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Tom Howes Refining Forum

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Tom Howes Refining Forum

  1. 1. Tom Howes, DG Energy European Commission Energy prices and the EU response
  2. 2. What was driving electricity prices 2008-2012? Source: Eurostat. Includes taxes in the case of households; excludes VAT and other recoverable taxes in the case of industry but other industry exemptions are not included (not available). 18.5% 30% 127% 36%7.5% -3% 17% 18% 2014 report …EU… 2
  3. 3. EU electricity and gas prices compared with major trading partners Electricity end-use prices for industry, 2012 Gas end-use prices for industry, 2012 Sources and notes: see p. 177 and 179 of SWD (2014) 20 ..international..2014 report 3
  4. 4. 2014 June Energy Council: Member States requested follow-up report by 2016  Confirmed in Commission's 2015 Energy Union Strategy: Biennial reports  Initiative status: report to be adopted in 2Q 2016 • Discussions with Eurostat, Eurelectric, others on data issues (details, quality, sources…) -> Commission (Eurostat) legislative proposal under discussion • Ad hoc data gathering exercise with Member States • Sluggish economic growth/subdued demand; increased supplies (oil, gas, LNG; lower commodity prices generally) Update… ..since January 2014.. 4
  5. 5. 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD/mmbtu GAS PRICES International wholesale gas prices: Convergence after the storm Henry Hub (US) NBP (UK) Japanese landed price Fukushima March 2011 US gas revolution
  6. 6. International comparison of wholesale prices: EU versus US, Japan and Australia 6 0 €/MWh 20 €/MWh 40 €/MWh 60 €/MWh 80 €/MWh 100 €/MWh 120 €/MWh 140 €/MWh 160 €/MWh 180 €/MWh 200 €/MWh 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Japan Platts PEP US price Australia
  7. 7. ENERGY IMPORT BILL 7 404 358 264 293 271 181 95 74 71 16 14 12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2013 2014 2015 billionEuros (Estimated) Total Oil Gas Coal -11 % -7 % -23 % -26 % -33 % -4 %
  8. 8. • 2nd report on energy prices & costs  Study started in October 2015  +econometric analysis of drivers  detail on price components  Electricity, gas petroleum products included  more detail on sectors and households; EU & international coverage  Other Commission work under way (esp. on energy intensive industries, with further work by DGs CLIMA and GROW)  Feedback from stakeholders: Industry Conference, contacts with institutional actors (Jan/Feb/March)  Final report of study (end of March)  Commission internal work on documents April-May  Adoption Summer 2016 NEXT STEPS 8
  9. 9. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 NL DK DE ES IT PL Retailpriceforelectricity[€ct/kWh] Other Environmental taxes and excise tax Security of Supply Energy efficiency support Market Operation System operation Nuclear Social Tariff RES & CHP Network Component Energy Component0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 NL DK DE ES IT PL Retailpriceforelectricity[€ct/kWh] Other Environmental taxes and excise tax Security of Supply Energy efficiency support Market Operation System operation Nuclear Social Tariff RES & CHP Network Component Energy Component 9 Sub-components Different industry consumption bands
  10. 10. 10 Close up look at energy intensive industries

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