the last 5 years to EUR 48.5K whereas the cost increased by 16% to EUR 14K. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 11 5 year evolution: -19% 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 3.1 Average Number of Employees (EUR thousands per employee) 3.2 Employee Productivity and Cost 60% of Productivity 80% of Productivity Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate Annual variation (%) Employee average cost Employee average productivity
  • 12. Romanian Business Information Market In the last 5 years the number of companies that had no employees decreased from 7 to 1 in 2017. The biggest employer had a personnel of 53 (-8.6% when compared to 2016), representing 22% of the domestic business information related workforce. By company type, the micro and small companies employ the rest, meaning more than three quarters of the total domestic business information workforce. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 12 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 3.3 Workforce Distribution (By company type, 2017) 3.4 Top Employers in 2017 (By number of employees; % of total) Coface CMS SRL 53 22% Borg Design SRL 23 6.1% KeysFin SRL 21 5.2% Risco SRL 19 4% ICAP B.I. SRL 35 26.8% medium small micro
  • 13. Romanian Business Information Market The business information market net profit increased by 81% to EUR 1.96 million in the last 5 years and by 21% when compared to 2016. For 2018 we estimate an increase of 18% to over EUR 2.3 million. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 13 5 year evolution: +81% 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 4.1 Revenues, Expenses & Gross Profit (EUR millions) 4.2 Net Profit (EUR millions) The business information market gross profit (Total revenues minus expenses) increased by 80% to EUR 2.2 million in the last 5 years. Actual 2018e – CAGR estimate Annual variation (%)Total revenues Total expenses
  • 14. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ The business information net result (net profit minus net loss) increased by 87.5% to EUR 1.8 million in the last 5 years and by 18.7% when compared to 2016. ▪ For 2018 we estimate an increase of 10% to almost EUR 2.2 million. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 14 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 4.3 Net Result (EUR millions)
  • 15. Coface CMS SRL 492 25% ICAP B.I. SRL 489 25% KeysFin SRL 351 18% Borg Design 112 6% IT Experts 93 5% Romanian Business Information Market Both EBIT and Net Profit Margins continued to increase substantially in 2017 and remained almost 3 times higher than the economy averages of 6.6% and 5.3%. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 15 The most profitable company last year was Coface Romania, with over 25% of the overall domestic business information profit. However, we note the decrease from almost half of the overall profit in 2016 in favour of ICAP and KeysFin. The 3 most profitable companies account for more than two thirds of the market’s positive result. 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 4.4 Net and EBIT Profit Margins (Net Result/Turnover, EBIT/Turnover) 4.5 Most Profitable Companies (2017, EUR thousands) Net Margin EBIT margin
  • 16. Romanian Business Information Market With a Return on Equity (ROE) of over 55% in 2017 and despite a 15 percentage points decrease from 2016, this market is among the leaders in terms of maximizing the profit earned by the shareholders for their investment in the company. The healthy Return on Assets (ROA) of almost 28% indicates a very good management in employing the market’s total assets to obtaining a much higher profitability than the domestic overall average (8% in 2017). October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 16 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 4.6 ROE (ROE=Net Result/Owner’s Equity, %) 4.6 ROE&ROA (ROA=Net Result/Total Assets, %) ROE ROA
  • 17. Romanian Business Information Market The debt ratio compares the market’s total debt to its total assets. The indicator has decreased to a minimum of 46.8% in 2017 and it was 7 percentage points lower than the overall economy. As opposed to the overall economy where the capital covers 42% of financing needs, this sector has more than 52% of them covered by own funds. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 17 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 5.1 Debt Ratio (Total Liabilities/Total Assets, %) 5.2 Liabilities&Owner’s Equity (2017, EUR millions)
  • 18. Romanian Business Information Market October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 18 ▪ Most Owner’s Equity is domestic, with local investors controlling close to 47% of the market (KeysFin is the only company in Top 3 with 100% Romanian capital). ▪ Austrian capital accounts from almost 30% (Coface CMS SRL) whereas ICAP, the second player is owned by Cyprus-based investors. ▪ The Shareholder Nationality Structure was calculated as a percentage of positive Owner’s Equity for data consistency purposes.Austria CyprusRomania 46.5% 29.5% 25% 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 5.3 Shareholder Nationality Structure (% of Owner’s Equity, 2017)
  • 19. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ Funding risks emerge when an enterprise is unable to obtain sufficient funds to meets its financial requirements. ▪ The trade liabilities of the business information market are 7 percentage points higher than the overall economy average, respectively at 39% of total company debt in 2017. ▪ On the upside, the Late Payments and the Arrears to Suppliers are 27% respectively 10% lower than 5 years ago. Total Liabilities 2.97 M Trade Liabilities 1.09 M Arrears to Suppliers 397 K Late Payments 403 K October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 19 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 5.4 Trade Liabilities (2017, EUR)
  • 20. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ The circles represent the value for the Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) and measure the ability of the market to cover its short-term liabilities using only its current assets. ▪ Days Sales Outstanding (Receivables/Turnover*365) and Days Payable Outstanding (Current Liabilities/Turnover*365) were reversed when compared to the overall economy with the latter being lower than the former. Together, the 3 indicators point to an above the economy average liquidity position. For an in-depth customer base analysis please visit our Client Portfolio Management Solutions available at: www.keysfin.com October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 20 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 6.1 DSO, DPO & Current Ratio (Number of days, Current Assets/Current Liabilities) Current Ratio Days Sales Outstanding Days Payable Outstanding
  • 21. Romanian Business Information Market The Sector Risk Matrix is computed using Altman z-score for services and the three categories represent: ▪ Considerable risk (5 companies): the company faces financial difficulties and is viewed as being risky by its creditors; ▪ Uncertainty zone (3 companies): distress may or may not be impending; ▪ Low risk (14 companies): the financial base and the operations are healthy. General unfavourable factors will not have crucial impact. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 21 2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 7.1 Altman Z-score Distribution (2017) Considerable risk Uncertainty zone Low risk
  • 22. Romanian Business Information Market ▪ The Graph arch is to be interpreted from the base colour to the corresponding new risk category. ▪ The Diagram shows a low risk level for 14 companies, high risk for 5 and uncertainty for 3 of the players. When compared to last year’s market report, though the risk level increased, the overall investor confidence remains high (60% of the companies being categorized as having low risk). October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 22 Also, one company migrated from Considerable to Low Risk last year. One company migrated from Low to Uncertainty, and one from Low to Considerable Risk in 2017. Low Risk: 14 companies Considerable Risk: 5 companies Uncertain: 3 companies2. Number of Companies 3. Workforce 4. Profitability 5. Indebtedness 6. Liquidity 8. Conclusions 7. Market Risk Matrix 1. Turnover 7.2 Company Risk Transition Diagram (2017 versus 2016)
  • 23. 8. Conclusions ▪ The business information market net profit increased by 81% to EUR 1.96 million in the last 5 years and by 21% when compared to 2017. For 2018 we estimate an increase of 18% to over EUR 2.3 million. Both EBIT and Net Profit margins continued to increase substantially in 2017 and remained almost 3 times higher than the economy averages of 6.6% and 5.3%. ▪ With a Return on Equity (ROE) of over 55% in 2017 and despite a 15 percentage points decrease from 2016, this market is among the leaders in terms of maximizing the profit earned by the shareholders for their investment in the company. ▪ The debt ratio decreased to a minimum of 46.8% in 2017, 7 percentage points lower than the overall economy. ▪ Most Shareholder’s Equity is domestic, with local investors controlling close to 47% of total (KeysFin is the only company in Top 3 with 100% local capital). Austrian capital accounts from almost 30% (Coface CMS SRL) whereas ICAP, the second player is Cyprus owned. ▪ The Sector Risk Matrix is computed using Altman z-score for services and it shows a low risk level for 14 companies (60%), high risk for 5 and uncertainty for 3 of the players. ▪ The global business information market is expected to grow by a CAGR of 5% to over 41 billion euro in 2020. The biggest global players, Bloomberg and Reuters lost market share to the smaller financial data providers in 2017, but we note that both players have developed new services to support compliance with MiFID II, the European financial regulation that came into force in January 2018. ▪ As estimated in the 2017 edition, the Romanian Business Information Market returned to growth, after a consolidation phase in 2016. In 2018 we estimate an increase of 3.4% to EUR 12.2 million. ▪ The market last year comprised of one medium company, 7 small and 12 micro. The largest share of the turnover (55%) was generated by the small companies. ▪ Bucharest accounts for more than 72% of the domestic business market turnover (EUR 8.5 million), followed by Ilfov with 17% (EUR 2 million). ▪ The biggest 3 companies account for 64% of the market and compete mainly on service customisation, portfolio and pricing. Most notably, KeysFin SRL sustainably gained market share in the past 2 years, ranking 3rd last year. ▪ The work force has decreased in the last 5 years by almost 20% to 249 employees due to the biggest players’ consolidation and automatization processes. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 23
  • 24. 8.1 Key Data Summary October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 24 INDICATORS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 vs 2013 Number of Companies 19 22 22 22 22 15.8% Turnover (EUR M) 10.0 10.6 11.5 11.0 11.8 17.9% Average Number of Employees 299 265 257 249 243 -18.7% Personnel Expenses (EUR M) 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.4 -5.8% Net Result (EUR M) 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.8 87.5% Net Margin (%) 9.6% 11.7% 14.4% 13.8% 15.3% 5.7 p.p. EBIT Margin (%) 12.4% 14.3% 17.4% 17.3% 18.7% 6.3 p.p. Return on Equity (%) 44.1% 55.6% 61.8% 69.9% 55.4% 11.3 p.p. Return on Assets (%) 16.7% 24.7% 29.0% 28.1% 28.4% 11.6 p.p. Days Sales Outstanding 112 93 109 105 113 1.3% Days Payable Outstanding 120 82 90 92 76 -37.0% Arrears to Suppliers (EUR, K) 487 632 896 415 354 -27.4% p.p. – percentage points
  • 25. 8.2 Romanian Business Conditions October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 25 INDICATOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2017 vs 2013 Number of companies (K) 641.8 657.8 668.3 676.9 619.2 -3,5% Number of insolvencies (K) 28.8 20.4 10.5 8.5 8.8 -69.5% Turnover (EUR B) 238.3 251.4 266.5 274.3 281.3 18.0% Average number of employees (M) 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.9 -0.6% Personnel expenses (EUR B) 24.5 26.6 29.3 32.5 35.0 42.9% Net Result (EUR B) 3.2 4.3 7.2 11.2 14.6 349.9% Net Margin (%) 1.4% 1.7% 2.7% 4.1% 5.2% 3.8 p.p. EBIT Margin (%) 3.7% 4.1% 5.0% 6.0% 6.6% 2.9 p.p. ROE (%) 4.4% 5.4% 8.3% 12.6% 10.4% 6.1 p.p. ROA (%) 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 3.6% 4.2% 3.0 p.p. Days Sales Outstanding* 102 101 98 95 90 -11.7% Days Payable Outstanding* 187 184 176 171 161 -14.1% Trade Liabilities (EUR B) 57.0 57.9 59.1 71.3 59.5 4.5% Arrears to Suppliers (EUR B) 12.9 12.9 12.7 11.4 10.0 -22.2% * For data consistency purposes, as the indicator is computed using Turnover, the Financial Intermediation and Real Estate sectors were excluded.
  • 26. October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 8.3 Romanian Economy at a Glance 26 ▪ Romanian economic growth is expected to decelerate from 7% past year, to about 4,5% in 2018. ▪ The annual inflation rate will be above the central bank target, around 3,6% (NBR estimate) at the end of 2018. ▪ We consider that the biggest macroeconomic risks are the second-round effects of inflationary pressures, the increasing financing costs and the twin deficits (fiscal and trade) that are likely to weaken the country’s internal and external financing position. ▪ The macroeconomic data used, and forecasts are based on official sources: National/European Institute of Statistics (NIS/Eurostat), the National Bank (NBR), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC) and KeysFin calculus.
  • 27. 8.3 Romanian Economy at a Glance October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 27 INDICATOR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Nominal GDP (bn, lei) 511 534 565 595 637 668 711 762 815 852 Real GDP (%) -7.1 -0.8 1.1 0.6 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.8 6.9 4.5 HICP inflation (%) 5.6 6.1 5.8 3.4 3.2 1.4 -0.4 -1.1 1.1 4.2 Trade balance (% yoy) -6.4 -6.1 -5.6 -5 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -6.3 -6.6 FDI flows (bn, euro) 3.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.4 3.5 4.5 4.59 4.5 NBR policy rate (%) 8 6.25 6 5.25 4 2.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 3.25 3M ROBOR (%) 10.6 6.17 6.05 6.05 2.44 1.71 1.02 0.9 2.05 3 EUR/RON (eop) 4.24 4.26 4.32 4.44 4.47 4.48 4.52 4.54 4.66 4.7 KEY LABOUR MARKET INDICATORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Population (total, 1 mil. pers.) 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 20 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.6 Population (working age:15-64, 1 mil. pers.) 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 Total employment (mil. pers.) 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 Unemployment rate (%) 6.5 7 7.2 6.8 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.9 4.9 4.5 Employment rate (% population 15-64) 58.6 60.2 59.3 60.2 60.1 61 61.4 61.6 61.7 61.8 Sources: NIS, NBR, EC, KeysFin calculus* Estimated value
  • 28. Methodology October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 28 It measures the period of time a company needs to pay its creditors (expressed in number of days). A high value of this indicator highlights the company's difficulty to pay its liabilities on time / lack of experience in negotiating a better payout period. It is a business activity operational efficiency indicator and it expresses the average number of days from the moment of the sale to the cash collecting one. The debt ratio compares the sector’s total debt to its total assets. This provides creditors and business partners with a general idea as to the amount of leverage being used. It is the indicator that measures the firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities by capitalizing on all its high liquidity current assets (ie it can be quickly converted into cash). The compounded annual growth rate is the mean annual growth rate of an indicator over a period longer than three years.CAGR Current Ratio Debt Ratio Days Sales Outstanding Days Payable Outstanding
  • 29. Business Information Solutions tailored to your needs 19 Nicolae D. Staicovici Str., 050556 Bucharest, Romania +40 31 425 19 17 | Fax: +40 21 410 29 91 +40 769 026 001 office@keysfin.com Contact Us October 2018 © Copyright KeysFin. All rights reserved 29