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Moneyball
Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship
&
Investment Readiness Levels
Steve Blank
@sgblank
www.steveblank.com
Lean Startup
Business Model
Canvas

Lean Startup
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

A...
Hypotheses

Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean St...
Hypotheses

Experiments

Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Develop...
Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
D...
Mentors
Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas

+

Cu...
2,200 Teams Worldwide
• NSF Innovation-Corps

• 44 Universities Worldwide
• 30 Accelerators/Incubators

• Fortune 500 Comp...
Training 300 Educators/Year
• Lean LaunchPad Educators Seminar
• Lean LaunchPad Incubator/Accelerator Seminar

http://ncii...
LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business...
Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data

LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF ...
Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data

+

Experiment
Scorecard

LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Eviden...
Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data

+

Experiment
Scorecard

=

Data, Experiments,
Trajectory, IRL

LaunchPad Central Software...
Data on Hypotheses, Pivots,
MVPs, Metrics
Evidence and Trajectory
Cohort
Leaderboard
Customer
Interviews
Hypotheses
to Test
Invalidated
Hypotheses
Weekly Canvas
Updates
Track All
Hypotheses
Testing
Scorecard:
9 way Kanban Board
with data
Advanced Data Mining
NASA
NASA/DOD
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
•
•
•
•

Formal Way to assess project maturity
Quantify Relative Risks
Data Driv...
NASA/DOD Technology Readiness:
Levels 1 & 2
Basic Technology Research
• Basic principles observed
• Technology concept for...
NASA/DOD Technology Readiness
Levels 3 & 4
Research to prove Feasibility
• Experimental proof of concept
• Breadboard vali...
NASA/DOD Technology Readiness
Levels 5 & 6
Demo Prototype
• Breadboard validation outside the building
• System demo in re...
NASA/DOD Technology Readiness
Levels 7, 8, 9
Deployment
• System Development
• System deployed in real-world
Demo

Researc...
What Can We Do
With All This Data?
The Investment Readiness Level
Investment Readiness Level
Investment Readiness Level
We can do the same
for new ventures
Investment Readiness Level
We can do the same
for new ventures
Emphasis is on data
Investment Readiness Level
• A Formal Way to Quantify Relative Risks
• Data Driven
• Analog to NASA/DOD
Technology Readine...
Investment Readiness:
Levels 1 & 2
Hypotheses
• Value Proposition summarized
• Canvas hypotheses articulated

Hypotheses
Investment Readiness:
Levels 3 & 4
Problem / Solution Fit
• Problem Solution fit
• Low fidelity MVP
Problem/Solution

Hypo...
Investment Readiness:
Levels 5 & 6
Validate
• Product/Market fit
• Right side of canvas
Product/Market fit
Problem/Solutio...
Investment Readiness:
Levels 7 & 8
Validate
• Left side of canvas
Product/Market fit
Problem/Solution

Hypotheses
Investment Readiness:
Levels 9
Metrics That Matter
Left side of the canvas

Product/Market fit
Problem/Solution

Hypothese...
Technology
Readiness Level

Investment
Readiness Level
Metrics that Matter
Validate
Left side of Canvas
Validate
Right sid...
IRL Deployed …
“God is not on the side of the big arsenals,
but on the side of those who shoot best.”

Voltaire
For more info Incubator/Accelerator Class
http://nciia.org/LLP
www.steveblank.com
@sgblank
Lesson Learned Presentations Tonight
UCSF Mission Bay
Byers Auditorium
5:30 – 7:30pm
www.steveblank.com
@sgblank
Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank
Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank
Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank
Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank
Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank
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Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank

Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank

Steve Blank @sgblank Stanford / Berkeley / Columbia

The Lean Startup Conference 2013
http://leanstartup.co/

Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank

  1. 1. Moneyball Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship & Investment Readiness Levels Steve Blank @sgblank www.steveblank.com
  2. 2. Lean Startup
  3. 3. Business Model Canvas Lean Startup
  4. 4. Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup
  5. 5. Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  6. 6. Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  7. 7. Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  8. 8. Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  9. 9. Hypotheses Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  10. 10. Hypotheses Experiments Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  11. 11. Hypotheses Experiments Data Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  12. 12. Mentors Hypotheses Experiments Data Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  13. 13. 2,200 Teams Worldwide • NSF Innovation-Corps • 44 Universities Worldwide • 30 Accelerators/Incubators • Fortune 500 Companies
  14. 14. Training 300 Educators/Year • Lean LaunchPad Educators Seminar • Lean LaunchPad Incubator/Accelerator Seminar http://nciia.org/LLP
  15. 15. LaunchPad Central Software Hypotheses Experiments Data Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  16. 16. Weekly Data Progress Data Data LaunchPad Central Software Hypotheses Experiments Data Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  17. 17. Weekly Data Progress Data Data + Experiment Scorecard LaunchPad Central Software Hypotheses Experiments Data Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  18. 18. Weekly Data Progress Data Data + Experiment Scorecard = Data, Experiments, Trajectory, IRL LaunchPad Central Software Hypotheses Experiments Data Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad) Business Model Canvas + Customer Development Lean Startup + Agile Engineering
  19. 19. Data on Hypotheses, Pivots, MVPs, Metrics Evidence and Trajectory
  20. 20. Cohort Leaderboard
  21. 21. Customer Interviews
  22. 22. Hypotheses to Test
  23. 23. Invalidated Hypotheses
  24. 24. Weekly Canvas Updates
  25. 25. Track All Hypotheses Testing
  26. 26. Scorecard: 9 way Kanban Board with data
  27. 27. Advanced Data Mining
  28. 28. NASA
  29. 29. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness Level (TRL) • • • • Formal Way to assess project maturity Quantify Relative Risks Data Driven Adopted by NASA, DOD, FAA, ESA…
  30. 30. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness: Levels 1 & 2 Basic Technology Research • Basic principles observed • Technology concept formulated Concept
  31. 31. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness Levels 3 & 4 Research to prove Feasibility • Experimental proof of concept • Breadboard validation in lab Research Concept
  32. 32. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness Levels 5 & 6 Demo Prototype • Breadboard validation outside the building • System demo in real-world Demo Research Concept
  33. 33. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness Levels 7, 8, 9 Deployment • System Development • System deployed in real-world Demo Research Concept
  34. 34. What Can We Do With All This Data? The Investment Readiness Level
  35. 35. Investment Readiness Level
  36. 36. Investment Readiness Level We can do the same for new ventures
  37. 37. Investment Readiness Level We can do the same for new ventures Emphasis is on data
  38. 38. Investment Readiness Level • A Formal Way to Quantify Relative Risks • Data Driven • Analog to NASA/DOD Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
  39. 39. Investment Readiness: Levels 1 & 2 Hypotheses • Value Proposition summarized • Canvas hypotheses articulated Hypotheses
  40. 40. Investment Readiness: Levels 3 & 4 Problem / Solution Fit • Problem Solution fit • Low fidelity MVP Problem/Solution Hypotheses
  41. 41. Investment Readiness: Levels 5 & 6 Validate • Product/Market fit • Right side of canvas Product/Market fit Problem/Solution Hypotheses
  42. 42. Investment Readiness: Levels 7 & 8 Validate • Left side of canvas Product/Market fit Problem/Solution Hypotheses
  43. 43. Investment Readiness: Levels 9 Metrics That Matter Left side of the canvas Product/Market fit Problem/Solution Hypotheses
  44. 44. Technology Readiness Level Investment Readiness Level Metrics that Matter Validate Left side of Canvas Validate Right side of Canvas Product/Market Fit Problem/Solution Hypotheses
  45. 45. IRL Deployed …
  46. 46. “God is not on the side of the big arsenals, but on the side of those who shoot best.” Voltaire
  47. 47. For more info Incubator/Accelerator Class http://nciia.org/LLP www.steveblank.com @sgblank
  48. 48. Lesson Learned Presentations Tonight UCSF Mission Bay Byers Auditorium 5:30 – 7:30pm www.steveblank.com @sgblank

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