Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

J.Cooper_FuelsEurope_Refining Forum_final

  • Identifiez-vous pour voir les commentaires

  • Soyez le premier à aimer ceci

J.Cooper_FuelsEurope_Refining Forum_final

  1. 1. John Cooper, Director General Brussels, 1 March 2016 “Global Competition and the Role for Europe’s Refineries”
  2. 2. 6th EU Refining Forum, 1st of March 2016 Page 2 • Forum overview • Balancing Policy Objectives • Fitness Check • Addressing Climate Change • Competitiveness – Getting a complete picture • Energy Costs • ETS Reform • Transport Decarbonisation
  3. 3. 6th EU Refining Forum, 1st of March 2016 Cost build-up for EU refineries vs non-EU export oriented refineries Page 3 Product freight to EU* EU-only Regulatory NOTE: *Product freight to EU - $ / bbl of product delivered to the EU **ETS – estimated av. impact on EU refineries in phase IV - Assumed identical crude cost 7.2 $ / bbl 2.8 $ / bbl COMPETITIVE DISADVANTAGE 4.4 $ / bbl  Generic Middle-East refinery, 250 kbd  $ / bbl of crude Generic EU refinery, 200 kbd Source: Solomon Associates, Concawe 1.72$ / bbl 1.6 Labour 1.6 Labour 1.1 Maintenance & Other 4.5 Energy 0.5 Maintenance & Other 0.7 Energy IED 1.45 ETS**0.27 Crude cost Crude cost ≈2.0
  4. 4. 6th EU Refining Forum, 1st of March 2016 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.5 2.1 4.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Middle East US Russia EU Crude oil Labour Maintenance & other Energy Regulation ≈ 4 $/bbl Crude oil discount* EU refineries at competitive disadvantage vs non-EU export oriented refineries Page 4 Unit: $/bbl Refinery assumptions: - EU generic refinery 200 kbd; - Middle East/Russia/US generic 250 kbd *Crude assumptions: - Middle East, EU, US – identical crude cost; - Russia (source: JBC) IED ETS Source: Solomon Associates, Concawe, EIA, JBC 2.0 COST BUILD-UP 1.72 1.72* * ** Estimate of US compliance costs Product freight to Europe
  5. 5. 6th EU Refining Forum, 1st of March 2016 Expected evolution of ETS cost for EU refineries from phase II to phase IV Page 5 Source: Concawe & WoodMackenzie (1) Source: Concawe, based on Linear Reduction Factor 1.74% per year & impact of CSCF, assuming total EU refining throughput at 650Mt/y (2) Source: Concawe, based on the 15th July 2015 COM proposal for ETS revision Linear Factor 2.2% per year é estimated impact of CSCF, assuming EU refining throughput at 600 Mt/y, 0.5% yearly improvement in carbon efficiency and cost of ETS certificate at 30€/ton (3) Note that in Phase II surplus allowances to the estimated value of 750 M€ were allocated (source: JRC draft refining fitness check report)
  6. 6. “GLOBAL AND EU ENERGY CHALLENGES & TRANSPORT ISSUES Indicative Carbon Costs in Transport & Power Sector Costin$/Tonne Carbonmitigatedorreduced Transpo rt Power Efficiency Fuel switching in power Renewables in power CCS* 1st Gen Advanced Biofuels Transport Electrification $500+ * Economy-wide carbon price range range Reforestation* * Carbon sequestration will increase the available carbon budget Bar width indicates scope of decarbonisation available $80 $20 Focus of vehicle efficienc y policies Focus of transport energy GHG policies Focus of Power Generati on GHG policies A true market in GHG reduction would support the next lowest cost technologies Page 6
  7. 7. “GLOBAL AND EU ENERGY CHALLENGES & TRANSPORT ISSUES • The Refining Forum is strongly appreciated as a key part of the dialogue between Commission and Industry and should continue on a permanent basis • The Refining Fitness Check should be refreshed on a regular basis and used to assess the global impact of new regulations on the competitiveness of the ref industry • Strong competitiveness challenges remain for the sector • Energy costs are expected to continue to be the biggest element of international competitive disadvantage • ETS costs will rise as a result of Phase IV adding to the competitive disadvantage, and necessitating full carbon leakage protection • European energy strategy should recognise the longer term role of refineries, petroleum fuels and petchem products • We should keep Europe’s fuels and other strategic oil products refined in the EU • Transport decarbonisation strategies should take consideration of cost of carbon abatement and offer flexibility to avoid highest cost approaches Conclusions Page 7
  8. 8. FuelsEurope 165, Boulevard du Souverain 1160 Brussels - Belgium T: +32 2 566 91 00 www.fuelseurope.eu THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION This document was presented by FuelsEurope Contact: John.Cooper@fuelseurope.eu