Equity Valuation (AI Augmented Diligence using BayesDB)

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Presentation by Kripa Rajshekhar for DARPA's PPAML'17 workshop in Washington D.C. It outlines the importance of AI in the area of investor diligence, using an equity valuation case study. Kripa is the founder of Metonymy Labs, one of the few commercial firms that have decided to double-down on Third Wave Artificial Intelligence. With the right interdisciplinary expertise and a proprietary natural language processing (NLP) enabled tool-kit, Metolabs is the first-mover in AI augmented diligence (#ADAI). Looking ahead, we believe #ADAI is essential for the coming investment regime where the sources of risk and value are almost entirely intangible, invisible and harder to quantify (85% of the market value in the S&P 500 index is classified as intangible today).

Economy & Finance

(+ Diligence AI) DARPA PPAML
July 28, 2017
Equity Valuation
(AI Augmented Diligence using BayesDB)
Kripa Rajshekhar
(Metonymy Labs)

With thanks to DARPA and the MIT ProbComp Team
In particular, the MIT team at PPAML’17:
Feras Saad, Christina Curlette, Ulrich
Schaechtle, Veronica Sara Weiner & Vikash
Mansinghka

Traditional accounting misses most of the value in firms

www.metolabs.com
Metonymy Labs: AI augmented diligence (#ADAI) can help

For references and data: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
CURRENT
FUTURE?
Valuation today trades the big picture for price benchmarking

Except at some Hedge Funds, Multivariate Normals rule valuation
Source: Prof. Damodaran’s estimate of PE as of January 2017, http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

But financial metrics are neither Normal nor linearly composable
Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

A more principled way to relate 80+ variables from 1400+ firms?
Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

A reasonable estimate of the joint probability distribution is key
Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

Why? Correlation is not causation, it may not even model relation
Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

Inconvenient Truth: Correlation often misses essential connections

Future: Intuitive and statistically grounded notions of connectedness

2000-02
Dot Com
Bubble Burst
2007-08
The Great
Recession
#ADAI
can help
The stakes are high, S&P 500 Index (1996-2016)

“It was inevitable that meaning would force its way back in”
Jean-Pierre Dupuy
www.metolabs.com
Cause:#ADAI Tweet:@metolabs LinkedIn:kripar

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Competition in capital advisory consulting is getting bloodier. Disruption is around the corner and most incumbents don't have a strategy to address it. The best guess “Big Data” model that some have will lose its competitive differentiation in the coming years. This presentation hypothesizes a few ways to get ahead of this shift in the market. Today, analytics teams are hankering after data. Anyone can ask for more data and promise results. Where is the distinctive edge? Other than relationships and branded talent, nowhere. This is why the analytics market today is all about hiring domain expertise and coming up with clever and practical ways of acquiring and hoarding data. This is getting old. SECRET: Data scientists can’t use more computation without more data. Metonymy Labs has found a work around using Next Gen AI This approach, focused on Understanding rather than Predicting, makes powerful use of limited data, given limitless computation. This is what Metolabs has placed an all-in bet on. DARPA identifies it as Third Wave AI.

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Equity Valuation (AI Augmented Diligence using BayesDB)

1. (+ Diligence AI) DARPA PPAML July 28, 2017 Equity Valuation (AI Augmented Diligence using BayesDB) Kripa Rajshekhar (Metonymy Labs)

2. With thanks to DARPA and the MIT ProbComp Team In particular, the MIT team at PPAML’17: Feras Saad, Christina Curlette, Ulrich Schaechtle, Veronica Sara Weiner & Vikash Mansinghka

3. Traditional accounting misses most of the value in firms

4. www.metolabs.com Metonymy Labs: AI augmented diligence (#ADAI) can help

5. For references and data: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ CURRENT FUTURE? Valuation today trades the big picture for price benchmarking

6. Except at some Hedge Funds, Multivariate Normals rule valuation Source: Prof. Damodaran’s estimate of PE as of January 2017, http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

7. But financial metrics are neither Normal nor linearly composable Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

8. A more principled way to relate 80+ variables from 1400+ firms? Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

9. A reasonable estimate of the joint probability distribution is key Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

10. Why? Correlation is not causation, it may not even model relation Source: NYSE data, Analyzed using BayesDB

11. Inconvenient Truth: Correlation often misses essential connections

12. Future: Intuitive and statistically grounded notions of connectedness

13. 2000-02 Dot Com Bubble Burst 2007-08 The Great Recession #ADAI can help The stakes are high, S&P 500 Index (1996-2016)

14. “It was inevitable that meaning would force its way back in” Jean-Pierre Dupuy www.metolabs.com Cause:#ADAI Tweet:@metolabs LinkedIn:kripar

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