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Commentary China insurance market overview-15sep2015

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DAGONG EUROPE - www.dagongeurope.com
Linas Grigaliunas
Director
Financial Institutions Analytical Team
linas.grigaliunas@d...
Insurance
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China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends
15 September 2015
© 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rat...
Insurance
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China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends
15 September 2015
© 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rat...
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Commentary China insurance market overview-15sep2015

  1. 1. DAGONG EUROPE - www.dagongeurope.com Linas Grigaliunas Director Financial Institutions Analytical Team linas.grigaliunas@dagongeurope.com Carola Saldias Senior Director Sector Head Financial Institutions Analytical Team carola.saldias@dagongeurope.com China’s Insurance Market Overview Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 Commentary
  2. 2. Insurance 2 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS & MAIN TRENDS 3. OUTLOOK 4. MAIN CHALLENGES 5. CHINA’S INSURANCE MARKET OVERVIEW AND MAIN INDUSTRY DRIVERS 6. CHINA’S INSURANCE MARKET STRUCTURE AND LARGEST PLAYERS 7. MAJOR BUSINESS SEGMENTS’ CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS a. Life insurance – Continues to dominate the market, reinforced by return of high-premium growth b. Accident and Health insurance – High growth potential c. Non-life insurance – Gaining weight and delivering stable growth 8. REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS 9. APPENDIXES
  3. 3. Insurance 3 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 1. INTRODUCTION The sluggish economic environment and low interest yields among the majority of countries across the world continues to be a major point of discussion. While the insurance business in the mature markets is relatively stable and well-understood, it offers few growth prospects, with Life premiums growing by only 3.8% and Non-life by 1.8% in the advanced economies in 2014. As with other industries, insurance players are keenly looking beyond their home regions for opportunities offered by globalisation. A number of emerging insurance markets including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Mexico, Turkey, UAE and Brazil are widely considered to be high-potential growth markets. However, China dwarfs all the emerging markets in terms of size and speed of economic development. With its slowly liberalising economy and opening-up insurance industry, China offers both significant growth opportunities and huge challenges. In this report we provide our updated overview of China’s insurance industry and the main characteristics and trends. 2. INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS & MAIN TRENDS  China’s insurance industry is expanding rapidly at 17.5% yoy in 2014 and 19.3% yoy in 1H151 .  The Life2 business returned to a high growth rate, with 18% in 2014 and 21.3% in 1H15. Non-life growth was stable at 16% in 2014, but slowed down to 10.9% in 1H15.  The foreign insurers’ market share is still very low at 2.2% in Non-life and 5.8% in Life, although growing slowly.  The profitability of the industry has improved significantly, by 106% in 2014, and approx. 200% in 1H15, largely driven by investment income. We expect volatility in profitability to increase, mostly as a consequence of volatility from investment income deriving from a scenario of interest-rates reduction and increasing volatility in China’s equity markets.  China’s insurance industry is highly concentrated, with the top three largest players in both Life and Non-life underwriting close to a half or more of their respective markets’ Gross Premiums Written. The top three largest Life players accounted for 48.5% (53.7% in 2013) of the market and Non-life accounted for 64.7% (64.8%).  China’s Non-life insurance market is still immature, highly imbalanced and concentrated in motor insurance, which accounts for about 75% of the total Non-life premiums.  China’s government and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) are willing and committed to modernising and further developing the local insurance market through market reforms. A number of important new pilots were initiated in 2014 and 1H15, which we expect will make the industry more open, economic risk and market-driven.  The market solvency level is deemed positive at the current regime, although is expected to be lower once the new risk-based C-ROSS3 regime begins in 2016. 1 CIRC 2 Includes Accident & Health as reported by CIRC 3 China Risk-Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) China’s insurance industry is highly concentrated: the top three largest players in both Life and Non-life underwrite around half of their respective markets’ GPW
  4. 4. Insurance 4 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 3. OUTLOOK  China’s insurance market promises high growth in a global context of limited industry- growth prospects. This is based on a number of long-term more stable factors such as low penetration, low density and large population; and more dynamic medium- term factors such as slowing but still fast economic growth and social development, the economic growth-focused policy and market-opening, and the liberalisation- oriented regulatory environment.  We expect the overall insurance market in China to grow at above 15% in 2015-16 with Accident & Health (A&H) business expanding fastest, followed by Life, and slowing but still double-digit growth in Non-life.  The speed and scale of the insurance industry’s development in China will be highly dependent on the upcoming regulatory reforms. We expect liberalisation and the opening of the market to continue, but complexity should remain a major issue.  We expect the new solvency regime to improve risk oversight and management in the industry, and possibly increase consolidation between weaker, smaller players.  We expect investment income and overall profitability to be more exposed to financial market volatility. 4. MAIN CHALLENGES  Increased domestic financial market volatility, which could affect investment returns and solvency capital.  Increased need for additional capital when C-ROSS is implemented across the industry, due to more comprehensive risk-based solvency capital calculation with a broader scope and varying capital charges compared to the existing solvency regime. This is particularly evident for companies suffering from bottom-line losses or low profitability in the fast premium-growth environment.  Limited investment and asset-liability management opportunities due to various investment restrictions, volatile and relatively shallow capital markets and lack of a long-term bond market.  Constrained and slow expansion of distribution channels and shortage of experienced sales personnel.  Cultural misperception of insurance products and their economic benefits. High and increasing competition, which could lead to price wars and underwriting losses.
  5. 5. Insurance 5 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 5. CHINA’S INSURANCE MARKET OVERVIEW AND MAIN INDUSTRY DRIVERS China’s insurance market showed strong growth in 2014 and is expected to continue in 2015-16 Insurance market growth China’s insurance market is the fourth largest in the world and one of the fastest growing. At end-2014 its Gross Premiums Written (GPW) stood at EUR 266Bn4 (RMB 2.0Tn), up by 17.5% (11.2% in 2013) compared with end-20133 . In comparison, during the same period total premiums in the top three largest markets - US, Japan and the UK - stood at EUR 1,058Bn (USD 1,280Bn), EUR 365Bn (JPY 52,756Bn) and EUR 274Bn (GBP 213Bn5 ), and grew at 2% (-1.3%), 5.7% (-4.2%), and 2.4% (0.2%) respectively. The high growth has continued into 2015 with GPW in 1H15 reaching RMB 1.37Tn, an increase of 19.3%. Usually GDP growth is an effective proxy for insurance industry growth. GPW in China has been growing even faster than GDP (7.4% in 2014), at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.7% over the last decade6 (5-year CAGR was 12.7%). The high growth can be explained by the very young nature of the insurance industry in China, and favourable and rapidly improving economic conditions over the last decade. Ex. 1: China's insurance industry GPW and GDP growth rates (2005-14) Source: CIRC, IMF, Dagong Europe The industry growth in 2014 was driven by Life business (including Accident & Health), which picked-up significantly to 18% from 8% a year ago, while Non-life expanded at a largely stable rate of 16%, compared to 17% a year ago. Historically, Life insurance has been the dominating sector and the main growth driver for China’s insurance industry overall, with both growth rates closely correlating. At end-2014, Life insurance accounted for 62.7% (1.3pp decrease) and Non-life for 37.3% (1.3pp increase) of China’s total insurance market GPW. Since 2005, on average Non-life premiums have grown faster and with more stable rates than Life, and slowly increased in market share. Life growth rates only exceeded Non-life in 2008 and 2014. A sharp fall in the Life insurance growth rates in 2011 was related to regulatory changes and had a negative impact on the industry. 4 CIRC, this figure excludes premiums from reinsurance 5 Swiss Re Sigma 3 2013 6 CIRC, Dagong Europe -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005 Total GPW growth Non-life GPW growth Life GPW growth GDP growth GPW in China has been growing even faster than GDP (7.4% in 2014), at a CAGR of 16.7% over the last decade
  6. 6. Insurance 6 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. Ex. 2: China's insurance market GPW overall and by major business lines (2007-14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Overall, such high and sustained historic growth rates are unprecedented. Over the last decade, the Life sector has delivered CAGR of 15.0% (5-year CAGR to 2014 of 7.9%), and the Non-life sector even higher CAGR of 20.8% (5-year CAGR to 2014 of 20.2%). The insurance industry’s gross exposure has also expanded rapidly and, as reported by CIRC, reached RMB 1,114Tn in 2014, an increase of 25.5% compared with 2013. Future growth expectations and main drivers In our opinion, a return to the historic highs in market growth of 30-40%, seen in 2010 and 2008, is highly unlikely. This is because historically the industry has developed from very low levels and has been supported by China’s opening of the financial market and high GDP growth. Now the industry has already reached a significant size in absolute terms and the economy is moving to a new norm of slower and more sustainable growth. A number of macro factors, such as low insurance penetration and density, the huge population, and increasing disposable income indicate large growth opportunities. However, it will depend to a large extent on the speed and effectiveness of regulatory reforms, tax incentives and a further reducing of regulatory hurdles. We remain positive and expect the market to continue growing at rates above 15%, well above developed and many other developing markets. Relatively stable long-term growth drivers The three main factors that indicate the potential growth of the insurance market in the long term - low insurance penetration, low insurance density and a large population - are highly supportive for the industry. These factors are usually quite stable, develop incrementally and are highly unlikely to change significantly in the short to medium term.  Low insurance penetration (measured as GPW/GDP) stood at 3.2% at end-2014, up from 3% a year ago. At this level, insurance penetration is relatively low compared with 6.2% across the world, and up to 12% in developed markets. This indicates a relatively small size and spread of the insurance industry in the Chinese economy. Looking deeper, the Life insurance penetration rate was 1.7% (1.6% in 2013) and Non-life only 1.5% (1.4%)7 . The fact that China is the world’s largest and a still-growing manufacturer8 while having such low insurance penetration also implies an undeveloped Non-life insurance sector and high growth potential, particularly in property & fire, liability, natural catastrophes, trade credit, business interruption and Health insurance. 7 Swiss Re Sigma 4/2015 & 3/2014, which treat Accident & Health (A&H) insurance as part of Non-life business, while in the rest of report we consider A&H as part of Life business, as defined by CIRC. 8 United Nations 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 20142013201220112010200920082007 RMB Tn Accident & Health Life Non-life Total insurance market Low insurance penetration, low insurance density and a large population indicate potential growth
  7. 7. Insurance 7 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. Ex. 3: Total insurance penetration: premiums as % of GDP (2012-14) Source: Swiss RE – Sigma 4/2015, Dagong Europe Ex. 4: Life and Non-life insurance penetration: premiums as % of GDP (2012-14) Source: Swiss RE – Sigma 4 2015, Dagong Europe  Low insurance density (measured as GPW/Capita) stood at USD 2359 at end-2014: relatively low compared with mature markets where it ranges from USD 2,000 to USD 7,000 per capita, and the world average at USD 662. Considering the structure per sector, as with the global industry Life insurance in China has higher density compared to Non-life, at USD 127 and USD 109 per capita. In our view, the low insurance density is due in general to the relatively short history of the insurance industry in China, relatively low disposable income per capita, a low awareness level and expectations that the government will always support in times of crisis or natural disasters. At the same time, this suggests that market expansion could be immense, as the government shifts from the role of support provider in difficult times to a multi-layer system that allows a more significant role for the private sector (insurance market). It is in line with the broader policy of shifting towards a market-driven economy and similar to the new government’s deposits guarantee scheme implemented for banks. If we assume that China will reach the world average density, insurance industry premiums will increase by almost three times and be twice the size of Japan, the second 9 Swiss Re Sigma 4/ 2015 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% Japan UK France Italy USA Germany World Brazil India China 2012 2013 2014 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Non-lifeLife
  8. 8. Insurance 8 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. largest insurance market by GPW, and reach about 70% of the US, the largest insurance market in the world at end-2014 with GPW of USD 1.28Bn. Ex. 5: Total insurance density: premiums per capita (2012-14) Source: Swiss RE, Dagong Europe In 2014, disposable income in China’s rural areas grew by 11.2% reaching RMB 10.5Th, and in urban areas grew by 9% reaching RMB 28.8Th10 . As insurance awareness increases and disposable income per capita grows, we believe it will shift China’s insurance density rates closer to the world average and those of the developed markets. Ex. 6: Life and non-life insurance density: premiums per capita (2012-14) Source: Swiss RE, Dagong Europe  The largest population in the world: China has the largest population in the world which is steadily growing, with 1.4Bn11 inhabitants in 2014 providing an enormous customer base for the insurance industry. In comparison, Europe’s population was 816Mn, North America’s 354Mn and Latin America’s 619Mn at end-201412 . In 2014 the Chinese population increased by 14.1Mn. In addition, China’s population is aging faster than in Europe or North America. To a certain extent this is a result of the one-child policy, which was relaxed in 2013. We expect its cessation to have a positive impact on the population growth, however the scale of the impact is yet to be seen as many Chinese couples are used to the prospect of having only one child, 10 China National Bureau of Statistics 11 China National Bureau of Statistics 12 Swiss Re Sigma 4 2015 0 1 2 3 4 5 UK USA France Japan Italy Germany World Brazil China India USD Th 2012 2013 2014 0 1 2 3 4 USD Th 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 USD ThLife Non-life
  9. 9. Insurance 9 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. which has been promoted over decades. Having one child is also more practical and economical. Increased urbanisation is also an influencing factor: At the beginning of 2014 the government released some details on the National Urbanisation Plan. It predicts that by 2020 the country will have about 60% of its population living in cities. This will lead to an increase in living standards, medical and protection needs and consequently demand for insurance products. Overall, we expect the aging population to boost demand for new insurance products and services to meet their needs. Relatively dynamic medium-term growth drivers We also identified four relatively dynamic factors important to the Chinese insurance industry’s growth and development: fast economic development, economic growth-oriented policy, accelerating social and technological development, and a market liberalisation-oriented regulatory environment. We believe these factors can change relatively quickly (6 to 18 months), and therefore carry a higher degree of uncertainty regarding future direction and speed of progress. Therefore, we consider them as short to medium-term growth drivers. We believe these factors have moderate to positive trends, and overall positively affect the industry.  Fast economic development: China has been leading the world’s economic growth by the size and the speed of its development. The sustainability of growth and slow down of the economy in the last two years is a matter of concern not only for the Chinese authorities but globally. It is widely perceived that China is entering a lower growth period. In 2014 its GDP grew by 7.3%. We expect the country’s economic growth to slow down to about 6.8% in 2015 and pick up to 7.3% in 2016 (based on Dagong Global estimates), which should be sufficient to stimulate expansion in the insurance sector.  Economic growth-oriented policy: In general, the government’s policy is focused on maintaining economic growth and moving towards a more ‘market-driven’ economy to maintain wealth creation in the country. In 2015 the Chinese government is taking various measures and introducing reforms to address the economic slowdown and deliver targeted GDP growth (such as reducing the reserves ratio requirement for Chinese banks in order to release money and stimulate the economy). The plans are promising, but only time will show if and how well the slowdown in growth can be managed. The government’s policy direction and its predictability is highly important for the development and regulation of China’s insurance market. In September 2014 CIRC published “Opinion on Development of the Modern Insurance Industry”, stating its goal for insurance penetration to reach 5% (implying average annual growth in premiums of 16.5%) and density of USD 571 per person by 2020. It also stated goals for the insurance industry to become an effective stabiliser of society and a booster of the economy. Although sudden changes in policy and individual developments are difficult to foresee, we believe favourable economic policy will further aid the insurance market’s development and growth.  Rapid social and technological development: Socially, China is developing quickly, driven by a rapidly growing middle class and its evolving needs, including a need for more financial security, safety, healthcare and predictability for the future. Chinese society is Source: United Nations Ex. 7: Population (2014) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 RMB Bn In September 2014 CIRC stated its goal for insurance penetration to reach 5%, implying average annual growth in premiums of 16.5%
  10. 10. Insurance 10 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. highly technology-savvy and the penetration of high-tech gadgets in everyday life is high and still growing. As an example, the mobile phone industry has been growing at record levels with mobile subscriptions reaching 1.3Bn in 2014 compared to 0.6Bn13 in 2008. This presents great sales, marketing communication and other opportunities for the insurance industry. Another example is the recent (July 2015) partnership of Alibaba Cloud (Alibaba Group's cloud computing subsidiary) and eBaoTech (insurance software and related services provider) to launch eBaoCloud, an internet insurance cloud platform14 . eBaoCloud is an innovative platform aimed at enabling insurers to launch online internet products, quicker, cheaper, operationally efficient and with the support of big-data analytics. We expect that the increasing use of technology will fuel insurance products and distribution innovation and development, enabling insurers to approach target audiences faster, in more innovative and cost-efficient ways, and it may possibly fundamentally change the nature of certain activities.  Slow, but market-opening and liberalisation-oriented regulatory environment: Regulators have been playing a pivotal role in the industry’s growth and development, however they have tended to be slow and highly protective of domestic players in liberalising and opening up the market. With the recent VAT reforms, the widening of investment limits opening opportunities to invest abroad, and the running of pilots to open up and enhance motor, health, agricultural and other product lines, we expect a positive effect on the industry and its customers. Overview of balance-sheet factors and profitability While GPW is a very popular and common growth metric, it is important not to forget developments on the balance-sheet side. The assets of the Chinese insurance industry on average have been growing even faster than GPW, and in 2014 reached RMB 10.2Tn. The growth in assets is only partially explained by growth in GPW. To a large extent it has been driven by growth in Life, universal and unit-linked products which are asset-heavy, but not included in the GPW calculation. This indicates the enormous power of the industry as an institutional investor and the need for deep and liquid financial markets, and a wide range of investment opportunities. In 1H15 total assets continued to expand rapidly at 12.5%, and reached RMB 11.4Tn. Ex. 8: China's insurance market: assets split (2014 & 2013) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe The growth in total assets has historically been driven mainly by Life insurance companies. However, lately Non-life insurance and reinsurance have increased their assets faster than Life. In 2014 assets belonging to life insurers accounted for over 81% of total industry assets. Non-life increased slightly to 13.8% from 13.2%, and reinsurance increased most to 4.3% from 3.1%. 13 Dagong Europe – Industry Compass: Telecom 2015 14 eBaoTech http://www.ebaotech.com/2015/07/ebaotech-and-alibaba-cloud-launch-worlds-first-internet-insurance- cloud-platform/ 81.2% 13.8% 4.3% 1.7% 2014 82.3% 13.2% 3.1% 1.7% 2013 Life (including A&H) Non-life Reinsurance Asset management Lately, Non-life insurance and reinsurance have increased their assets faster than Life
  11. 11. Insurance 11 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. Ex. 9: China's insurance market: total assets and GPW development Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Investments In 1H15 CIRC expanded its guidance on insurance companies’ investments, relaxed some of the constraints (such as investments abroad), and provided more flexibility for companies to make more risk-based decisions and diversify. We expect this to allow insurers to improve their asset mix, asset and liability matching, increase diversification and possibly improve investment returns. In 2014 Chinese insurers held the majority of their investments in bonds and bank deposits (about 60%), although it has been decreasing over the last few years. The higher risk assets – equities, real estate and other investments, increased their aggregate weighting to 40%. We observed that in 2014 the share of equities held by insurers increased substantially to 14.8%, which is likely to contribute to higher investment returns, but also add volatility and increase the overall risk of the asset portfolio. We also observed that Chinese insurers’ investments abroad have increased, in particular in real estate in US and Europe, and also in foreign banks and insurance companies. Usually the investments are in highly regarded properties in prestigious areas and contribute to asset portfolio diversification (e.g. Anbang Insurance paid Hilton Hotels USD 1.9Bn for the iconic Waldorf Astoria hotel in midtown Manhattan). Capitalisation Overall China’s insurance industry is sufficiently capitalised, according to the existing solvency regime. However, we expect regulatory solvency ratios to weaken when C-ROSS is implemented. In 2014 the total net assets of the combined industry stood at RMB 1.3Tn, up by 56.4% compared with 2013. The growth was fuelled by increased profitability from investments. In 1H15 net assets increased by 15.32% to RMB 1.5Tn. Profitability In 2014 the industry recorded significant improvements in profitability with profits up by 106%. CIRC expects total profit to reach about RMB 230Bn in 1H15, growing by about 200%. The expected improvement in profitability, in our view, is largely driven by more profitable Life business and improved investment results. Underwriting profitability improved across all major sectors, but Health still remains loss-making. We expect profitability to reduce in the second half of 2015, due to significantly increased volatility and the weakening of China’s equity market. -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 RMB Bn Total GPW Total assets Total assets growth % Total GPW growth % Ex. 10: China's insurance market: investment split (July 2015) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe 25% 35% 14% 26% Bank deposits Bonds Equities & investment funds Other investments
  12. 12. Insurance 12 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 6. CHINA’S INSURANCE MARKET STRUCTURE AND LARGEST PLAYERS Impressive market size and continuing high growth, but highly concentrated in the top three largest players and few business lines, in particular motor China’s insurance market regulator requires legal entity separation for Life and Non-life insurance. Currently, the industry is dominated by the Life insurance sector. Accident & Health, according to the CIRC regulation, is included in statistics for the Life sector. However, some Non-life players also provide A&H insurance. In our view, the different risk characteristics, business nature and growth trends merit a separate analysis of these sectors. In the following sections we will look at Life and A&H as separate industries and provide separate statistics where possible. In 2014 the industry’s GPW was divided 53.9% for Life insurance, 35.6% for Non- life and 10.5% for Accident & Health. The market share of Life business has been steadily reducing, offset by growth in Non-life and Accident & Health. Ex. 12: China's insurance market: evolution of GPW composition by major business lines (2007- 14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe At end-2014 there were 71 active Life insurers, 43 of which were regarded as local and 28 foreign; while there were 65 active players in the Non-life market and the local-foreign split was 43 and 2215 . CIRC considers insurers to be foreign-invested if foreign ownership is at 25% or above. They are also subject to different, more thorough regulations. Ex. 13: Number of insurance players in China (2012-14) 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 Active Life insurers 68 70 71 Active Non-life insurers 62 64 65 Local insurers 42 42 43 Local insurers 41 43 43 Foreign-owned insurers 26 28 28 Foreign-owned insurers 21 21 22 Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe 15 CIRC. Representative offices or branches not reported in CIRC’s statistics were not considered in this research. 10.5%9.2%8.1%7.2%6.6%7.2%8.1%8.2% 53.9%54.7%57.5%60.6%66.6%67.0%68.1%63.4% 35.6%36.1%34.4%32.2% 26.8%25.8%23.9%28.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20142013201220112010200920082007 Accident & Health Life Non-life Ex. 11: Chinese insurance market: GPW split by business line (2014) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe 35.6% 53.9% 10.5% Non-Life Life Accident & Health Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe In 2014 the industry’s GPW was divided 53.9% for Life insurance, 35.6% for Non-life, and 10.5% for Accident & Health
  13. 13. Insurance 13 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. Snapshot of the largest five insurance groups In 2014 China’s insurance industry had 14 Insurance groups (9 local and 5 foreign). The main five groups recorded RMB 1,292Bn of GPW, of which Life business accounted for 58% and Non-life for 42%. The overall premiums of these five groups accounted for 64% of total GPW in China, or 59% of Life and 72% of Non-life industry premiums. Below we present the largest five insurance groups by GPW and their market shares in 2014, among them, China Life, PICC and China Tai Ping are state-owned companies:  The largest insurance group in China is China Life with GPW of RMB 371.6Bn and an 18% overall market share. It is highly concentrated in Life (the largest life insurer), with an 89% share of its total GPW, with Non-life accounting for only 11%.  The second largest insurance group is People’s Insurance Company of China (PICC) with GPW of RMB 331.1Bn and 16.4% overall market share. It is highly concentrated in Non-life (the largest Non-life insurer), equivalent to a 76% share of its total GPW, with Life accounting for 24%.  The third largest insurance group is Ping An Insurance with GPW of RMB 316.9 Bn, and a 15.7% overall market share. It is the largest insurance group to have a balanced Life and Non-life business portfolio, with Life accounting for 55% and Non- life for 45% of the group’s premiums.  China Pacific Insurance Company is the fourth largest with GPW of RMB 191.5Bn and a book balanced between Life and Non-life at 52% and 48% respectively. It is significantly smaller than the top 3 groups and its premiums accounted for 9% of the total industry GPW.  China Taiping Insurance Group is the fifth largest with GPW of RMB 81.3Bn and 4% of the overall market share. Life business accounted for 84% and Non-life for 16%. Ex. 14: Top five insurance groups’ GPW and market shares (2014) RMB Mn Market share % Insurer Total GPW Life (incl. A&H) GPW Non-life GPW Overall Market Share (MS) Life (incl. A&H) MS Non-life MS China Life 371,640 89.1% 10.9% 18.4% 26.1% 5.4% PICC 331,137 23.8% 76.2% 16.4% 6.2% 33.5% Ping An 316,852 54.9% 45.1% 15.7% 13.7% 18.9% China Pacific 191,529 51.5% 48.5% 9.5% 7.8% 12.3% China Tai Ping 81,308 83.7% 16.3% 4.0% 5.4% 1.8% Top 5 Total 1,292,466 58.1% 41.9% 63.9% 59.2% 71.8% TOTAL MARKET 2,023,469 62.7% 37.3% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe 7. MAJOR BUSINESS SEGMENTS’ CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS a. LIFE INSURANCE – continues to dominate the market, reinforced by return of high premium growth Market growth In 2014 Life business grew by 16% from 6% in 2013, reaching RMB 1.1Tn and a 5-year CAGR of 7.9%. Looking at overall Life, as reported by CIRC including A&H, GPW grew at 18%, a significant improvement from 8% in 2013, and reached RMB 1.3Tn. In 1H15 Life business continued its high growth with an increase in premiums of 21.3%. This was on the back of a significant contribution from traditional life products, helped by tax incentives. The overall Life business has seen extraordinary historical premium growth rates, with a CAGR of 28.5% during 2006-10, and has dominated the industry with a market share of over In 2014 China’s insurance industry had 14 Insurance groups - 9 local and 5 foreign The main five groups recorded RMB 1,292Bn of GPW, split 58% for Life business and 42% for Non- life
  14. 14. Insurance 14 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 60%. However, growth slackened in 2011 and 2012 due to changes in the reporting basis of China’s GAAP (from 2011 CIRC started to exclude most premiums from variable universal life and investment-linked products), and the new banc-assurance regulation imposed by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) in November 2010, which has limited banks’ ability to collaborate with up to three insurance companies only. Since then there has been a return to growth as life insurers adjust their strategies (including product innovation, improved agents efficiency and reassessed relationships with banks), but to nowhere near the historical highs of 2006-10. Ex. 15: Evolution of Life GPW (2008-14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Growth drivers Going forward, in our view, the life business will be driven by growth in investment products, regulatory reforms promoting regular life products, and tax reforms. Top players and market structure The Life insurance market is highly concentrated: In 2014 the top three insurers accounted for a 48% market share (53.7% in 2013): China Life with 26.1% (30.4% in 2013), Ping An Life with 13.7% (13.6%) and New China Life with 8.7% (9.6%), while the remaining 40 local players accounted for 40.7% (45.7%), and the 28 foreign players shared the remaining 5.8% (5.6%) market share. Over the last three years, the market shares have been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the largest player’s market share (China Life), and an increase in the foreign companies’ share to 5.8%, from 5.6% in 2013. Ex. 16: China's Life insurance market: composition by top 3 players, other domestic players and companies with foreign ownership (2011-14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2014201320122011201020092008 RMB Tn Life GPW Life growth rate % 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2014201320122011 RMB Tn Top 3 domestic players % Other domestic players % Companies with foreign ownership % Total Life GPW
  15. 15. Insurance 15 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. Distribution Banking distribution in China, as in many other countries, is the main distribution channel for life insurance products. Banks and insurance companies have widely adopted the banc- assurance model. Close cooperation or common ownership allows both parties to leverage on their expertise, increase distribution capabilities and customer base, and lower costs by integrating operations. However, banks tend to charge relatively high commissions. The multi and tied-agents sales channels also play a very important role. Historically they have employed a large number of sales agents, however the efficiency and expertise levels have been low, while agent turnover has been high. We believe tied-agents, although with lower volumes, will remain important for traditional life products, which require in-depth knowledge of the product and the customer needs. However, insurance companies need to find a way to train and retrain a quality sales force, increase efficiency and maintain costs. Products The majority of life insurance products in China are short-term investment products (similar to bank deposits), and products with profit-participating features. The high amount of single- premium products which are high-volume, fee-based products, can expose the industry to high top-line volatility, but with relatively low impact on the bottom line. Traditional protection and regular premium products have a relatively low share, but they are very important for the social development, emerging middle class and aging population. We understand that the Chinese government is taking steps to promote development and the spread of protection and pension products and expect to see their share increasing in the coming years. Profitability In 2014 the life insurance industry reported materially higher bottom-line results. Based on our analysis of the top 10 largest life players with an aggregate market share of 82%, net income increased by 56%. The main driver was significantly improved investment income, which grew by about 30%. In our view, the industry showed good overall profitability in 2014, with return on assets reaching 1.4% from 1% in 2013, and return on equity reaching 13.7% from 12.9%. However, the performance is still subject to volatility in capital markets. Overall market results are likely to be worse because our assessment included only the 10 largest players, which have the largest distribution channels and economies of scale, meaning that the number of smaller players most likely had weaker results. b. ACCIDENT AND HEALTH INSURANCE – High growth potential Market growth The Accident & Health insurance sector is developing fast and is increasing its relative weighting in the industry. According to CIRC rules, Accident & Health insurance is categorised under Life business. However, some Non-life companies also write a small amount of Accident & Health insurance. Unfortunately, it is not captured separately in CIRC reporting and is therefore not included in our report. The Accident & Health sector has been growing rapidly at 21.5% 5-year CAGR up to 2014, albeit from historically low levels. Despite the volatile growth rates ranging from -2% to 52%, total premiums have doubled roughly every five years. In 2014, the industry expanded by 34%, the fastest rate in the whole insurance market, and reached GPW of RMB 213Bn. Looking deeper, Accident insurance grew by 17.6% and Health insurance by 41.3%, with GPW of RMB 54Bn and RMB 159Bn respectively. Accident & Health insurance is developing fast and is increasing its relative weighting in the industry
  16. 16. Insurance 16 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. According to CIRC, in the first half of 2015 Health insurance expanded at 39.5%. We expect the sector to grow at approx. 30-45% during 2015-16, based on high and increasing demand, and economic and regulatory stimulus. We expect accident insurance to grow at 17-20%. Ex. 17: Evolution of Accident & Health GPW (2008-14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Growth drivers In our view there are three main factors driving the historical growth in Health insurance, and we expect this trend to continue in the future:  Still under-development public health infrastructure that could meet the demand of the timely, wide-range and high-quality services of such a large population in rural and rapidly expanding urban areas.  Fast-growing demand for healthcare services fuelled by a rapidly growing middle class, an already relatively large affluent segment and increasing attention to health problems exacerbated by the high level of pollution in densely populated areas; and  Growing proportion of the aging population and the rising life expectancy. At end- 2014, 15.5% (14.7% 2013) of China’s population were aged 60 or over, 10.1% (9.7%) of which were aged 65 or over16. In 2014 the proportion of the population above the age of 65 in China was well below the US, Japan and UK with 14%, 26% and 18% respectively17 . It is widely expected that in the coming decades the number of elderly people in China will increase significantly. China’s government recognises the seriousness, complexity and importance of improving the healthcare system and considers related reforms as strategically important. It is encouraging private and foreign investment in the sector to boost the supply of health services and help satisfy the ever-growing demand. There are a number of pilot projects in progress to test various new policies and products before implementing them across the country, such as:  China wants to utilise the expertise that foreign companies can bring to the market, hence encouraging the establishment of the foreign professional health insurance institutions in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ) to promote innovation and development in the industry.  The regulator wants to encourage spread, awareness and affordability, hence it has launched a pilot program offering tax credits for people purchasing commercial health insurance. It allows buyers of commercial health insurance policies each year to deduct up to RMB 2,400 of premium payments from taxable income; and 16 China National Bureau of Statistics 17 The World Bank -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 0 50 100 150 200 2014201320122011201020092008 RMB Bn Accident Health Health growth rate % Accident growth rate %
  17. 17. Insurance 17 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved.  The State Council issued a circular stating that China would expand basic medical insurance to cover critical illnesses for all urban and rural residents by end-2015. Top players The largest private health insurance companies are Ping An Insurance Group (with an approx. 23% market share), PICC Health Insurance (with approx. 19%), and China Life (with aprrox.17%). Distribution The distribution of health products is quite expensive due to the significant administrative burden, and is mainly carried out via own agents’ sales force and brokers (Somewhat similar to the developed markets where brokers dominate, but online platforms are rapidly increasing their importance). In China, new distribution channels utilising internet, mobile and telephone solutions are developing quickly and we expect them to boost the industry. Furthermore, the integration with telemedicine, diagnostics, online prescription sales and electronic medical records could revolutionise the whole healthcare system. A clear example is Ping An’s efforts to integrate insurance products with services via investments in telemedicine and cooperation with Alibaba, which is expanding into the health sector via online drug sales. Accident insurance is mostly distributed by agents, and brokers also distribute a considerable share. In the last few years, telesales and online channels have been expanding rapidly. Products The majority of health insurance products are quite basic and usually cover only medical expenses. Regulators are promoting new product developments (such as critical illness and more comprehensive health covers) and spread across the country. Profitability Although the industry is growing fast, we understand that the majority of players are still making underwriting losses, due to claims expense inflation, high acquisition costs and high price competition. More predictable and transparent medical expenses and better data on customer health would aid prudent underwriting and ensure more accurate pricing levels, and deliver underwriting profits. We believe this will be a difficult task for the industry and the regulator to achieve quickly, and will take a number of years. Key trends and challenges There are still number of direct and indirect challenges affecting the industry’s development, for example public hospitals are dominating healthcare in China and rely heavily on funding from fee-for-service charges and margins on prescribed drugs. Therefore, these service providers have little incentive to collaborate with insurance companies. They often use their monopolistic power to charge patients with private insurance higher fees. In addition, high- quality medical data to assess the health risks for the population is scarce. These factors make the pricing of insurance policies and claims management difficult. Building own high-quality service providing networks is useful and provides solid competitive advantages in the long term, however it is slow and requires significant upfront investment. Private and foreign hospitals could help to mitigate this issue, but they also face considerable challenges such as a shortage of highly qualified staff for the large size of the population, restrictions and complex rules for foreign doctors working in China. The lengthy approval process of importing high-end medical devices is also slowing down industry development. Due to these and other peculiarities of the Chinese market, many successful foreign health insurance companies (e.g. Cigna, MSH and BUPA) who have come to China have struggled to expand meaningfully across the country and have instead concentrated on niches, such as the expatriate community or the local affluent classes demanding high-end service providers. High-quality medical data to assess the health risks for the population is scarce
  18. 18. Insurance 18 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. The lack of tax incentives for group health insurance has also been a drag on the industry, however with new initiatives and pilots this may change and support industry development and the wider public. c. NON-LIFE INSURANCE – Gaining weight and delivering stable growth Market growth In 2014, Non-life business showed another year of solid growth with GPW reaching RMB 720Bn, an increase of 16% compared to 17% in 2013. On a ten-year CAGR basis premiums grew by 20.8% and on a five-year basis by 20.2%. The first half of 2015 showed Non-life GPW of 401.8Bn, with growth slowing to 10.90%. For 2015 we expect growth to slow down to about 10-12%, due to the slowdown in the economy and car sales, but to pick up to about 15% in 2016 as economic and industry-stimulating reforms are implemented. Ex. 18: Evolution of Non-life GPW (2008-14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Growth drivers Non-life insurance remains largely under-penetrated due to various limitations, including basic product range, low awareness, low penetration in rural areas, and lack of effective distribution. In our view the regulatory reforms and growth-oriented economic policy are addressing these issues and as a result will drive the industry’s growth. China’s Non-life insurance market is highly concentrated in the motor business line, which has historically been the main growth driver. It continues to be the main contributor in absolute terms, but the growth in many other lines is picking up and exceeding motor in relative terms. Top players and market structure The Non-life market is even more concentrated than Life: the top three insurers are sharing 64.7% (64.8% in 2013) of the market: PICC 33.5% (34.4% in 2013), Ping An 18.9% (17.8%) and China Pacific 12.3 (12.3%), while the remaining 40 local players account for 33.1% (33.9%) and 22 foreign players for only 2.2% (1.3%). Over the last four years, these market shares have remained relatively stable. In the coming few years we expect the market share of the top three players to remain about the same or slowly reduce as other players advance and present higher direct competition or win new business. We also expect that foreign insurers’ share will slowly increase, helped by improving distribution, brand awareness and the liberalisation of regulatory rules. 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 200 400 600 800 2014201320122011201020092008 RMB Bn Non-life GPW Non-life growth rate % China’s Non-life insurance market is highly concentrated in the motor business line
  19. 19. Insurance 19 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. Ex. 19: China's Non-life insurance market: composition by top 3 players, other domestic players and companies with foreign ownership (2011-14) Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Products The Non-life market is dominated by motor insurance. According to our analysis, based on the 9 largest players covering 84% of total GPW in 2014, motor insurance accounts for 80% of their GPW. We estimate that the overall market share of motor will be slightly lower at 75%, but still very significant. According to the CIRC disclosure for 1H15, agricultural insurance had 5.4%, liability 3.8% and guarantee insurance 2.8% market shares. Note that in developing insurance markets, including China, an over-weighted share of the motor line is quite common and usually relates to mandatory motor insurance. Its share also usually gradually decreases, offset by growth in other lines as the economy and industry develops. Historically motor insurance growth has been driven by the evolution of the number of cars for civilian use, which has jumped from virtually nothing 30 years ago to 83.1Mn18 at end- 2014, making China one of the largest passenger car markets in the world. However, the number of passenger cars per capita stood at only 6 cars per 100 inhabitants in 201419. This is significantly lower compared to the US or Europe where the number of cars per 100 inhabitants was 38 and 49 respectively20 at end-2013. We expect motor to maintain its dominance at least in the medium term, and to continue driving growth for the Non-life sector. Historically, the motor third party liability (MTPL) sector has been open only for domestic players, to protect local companies from more advanced foreign competitors. In our view this has slowed down the overall market development. Only in 2012 did foreign insurers gain full 18 China National Bureau of Statistics 19 China National Bureau of Statistics - Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development, http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html. 20 Dagong Europe – Industry Compass: Automotive 2015 350 450 550 650 750 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 20142013201220112010 RMB Bn Top 3 domestic players % Other domestic players % Companies with foreign ownership % Total Non-life GPW Ex. 20: China's Non-life insurance GPW by business line (2014) Motor 80.4% Property 5% Liability 4% Other 3% Agricultural 2.9% Health 2.3% Accident 2.1% Cargo & Transportation 0.9% Engineering 0.1% Source: Companies’ annual reports, Dagong Europe. Aggregated top 9 largest Non-life players by GPW (excluding China Export & Credit)
  20. 20. Insurance 20 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. access to compulsory liability insurance for motor vehicle accidents and are still trying to build critical mass. The agricultural insurance sector is large and very important in China, with RMB 32.6Bn of premium written in 2014 and 6.2% growth compared to 2013. It is also the world's second- largest agricultural insurance market by premium income after the US. The main insurance coverage was for rice, corn and wheat crops. The sector has grown rapidly since 2007, boosted by a piloted subsidy program to support farmers and stimulate the rural economy. After initial success, material annual subsidies from the ministry of Finance (RMB 12.7Bn in 2013) followed, boosting the industry to its current scale. Since then there have been a number of further regulatory changes, and in 2014 the subsidy program was rolled-out across the country and the coverage of plants and livestock has expanded. Due to the sector’s importance to the world’s largest population, CIRC, the Ministry of Finance and the State Council are strongly committed to further developing and supporting rural communities and the development of agricultural insurance, in particular with the development of national agricultural insurance platforms to enhance agricultural insurance information, and promote and increase the awareness of agricultural insurance. We expect the industry to benefit from these initiatives in terms of both growth and profitability. However, there are still number of hurdles for the development of agricultural insurance, including weak insurance awareness, high distribution costs due to remote locations and difficult access, difficult claims management due to the generally small size of the average farm and the lack of reliable data. Catastrophe and climate-related insurance is still very low, despite China being prone to earthquakes, floods, typhoons, droughts and other natural disasters. We expect this line to grow faster in future, on both the insurance and reinsurance side, driven by government initiatives and increasing awareness of high concentrations of risks in highly populated urban areas. Distribution The major distribution channel for Non-life is direct. However, the efficiency per headcount is low when compared with developed markets. Brokers and multi-agents are also playing important roles, especially for foreign players with limited own-distribution capabilities. Despite this, high commission rates are forcing insurers to focus more on cheaper direct distribution channels. Telephone and internet sales platforms are growing fast. According to the CIRC, the telephone channel took 14.6% and online took a 10.9% share of total motor premium. We expect them to significantly increase their importance in the future. Key trends and challenges In June 2015 the CIRC initiated a pilot scheme for motor-pricing reforms, which aims to modernise and move to a more risk-based pricing. Currently, motor policies pricing is derived from the purchasing prices of new vehicles rather than the risk profile of the driver and frequent claims history has little or no effect on insurance rates. In the first two months on this year the average price of a policy in the pilot areas decreased by about 9%, however the number of policies increased by about 17%. We expect this reform to be beneficial for customers and allow better risk-based pricing. However, we also expect pressure on profitability to increase as the margins are further squeezed and competition intensifies. Profitability In 2014, overall Non-life industry profitably improved, largely driven my increased investment returns. According to our analysis, based on the 9 largest Non-life players covering 84% of Telephone and internet sales platforms are growing fast: the telephone channel took 14.6% and online took a 10.9% share of total motor premium
  21. 21. Insurance 21 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. total GPW in 2014, net income grew by 40% and reached RMB 30.6Bn, and helped to achieve the strong return on equity of 14.4% and return on assets of 3.7%. Ex. 21: China's Non-life insurance gross claims and gross loss ratios Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe Underwriting profitability was low with a net combined ratio of 99.1% compared to 99.2% in 2013. The loss performance improved slightly with a net loss ratio of 62.6% from 64.2% in 2013. However gains on improved losses were offset by an increase in expenses, which we consider high by international standards, with a net expense ratio of 36.4%. Overall gross claims ratio, based on aggregated market financials from CIRC, improved and stood at 53% in 2014. However, the individual performance of the companies varies significantly. Four out of nine companies from our sample accumulated losses in their capital disclosure in 2014, indicating historically poor profitability. Recently, CIRC published its expectations regarding Non-life profitability in 1H15, indicating growth of about 149%, which we believe is also investment-driven and might be exposed to financial market volatility. Digging deeper, our sample analysis revealed that motor and accident insurance, despite high competition, remain among the most profitable lines (measured by underwriting profit over GPW). Guarantee insurance is very small, but also very profitable. Instead, health insurance is still loss-making. Solvency The Non-life industry is relatively well-capitalised according to the existing solvency regime (similar to Solvency I in Europe). Based on our analysis of the top 9 companies, the weighted average solvency ratio stood at 205% in 2014. Solid bottom-line results in 2014 resulted in increased total shareholder’s equity, which stood at 38.3% (31.8% in 2013) relative to Net Premium Written. We are yet to see if these improvements can be sustained and how shareholders’ equity will be affected by turbulent domestic financial markets. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 RMB Bn Gross claims GPW Gross claims ratio % Source: Dagong Europe, companies’ annual reports Ex. 22: China's Non-life insurance underwriting profitability by business line underwriting profit/loss over GPW (2014) -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
  22. 22. Insurance 22 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 8. REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS Regulation is evolving, and gradually opening the market to encourage competition, growth and wider social and economic development China’s insurance market is regulated by CIRC, established in 1998. CIRC is focused on monitoring market behaviour and developing the insurance market while, in our opinion, protecting domestic insurance players. The market has been growing at an impressive pace, and the significant growth spurs have usually been stimulated more by direct regulatory or government actions rather than by market forces. Complex rules, limited transparency, frequent changes and varying interpretation in different regions continue to present significant challenges for market participants and investors. However, we believe that the regulatory framework is slowly moving towards international standards. CIRC is reforming the market at a slow pace, with pilot tests and careful assessments of possible impact. However, as soon as the framework and impact are clear, the pace increases. In recent years, we have seen a number of important reforms and a gradual liberalisation of the country’s insurance industry. The following is a high level summary of the most important regulatory milestones, which in our view were achieved since mid- 2014:  Since 1 June 2014: CIRC allowed all insurers, both foreign and domestic, to own more than one company in the same segment of the industry. Prior to this insurers could own only one company that competed in the same market segment (Life or Non-life). In addition, investors are now allowed to take loans to finance up to 50% of acquisitions instead of using solely their own funds.  August 2014: The State Council issued Several Guiding Opinions Regarding Accelerating the Development of Modern Insurance Services. It focuses on innovation and development in the insurance industry and modernisation of the national governance system and governance capacity. Overall, it shows strong a commitment to further develop the insurance industry in China.  August 2014: The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress amended the Insurance Law. The new law updates a number of areas, among which it liberalises investment rules, raises the criteria for the majority ownership of insurance companies, and expands the business scope of insurance companies. In January 2015, CIRC published a press release describing its main regulatory focus for the year: Ex. 23: Summary of CIRC’s focus for 2015 Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe The major reforms and actions achieved in 2015 fall within the focus areas. Below is a summary of the most important ones: • Commercial auto insurance premium-pricing reform • Universal and participating insurance rate reform towards market-oriented rates • Implementation of the second-generation pension schemes • Use of insurance funds to continue to deepen market-oriented reforms Introduction of major reforms • Accelerate the development of catastrophe insurance • Accelerate tax benefit implementation for pension and health insurance • Accelerate critical illness insurance policy implementation Speeded-up implementation of important policies • Promote compliance with insurance laws and regulations • Establish Insurance-service and management-evaluation systems • Continue improving existing regulation Promote development of the industry supervision China’s insurance market is regulated by CIRC: focused on monitoring market behaviour and developing the insurance market
  23. 23. Insurance 23 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved.  March 2015: CIRC released the ‘Adjustment of Policies on Overseas Investments of Insurance Funds’, which expanded the scope and flexibility for insurers’ investments both domestically and abroad. It allows better investment diversification, asset liability matching, investment returns and risk management. Among the changes, it has expanded the investable foreign universe to 45 markets21 , 25 of which are developed and 20 are emerging markets; it has permitted insurers to invest in Hong Kong’s Growth Enterprise Market22 ; and lowered the minimum credit rating for foreign fixed-income investments to “BBB-” from “BBB”, aligning it with the international investment-grade range.  1H15: CIRC has set up a consortium for earthquake insurance for residential properties in urban and rural areas. Non-life insurers operating for more than three years and with solvency ratios above 150% are eligible to join.  1H15: CIRC announced the set-up of a national information management platform for agricultural insurance, to provide data services for insurance companies, supervisory institutions and government departments in order to facilitate better industry development.  June 2015: CIRC started a pilot for the liberalisation of commercial auto-insurance policy rates in six provinces and cities (Heilongjiang, Shandong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Shaanxi and Qingdao). Insurers in the pilot areas can now price insurance policies and tailor clauses according to the riskiness of the car owner, instead of uniform rates and clauses as before.  July 2015: CIRC released ‘Interim Measures for Regulating the Internet Insurance’, effective from 1 October 2015. It is a first comprehensive rule-set to regulate the fast- growing internet insurance business. Note that one of the major developments over the last few years and probably for a few years to come is the second generation solvency supervision system known as China Risk-Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS). It is widely anticipated that 2016 will be the roll-out year and 2015 has been very important for its preparation. C-ROSS is a three-pillar framework similar to European Solvency II, with quantitative solvency capital calculation (based on the insurer’s exposure to market and credit risks), qualitative assessment and controls, and a market discipline and transparency-enhancing mechanism. From what we understand, it is much simpler than the European SII, but a very significant improvement on the current regime and solvency calculation, based on premiums and losses only. There are also a number of other initiatives and pilot projects focused on customer protection, closer monitoring of insurance intermediaries, and setting up of industry databases, all aimed at addressing important market-wide issues and encouraging industry evolution. In our view, the overall trend of the regulatory changes is positive, but industry players and regulators face many challenges ahead. We believe that to achieve faster industry development and a better service to the population, with comprehensive coverage of important economic risks, the regulator should: speed up market liberalisation; simplify and standardise processes and rules; and align the rules for foreign and domestic players to boost innovation, product development and healthy competition. In doing so it should work closely with foreign regulators to implement best practices. 21 Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungry, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxemburg, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UK, and US. 22 Hong Kong’s Growth Enterprise Market is an alternative equities board operated by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing. China Risk-Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) should be rolled out in 2016
  24. 24. Insurance 24 China’s Insurance Market Overview – Characteristics & Trends 15 September 2015 © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating. All rights reserved. 9. APPENDIXES Appendix 1: China’s insurance market GPW evolution (2008-14) RMB Bn 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total market GPW 978 1,114 1,453 1,434 1,549 1,722 2,023 Non-life GPW 234 288 390 462 533 621 720 Life GPW 666 746 968 870 891 943 1,090 Health GPW 79 80 95 103 125 158 213 Source: CIRC Appendix 2: Key financial indicators of the top 3 Life & Non-life insurers (2014-12) Life Non-life RMB Bn 2012 2013 2014 RMB Bn 2012 2013 2014 Total assets Total assets China Life (国寿股份) 1,898 1,970 2,227 PICC (人保股份) 268 319 366 Ping An (平安寿) 1,031 1,156 1,370 Ping An (平安财) 126 159 194 New China Life (新华) 491 566 644 China Pacific (太保财) 89 100 115 Total GPW Total GPW China Life (国寿股份) 323 327 331 PICC (人保股份) 193 223 252 Ping An (平安寿) 129 142 169 Ping An (平安财) 99 115 143 New China Life (新华) 98 104 110 China Pacific (太保财) 70 82 93 Gross claims paid Gross claims paid China Life (国寿股份) 75 139 109 PICC (人保股份) 109 133 145 Ping An (平安寿) 29 29 33 Ping An (平安财) 48 58 65 New China Life (新华) 8 9 17 China Pacific (太保财) 39 48 54 Net income Net income China Life (国寿股份) 11 25 33 PICC (人保股份) 10 11 15 Ping An (平安寿) 8 14 17 Ping An (平安财) 5 6 9 New China Life (新华) 3 5 6 China Pacific (太保财) 3 3 1 Source: CIRC, Dagong Europe DISCLAIMERS NO CONTENT (INCLUDING CREDIT-RELATED ANALYSES AND DATA, VALUATIONS, OR OUTPUT THEREFROM) OR ANY PART THEREOF (“CONTENT”) MAY BE MODIFIED, REVERSE ENGINEERED, REPRODUCED OR DISTRIBUTED IN ANY FORM BY ANY MEANS, OR STORED IN A DATABASE OR RETRIEVAL SYSTEM, WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF DAGONG EUROPE. DAGONG EUROPE DOES NOT INTEND TO ASSUME, AND IS NOT ASSUMING, ANY RESPONSIBILITY OR LIABILITY TO ANY PARTY ARISING OUT OF, OR WITH RESPECT TO, THIS CONTENT. THIS CONTENT IS NOT INTENDED TO, AND DOES NOT, FORM A PART OF ANY CONTRACT WITH ANYONE, EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY. THE CONTENT SHALL NOT BE USED FOR ANY UNLAWFUL OR UNAUTHORIZED PURPOSES. RELATIONSHIP WITH ENTITIES OR INDIVIDUALS DAGONG EUROPE DOES NOT HAVE A FIDUCIARY RELATIONSHIP WITH ANY ENTITY OR OTHER INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING THIS RESEARCH. NOTHING IS INTENDED TO OR SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS CREATING A FIDUCIARY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DAGONG EUROPE AND ANY INDIVIDUAL OR ENTITY RECEIVING THIS RESEARCH. DAGONG EUROPE DOES NOT PROVIDE TO ANY PARTY ANY CONSULTANCY SERVICE, FINANCIAL ADVICE OR LEGAL, AUDITING, ACCOUNTING, APPRAISAL, VALUATION OR ACTUARIAL SERVICES. © 2015 Dagong Europe Credit Rating Srl (collectively, “Dagong Europe”). All rights reserved.
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