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Murex Thesis Letter June 2020

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Murex Thesis Letter June 2020

  1. 1. ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. June 2020 The Digital Land of Morning Calm : How Digital Adoption Evolved in South Korea Since 1997 A Data Driven Macro Perspective MurexThesisLetter#1
  2. 2. THE STORYLINE NEW BUSINESSES CREATED ON TOP OF IT INFRASTRUCTURE AN ERA OF SMARTPHONE ECOSYSTEM : A SMOOTH INTEGRATION AN URGE FOR EVEN MORE DIGITIZATION WHAT’S TO COME IN THE NEXT DECADE THE DAWN AFTER THE DARKEST NIGHT ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. Late 1990s Early 2000s 2010s Early 2020s 2020s and on
  3. 3. THE DAWN AFTER THE DARKEST NIGHT The financial crisis was a catalyst for the nation’s shift in focus to IT Infrastructure Fundamental cracks deep inside, South Korea’s economy was finally exposed during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It didn’t take long to affect the everyday lives of its citizens from the devastating burst of economic situations, which resulted in numerous corporate bankruptcies and massive unemployment. While in the middle of the crisis, the newly-elected President of South Korea announced the then- questionable master plan of building IT infrastructure and incubating IT startups as the nation’s imminent assignment to overcome the deadliest economic crisis of all time. ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. Late 1990s
  4. 4. 20 0 40 2002 20101997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 Korea 20072006 2009 UK Japan USA World Korea was (and still is) by far the #1 in internet penetration GDP contribution of IT industry rose dramatically after 1997 1997 5% 6% 1998 31% -7% 41% 21% 11% 1999 9% 37% 2000 3% 2001 IT Software grew by 412% in 4 years while the whole IT industry grew by 216% 3.9 5.4 8.8 12.0 44.5 52.1 71.1 91.8 91.4 14.6 16.8 21.0 26.8 30.5 19991997 2.9 1998 2000 2001 97.5 62.1 72.9 127.4 134.0 +412% +216% IT SoftwareIT Service IT Hardware Real GDP Growth IT Industry Growth Source: World Bank, Department of Statistics of South Korea, (1) The period the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis impacted the most. ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. RAPIDGROWTHINADOPTIONANDSIZEINITINDUSTRY 1 9 9 7 As ia n F in a n cial Cr is is b eg a n ADSL f ir s t in tr od u ced b y SK Br oa d band - Internet Subscribers (per 100 people) - GrowthTrend of IT Industry in South Korea during the Crisis - Annual GDP of IT Industry in South Korea (US$B) 23% 23% 14% 16% 20% GDP Contribution of IT Industry
  5. 5. NEW BUSINESSES CRETAED ON TOP OF IT INFRASTRUCTURE As fast internet was introduced to ordinary homes, internet businesses surged Unlike the dial-up internet such as Modem, ADSL didn’t require the interference of home phones and was 146x faster in speed (56 kbp/s → 8 Mbp/s). An introduction of ADSL was a game-changer for both users and entrepreneurs. After ADSL was first introduced in 1999, the number of broadband subscribers skyrocketed by 2000%. As a result, more online businesses were created to serve the explosive needs of internet users: from online portals that provide news articles and such information to social networking services and online games. ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. Early 2000s
  6. 6. Source: Koreanclick, Ministry of SME, Gamemeca, Murex Partners (1) UV: Unique visitors on average in 2004 (2) CCU: Concurrent Users ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. NEWBUSINESSESONTHERISEINITSERVICE&SOFTWARESECTORS 2,042 4,934 8,798 11,392 1997 1998 20001999 +458% 2.5 3.5 4.3 6.8 8.4 2000 20032001 2002 2004 +36% Number of startups surges as digital infrastructure matures Free-to-play businessmodel, best suited for online gaming, first started in Korea - Online Game Market Size of South Korea (US$B) - Online Web Portal Service - List of Online Games Launched Duringthe Recession Est. 2001 UniqueVisitors1 :18M Est. 1999 UniqueVisitors1 :8M Est. 1999 UniqueVisitors1 :7M Est. 1999 UniqueVisitors1 :23M Est. 1997 UniqueVisitors1 :24M Est. 1999 User basein peak:25M (52%penetration) Est. 1999 User basein peak:5M (12.5%penetration) Est. 1999 User basein peak:10M (25%penetration) - Online Social Networking Service MMORPG launchedin1998 byNCSoft CCU 2 inpeak:220K MMORPG launchedin2001 byWEBZEN CCU 2 inpeak:300K MMORPG launchedin2003 byNexon CCU 2 inpeak:620K MMORPG launchedin2001 byGRAFFITI CCU 2inpeak:550k - Number of startups in South Korea
  7. 7. AN ERA OF SMARTPHONE ECOSYSTEM : A SMOOTH INTEGRATION Korean consumers quickly embracing the new norms as mobile ecosystem rises in the 2010’s ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. As Koreans were at the forefront of internet penetration starting in the early 2000s, they quickly adopted smartphones as their next technology platform. Since smartphones were first introduced in 2009, internet access on-the-go became much more natural, and the demand soon accelerated. Smartphone ownership of Korea reached 60% in 2 years and 95% in less than 8 years. The expansion of mobile ecosystem had a significant impact on media & entertainment as digital-driven contents have the power to create greater fandom and cultural wave with the enhanced social community. At the same time, ecommerce startups have come up with more efficient and convenient ways to meet the exponential growth of demands. Soon after, on-demand startups such as online travel agency and delivery services serving mobile users began to emerge. 2010s
  8. 8. Mobile ecosystem enables easy-buy & easy-arrival user experience Korea sits atop of other countries in smartphone penetration Booking through smartphone keeps increasing Source: Pew Research Center, Ministry of Rural Development of South Korea, HBR, Economic Review, Google Trends, Murex Partners ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. MOBILEECOSYSTEMARRIVESANDCONSUMERSAREREADYFORIT Mobile ecosystem accelerates expansion of contents-driven fandom base, both domestic and global - Adults who report owning a smartphone in 2018(by country, %) ‘12 ‘18‘04 ‘13‘10‘09‘05 ‘20‘06 ‘15‘14‘11 ‘16 ‘17‘07 ‘08 ‘19 0 50 100 iPh on e f ir s t in tr od u ced Ga n gn am Style r ea ched 1 0 0M view s on You Tu b e K-Pop K-Beauty K - Bea uty p r od u cts f ir s t in tr od u ced in th e US via CV S Ph a r macy BTS w on Billb oar d M u sic Aw a r d 2 0 1 7 “Top Socia l Ar tis t” - Market Size : Fresh Food & Early-morning Deliveryin South Korea (US$M) - Mobile hotelbooking apps Yanolja -Est. in2007 -Revenuegrowth at 70%CAGR since 2015 Daily Hotel -Est. in2013 -Acquiredby Yanolja in 2019 Good Choice -Est. in2015 -AcquiredCVCCapital - GoogleSearch Trends : K-Pop & K-Beauty 706 974 688 1,233 2009 253 338 2003 245 2005 506 2007 2011 2013 9 1,776 2015 163 2017 2,752 2019 +12% +21% - Leaders in Fresh food & early-morning (FFEM) delivery ecommerce Market Kurly -Est. in2014 -First to start early-morning delivery -RevenueinFFEM : $370M Coupang -Est. in2013 -Most valued startup inKorea at $9B -RevenueinFFEM : $540M Fresh Food Early-morning Delivery Before Smartphone Era100 198 329 2172018 2023(e) MobileOnline - Market Size: Online Travel in South Korea 95 10 South Korea 11 Israel Netherlands 16 Sweden 86 Australia US Spain Germany UK 76 5 12 88 87 13 81 13 81 18 80 78 19 Smartphone Mobile phone not smartphone
  9. 9. AN URGE FOR EVEN MORE DIGITIZATION The COVID-19 was an eye-opener for late adopters, both individuals and organizations Since the 1970s, personal computers became widespread across not only individuals but everywhere. From then on, organizations in almost every edge of industries have become digitized at a certain level. Despite the availability of such technology, some industries remain low in digitization due to complex relations among stakeholders for different reasons. But the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed our perception around the digital transformation from the deep down. To survive from changes in consumer behavior, we now have to utilize digitization at our best, least with the existing technology. The impact of the pandemic is so immense that it is forcing our consumers to look for options, preferably more digital. ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. Early 2020s
  10. 10. WHAT’S TO COME IN THE NEXT DECADE We’re at another tipping point, triggered by the worldwide crisis In the 2008 Financial Crisis, some might have thought that the world would not be recovered from the wound deep down the skin, but others created opportunities. During the 2008-2009 recession, many influential startups came out: Uber, Airbnb, Square, Venmo, Whatsapp, Slack, Groupon, and so on. In fact, 57% of Fortune 500 companies have been founded during periods of economic distress. Would this time period of distressed economy end up with similar outcomes as in the past? Is it really the tipping point for the next new decade? What will be the next big thing in the near future? ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. 2020s and on
  11. 11. The 2008 Financial Crisis was a tipping point for some sectors and such trends tend to remain on the slope, up or down Source: Benedict Evans, McKinsey Global Institute, Murex Partners ©2020 Murex Partners.All rightsreserved. ATIPPINGPOINT? Post COVID-19, vaccine or not, requires us to rethink how we live. If this is the time for such change, how will Korea’s digital landscape change and evolve into? Our next research will cover on sectors and industries that will shape the future of South Korea in the next decade. Thank you. - US Advertising Spending Internet TV Radio Magazines Newspapers T h e 2 0 0 8 F i n a n c i a l C r i s i s Consumersremain hesitant to return to some of the in-person activities that were part of their daily lives before COVID-19 - Expected behavior post-COVID-19compared to pre-COVID-19, net intent % 6 6 -3 -3 12 3 -10 4 US UK Italy Germany Japan France Spain India 1 -15 -12 -8 -7 -12 4 0 -17 -5 -26 -21 -25 -20 -30 -2 Shop in physical Grocery stores Domestic travelGo to the mall Shop in physical stores (non-grocery) -6 17 5 -7 -12 -7 -32 -4

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