Director Tony Bonen spoke at the First Work Futures virtual conference to discuss post-COVID labour market trends including what the data tells us and what LMI is available to use today in our communities.
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1 2 3
Overview
COVID-19 and Employment
Now & Future of
Employment
Trends
Long-run
Changes and
COVID-19
Disruptions
Tools to Help
Keep Track of
LMI
4. 4
Employment in 2020
Labour Force Survey
• February to April more than 3 million jobs lost – ¾
recovered by September
• Hardest hit sectors: accommodation and food services,
manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate
sectors.
• Still down about 720,000 jobs as of September from
February level
• Low-income earners hit harder, recovering at a slower pace
• Young workers particularly hard hit
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Employment swings in
past 7 months are each
larger than any past
change
Employment change from
previous month, Canada
Total Change % Change
April 2020 -1,994,000 -11.0%
March 2020 -1,011,000 -5.3%
June 2020 952,900 5.8%
July 2020 418,500 2.4%
September 2020 378,200 2.1%
May 2020 289,600 1.8%
August 2020 245,800 1.4%
January 2009 -124,800 -0.7%
November 2008 -121,400 -0.7%
September 1980 81,600 0.7%
June 1982 -81,300 -0.7%
Source: LMIC; Statistics Canada
LFS Table 14-10-0287; Seasonally adjusted
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Do occupational outlooks
tell us anything?
• Forecasts aren’t generally useful, and especially not 2020
• However, forecasts give us an indication of trajectories that may
still hold some relevance
• Speed of recovery will depend critically on public health solutions
(e.g., vaccines) and policy supports offered to hard-hit sectors
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Large, fast-growing occupations show
broad trends persist through pandemic
Broad
Category Occupation
Employment
level
(2019)
Growth
forecast
2018-2028
1 Other financial officers 157,000 16%
1 Human resources professionals 118,000 23%
1 Professional occupations in business management consulting 117,000 16%
1 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public
relations 159,000
16%
2 Information systems analysts and consultants
243,000 24%
2 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 182,000 19%
2 User support technician & Information systems testing technician 107,000 15%
3 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 306,000 33%
3 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates & Other
assisting occupations in support of health services
331,000
29%
4 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 191,000 16%
4 Social and community service workers 141,000 29%
11 occupations among the 100 largest in 2019 (LFS) and 50 fastest forecast growth (COPS)
Source: LMIC; Statistics Canada; ESDC
13. 13 Future of Employment
Post-COVID
• Automation a “mandatory capability” for
businesses to survive the crisis (HBR, 2020)
• Employers may accelerate investment in
automation to offset potential risks from future
pandemics (Chernoff & Warman, 2020)
• There is overlap among workers most
vulnerable to increasing automation and the
current economic downturn (McKinsey, 2020)
• In the US, previous recessions saw no recovery
in employment rates among “routine
occupations” and entirely account for ‘jobless
recoveries’ (Jaimovich & Siu, 2018)
Working
from home
Automation
• Approximately 30% of the labour
force can work from home
• Statistics Canada has tracked this
since March, when working from
home was nearly 40%, now closer
to 25% as of September
• Higher income, higher education &
dual earning families more likely to
have jobs that can be done
remotely
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Future of work in Canada
Now of Work
Timely LMI during COVID
Identify new and emerging labour market
trends:
• Climate change and sustainability
• Demographic characteristics:
immigrant status, gender, age, etc.
• Technology and innovation
Example of interacting of key trends
• Changing landscape of skills
increases demand for technical / IT
work requirements
• Out flow of older workers increases
employment opportunity for new
workers
• Employment opportunities increase
in specific sector and risk of skills
shortage
• Structural shifts in the economy might outlast the
pandemic
• Changes in consumer behaviour – increased
demand for online services
• Working remotely
• Young people and new graduates risk long-run
underemployment – need support systems (e.g.,
training, mentorship).
• Women with young children are not returning to
their pre-shutdown level of hours worked as quickly
as their male counterparts
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Tools for navigating
Labour Market Information
Now of Work &
Future of Work
Annotated
Bibliographies
WorkWords
Canadian Online
Job Postings
Dashboard
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• Information on skills and other work requirements
• Data for geographic region, province, or all of Canada.
• Data updated monthly
canadian-online-job-posting-dashboard
Canadian Online Job Postings
Dashboard