EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL_ Pertemuan 12_Foreign Exchange & Exchange Rate System.pdf

1. Foreign Exchange & Exchange Rate System [VALAS & SISTEM NILAI TUKAR]

2. BOP Triwulanan

3. (255,809) (369,686) (360,373) (420,666) (496,243) (610,838) (716,542) (763,533) (710,997) (712,350) (394,771) (503,087) (554,522) (525,906) (446,861) (483,952) (491,421) (481,475) (512,739) (580,950) (576,341) (676,684) (845,047) 135,317 156,067 133,212 149,414 188,380 250,900 291,418 320,975 371,794 415,225 369,172 443,028 473,625 464,813 476,212 482,054 454,915 467,322 561,271 585,260 569,102 495,722 582,837 (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Balance on goods and services Primary Income Receipts Primary Income Receipts: Investment income: Direct investment income (IEAXIDA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) Balance on goods and services (IEABCGSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) AS: Neraca Perdagangan Barang – Jasa & Penerimaan Pendapatan Investasi Langsung Millions of Dollars, Annual Selisih Trade Balance & Primary Income 1,427,884

4. 2015 NILAI INVESTASI 2016 NILAI INVESTASI 2017 NILAI INVESTASI 2018 NILAI INVESTASI 2019 NILAI INVESTASI 1 Singapura 5.901,18 Singapura 8.441,60 Singapura 9.193,18 Singapura 9.193,18 Singapura 6.509,63 2 Jepang 2.876,99 Jepang 5.400,90 Jepang 4.996,20 Jepang 4.952,77 R.R. Tiongkok 4.744,51 3 Belanda 1.307,78 R.R. Tiongkok 2.665,30 R.R. Tiongkok 3.361,20 R.R. Tiongkok 2.376,54 Jepang 4.310,91 4 Korea Selatan 1.213,47 Hongkong 2.248,30 Hongkong 2.116,50 Hongkong 2.011,42 Hongkong 2.890,99 5 Hongkong 937,20 Belanda 1.475,00 Korea Selatan 2.024,60 Korea Selatan 1.604,72 Belanda 2.596,78 6 USA 893,16 USA 1.161,90 USA 1.992,80 USA 1.217,62 Korea Selatan 1.070,21 7 R.R. Tiongkok 628,30 Korea Selatan 1.065,80 Belanda 1.489,40 Australia 1.010,77 USA 989,31 7 Negara Investor Terbesar di Indonesia Tahun 2015 - 2019 (JUTA US $)

5. Foreign Cash Flow Chart of a Multinational Corporation (MNC) Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

7. Export Import Barang & Jasa Dunia Valas/Forex USD 7,5 Triliun/hari https://id.linkedin.com/company/forex-trading-unlocked-inc- The foreign exchange or forex market is the largest financial market in the world – larger even than the stock market, with a daily volume of $7.5 trillion, according to the 2022 Triennial Central Bank Survey of FX and OTC derivatives markets. https://www.trademap.org https://www.bis.org

8. GDP DUNIA = USD 85 triliun / Tahun FOREX = USD 6,6 triliun / Hari = USD 1.980 triliun / Thn VS Valas/Forex USD 7,5 Triliun/hari https://id.linkedin.com/company/forex-trading-unlocked-inc-

9. 50,791 60,854 32,551 47,753 54,884 47,401 54,697 64,195 68,000 66,960 93,529 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 Global market capitalization

10. Currency distribution of OTC foreign exchange turnover Net-net basis,1 percentage shares of average daily turnover in April2 Table 2 Currency 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank USD 88.0 1 85.6 1 84.9 1 87.0 1 87.6 1 88.3 1 EUR 37.4 2 37.0 2 39.0 2 33.4 2 31.4 2 32.3 2 JPY 20.8 3 17.2 3 19.0 3 23.0 3 21.6 3 16.8 3 GBP 16.5 4 14.9 4 12.9 4 11.8 4 12.8 4 12.8 4 AUD 6.0 6 6.6 6 7.6 5 8.6 5 6.9 5 6.8 5 CAD 4.2 7 4.3 7 5.3 7 4.6 7 5.1 6 5.0 6 CHF 6.0 5 6.8 5 6.3 6 5.2 6 4.8 7 5.0 7 CNY³ 0.1 29 0.5 20 0.9 17 2.2 9 4.0 8 4.3 8 HKD³ 1.8 9 2.7 8 2.4 8 1.4 13 1.7 13 3.5 9 NZD³ 1.1 13 1.9 11 1.6 10 2.0 10 2.1 10 2.1 10 SEK 2.2 8 2.7 9 2.2 9 1.8 11 2.2 9 2.0 11 KRW³ 1.1 11 1.2 14 1.5 11 1.2 17 1.7 15 2.0 12 SGD³ 0.9 14 1.2 13 1.4 12 1.4 15 1.8 12 1.8 13 NOK³ 1.4 10 2.1 10 1.3 13 1.4 14 1.7 14 1.8 14 MXN³ 1.1 12 1.3 12 1.3 14 2.5 8 1.9 11 1.7 15 INR³ 0.3 20 0.7 19 0.9 15 1.0 20 1.1 18 1.7 16 RUB³ 0.6 17 0.7 18 0.9 16 1.6 12 1.1 17 1.1 17 ZAR³ 0.7 16 0.9 15 0.7 20 1.1 18 1.0 20 1.1 18 TRY³ 0.1 28 0.2 26 0.7 19 1.3 16 1.4 16 1.1 19 BRL³ 0.3 21 0.4 21 0.7 21 1.1 19 1.0 19 1.1 20 TWD³ 0.4 18 0.4 22 0.5 23 0.5 23 0.6 23 0.9 21 DKK³ 0.9 15 0.8 16 0.6 22 0.8 21 0.8 21 0.6 22 PLN³ 0.4 19 0.8 17 0.8 18 0.7 22 0.7 22 0.6 23 THB⁴ 0.2 22 0.2 25 0.2 26 0.3 27 0.4 24 0.5 24 IDR⁴ 0.1 27 0.1 29 0.2 30 0.2 30 0.2 31 0.4 25 https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19.htm Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets in 2019

11. OTC foreign exchange turnover Net-net basis,1 daily averages in April, in billions of US dollars Table 1 Instrument 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Foreign exchange instruments 1,934 3,324 3,973 5,357 5,066 6,595 Spot transactions 631 1,005 1,489 2,047 1,652 1,987 Outright forwards 209 362 475 679 700 999 Foreign exchange swaps 954 1,714 1,759 2,240 2,378 3,203 Currency swaps 21 31 43 54 82 108 Options and other products² 119 212 207 337 254 298 Memo: Turnover at April 2019 exchange rates3 1,854 3,071 3,602 4,827 4,958 6,595 Exchange-traded derivatives4 25 77 144 145 115 127 https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19.htm Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets in 2019

12. Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover Net-net basis Daily averages, in millions of US dollars https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19.htm

13. OTC Foreign Exchange Turnover

14. Global OTC Derivatives Market BIS Statistics Explorer: Table D5.1

15. Barter: 6000 BC Gold and the Oldest Civilizations: 5000 BC Commodity Money: 1000 BC Bimetallism: Romawi, Persia, Islamic Civilization Before 1875 Classical Gold Standard: 1875–1914 Interwar Period: WW 1, 1914 – 1918. WW 2, 1939 – 1945 1915–1944 Bretton Woods System: 1945–1971 FERR: The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime 1971–Present The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 1 2 3 4 8 7 6 5 CENTER OF STUDIES 3B ECONOMICS

16. Stabilitas Nilai Tukar Mata Uang 14 Negara Maju Sumber: Michael D. Bordo, Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective

17. There are 180 different kinds of official currencies in the world. However, most international forex trades and payments are made using the U.S. dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, and the euro. Other popular currency trading instruments include the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. Currency trading occurs continuously around the world, 24 hours a day, five days a week.

18. A Day of Foreign- Exchange Trading Secara tradisional, hari perdagangan dimulai di Auckland, Selandia Baru, yang terletak tepat di sebelah barat garis penanggalan internasional. Saat bumi berputar, pasar valuta asing terbuka di kota- kota lain, termasuk Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapura, Bahrain, Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris, London, New York, Chicago, dan San Francisco. International Business, A Managerial Perspective. eighth edition, Ricky W. Griffin • Michael W. Pustay

19. Definisi Nilai Tukar (Exchange Rate) Nilai tukar (E) adalah harga mata uang asing yang dinyatakan dalam mata uang dalam negeri (atau domestik). Rp 14.000 / $

20. Motif Umum Memasuki Pasar Keuangan Internasional 1. Kondisi perekonomian – Kondisi perekonomian Indonesia yg relatif lebih baik dg negara tetangga dapat menstimulan masuknya arus dana uk membeli surat berharga di Indonesia. 2. Harapan terhadap kurs valas 3. Diversifikasi Internasional 4. Tingginya suku bunga internasional – Mata uang domestik yg cenderung terdepresiasi, dpt meningkatkan rasio suku bunga domestik terhadap suku bunga negara lain.

21. Motif Berburu Dana Di Pasar Internasional 1. Suku bunga rendah – Kelebihan dana internasional → suku bunga rendah – Valas yg dipinjam ketika dikonversi ke dalam mata uang domestik akan menjadi lebih rendah nilainya dibanding ketika digunakan uk membeli kembali valas tersebut uk membayar pinjaman (currency mismatch dan maturity mismatch) 2. Harapan Kurs Valas

22. Pasar EuroCurrency Euro Currency Euro Dollar Petro Dollar Dev. Countries 1.Perusahaan AS mendepositokan dolar AS di bank-2 Eropa (Eurodollars). 2.Euro dollars semakin masif disebabkan dua faktor: pertama, reserve requirements tdk dikenakan terhadap deposito Eurodollars. Kedua, mendapat kucuran dana dari OPEC yg mendapatkan windfall profit (petrodollars).

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24. Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Foreign exchange (FX) market = Pasar dimana mata uang (dan atau currency derivatives) sebuah negara dan mata uang negara lainnya ditransaksikan secara global dan elektronik, yang kemudian darinya terbentuk harga (nilai) mata uang sebuah negara terhadap mata uang negara lainnya. Is Forex Trading Really Profitable? - The European Financial Review

25. 2 Tingkatan Dalam Pasar Valas 1. Pasar eceran (retail market) – Spread lebih besar 2. Pasar antarbank (interbank market) – Spread lebih tipis Understanding the Interbank Forex Market | Signal Skyline

26. Cheol S. Eun dan Bruce G. Resnick, International Financial Management, 8th edition, McGraw-Hill Education, New York, 2018. What Countries Trade the Most Forex? Top three countries with the largest volume being traded in the Forex market are the United Kingdom, United States and Singapore.

27. What Countries Trade the Most Forex? Forex Market Size, Volume And Liquidity (forexschoolonline.com) The last Bank for International Settlements report showed that the top three countries with the largest volume being traded in the Forex market are the United Kingdom, United States and Singapore.

28. 11.755 13.142 26.748 24.39 48.3 30.118 32.261 58.608 50.757 107.699 9.745 10.966 20.146 18.234 44.614 26.191 26.045 48.69 43.873 98.122 2.01 2.176 6.602 6.156 3.686 3.927 6.216 9.918 6.884 9.577 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Gain Loss Net Capital Gain & Loss Transaksi Valas Pada Bank Umum (billion Rp)

29. Leading foreign exchange trading services worldwide as of June 2020, by market share • Leading Forex trading services by market share 2020 | Statista History of Forex - Limit Markets Blog Top ten banks control more than 60% of daily forex market volume.

30. The participants in the Forex market The participants in the Forex market - Swagforex.com

31. Market Participants The Foreign Exchange Interbank Market (investopedia.com) Market participants include forex brokers, hedge funds, retail investors, corporations, central banks, governments, and institutional investors such as pension funds. The foreign exchange (also known as FX or forex) market is a global marketplace for exchanging national currencies against one another.

32. Market Participants What is Foreign Exchange Market? definition and meaning - Business Jargons The structure of the foreign exchange market constitutes central banks, commercial banks, brokers, exporters and importers, immigrants, investors, tourists. At the bottom of a pyramid are the actual buyers and sellers of the foreign currencies- exporters, importers, tourist, investors, and immigrants. They are actual users of the currencies and approach commercial banks to buy it. These are the main players of the foreign market, their position and place are shown in the figure below.

33. Figure 13.1 The Mechanics of Petrodollar Recycling Petrodollar Under Threat As Russia Sells Oil For Renminbi - News Punch

34. Credit Market & Forex Market

35. Impact of Monetary Policy across Financial Markets Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

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37. Apresiasi & Depresiasi Do Tucson Manufactured Homes In Tucson Hold Value (selltucsonmobilehomefast.com) What Is Depreciation and How to Calculate It - PeaNich

38. Nilai Tukar $ Terhadap £ Manakah yg Apresiasi & Depresiasi ?? 1 2 3

39. 2 Jenis Kutipan Nilai Tukar Karena nilai tukar adalah harga relatif dari dua mata uang, nilai tukar dapat dikutip (quoted) dengan salah satu dari dua cara: 1. Jumlah unit mata uang dalam negeri yang dapat ditukar dengan satu unit mata uang asing. Misalnya, jika Amerika Serikat dianggap sebagai mata uang domestic (home), nilai tukar dolar– euro mungkin $1,15 per euro (atau 1,15 $/€). Untuk membeli satu euro, Anda harus membayar $1,15. 2. Jumlah unit mata uang asing yang dapat ditukar dengan satu unit mata uang dalam negeri. Misalnya, nilai tukar 1,15$/€ juga dapat dinyatakan sebagai 0,87 per dolar AS (atau 0,87 €/$). Untuk membeli satu dolar, Anda harus membayar €0,87.

40. On December 31, 2012, for example, the euro was quoted at $1.318 per euro. According to our definition, this is the price from the U.S. perspective and it is sometimes called the American terms. Conversely, the dollar is quoted at €0.759 per dollar, the European terms.

41. Direct versus Indirect Quotations at One Point in Time • Kutipan nilai tukar mata uang biasanya mencerminkan harga permintaan untuk transaksi besar. • Kutipan yang melaporkan nilai mata uang asing dalam dolar (jumlah dolar per unit mata uang lain) disebut kutipan langsung, sedangkan kutipan yang melaporkan jumlah unit mata uang asing per dolar dikenal sebagai kutipan tidak langsung .. (Direct Quotation) Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura Rp/$ $/Rp $ 1 Rp 1 Rp 14000 $ 0.00007143 Direct (American Term) Indirect (European Term)

42. 1. Kolom pertama memberikan kutipan langsung dari perspektif A.S., yaitu harga satu unit mata uang asing dalam dolar A.S. Misalnya, kutipan spot untuk satu pound Inggris adalah 1,4402. (Kutipan berjangka untuk kontrak satu, tiga, dan enam bulan, yang akan dibahas di bagian berikut, muncul langsung di bawah kutipan spot untuk lima mata uang.) 2. Kolom kedua memberikan kutipan tidak langsung dari perspektif A.S., yaitu harga satu dolar A.S. dalam mata uang asing. Misalnya, kita melihat bahwa kutipan spot untuk satu dolar dalam pound sterling Inggris adalah £ 0,6944. Jelaslah, kutipan langsung dari perspektif AS adalah kutipan tidak langsung dari sudut pandang Inggris, dan kutipan tidak langsung dari perspektif AS adalah kutipan langsung dari sudut pandang Inggris.

43. Sebagian besar mata uang di pasar antar bank dikutip dalam istilah Eropa, yaitu dolar AS dihargai dalam mata uang asing (kutipan tidak langsung dari perspektif AS). Namun, menurut konvensi, merupakan praktik standar untuk menentukan harga mata uang tertentu dalam dolar AS, atau dalam apa yang disebut istilah Amerika (kutipan langsung dari perspektif AS).

44. • Ini adalah praktik umum di antara pedagang mata uang di seluruh dunia untuk menentukan harga dan memperdagangkan mata uang terhadap dolar AS. Misalnya, statistik BIS menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2016, 88 persen perdagangan mata uang di dunia melibatkan dolar di satu sisi transaksi. Selain itu, dari semua perdagangan mata uang yang melibatkan euro di satu sisi transaksi, 21 persen melibatkan yen Jepang, 13 persen pound Inggris, 7 persen dolar Australia, dan 5 persen masing-masing franc Swiss dan dolar Kanada. Tampilan 5.5 memberikan analisis rinci tentang perputaran valuta asing menurut mata uang.

45. Jual & Beli Valas 𝐽𝑢𝑎𝑙 = 𝐽𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑦𝑔 𝑎𝑘𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑘𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 𝐽𝑢𝑎𝑙 (𝑎𝑠𝑘) 𝐵𝑒𝑙𝑖 = 𝐽𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑦𝑔 𝑎𝑘𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑘𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖 𝑥 ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑖 (𝑏𝑖𝑑) Bid & Offer Rates Spread % = (Po – Pb) / Po x 100 Spread % = (13,801 – 13,663) / 13,801 x 100 = 0.99% Kurs beli (bid): Kurs dimana bank bersedia membeli valas Kurs jual (ask): Kurs dimana bank bersedia menjual valas

46. Cross Exchange Rates 1. Jenis mata uang yg tdk memiliki pasar valas yg aktif 2. Hanya saja, kurs mata uang ke 2 negara tersebut selalu tersedia dl Dollar AS 3. €1,0646/$ : ¥0,0081/$ = €1 = ¥131,4483

47. Factors That Affect the Spread Bank umum mengenakan biaya untuk melakukan transaksi valuta asing; jadi mereka membeli mata uang dari pelanggan dengan harga yang sedikit lebih rendah daripada harga di mana mereka menjualnya. Ini berarti bahwa harga bid (harga beli) bank untuk mata uang asing akan selalu lebih kecil dari harga permintaannya (quote jual). Perbedaan antara harga bid dan ask dikenal sebagai bid/ask spread, yang dimaksudkan untuk menutupi biaya yang terkait dengan pemenuhan permintaan untuk menukar mata uang. Bid/ask spread yang lebih besar menghasilkan lebih banyak pendapatan bagi bank komersial, tetapi menunjukkan biaya yang lebih tinggi bagi individu atau MNC yang terlibat dalam transaksi valuta asing. Bid/ask spread biasanya dinyatakan sebagai persentase dari kutipan permintaan. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

48. Biaya pemesanan. Biaya pesanan adalah biaya pemrosesan pesanan; biaya tersebut termasuk biaya kliring dan biaya pencatatan transaksi. Biaya persediaan. Biaya persediaan adalah biaya pemeliharaan persediaan mata uang tertentu. Menyimpan inventaris melibatkan biaya peluang karena dana tersebut dapat digunakan untuk tujuan lain. Jika tingkat suku bunga relatif tinggi, maka biaya peluang untuk menyimpan persediaan seharusnya relatif tinggi. Semakin tinggi biaya inventaris, semakin besar perbedaan (spread) yang akan dibuat untuk menutupi biaya ini. Factors That Affect the Spread Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

49. Kompetisi. Semakin ketat persaingan, semakin kecil spread yang dikutip oleh perantara. Persaingan lebih ketat untuk mata uang yang diperdagangkan lebih luas karena ada lebih banyak bisnis dalam mata uang tersebut. Pembentukan platform perdagangan yang memungkinkan MNC untuk berdagang secara langsung satu sama lain merupakan bentuk persaingan dengan pedagang valuta asing, dan hal ini memaksa dealer untuk mengurangi spread agar tetap kompetitif. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

50. Volume. Mata uang yang lebih likuid cenderung tidak mengalami perubahan harga yang tiba-tiba. Mata uang yang memiliki volume perdagangan besar lebih likuid karena ada banyak pembeli dan penjual pada waktu tertentu. Ini berarti bahwa pasar memiliki kedalaman yang cukup sehingga beberapa transaksi besar kemungkinan tidak akan menyebabkan harga mata uang berubah secara tiba-tiba. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

51. Resiko mata uang. Beberapa mata uang menunjukkan volatilitas yang lebih tinggi daripada yang lain karena kondisi ekonomi atau politik yang menyebabkan permintaan dan penawaran mata uang berubah secara tiba- tiba. Misalnya, mata uang di negara-negara yang sering mengalami krisis politik dapat mengalami pergerakan harga yang tiba-tiba. Perantara yang bersedia membeli atau menjual mata uang ini dapat mengalami kerugian besar karena perubahan nilainya. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

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53. Perbedaan Transaksi Melalui Exchange & OTC BASIS FOR COMPARISON OTC (OVER THE COUNTER) EXCHANGE Meaning Over the Counter or OTC is a decentralized dealer market wherein brokers and dealers transact directly via computer networks and phone. Exchange is an organized and regulated market, wherein trading of stocks takes place between buyers and sellers in a safe, transparent and systematic manner. Market maker Dealer Exchange itself Used by Small companies Well established companies Physical Location No Yes Trading hours 24×7 Exchange hours Stocks Unlisted Stocks Listed Stocks Transparency Low Comparatively high Contracts Customized Standardized Difference Between OTC and Exchange (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

54. Contoh: Exchange & OTC Market Exchange Traded Vs OTC Markets - Difference Between OTC & Exchange (paytmmoney.com) Jika Tuan X mencoba menjual rumah, dia bisa melalui broker real estat yang dilengkapi dengan aturan terstruktur, peraturan, dan biaya untuk menghubungkannya dengan pembeli. Atau dia bisa dengan mudah memasang tanda “Dijual” di luar rumah dan mencari pembeli sendiri. Pialang real estat di sini analog dengan pasar yang diperdagangkan di bursa sedangkan menjual di rumah sendiri tanpa mengikuti aturan apa pun akan seperti perdagangan OTC. Difference Between OTC and Exchange (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

55. 2 Jenis (Waktu) Transaksi Valas Valas Spot Cash (same day settlement) Tom (one day settlement) Spot (2 x 24 Jam) Forward Pengiriman valas di masa mendatang There are two basic types of exchange rates, depending on the timing of the actual exchange of money.

56. 3 Bentuk Fisik Transaksi Valas Valas Investasi Fisik Jual – Beli, Spread Surat Berharga Deposito, Reksadana Transaksi Margin Percentage Base Margin Fixed Amount Margin (leverage ratio) Rasio jumlah dana yang bisa ditransaksikan dengan modal sendiri (sebagai collateral atau jaminan) yang dimiliki. Memberikan pinjaman kepada investor sebesar persentase tertentu dari nilai transaksi.

57. 1. Percentage based margin memberikan pinjaman kepada investor sebesar persentase tertentu dari nilai transaksi. Margin diberikan pada mata uang yang menjadi base currency dalam kuotasi. Contoh: dengan jaminan (collateral) sebesar 1% maka untuk bisa bertransaksi dengan nilai kontrak sebesar $100,000 (1 lot), investor cukup menyediakan dana sebesar $1,000 (1% x $100,000). 2. Rasio leverage untuk setiap broker bisa berlainan satu sama lain, misal 1:50, 1:100, 1:200 atau 1:400. Dengan leverage 1:100 maka investor cukup menyediakan dana sebesar $1 untuk bisa trading dengan size sebesar $100. Sebagai contoh jika memiliki dana sebesar $2,000 maka dengan leverage 1:100 kita bisa membeli sampai sebesar $200,000 (200.000 unit). Pada prinsipnya perdagangan forex dengan sistem margin adalah pertukaran atau perdagangan mata uang dengan mata uang lainnya dalam satuan kontrak dengan jaminan atas transaksi (necessary margin). Artinya, perdagangan ini tidak melibatkan mata uang secara fisik, melainkan hanya nilainya saja. Dengan demikian, investor tidak perlu menyetor modal sebesar nilai fisik transaksinya.

58. • Harga pasar GBP 1 = USD1.8850 Beli: USD 10,000 (1 lot) Nilai transaksi: USD 18,850 (USD 10,000 x GPB 1.8850) Initial margin: 1% Dibutuhkan dana: USD 100 (1%x USD 10,000) • Ketika harga pasar GPB 1 = USD 1.8950 Jual: USD10,000 (1 lot) Diperoleh hasil: USD 18.950 (USD 10,000 x GPB 1.8950) Keuntungan: USD 100 (USD 18.950 - USD 18.850) Rate of Return: 100% (USD 100/USD 100 x 100%)

59. OTC or Over the counter market is a decentralised market for unlisted securities, not having a specific physical location, rather the firms/persons involved in trading directly negotiate over a communication network such as telephone lines, emails, computer terminals, etc. Trading Over the counter is also called off-exchange trading, because of the absence of a formal exchange. Pasar OTC atau Over the counter adalah pasar terdesentralisasi untuk sekuritas yang tidak terdaftar, tidak memiliki lokasi fisik tertentu, melainkan perusahaan/orang yang terlibat dalam perdagangan secara langsung bernegosiasi melalui jaringan komunikasi seperti saluran telepon, email, terminal komputer, dll. Difference Between OTC and Exchange (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

60. Spot & Forward

61. Today, Tomorrow, Spot 1. Today adalah transaksi pembelian atau penjualan valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada hari ini dengan penyerahan hari ini juga. 2. Tomorrow adalah transaksi pembelian atau penjualan valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada hari ini dengan penyerahan 1 hari kerja setelah tanggal transaksi. 3. Spot adalah transaksi pembelian atau penjualan valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada hari ini dengan penyerahan 2 hari kerja setelah tanggal transaksi.

62. DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENT 71

63. Derivative Contracts in the Foreign Exchange Market ✓ The term derivative refers to a type of financial contract whose value is dependent on an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark. A derivative is set between two or more parties that can trade on an exchange or over-the- counter (OTC). Prices for derivatives derive from fluctuations in the underlying asset. ✓ Derivatives are securities whose value is dependent on or derived from an underlying asset. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition. Jeff Madura Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

64. Derivative Contracts in the Foreign Exchange Market ▪ Derivatif adalah instrumen keuangan yang memperoleh nilai/harganya dari nilai aset lain, yang dikenal sebagai aset dasar. ▪ Aset dasar yang umum adalah saham, obligasi, komoditas, mata uang, suku bunga, dll. Derivatives meaning : Forward, Futures, Option & Swap (economyria.com)

65. Derivative market financial crisis and more cba options ... (fc2.com)

66. ▪ Karena derivatif tidak memiliki nilai intrinsik (nilainya hanya berasal dari aset dasar), derivatif rentan terhadap sentimen pasar dan risiko pasar. ▪ Faktor penawaran dan permintaan dapat menyebabkan harga derivatif dan likuiditasnya naik dan turun, terlepas dari apa yang terjadi dengan harga aset dasar. Derivative Definition (investopedia.com) Derivatives have become increasingly popular in recent decades, with the total value of derivatives outstanding currently estimated at over $600 trillion.

67. Global OTC Derivatives Market BIS Statistics Explorer: Table D5.1

68. Advantages and Disadvantages of Derivatives Advantages Disadvantages ▪ Lock in prices ▪ Hedge against unfavorable movements in rates (Mitigate risks) ▪ Can be leveraged ▪ Diversify portfolio ▪ Hard to value ▪ Complex to understand ▪ Sensitive to supply and demand factors Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

69. Underlying Assets Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

70. Derivative Contracts in the Foreign Exchange Market ✓ A currency derivative is a contract with a price that is partially derived from the value of the underlying currency that it represents. ✓ Three types of currency derivatives that are often used by MNCs are forward contracts, currency futures contracts, and currency options contracts. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition. Jeff Madura Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

71. MNC in Derivative Forex Market ➢ In some cases, an MNC may prefer to lock in an exchange rate at which it can obtain a currency in the future. ➢ Multinational corporations commonly request forward contracts to hedge future payments that they expect to make or receive in a foreign currency. ➢ In this way, they do not have to worry about fluctuations in the spot rate until the time of their future payments. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura derivative forex - Bing

72. Transaksi Forward Transaksi Forward • Adalah suatu transaksi/kontrak pembelian atau penjualan suatu valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada tanggal valuta asing di masa yang akan datang dengan rate / harga yang ditentukan sekarang (pada tanggal kontrak). • Jangka Waktu; Transaksi forward dapat dilakukan untuk jangka waktu 1 minggu sampai dengan 1 tahun.

73. Motif Forward 1. Tujuan Transaksi Forward Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan cicilan hutang dalam mata uang asing dan mengantisipasi kecenderungan kurs valuta asing yang meningkat, Anda dapat melakukan pembelian forward dengan jangka waktu yang sesuai dengan jadwal pembayaran cicilan hutang. 2. Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pembayaran L/C impor dan mengantisipasi kecenderungan kurs valuta asing yang meningkat, importir dapat melakukan pembelian forward dengan jangka waktu sesuai saat pembayaran L/C impor. 3. Untuk mengantisipasi kecenderungan kurs valuta asing yang menurun, eksportir dapat melakukan transaksi jual forward dengan jangka waktu sesuai dengan penerimaan pembayaran ekspor.

74. Mekanisme transaksi forward digambarkan pada diagram di bawah ini: • Many MNCs use the forward market to hedge their payables and receivables. For example, Google, Inc., normally has forward contracts in place that are valued at more than $1 billion. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

75. For example, the futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil that trades on the CME and represents 1,000 barrels of oil. If the price of oil rose from $62.22 to $80 per barrel, the trader with the long position—the buyer—in the futures contract would have profited $17,780 [($80 - $62.22) x 1,000 = $17,780]. The trader with the short position—the seller—in the contract would have a loss of $17,780. Derivative Definition (investopedia.com)

76. Forward: Premium & Discount Forward Premium (Kurs Forward lebih mahal Kurs Spot) Forward Discount (Kurs Forward lebih rendah Kurs Spot) Forward premium is when the forward exchange rate is higher than the spot exchange rate. Forward discount is the opposite of forward premium, it when the forward exchange rate is lower than the spot exchange rate.

77. • annualized forward premium/discount = forward rate – spot rate  360 spot rate n where n is the number of days to maturity • Example: Suppose £ spot rate = $1.681, 90-day £ forward rate = $1.677. $1.677 – $1.681 x 360 = – 0.95% $1.681 90 So, forward discount = 0.95% Forward Market

78. Currency Futures Contracts Futures contracts are similar to forward contracts but are sold on an exchange instead of over the counter. 1. A currency futures contract specifies a standard volume of a particular currency to be exchanged on a specific settlement date. 2. The futures rate is the exchange rate at which one can purchase or sell a specified currency on the settlement date in accordance with the futures contract. 3. Thus the futures rate’s role in a futures contract is similar to the forward rate’s role in a forward contract. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

79. Currency Options Contracts

80. Currency Options Contracts Currency option adalah kontrak antara dua pihak yang memberikan hak kepada pembeli untuk membeli (call) atau menjual (put) sejumlah mata uang (FX) dasar tertentu pada atau sebelum tanggal tertentu dengan harga tertentu. Currency option pada dasarnya adalah hak yang diberikan kepada pembeli mata uang asing untuk membeli atau menjual sejumlah mata uang asing tertentu pada nilai tukar tertentu (harga kesepakatan) sampai tanggal tertentu ketika kontrak berakhir. Dalam kontrak derivatif ini, pembeli opsi mata uang tidak berkewajiban atau terikat untuk menggunakan haknya untuk membeli atau menjual mata uang tersebut. Currency Option | Meaning and 2 Types in Easy Language- Finance Cracker Currency Options and Its Benefits | Derivatives | Forex Management (businessmanagementideas.com)

81. © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-93 © 2013 Pearson Education 8-93 • The buyer of an option is termed the holder, while the seller of the option is referred to as the writer or grantor. • Every option has three different price elements: – The exercise or strike price – the exchange rate at which the foreign currency can be purchased (call) or sold (put) – The premium – the cost, price, or value of the option itself – The underlying or actual spot exchange rate in the market Foreign Currency Options

82. To obtain this right, currency option buyer pays an amount to currency option seller or writer which is called premium or price of the currency option. For the buyer of a currency option, the gains are unlimited and the losses are limited. For the writer of the currency option, the losses are unlimited and the gains are limited to the extent of the premium he gains. Currency Option | Meaning and 2 Types in Easy Language- Finance Cracker Currency Options and Its Benefits | Derivatives | Forex Management (businessmanagementideas.com)

83. Currency Options Contracts ▪ Premi harus cukup untuk risiko yang ditanggung bagi “writers”, namun dari sudut pandang pemegang (holder’s), harus layak dibayar. ▪ Jika opsi berisi ketentuan yang menyatakan bahwa opsi tersebut dapat dilaksanakan kapan saja sebelum berakhirnya kontrak, opsi tersebut disebut sebagai 'kontrak Amerika'. Jika hanya dapat dilakukan pada tanggal kadaluwarsa, itu disebut 'kontrak Eropa'. Currency Options and Its Benefits | Derivatives | Forex Management (businessmanagementideas.com)

84. © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 1-96 © 2013 Pearson Education 8-96 Foreign Currency Options • An option whose exercise price is the same as the spot price of the underlying currency is said to be at- the-money (ATM). • An option that would be profitable, excluding the cost of the premium, if exercised immediately is said to be in- the-money (ITM). • An option that would not be profitable, again excluding the cost of the premium, if exercised immediately is referred to as out-of-the money (OTM).

85. Currency Options Contracts Currency options contracts can be classified as calls or puts. ✓ A currency call option provides the right to buy a specific currency at a specific price (called the strike price or exercise price) within a specific period of time. It is used to hedge future payables. ✓ A currency put option provides the right to sell a specific currency at a specific price within a specific period of time. It is used to hedge future receivables. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

86. Call Vs Put Option BASIS FOR COMPARISON CALL OPTION PUT OPTION Meaning Call option grants right to the buyer, not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset by a particular date for the strike price. Put option grants the right to the buyer, not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset by a particular date at the strike price. What it allows? Buying of stock (FX) Selling of stock (FX) Relationship with stock market Direct Inverse Potential gain Unlimited Limited Investor looks for Price Rise Fall in prices Difference Between Call and Put Option (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

87. ▪ Saat Anda berinvestasi dalam call option, Anda selalu mengharapkan harga naik untuk menuai lebih banyak keuntungan, ▪ Sedangkan jika Anda memilih put option , Anda ingin harga turun karena hanya dengan begitu Anda akan dapat memperoleh keuntungan atau Anda akan menderita kerugian sebesar premi yang dibayarkan.

88. C5 - 102 • A currency call option grants the holder the right to buy a specific currency at a specific price (called the exercise or strike price) within a specific period of time. • A call option is ¤ in the money if spot rate > strike price, ¤ at the money if spot rate = strike price, ¤ out of the money if spot rate < strike price. Currency Call Options • A currency put option grants the holder the right to sell a specific currency at a specific price (the strike price) within a specific period of time. • A put option is ¤ in the money if spot rate < strike price, ¤ at the money if spot rate = strike price, ¤ out of the money if spot rate > strike price. Currency Put Options

89. Currency Call Options ▪ Call Option dapat dimanfaatkan jika seseorang ingin mengunci harga yang harus dibayarkan bagi suatu valuta di masa depan. ▪ Jika kurs spot dari suatu valuta naik melampaui strike price nya, pemilik Call Option dapat menggunakan haknya dengan membeli valuta pada strike price yang lebih rendah dari kurs spot. ▪ Strategi ini kurang lebih sama dengan strategi yang digunakan oleh pembeli kontrak futures, tetapi kontrak futures mewajibkan pelakunya melakukan sesuatu (yaitu, membeli atau menjual), sedangkan opsi valuta tidak mewajibkan pembelinya melakukan apapun. ▪ Pemilik Call Option yang telah jatuh tempo hanya merugi sebatas call premium (yaitu, harga pembelian opsi) yang mereka bayar pada awalnya.

90. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-104 Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – If Hans were to speculate in the options market, his viewpoint would determine what type of option to buy or sell – As a buyer of a call option, Hans purchases the August call on francs at a strike price of 58 ½ ($0.5850/Sfr) and a premium of 0.50 or $0.0050/Sfr – At spot rates below the strike price, Hans would not exercise his option because he could purchase francs cheaper on the spot market than via his call option

91. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-105 Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – Hans’ only loss would be limited to the cost of the option, or the premium ($0.0050/Sfr) – At all spot rates above the strike of 58 ½ Hans would exercise the option, paying only the strike price for each Swiss franc • If the franc were at 59 ½, Hans would exercise his options buying Swiss francs at 58 ½ instead of 59 ½

92. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-106 Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – Hans could then sell his Swiss francs on the spot market at 59 ½ for a profit Profit = Spot rate – (Strike price + Premium) = $0.595/Sfr – ($0.585/Sfr + $0.005/Sfr) = $.005/Sfr

93. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-107 Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – Hans could also wait to see if the Swiss franc appreciates more, this is the value to the holder of a call option – limited loss, unlimited upside – Hans’ break-even price can also be calculated by combining the premium cost of $0.005/Sfr with the cost of exercising the option, $0.585/Sfr • This matched the proceeds from exercising the option at a price of $0.590/Sfr

94. © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 7-108 Exhibit 7.3 Profit and Loss for the Buyer of a Call Option if spot rate > strike price if spot rate = strike price if spot rate < strike price

95. © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 7-109 Option Market Speculation • Writer of a call (see Exhibit 7.4): – What the holder, or buyer of an option loses, the writer gains – The maximum profit that the writer of the call option can make is limited to the premium – If the writer wrote the option “naked”, that is without owning the currency, the writer would now have to buy the currency at the spot and take the loss delivering at the strike price – The amount of such a loss is unlimited and increases as the underlying currency rises – Even if the writer already owns the currency, the writer will experience an opportunity loss

97. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-111 Profit = Premium – (Spot rate - Strike price) = $0.005/Sfr – ($0.595/Sfr + $0.585/Sfr) = - $0.005/Sfr Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – The payout on writing a call option would be

98. Currency Options and Its Benefits | Derivatives | Forex Management (businessmanagementideas.com)

99. Currency Options and Its Benefits | Derivatives | Forex Management (businessmanagementideas.com)

100. Currency Options Contracts ▪ Currency Call Option adalah kontrak yang memberikan hak untuk membeli suatu valuta tertentu pada kurs (harga) tertentu selama periode waktu tertentu. ▪ Exercise Price atau Strike Price adalah harga yang harus dibayarkan pemilik opsi pada saat ingin menggunakan haknya membeli valuta. ▪ Tiap Opsi memiliki tanggal jatuh tempo bulanan masing-masing. Financial Markets and Institutions, 11th Edition Jeff Madura

101. Suatu Currency Put Option Diklasifikasikan menjadi 3 macam, yaitu : ▪ In The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan lebih kecil dari strike price. ▪ At The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan sama dengan strike price. ▪ Out Of Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan lebih tinggi dari strike price. ▪ Bagi valuta dan tanggal jatuh tempo tertentu, suatu In The Money Put Option akan memerlukan Premium yang lebih tinggi daripada opsi At The Money atau Out Of Money.

102. Suatu Currency Call Option Diklasifikasikan menjadi 3 macam, yaitu : • In The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan melampaui (lebih besar) dari strike price. • At The Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan sama dengan strike price. • Out Of Money adalah istilah dimana kurs berjalan lebih rendah dari strike price. • Bagi valuta dan tanggal jatuh tempo tertentu, suatu In The Money Call Option akan memerlukan Premium yang lebih tinggi daripada opsi At The Money atau Out Of Money.

103. Currency Put Option

104. Currency Put Option • Currency Put Option adalah kontrak yang memberikan hak untuk menjual suatu valuta tertentu pada kurs tertentu/harga tertentu (strike price) selama periode waktu tertentu. • Pemilik Currency Put Option diberikan hak untuk menjual suatu valuta dengan harga tertentu (strike price) sepanjang periode waktu tertentu. • Sama seperti call option, pemilik put option tidak diwajibkan untuk menggunakan hak opsinya. Jadi, kerugian potensial maksimum bagi pemilik put option adalah sebesar premium yang dibayarkan pada saat membeli opsi.

105. © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 7-121 Option Market Speculation • Buyer of a Put (see Exhibit 7.5): – The basic terms of this example are similar to those just illustrated with the call – The buyer of a put option, however, wants to be able to sell the underlying currency at the exercise price when the market price of that currency drops (not rises as in the case of the call option) – If the spot price drops to $0.575/SF, the buyer of the put will deliver francs to the writer and receive $0.585/SF – At any exchange rate above the strike price of 58.5, the buyer of the put would not exercise the option, and would lose only the $0.05/SF premium – The buyer of a put (like the buyer of the call) can never lose more than the premium paid up front

107. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-123 Profit = Strike price – (Spot rate + Premium) = $0.585/Sfr – ($0.575/Sfr + $0.005/Sfr) = $0.005/Sfr Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – The payout on buying a put option would be

108. © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 7-124 Option Market Speculation • Seller (writer) of a put (see Exhibit 7.6): – In this case, if the spot price of francs drops below 58.5 cents per franc, the option will be exercised – Below a price of 58.5 cents per franc, the writer will lose more than the premium received from writing the option (falling below break- even) – If the spot price is above $0.585/SF, the option will not be exercised and the option writer will pocket the entire premium

110. © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8-126 Profit = Premium – (Strike price - Spot rate) = $0.005/Sfr – ($0.585/Sfr + $0.575/Sfr) = - $0.005/Sfr Foreign Currency Speculation • Speculating in the options market – The payout on writing a put option would be

111. Currency Put Option adalah kontrak antara dua pihak di mana pembeli opsi mendapatkan hak untuk menjual mata uang yang mendasarinya pada harga yang telah ditentukan (Strike Price) dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Untuk membeli opsi put yang tepat, pembeli akan membayar sejumlah penjual opsi put yang disebut premium. Pembeli opsi put akan mendapat untung jika harga aset dasar akan turun. Jika pada atau sebelum tanggal kedaluwarsa, harga mata uang yang mendasarinya bergerak di atas harga kesepakatan, kerugian maksimum yang akan ditanggung pembeli opsi put adalah jumlah premium.

112. Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Premium Put Option • Kurs Spot berjalan relatif terhadap Strike Price Semakin rendah kurs spot berjalan relatif terhadap strike price, semakin berharga put option, karena semakin besar kemungkinan put option digunakan.

113. Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Premium Put Option • Lamanya Waktu Sebelum Tanggal Jatuh Tempo Yang mempengaruhi premium put option adalah lamanya waktu hingga tanggal jatuh tempo sama seperti call option, semakin panjang waktu jatuh tempo, semakin besar premiumnya. Periode yang lebih panjang menciptakan probabilitas gejolak valuta yang lebih besar dan semakin besar kemungkinan opsi akan digunakan. Hubungan ini dapat diuji dengan menilai kuotasi premium put option bagi suatu valuta tertentu dengan tanggal jatuh tempo yang berbeda-beda.

114. Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Premium Put Option • Variabilitas Valuta Semakin besar variabilitas valuta, semakin besar premium put option, yang sekali lagi mencerminkan yang akan digunakan.

115. Currency Swap

116. Currency Swap Currency Swap atau sering disebut Swap adalah suatu transaksi / kontrak untuk membeli atau menjual valuta asing lawan valuta (asing) lainnya pada tanggal valuta tertentu sekaligus dengan perjanjian untuk menjual atau membeli kembali pada tanggal valuta berbeda di masa yang akan datang, dengan harga yang ditentukan pada tanggal kontrak. Kedua transaksi tersebut dilaksanakan sekaligus dan dengan counterparty (pihak) yang sama.

117. Jangka Waktu & Tujuan ▪ Jangka WaktuTransaksi swap dapat dilakukan untuk jangka waktu 1 minggu sampai dengan 1 tahun. ▪ Tujuan transaksi swap Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan akan mata uang lokal sekaligus pembayaran hutang dalam mata uang asing bagi anda yang menerima pinjaman dalam mata uang asing dengan melakukan transaksi swap Sell/buy, yaitu menjual USD lawan Rupiah pada valuta spot (pada saat menerima pinjaman dalam mata uang asing / USD) dan membeli kembali USD lawan Rupiah pada valuta di masa yang akan datang (pada saat pelunasan pinjaman dalam mata uang asing/USD).

118. Mekanisme transaksi swap digambarkan pada diagram di bawah ini:

119. Add a footer 136 Zero-Sum Game - Meaning, Examples, How does it Work? (wallstreetmojo.com) Definisi zero-sum game menggambarkan situasi di mana keuntungan yang diperoleh satu pihak sama dengan kerugian yang dialami oleh pihak lain.

120. Add a footer 137 Zero-Sum Game - Meaning, Examples, How does it Work? (wallstreetmojo.com) Definisi zero-sum game menggamba rkan situasi di mana keuntungan yang diperoleh satu pihak sama dengan kerugian yang dialami oleh pihak lain.

121. 139

122. “Sejarah Mata Uang Beriringan dg Pasang Surut Peradaban Umat Manusia”

123. “Sejarah Mata Uang Beriringan Pasang Surut Sejarah Peradaban Umat Manusia”

124. Barter trade Commodity money Symbolic money Credit money Credit clearing The key to understanding money lies in being able to distinguish between its mere forms on the one hand and its true essence on the other. We often hear that money evolved from gold and silver coin, to paper money, to “checkbook money.” But that does not really tell the story. Such a progression confuses money’s forms with its essences. What we really need to know is the value basis of money in each of its historical manifestations. Paper is not the essence of paper money, but only the carrier of information… …For now, let us just say that the important question to be answered with regard to any piece of paper currency is “what does the paper represent?” Not all paper is created equal.

125. Barter: 6000 BC Gold and the Oldest Civilizations: 5000 BC Commodity Money: 1000 BC Bimetallism: Romawi, Persia, Islamic Civilization Before 1875 Classical Gold Standard: 1875–1914 Interwar Period: WW 1, 1914 – 1918. WW 2, 1939 – 1945 1915–1944 Bretton Woods System: 1945–1971 FERR: The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime 1971–Present The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 1 2 3 4 8 7 6 5 CENTER OF STUDIES 3B ECONOMICS

126. Murray Newton Rothbard; What Has Government Done to Our Money? • Ketika kita menatap masa depan, prediksi terhadap dolar dan sistem moneter internasional sangat buram…hingga dan kecuali jika kita kembali kepada standar emas. • Nasib sistem keuangan internasional akan terombang-ambing antara nilai tukar tetap atau nilai tukar fluktuatif, yang masing- masing menjanjikan persoalan tanpa solusi, yang sama-sama berfungsi secara buruk, dan akhirnya akan mengalami disintegrasi.

127. “Tugas mengkombinasikan kemakmuran dengan kestabilan harga sekarang ini, merupakan masalah utama yang tidak terpecahkan dalam kinerja perekonomian secara agregat. (kita) harus menemukan kesesuaian yang memuaskan sehingga menghasilkan pertumbuhan dan tingkat pengangguran yang dapat kita banggakan di satu sisi, dan kinerja harga yang dapat kita terima di lain sisi” By Arthur M. Okun; The Political Economy of Prosperity.

128. Free Powerpoint Templates Page 146 Fifth, a new global reserve system could be created, one that no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single major reserve currency. The dollar has proved not to be a stable store of value, which is a requisite for a stable reserve currency. Nonetheless, motivated in part by needs for self-insurance against volatility in commodity markets and capital flows, many developing countries accumulated vast amounts of such reserves during the 2000s. Hence, a new system needs to be developed. That system should allow for better pooling of reserves at the regional and international levels; it must not be based on a single currency or even multiple national currencies but, instead, should permit the emission of international liquidity (such as SDRs) to create a more stable global financial system. Such emissions of international liquidity could also underpin the financing of investment in long-term sustainable development, as suggested above.

129. Free Powerpoint Templates Page 147

130. Barter: 6000 BC 1.Suku Mesopotamia kemungkinan merupakan titik awal sistem barter pada 6000 SM. Fenisia melihat prosesnya, dan mereka mengadopsinya dalam masyarakat mereka. Orang-orang kuno ini memanfaatkan sistem barter untuk mendapatkan makanan, senjata, dan rempah-rempah yang mereka butuhkan. Karena nilai garam yang besar, tentara Romawi menukar jasa mereka dengan kekaisaran dengan imbalan garam. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 1

131. Gold and the Oldest Civilizations: 5000 BC 1.Before gold was used as coinage, its value was recognized. Gold jewelry is buried in the Tomb of Djer, king of the First Egyptian Dynasty. Gold's beauty, luster, and malleability made it perfect for many uses. In fact, the Egyptians became masters in the art of beating gold into leaf. 2.One of the oldest civilizations known to man, the Sumerians of Mesopotamia, who lived in what is modern-day Iran and Iraq, first used gold as sacred, ornamental, and decorative instruments in the fifth millennium B.C. 3.Around the same period, the early Egyptians — the richest gold-producing civilization of the ancient world — began the art of gold refining. Like the Sumerians, the Egyptians used gold primarily for personal adornment, rather than for monetary purposes, although the kings of the fourth to sixth dynasties (c. 2700 - 2270 B.C.) did issue some gold coins. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 2

132. Commodity Money: 1000 BC 1.In 600 B.C., Lydia's King Alyattes minted the first official currency. The coins were made from electrum, a mixture of silver and gold that occurs naturally, and the coins were stamped with pictures that acted as . 2.The first large-scale, private issuance of pure gold coins was under King Croesus (560-546 B.C.), the ruler of ancient Lydia, modern-day western Turkey. denominations Stamped with his royal emblem of the facing heads of a lion and a bull, these first known coins eventually became the standard of exchange for worldwide trade and commerce. Following the collapse of the Lydian Empire in 546 B.C., the Persians gained control of Asia's richest gold sources, which gave it far greater power in the world. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 3

133. Bimetallism: Before 1875 1.Romawi; Gold was first used for money in 643 BC. In 30 BC, the Roman Emperor Augustus set the price of gold at 45 coins to the pound. Later, Emperor Augustus (31 B.C. - A.D. 14) was the first Roman to establish a golden currency, known as the aureus, which helped spur the dynamic expansion of the Roman economy. 2.Persia; The standard gold coin of the Persian Empire was the daric, named after Darius the Great (521 - 486 B.C.). Alexander the Great of Macedonia (336 B.C. - 323 B.C.) subsequently established a rival coinage system that served as one of the important factors in his conquest of Persia and the movement of gold into Europe. 3.Nabi Muhammad di Madinah, Khilafah Umayyah, Abbasiyah, Utsmani: 622 M – 1924 M. 4.Eropa dan AS: 5.England adopted a de facto gold standard in 1717 after the master of the mint, Sir Isaac Newton, overvalued the guinea in terms of silver, and formally adopted the gold standard in 1819. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 4

134. Classical Gold Standard: 1875–1914 1.In 1861, Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase printed the first U.S. paper currency. The Gold Standard Act of 1900 established gold as the only metal for redeeming paper currency. It set the value of gold at $20.67 an ounce. 2.In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war. 3.The United States, though formally on a bimetallic (gold and silver) standard, switched to gold de facto in 1834 and de jure in 1900 when Congress passed the Gold Standard Act. In 1834, the United States fixed the price of gold at $20.67 per ounce, where it remained until 1933. Other major countries joined the gold standard in the 1870s. 4.Over the 179 years the United States was on some form of a gold or metallic standard (1792-1971), the economy grew an average of 3.9% each year. Since 1971, under a fiat money standard not backed by gold in any way, economic growth has averaged 2.8% per year. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 5

136. © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 154 of 55 Fraction of countries by type of regime (cumulative %) Exchange Rates Regimes of the World, 1870–2010 The shaded regions show the fraction of countries on each type of regime by year, and they add up to 100%. From 1870 to 1913, the gold standard became the dominant regime. During World War I (1914–1918), most countries suspended the gold standard, and resumptions in the late 1920s were brief. After further suspensions in World War II (1939– 1945), most countries were fixed against the U.S. dollar (the pound, franc, and mark blocs were indirectly pegged to the dollar). Starting in the 1970s, more countries opted to float. In 1999 the euro replaced the franc and the mark as the base currency for many pegs. © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

137. Mekanisme Gold Standard ✓ AS; $20,67/Ons emas (nilai tukar sebelum perang dunia 1) ✓ Inggris; £4,247/Ons emas Prasyarat, Kedua mata uang bebas ditukar dg emas: $20,67/𝑂𝑛𝑠 £4,247/𝑂𝑛𝑠 = $4,866/£

138. The Price-Specie- Flow Mechanism

141. Interwar Period: 1915–1944 1.When World War I broke out, the United States and European countries suspended the gold standard so they could print enough money to pay for their military involvement. 2.On March 6, 1933, the newly-elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt closed the banks in response to a run on the gold reserves at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 3.On April 20, FDR ordered Americans to turn in their gold in exchange for dollars to prohibit the hoarding of gold and the redemption of gold by other countries. 4.On January 30, 1934, the Gold Reserve Act prohibited the private ownership of gold except under license. It allowed the government to pay its debts in dollars, not gold, and authorized FDR to increase the price of gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce (which consequently devalued the dollar). The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 6

142. Bretton Woods System: 1945–1971 1.The Bretton Woods Agreement established a U.S. dollar based international monetary system and created two new institutions the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. 2.Countries pegged their currencies to the dollar at specified parities, which in turn was convertible into gold at the official rate of $35/oz. However this only applied to dollars held by central banks and governments and not by private citizens. 3.Other countries had to intervene to fix their exchange rates against the dollar. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 7

143. Bretton Woods System https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/index/gold/bretton-woods/ The French government of Charles De Gaulle led demands from many nations for the US to exchange dollars for physical gold. The Bretton Wood system began to truly collapse in 1971, when President Richard Nixon’s administration was forced to devalue the US dollar to $38 to an ounce of gold. In 1973, a further 10% devaluation was announced. Finally, in 1976, the Jamaica Accord formally ended the agreement, and completed the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. By 1980, all major currencies were left with on a floating exchange rate international currency market – the fiat monetary system used to this day.

144. FERR: The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime 1971–Present 1.Persistent U.S. balance-of-payments deficits steadily reduced U.S. gold reserves, however, reducing confidence in the ability of the United States to redeem its currency in gold. Finally, on August 15, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon announced that the United States would no longer redeem currency for gold. 2.Most currencies were allowed to float to levels determined by market forces as of March 1973. 3.Since March 1973, exchange rates have become much more volatile and less predictable than they were during the “fixed” period. The Origin of Money & International Monetary System 8

145. Bimetallism: Romawi, Persia, Khilafah Islamiyah. Nilai tukar mata uang relatif tetap, mengikuti stabilitas nilai emas & perak. Classical Gold Standard: Nilai tukar mata uang relatif tetap, mengikuti stabilitas nilai emas. Bretton Woods System: Nilai tukar mata uang relatif tetap ketika USD masih setimbang dg Cad. Emas. the Flexible Exchange Rate Regime. Nilai tukar mata uang bergerak volatile dg system nilai tukar berbeda-beda. Before 1875 1875 s.d 1914 1945 s.d 1972 1971 - Present 1 2 3 4

146. 165

147. The International Monetary System

148. Foreign Exchange & Exchange Rate System [VALAS & SISTEM NILAI TUKAR]

149. International Monetary System International Monetary System Rules, Conventions, and Supporting Institutions International payments, Cross- border investment Exchange rates among currencies International monetary systems are sets of internationally agreed rules, conventions, and supporting institutions, that facilitate international payments, cross-border investment, and exchange rates among currencies are determined.

150. https://www.thebalance.com/how-do-exchange-rates-work-3306084

151. Exchange rate regimes: Managed float | Policonomics Summary Exchange rates can be understood as the price of one currency in terms of another currency. However, just like for goods and services, we must take into account what determines that price, since governments can influence it, and even fix it. Exchange rate regimes (or systems) are the frame under which that price is determined. From a purely floating exchange rate, to a central bank determined fixed exchange rate, this Learning Path explains the basics of each of these regimes. We start by learning about the concept itself, and continue with each regime type, starting with the ones with highest monetary policy independence, and moving to less independent regimes. 1 2

152. © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 172 of 55 A Spectrum of Exchange Rate Regimes: The chart shows a recent classification of exchange rate regimes around the world. © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America International Ecoomics, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

153. © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 173 of 55 © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America International Ecoomics, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

154. Exchange Rate Arrangements as of 2005 Source: IMF, www.imf.org, April 27, 2006

155. Summary of the Monetary System INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Published by McGraw-Hill Education, New York. J. Michael Geringer, Michael S. Minor, Jeanne M. McNett

156. Pergeraka Nilai Tukar Mengambang Terkendali Floating Exchange Rate: Batas atas dan bawah dihapus Fix Exchange Rate: Nilai tukar Rp terhadap US$ ditetapkan dg nominal yg tetap Permainan Spekulasi terhadap nilai tukar dilakukan dg jalan meniupkan rumor (baik-buruk) &/ secara langsung melakukan transaksi valas uk mempengaruhi besaran uang yg beredar

157. Requirements of a good international monetary system 1. Adjustment: a good system must be able to adjust imbalances in the balance of payments quickly and at a relatively lower cost; 2. Stability and Confidence: the system must be able to keep the exchange rates relatively fixed and people must have confidence in the stability of the system; 3. Liquidity: the system must be able to provide enough reserve assets for a nation to correct its balance of payments deficits without making the nation run into deflation or inflation. International Monetary System, Suresh Thengumpallil

158. Gresham's law is an economic principle that states: "if coins containing metal of different value have the same value as legal tender, the coins composed of the cheaper metal will be used for payment, while those made of more expensive metal will be hoarded or exported and thus tend to disappear from circulation.” It is commonly stated as: "Bad” (abundant) money drives out “Good” (scarce) money”

159. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2014/07/05/not-floating-but-flailing

162. Pergerakan Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi IHK, 1981 - 1999 Sumber: Bank Indonesia Uma Ramakrhisnan dan Athanasios Vamvakidis, Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia, IMF Working Paper; 2002, hal. 4-5. http://vuir.vu.edu.au/16001/1/SYURKANI_3714387_Revised_Thesis_FINAL_acrobat_version.pdf

163. Tingkat Inflasi 14 Negara Maju Sumber: Michael D. Bordo, Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective

164. Stabilitas Nilai Tukar Mata Uang 14 Negara Maju Sumber: Michael D. Bordo, Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective

165. © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 185 of 55 Percent change in the U.S. dollar value of one unit of domestic currency Currency Crashes The chart shows that exchange rate crises are common events. Note: An exchange rate crisis is defined here as an event in which a currency loses more than 30% of its value in U.S. dollar terms over one year, having changed by less than 20% each of the previous two years. There were currency crises according to this definition in 2001 also in Lesotho, Swaziland and Namibia, but these countries are pegged (the latter) to or in a monetary union with South Africa, and only this one crisis is shown. © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America International Ecoomics, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

166. Sistem Nilai Tukar / Kelebihan-Kekurangan Keunggulan Kelemahan Sistem nilai tukar tetap 1. Kegiatan spekulasi di pasar uang semakin sempit. 2. Intervensi aktif pemerintah dalam mengatur nilai tukar sehingga tetap stabil. 3. Pemerintah memegang peranan penuh dalam pengawasan transaksi devisa. 4. Kepastian nilai tukar, sehingga perencanaan produksi sesuai dengan hasilnya. 1. Cadangan devisa harus besar, untuk menyerap kelebihan dan kekurangan di pasar valas. 2. Kurang fleksibel terhadap perubahan global. 3. Penetapan kurs yang terlalu rendah atau terlalu tinggi akan mempengaruhi pasar ekspor impor 4. Kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yg restriktif (membatasi) dapat membebani bagi Negara yg ingin mengambil kebijakan untuk meringankan permasalahan pengangguran atau pertumbuhan ekonomi yg lambat. 5. Nilai tukar yg tercermin tidak sesuai dengan indikator fundamental ekonomi. Sistem nilai tukar Mengambang Bebas 1. Cadangan devisa relatif lebih aman. 2. Persaingan pasar ekspor-impor sesuai dengan mekanisme pasar. 3. Kondisi ekonomi negara lain tidak akan berpengaruh besar terhadap kondisi ekonomi dalam negeri. 4. Masalah neraca pembayaran dapat diminimalisir. 5. Tidak ada batasan valas. 6. Equilibrium pasar uang. 1. Praktik spekulasi semakin bebas. 2. Penerapan sistem ini terbatas pada negara yang sistim perekonomiannya mapan, masih kurang teapt untuk negara berkembang. 3. Tidak adanya intervensi pemerintah untuk menjaga harga. Sistem nilai tukar Mengambang Terkendali 1. Mampu menjaga stabilitas moneter dengan lebih baik dan neraca pembayaran suatu negara. 2. Adanya aktifitas MD/MS dalam pasar valuta berdasarkan kurs indikasi akan mampu menstabilkan nilai tukar dengan lebih baik sesuai dengan kondisi ekonomi yang terjadi. 3. Devisa yang diperlukan tidak sebesar pada nilai tukar tetap. 4. Mampu memadukan sistem tetap dan mengambang. 1. Devisa harus selalu tersedia dan siap diguankan sewaktu- waktu. 2. Persaingan yang ketat antara pemerintah dan spekualan dalam memprediksi dan menetapkan kurs. 3. Tidak selamanya mampu mengatasi neraca pembayaran. 4. Selisih kurs yang terjadi dalam pasar valuta akan mengurangi devisa karena memakai devisa untuk menutupi selisihnya. Dilema 3 Sistem Nilai Tukar Berbasis Fiat Money

167. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS#0

168. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FX_IDC%3AUSDCNY

169. https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/inves tor/charts/an-annotated-history- of-the-usdcny-exchange-rate/

170. Each corner of the triangle represents a viable policy choice. The labels on the two adjacent edges of the triangle are the goals that can be attained; the label on the opposite edge is the goal that has to be sacrificed. Trade gains and an absence of (or political indifference to) stability costs help explain how the gold standard came into being before 1914 (top corner). Subsequently, reduced trade gains and higher actual (or politically relevant) stability costs help explain the ultimate demise of the gold standard in the 1920s and 1930s. Countries sought new solutions to the trilemma to achieve policy autonomy, either by floating (bottom right corner) or by adopting capital controls (bottom left corner). Solutions to the Trilemma Before and After World War I. FIAT MONEY © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America International Ecoomics, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor It is a trilemma rather than a dilemma because the available options are three: 1 and 2, 1 and 3, or 2 and 3.

171. In the 1960s, the Bretton Woods system became unsustainable because capital mobility could not be contained. Thus, countries could no longer have fixed rates and monetary autonomy (bottom left corner). In the advanced countries, the trilemma was resolved by a shift to floating rates, which preserved autonomy and allowed for the present era of capital mobility (bottom right corner). The main exception was the currency union of the Eurozone. In developing countries and emerging markets, the “fear of floating” was stronger; when capital markets were opened, monetary policy autonomy was more often sacrificed and fixed exchange rates were maintained (top corner). Solutions to the Trilemma Since World War II © 2014, 2008, 2012 by Worth Publishers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America International Ecoomics, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor

172. The Monetary Trilemma for Open Economies Paul R Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc J Melitz. International Economics; Theory & Policy. PEARSON; USA, 2018.

177. US$ Apresi asi US$ Depres iasi Suku Bunga Turun Harga Brg Impor Turun Harga Brg Ekspor Naik Harga Brg Impor Naik Harga Brg Ekspor Turun HARGA BRG EKSPOR TURUN - Negatif. - Dunia usaha orientasi ekspor lesu / bangkrut - Perolehan Devisa Turun - Nilai tukar Rp terancam depresiasi lebih dalam - Positif. - Ekspor meningkat, jika masih memberikan keuntungan, perolehan devisa naik Rp Depres iasi Rp Apresi asi HARGA BRG EKSPOR NAIK - Negatif. - Dunia usaha orientasi ekspor sulit bersaing (harga brg menjadi lebih mahal) - Perolehan Devisa Turun - Positif. - Ekspor meningkat, jika harga masih mampu bersaing, Perolehan devisa bisa naik HARGA BRG IMPOR NAIK - Negatif. - Dunia usaha (bahan baku- mesin dr luar negeri) sulit berkembang - Positif. - Konsumsi Brg (konsumtif) Impor Turun (devisa terjaga) - Dunia usaha domestik meningkat HARGA BRG IMPOR TURUN - Negatif. - Kosumsi brg (konsumtif & bahan baku, modal) impor meningkat. - Dunia usaha domestik lesu - Kebutuhan devisa meningkat - Positif. - Dunia usaha (bahan baku-mesin asing) lebih mudah berkembang Suku Bunga Naik SUKU BUNGA NAIK - Negatif. - Cost of capital naik, Dunia usaha sulit berkembang - Positif. - Rupiah terhindar depresiasi lebih dalam? - Capital outflow terjaga? SUKU BUNGA TURUN - Negatif. - Terjadi capital outflow - Positif. - Cost of Capital (domestik) turun, Dunia usaha lebih mudah berkembang

178. Add a footer 199 Kenapa Dollar $ Kuasai Dunia Politik & Militer Bretton Woods Agreement, GDP; Supply & Demand Mata Uang Dollar $ • $ digunakan AS uk support Politik & Militer, dan Politik – Militer digunakan uk menjaga kekuatan $ • Kesepakatan BWA menjadikan $ mata uang internasional, GDP AS membentuk permintaan $ • $ Dicetak & diterbitkan oleh the FED

179. X X X SELEKTIF PROFIT SHARING DARI MODAL SENDIRI SELEKTIF PROFIT SHARING DARI MODAL SENDIRI SELEKTIF MATA UANG BERBASIS EMAS & PERAK, SERTA TIDAK RIBAWI SPEKULASI & MENIMBUN DILARANG LEMBAGA KEUANGAN TDK MENCARI PROFIT DARI SELISIH BUNGA KREDIT & SIMPANAN Larangan menimbun, menipu timbangan, menguasai kepemilikan umum, Menyewakan tanah pertanian, Korupsi Kepala Daerah, Anggota DPR/D, Hakim, Petinggi Partai

180. Mata Uang Rupiah Tidak Memiliki Nilai Intrinsik Rp = Fiat Money Redenominasi & GETAR Sektor Riil Pangan & Energi Tdk Mandiri Tdk ada Modal & Teknologi Tarif & Harga pasar Permintaan ekspor komoditas (karet, Minyak Sawit, Batubara) dari Eropa & China tergerus Krisis Utang Uni Eropa Hilirisasi Industri (deregulasi, Tax Holiday) Intermediasi Perbankan Lemah Risiko Kredit Macet Kredit Lunak (KUR) Dominasi USD dl EksIm Fluktuasi Dollar yg tinggi Local Currency Settlement Sektor Non Riil Perbankkan UU Membolehkan Kepemilikan Saham Asing 100% Limitation Pasar Modal Amblas (IHSG 4300, awal 5000 lebih) Dominasi Asing 60-65% Asing = 1.969,51 Lokal = 1.065,94 Mengajak Rakyat Aktif di Psr. Modal Pasar Valas Volatile Sistem Devisa Bebas Time Holding Limitation of transactions US$25ribu Bilateral currency Swap Agreement Meningkatkan cad. devisa Pasar SBN Lesu Yield (Imbal hasil) Naikkan Imbal Hasil

181. FIAT MONEY, FRACTIONAL RESERVE, INTEREST, Motif Spekulasi PERUSAHAAN MASYARAKAT NILAI TUKAR MATA UANG DOMESTIK TURUN HARGA BARANG IMPOR (BAHAN BAKU, MESIN) NAIK TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA NAIK MENYEBABKAN COST OF CAPITAL SEMAKIN BESAR BIAYA PRODUKSI NAIK PRODUSEN MENAIKKAN HARGA BARANG SEMAKIN MENAMBAH BEBAN KEUANGAN PERUSAHAAN TINGKAT KONSUMSI TURUN TUNTUTAN KENAIKAN UPAH & PENDAPATAN KEPADA PERUSAHAAN PRODUSEN MENURUNKAN PRODUKSI / MENEKAN BIAYA PRODUKSI (PHK) PENGANGGURAN BERTAMBAH TINGKAT KONSUMSI SEMAKIN TURUN KEMISKI NAN & GEJOLAK SOSIAL MEMPERBESAR JUB (M1,M2,M3) INFLASI BANK SENTRAL KENAIKAN HARGA MIGAS KEPADA PEMERINTAH MENAMBAH BEBAN APBN DEFISIT / KEBIJAKAN FISKAL MENCETAK UANG, MANAMBAH UTANG PERUSAHAAN BANGKRUT PRIVATISASI, MENAIKKAN PAJAK

182. LOOSE MONEY POLICY BEBAN BUNGA Bank Sentral SEMAKIN BESAR JUB SEMAKIN BESAR INFLASI MENGATASI KELESUAN PEREKONOMIAN PARADIGMA KAPITALISME SUKU BUNGA TURUN SEKTOR RIILTERSENDAT DEFISIT MODAL DALAM NEGERI CAPITAL FLIGHT SUKU BUNGA LUAR NEGERI LEBIH MENJANJIKAN TRANSAKSI SPEKULATIF DI PASAR MODAL&UANG COST OF CAPITAL TURUN SEKTOR RIIL RELATIF BERJALAN DEFLASI BANK MENGUCURKAN DANA RTP LESS PROFIT Paradigma Kapitalisme: RTP Enggan Berproduksi RESESI SEKTOR RIIL TERHAMBAT TMP -RTP = Rumah Tangga Produksi -TMP = Tight Money Policy Neraca Pembayaran Tertekan BANK SENTRAL TIGHT MONEY POLICY BEBAN BUNGA Bank Sentral SeMAKIN BESAR DIKEMUDIAN HARI JUB SEMAKIN BESAR INFLASI MENJAGA KESTABILAN HARGA SUKU BUNGA NAIK COST OF CAPITAL NAIK SEKTOR RIIL TERHAMBAT HARGA BARANG & PENGANGGURAN NAIK, & KONSUMSI TURUN

183. 3 Channels Imperialisme Fiat Money Imperialisme Fiat Money ($) Seigniorage Foreign Exchange Reserve Export - Import

184. INFLASI UANG Jumlah Uang Supply Bentuk Mata Uang Fiat Money Fungsi Uang, Kejar Seigniorage, Spekulatif, FRR, Interest, Credit Card Mata uang Asing; Contoh Dollar AS Gold & Silver Demand Kepercayaan Rakyat Nilai Intrinsik? Undang-Undang Power of Politics Perhiasan & King Metal Kekayaan SDA BARANG Jumlah Barang Jumlah Produksi Tenaga Kerja, Ketersediaan Modal, Bahan baku, Teknologi, Land Luas Wilayah, Etos Kerja, Kebiasaan Saving & Investment, Hub. Tenaga Kerja dg Dunia Usaha Jumlah Konsumsi Populasi, Ekspor Impor Kebiasaan Spending, Saving, Investasi CENTER OF STUDIES 3B ECONOMICS

185. Cetak Uang Sebanyak Mungkin? M.V = T. P Ketika uang dicetak sangat banyak (M↑), dan kemudian digunakan uk membangun infrastruktur (T↑), apakah tidak akan menimbulkan Inflasi (P↑)? ➢ Betul bahwa ketika jumlah uang (M) ditingkatkan bersamaan dengan meningkatnya jumlah produksi barang (Q) relatif tidak akan menaikkan harga. Dikarenakan kesetimbangan yg terbentuk antara M dan Q (T). ➢ Namun, terdapat Time Lag antara kenaikan M dengan Q. M dapat ditingkatkan dengan sangat cepat, Adapun Q relatif lebih banyak memakan waktu. ➢ Lebih jauh, spending M uk infrastruktur berbeda dg barang sembako. Spending M uk infrasturktur tidak serta merta akan mendorong supply sembako. Berlimpahnya uang dari spending M di infrastruktur, akan menyebabkan demand sembako lebih cepat meningkat. Kenaikan harga sembako biasanya akan direspon kenaikan harga barang lainnya.

186. M.V = T. P Ketika uang dicetak sangat banyak (M↑), dan kemudian digunakan uk membangun infrastruktur (T↑), apakah tidak akan menimbulkan Inflasi (P↑)? ➢ Ketika M ditingkatkan oleh pemerintah dg mencetak uang, tentu saja para pelaku ekonomi mengetahui kebijakan ini. Di titik ini, akan terbentuk ekspektasi inflasi masyarakat (makhluk rasional). Apakah bersikap netral, atau justru akan mengantisipasinya (adaptif) dengan melepas uang dan mengkonversinya dalam bentuk benda atau komoditas lain. ➢ Jika yg terbentuk adalah sikap antisipatif (contoh menjelang dan saat Ramadhan), maka akan meningkatkan laju edar uang (V) di satu sisi, di sisi lain Q relatif berjalan lambat, maka tentu saja hal itu akan menyebabkan kenaikan harga alias inflasi. Cetak Uang Sebanyak Mungkin?

187. M.V = T. P Ketika uang dicetak sangat banyak (M↑), dan kemudian digunakan uk membangun infrastruktur (T↑), apakah tidak akan menimbulkan Inflasi (P↑)? ➢ Di sektor non riil, jumlah M yang meningkat tajam biasanya menjadi indikator dan akan mendorong tingkat suku bunga acuan akan turun yg tentu saja kemudian akan mendorong ke bawah suku bunga simpanan dan pinjaman. ➢ Ketika itu yg terjadi, maka berpotensi terjadi capital flight. ➢ Capital flight menyebabkan mata uang domestik (Rp) tertekan alias anjlok (depresiasi). ➢ Depresiasi akan mengatrol kenaikan harga produk- produk impor. Cetak Uang Sebanyak Mungkin?

188. INFLASI IHK INFLASI INTI INFLASI NON INTI Eksternal Output Gap Ekspektasi Volatile Food Price Administered Price Inflasi Inersia Nilai Tukar INFLASI DUNIA Penawaran Permintaan Impor Bahan Baku Produksi Investasi Ekspor Konsumsi KONDISI SEKTOR RIIL KONDISI LEMBAGA KEUANGAN Supply Demand Valas 1. Perilaku Spekulasi 2. Menjaga Kinerja Ekspor Impor 3. Menjaga Arus Investasi Populasi Permintaan Kebijakan Pemerintah Penawaran Produksi Makanan Impor Makanan Supply Shocks

189. Investment Vs Speculation NO BASIS FOR COMPARISON INVESTMENT SPECULATION 1 Meaning The purchase of an asset with the hope of getting returns is called investment. Speculation is an act of conducting a risky financial transaction, in the hope of substantial profit. 2 Basis for decision Fundamental factors, i.e. performance of the company. Hearsay, technical charts and market psychology. 3 Time horizon Longer term Short term 4 Risk involved Moderate risk High risk 5 Intent to profit Changes in value Changes in prices 6 Expected rate of return Modest rate of return High rate of return 7 Funds An investor uses his own funds. A speculator uses borrowed funds. 8 Income Stable Uncertain and Erratic 9 Behavior of participants Conservative and Cautious Daring and Careless Difference Between Investment and Speculation (with Comparison Chart) - Key Differences

190. Membedakan Transaksi Riil & Spekulatif √ Prospek × Objek × Mekanisme 1 2 3

191. KEVIN PHILLIPS, BAD MONEY, Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism, PE N G U I N B O O K S, Page. xxv

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