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Remembering: MIPIM Asia 2009• Growing sense of optimism – Asia weathered the storm – Capital is flowing in• Chief concerns: – US double dip recession – Housing bubble in China
Remembering: MIPIM Asia 2010• Strong sense of optimism• China is leading the way• Great diversity of opportunities• Chief concerns – Housing bubble in China – Limited availability of quality assets
2010 optimism was justified How is your business activity this quarter compared to same quarter last year?60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% Better Same Worse
Optimism in the data Europe United States AsiaPac Company Still Buying? Company Still Buying? Company Still Buying?Unibail- Rodam co Blackstone Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley Tishm an Speyer National Pension Service (NPS) Avestus Capital Partners Lehm an Brothers Holdings Inc Prudential Goldm an Sachs** Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi Estate IVG Im m obilien GE Capital CapitaLand Lim ited Metrovacesa Goldm an Sachs Wheelock & Co Aviva PLC Beacon Capital Partners Sino Land Com pany Lim ited -Aberdeen Property Investors Broadway Partners LaSalle Investm ent Managem ent Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA Brookfield Asset Managem ent Macquarie Glob Prop Advs (MGPA) Pearl Group Prudential RE Investors China Vanke Co Ltd Electra Ltd BlackRock DB RREEF ING Group Centro Properties Group Tokyo Tatem ono Co Ltd RREEF TIAA- CREF GIC RE (Govt of Singapore) Prudential PLC Lightstone Group Nan Fung Group Propinvest Group CalSTRS Kerry Properties Lim ited SEB Group Chetrit Group China Overseas Land & Invt Ltd Lehm an Brothers Holdings Inc CalPERS K Wah International GE Capital Sim on Property Group Sun Hung Kai Properties Lim itedIm m ofinanz JP Morgan Hong Leong Group Evans Randall Dubai World Tokyu Land Corporation
Looking forward: mixed picture What is your perspective on your real estate market compared to last year?50%40%30%20%10% 0% More Optimistic Same Less Optimistic
2011: Focus on China, cautious optimism• China in the driver seat• Nuances across – Investment horizons: short and long term – Property types – Investment structures – Chinese provinces – Asia Pacific markets
China: Strong fundamentals• Scale and performance of the economy• Favorable long term trends – Continued urbanization – Unavoidable export sector – Strengthening domestic demand
China: Mixed short-term perspective• Global economic crisis – China – US – European Union• Global tensions – Currency exchange rates – Terms of trade – Current account imbalances
China: Mixed short-term perspective• Government’s ability to engineer – Continued growth – Availability of debt to the small-medium businesses – Demography – A soft landing• Chinese regional disparities
China: Real estate perspective• Maturing real estate market – Sustainability – Exit strategies, insurance companies – Greater quantity of investment opportunities
China: Real estate perspective• In the hands of the policymakers – Supply – competition – Availability of credit – Investment performance• Critical to foreign investors: The local partner The regulations
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact onReal Estate Market1. Land Supply Increase land supply for low-income housing, no less than 70% of the total land supply for residential purposes Crack down land stocking and land speculation Formulate detailed planning and construction conditions for each plot of land before tendering of land
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact onReal Estate Market Shorten the payment term for Land Grant Contract; and increase the deposit for land bidding Reform the Land Bidding System Strengthen control for land supply in second and third tier cities by central government
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact onReal Estate Market2. Financing Policy Lower risks associated with real estate development loan - No loan for delay in development - No loan for land premium - Under-construction will be used as collateral Increase down payment and interest rate for housing loan Monitor risks associated with real estate investment trust plan
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact onReal Estate Market3. Expand Purchase Limit to More Cities cities that have experienced a significant increase in the purchase p r i c e a n d t ra n s a c t i o n v o l u m e o f n e w l y c o n s t r u c t e d residential properties; cities in close proximity to major cities that have already implemented restrictive regulations.
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact onReal Estate Market4. Encourage Low-income Housing increase land supply for low-income housing; 70% of the land marked for residential properties will be used for low-income housing; increase investment by central and local government; all revenue from housing public fund and 10% of land premium will be invested in low-income housing; Increase credit support for low-income housing by banks; Reduce and exempt taxes and fees in connection with the building, selling and operating of the low-income housing.
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact onReal Estate Market5. Foreign Investment in Real Estate MOC delegates its power to approve any foreign investment below US$ 300 million falling into encouraged categories to the local government, as well as the foreign investment below US$50 million falling into the restricted categories. MOC Filing applies to all foreign investment in real estate.
Beyond China? Where are the best opportunities for real estate investment in Asia-Pacific?90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% China Australia/NZ Japan
Beyond China?• Australia – New Zealand• Japan• Taiwan• Hong Kong, Singapore• India, Russia• Indonesia• Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines,…
Global Office Property Clock Q3 2011 Note The Jones Lang LaSalle Property ClocksSM • This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimate each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle at end of September 2011 Hong Kong • Markets can move around the clock at different speeds Singapore and directions • The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the Shanghai relative position of markets in their rental cycle Moscow, Zurich Rental • Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. London City Growth Rents • Their position refers to Prime Face Rental Values London West End Slowing Falling Americas Asia-PacificParis, Beijing, São Paulo EMEA Rental Rents San Francisco Growth Bottoming Stockholm Accelerating Out Abu Dhabi New York Dubai, Seoul, Detroit Berlin, Sydney Mexico City MadridMilan, Washington DC, Toronto Amsterdam, Brussels, Los Angeles Mumbai, Dallas, Dehli Rome, Tokyo, Chicago Frankfurt, Johannesburg, Atlanta Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, October 2011
Asia Pacific real estate markets in 2012 Sustained Strong Asian Negative tenant economic real interest demand fundamentals rates Federal cheap lending rates are not showing signs of increase Capital Undersupply values of investable stable stock Borrowing Risk and uncertainty costs might Volatile rise Appreciating Dollar, Pound Asian and Euro currencies Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets Research
Real estate markets in the global cyclePhases of the Credit Cycle Expansion Downturn Households Europe, Middle Advanced Banking Sector East, Africa Europe Valuation Emerging Asia Credit conditions US Japan Asset quality Recovery Latin Repair Corporate America fundamentals Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets Research
China: Why go elsewhere? (2010 GDP at PPP)Guangdong 1,152 South Korea 1,466Jiansu 1,037 Indonesia 1,033Shandong 999 Australia 884Zhejiang 690 Taiwan 824Henan 581 Thailand 589Hebei 512 Malaysia 417Liaoning 463 Philippines 369Sichuan 428 Hong Kong 327Shanghai 428 Singapore 293Hunan 403 Vietnam 277Hubei 401 New 119 Zealand Source: China NBS Statistical Data and IMF
The rise of the discerning investor• Within China – Performing local governments – Strong balance sheets – Strong small and medium enterprise – Growing service sectors• Within the Asia-Pacific region – Secure/efficient business environment – Trade flows with China – Local Chinese communities
The discerning governments? Emerging marketsImperative to act• Improve the legal/business environment• Improve the physical infrastructure
The discerning governments? China• First stage of growth: economic adjustment • Transfer of resources across sectors • Infrastructure investment Easy to manage and plan• Sustainable growth: growth in productivity • About R&D • About Innovation Tough for government to pick winners
The discerning governments? ChinaThe key question for the future:Pace of reforms toward freer markets tounleash innovation in SME
In the end… How has MIPIM Asia changed your outlook?70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% More Optimistic Same Less Optimistic
And outstanding award-winning projects Shanghai Shimao Wonderland Intercontinental Marina Bay Financial Center Singapore