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Looking Ahead:
Post-COVID labour market trends
and information
Tony Bonen27.10.2020
2
LMIC
Governance
3
1 2 3
Overview
COVID-19 and Employment
Now & Future of
Employment
Trends
Long-run
Changes and
COVID-19
Disruptions
Tools to Help
Keep Track of
LMI
4
Employment in 2020
Labour Force Survey
• February to April more than 3 million jobs lost – ¾
recovered by September
• Hardest hit sectors: accommodation and food services,
manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate
sectors.
• Still down about 720,000 jobs as of September from
February level
• Low-income earners hit harder, recovering at a slower pace
• Young workers particularly hard hit
5
Employment swings in
past 7 months are each
larger than any past
change
Employment change from
previous month, Canada
Total Change % Change
April 2020 -1,994,000 -11.0%
March 2020 -1,011,000 -5.3%
June 2020 952,900 5.8%
July 2020 418,500 2.4%
September 2020 378,200 2.1%
May 2020 289,600 1.8%
August 2020 245,800 1.4%
January 2009 -124,800 -0.7%
November 2008 -121,400 -0.7%
September 1980 81,600 0.7%
June 1982 -81,300 -0.7%
Source: LMIC; Statistics Canada
LFS Table 14-10-0287; Seasonally adjusted
6
7
8
9
Do occupational outlooks
tell us anything?
• Forecasts aren’t generally useful, and especially not 2020
• However, forecasts give us an indication of trajectories that may
still hold some relevance
• Speed of recovery will depend critically on public health solutions
(e.g., vaccines) and policy supports offered to hard-hit sectors
10
11
Large, fast-growing occupations show
broad trends persist through pandemic
Broad
Category Occupation
Employment
level
(2019)
Growth
forecast
2018-2028
1 Other financial officers 157,000 16%
1 Human resources professionals 118,000 23%
1 Professional occupations in business management consulting 117,000 16%
1 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public
relations 159,000
16%
2 Information systems analysts and consultants
243,000 24%
2 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 182,000 19%
2 User support technician & Information systems testing technician 107,000 15%
3 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 306,000 33%
3 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates & Other
assisting occupations in support of health services
331,000
29%
4 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 191,000 16%
4 Social and community service workers 141,000 29%
11 occupations among the 100 largest in 2019 (LFS) and 50 fastest forecast growth (COPS)
Source: LMIC; Statistics Canada; ESDC
12
Broad trends
Enhanced by COVID-19
• Demographic changes
• Technological change (automation/AI, work
interfaces)
• Climate change
• Economic inequality
13 Future of Employment
Post-COVID
• Automation a “mandatory capability” for
businesses to survive the crisis (HBR, 2020)
• Employers may accelerate investment in
automation to offset potential risks from future
pandemics (Chernoff & Warman, 2020)
• There is overlap among workers most
vulnerable to increasing automation and the
current economic downturn (McKinsey, 2020)
• In the US, previous recessions saw no recovery
in employment rates among “routine
occupations” and entirely account for ‘jobless
recoveries’ (Jaimovich & Siu, 2018)
Working
from home
Automation
• Approximately 30% of the labour
force can work from home
• Statistics Canada has tracked this
since March, when working from
home was nearly 40%, now closer
to 25% as of September
• Higher income, higher education &
dual earning families more likely to
have jobs that can be done
remotely
14
Future of work in Canada
Now of Work
Timely LMI during COVID
Identify new and emerging labour market
trends:
• Climate change and sustainability
• Demographic characteristics:
immigrant status, gender, age, etc.
• Technology and innovation
Example of interacting of key trends
• Changing landscape of skills
increases demand for technical / IT
work requirements
• Out flow of older workers increases
employment opportunity for new
workers
• Employment opportunities increase
in specific sector and risk of skills
shortage
• Structural shifts in the economy might outlast the
pandemic
• Changes in consumer behaviour – increased
demand for online services
• Working remotely
• Young people and new graduates risk long-run
underemployment – need support systems (e.g.,
training, mentorship).
• Women with young children are not returning to
their pre-shutdown level of hours worked as quickly
as their male counterparts
15
Tools for navigating
Labour Market Information
Now of Work &
Future of Work
Annotated
Bibliographies
WorkWords
Canadian Online
Job Postings
Dashboard
16
work-words
• Job Vacancy
• Non-Standard Employment
• Occupation
• Occupational Outlooks
• Wages and Salaries
• Skills (forthcoming)
17
• Information on skills and other work requirements
• Data for geographic region, province, or all of Canada.
• Data updated monthly
canadian-online-job-posting-dashboard
Canadian Online Job Postings
Dashboard
18
CONTACT
Tony Bonen
tony.bonen@lmic-cimt.ca
Director, Research, Data and Analytics

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Looking Ahead: Post-COVID labour market trends and information

  • 1. Looking Ahead: Post-COVID labour market trends and information Tony Bonen27.10.2020
  • 3. 3 1 2 3 Overview COVID-19 and Employment Now & Future of Employment Trends Long-run Changes and COVID-19 Disruptions Tools to Help Keep Track of LMI
  • 4. 4 Employment in 2020 Labour Force Survey • February to April more than 3 million jobs lost – ¾ recovered by September • Hardest hit sectors: accommodation and food services, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate sectors. • Still down about 720,000 jobs as of September from February level • Low-income earners hit harder, recovering at a slower pace • Young workers particularly hard hit
  • 5. 5 Employment swings in past 7 months are each larger than any past change Employment change from previous month, Canada Total Change % Change April 2020 -1,994,000 -11.0% March 2020 -1,011,000 -5.3% June 2020 952,900 5.8% July 2020 418,500 2.4% September 2020 378,200 2.1% May 2020 289,600 1.8% August 2020 245,800 1.4% January 2009 -124,800 -0.7% November 2008 -121,400 -0.7% September 1980 81,600 0.7% June 1982 -81,300 -0.7% Source: LMIC; Statistics Canada LFS Table 14-10-0287; Seasonally adjusted
  • 6. 6
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  • 9. 9 Do occupational outlooks tell us anything? • Forecasts aren’t generally useful, and especially not 2020 • However, forecasts give us an indication of trajectories that may still hold some relevance • Speed of recovery will depend critically on public health solutions (e.g., vaccines) and policy supports offered to hard-hit sectors
  • 10. 10
  • 11. 11 Large, fast-growing occupations show broad trends persist through pandemic Broad Category Occupation Employment level (2019) Growth forecast 2018-2028 1 Other financial officers 157,000 16% 1 Human resources professionals 118,000 23% 1 Professional occupations in business management consulting 117,000 16% 1 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations 159,000 16% 2 Information systems analysts and consultants 243,000 24% 2 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 182,000 19% 2 User support technician & Information systems testing technician 107,000 15% 3 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 306,000 33% 3 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates & Other assisting occupations in support of health services 331,000 29% 4 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 191,000 16% 4 Social and community service workers 141,000 29% 11 occupations among the 100 largest in 2019 (LFS) and 50 fastest forecast growth (COPS) Source: LMIC; Statistics Canada; ESDC
  • 12. 12 Broad trends Enhanced by COVID-19 • Demographic changes • Technological change (automation/AI, work interfaces) • Climate change • Economic inequality
  • 13. 13 Future of Employment Post-COVID • Automation a “mandatory capability” for businesses to survive the crisis (HBR, 2020) • Employers may accelerate investment in automation to offset potential risks from future pandemics (Chernoff & Warman, 2020) • There is overlap among workers most vulnerable to increasing automation and the current economic downturn (McKinsey, 2020) • In the US, previous recessions saw no recovery in employment rates among “routine occupations” and entirely account for ‘jobless recoveries’ (Jaimovich & Siu, 2018) Working from home Automation • Approximately 30% of the labour force can work from home • Statistics Canada has tracked this since March, when working from home was nearly 40%, now closer to 25% as of September • Higher income, higher education & dual earning families more likely to have jobs that can be done remotely
  • 14. 14 Future of work in Canada Now of Work Timely LMI during COVID Identify new and emerging labour market trends: • Climate change and sustainability • Demographic characteristics: immigrant status, gender, age, etc. • Technology and innovation Example of interacting of key trends • Changing landscape of skills increases demand for technical / IT work requirements • Out flow of older workers increases employment opportunity for new workers • Employment opportunities increase in specific sector and risk of skills shortage • Structural shifts in the economy might outlast the pandemic • Changes in consumer behaviour – increased demand for online services • Working remotely • Young people and new graduates risk long-run underemployment – need support systems (e.g., training, mentorship). • Women with young children are not returning to their pre-shutdown level of hours worked as quickly as their male counterparts
  • 15. 15 Tools for navigating Labour Market Information Now of Work & Future of Work Annotated Bibliographies WorkWords Canadian Online Job Postings Dashboard
  • 16. 16 work-words • Job Vacancy • Non-Standard Employment • Occupation • Occupational Outlooks • Wages and Salaries • Skills (forthcoming)
  • 17. 17 • Information on skills and other work requirements • Data for geographic region, province, or all of Canada. • Data updated monthly canadian-online-job-posting-dashboard Canadian Online Job Postings Dashboard