Presented By Peter Barberry,ICRISAT

1. Peter Carberry
ICRISAT
Agriculture’s narrative
Success in feeding the world or source of
social and environmental concern
Thursday 8th August 2019 – Technical session: "Science and technology to secure and sustain small
holder farmers’ livelihood and nutrition & health security“.

2. ICRISAT – sorghum, millets & legumes

3. Crawford Conference
Sir John Crawford
Chair TAC
Weathering the ‘Perfect
Storm’: Addressing the
Agriculture, Energy, Water,
Climate Change Nexus

4. A rising perfect storm

5. www.cgiar.org
Living within PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
• In 22 countries, the water stress level is above 70 per cent (2013-2017)
• Global Warming: 1.16 °C (2018)
• Forests Loss: 60 million hectares (2000 to 2016)
• Land degradation impacts 3.2 billion people
Global Warming: 1.16 °C
Forest area (% of land area)
Loss 60 million hectares (2000 to 2016)
World Bank Open DataGlobal Temperature Report for 2018

6. 6

7. Climate-smart agriculture for food security
Lipper et al., 2014
7
• Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming
and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under
the new realities of climate change
• Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten
agricultural production.
• CSA differs from ‘business-as-usual’ approaches by emphasizing
the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions
• Unless we change our approach to planning and investment for
agricultural growth and development, we risk misallocating human
and financial resources, generating agricultural systems incapable
of supporting food security and contributing to increasing climate
change.
• Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) can avoid this ‘lose–lose’ outcome

8. Climate Smart Agriculture
Agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience
(adaptation), reduces/removes GHGs (mitigation) where possible, and
enhances achievement of national food security (FAO, 2013)
8

9. Consideration and communication of risk
Kenya : 20 seasons of crop yield
Treatments & Plots
Trt Plot Nos
A Bare fallow 12
B Traditional (22K, 0N) 1 & 8
C Intercrop (22K + beans) 7
D 22K + 50% mulch 3 & 6
E 53K, 70N & P + excess mulch 4 & 10
F as E with reduced tillage 5 & 9
G 53K, 100N & P + full mulch 2 & 11
Maize grain (t/ha)
0
1
2
3
4
5
LR
1990SR
1990LR
1991SR
1991LR
1992SR
1992LR
1993SR
1993LR
1994SR
1994LR
1995SR
1995LR
1996SR
1996LR
1997SR
1997LR
1998SR
1998LR
1999SR
1999
Trt B
Trt C
Trt D
Trt E
Trt F
Trt G
“CSA” led to lower yields and
investment losses in many
years

10. www.cgiar.org
No other organization has done as much to
ensure families — especially the poorest — have
an answer to that question as CGIAR, the world’s
largest global agricultural research organization.”
What’s for
dinner?
Bill Gates in his blog
‘gatesnotes’
Photo: C
Wangari

11. www.cgiar.org
CGIAR Assets
11

12. www.cgiar.org
CGIAR Centers across the world
12
CGIAR SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION

13. Sorghum Pearl millet Finger millet Minor millets
Chickpea Groundnut Pigeonpea
(Peanut)
ICRISAT’s mandate crops
Critical for SAT agriculture
Foxtail millet
Kodo millet
Little millet
Proso millet
Barnyard millet

14. y = 4.2x
y = 4.1x
y = 13.0x
y = 26.3x
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
GrainYield(Kg/ha)
1950-65 1966-80 1981-1995 1996-2015
3% per annum; 1.5% accounted to genetic component
Success … Pearl millet in India
On-farm impact of pearl millet hybrids in India (Venkata Rao et al. 2018)
• Pearl Millet Hybrid Parents Research
Consortium (PMHPRC)
• Impact study covering 563 pearl millet
growers in three states assessed directly or
indirectly ICRISAT breeding lines
• PMHPRC hybrids covered ~ 60% of the
pearl millet hybrid area during 2013-14.
• Hybrids provided at least 20% higher grain
and fodder yield than the varieties/hybrids
they replaced.
• Total benefits due to these hybrids added
up to USD 133.7 million per year.
• The overall benefits at the country level
could surpass USD 150 million per year.
• Households planting improved varieties
would be 1.5 million farm families.

15. Highly nutritious
Environmentally friendly
Climate smart – resilient under extreme
weather conditions
Significant yield gap
Good opportunities to diversify both diets and
on-farm
Untapped demand and uses

16. Drought … but what can be done?

17. What is recommended practice?

18. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-700,000
-500,000
-300,000
-100,000
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
CroppingYearRainfall(mm)
FarmProfit($)
Sth Mallee Farm - Farm Profit vs Cropping year rainfall
Farm Profit/Loss
Cropping year rainfall
Actual farm data – southern Mallee farm (5200ha), 80% crop and 20% livestock (by area)
Costs: Inputs, Machinery, Labour and Financial
Data courtesy of Harm van Rees (CropFacts)
Climate variability makes dryland agriculture risky

19. Managing climate variability
1. Irrigation – watershed
development
2. Diversification – crop-
livestock-tree systems
3. Breeding for drought
4. Managing for drought –
a. Conservation agriculture
b. Seasonal climate
forecasting
c. Soil water management
5. Decision Support Systems
“Climate smart Agriculture”

20. Villa
ge
District State Nation
• All 37 wells have become functional
• Area under irrigation increased
• Increased water availability round the
year
Partnering with companies (CSR) on
watershed initiatives are being
undertaken in various districts across
different states in India
Bhoochetana project in
Karnataka benefits >5M
farmers
Genesis:
Kothapally
village,
Telangana
ICRISAT works
closely with the
Government of
India to scale up
its learnings
across the
country
1. Irrigation – watershed story in India
 Increased crop yield by 2066%
 Covered 6.67 m ha and benefitted 4.75 m farmers
 Contributed to rise in agriculture growth annually
above 5% since 2009
 Benefit cost ratio for the farmers 3-14:1
 Net benefits accrued in 5 years (US$ 453 M)

21. Dryland Eco-farm
 Improving resource use and cycling through
tree-crop-livestock interactions
Manure is critical
Agro-forestry alley cropping system which
combines shrubs (Improved Ziziphus mauritiana)
and annual crops (millet, cowpea), in rotation
between alleys of Australian acacia.
The crops are planted in water harvesting
structures (Half-moon and zai pits)
This agroecological system allows to prevent soil
erosion throught the wind break role of the
acacia shrubs and the fallen leave which also
contribute to improve soil fertility.
2. Diversification – crop-livestock-tree systems

22. Feed resource Contribution to overall feed resources (%)
Greens from CRP, forests, grazing 8.0
Planted forages 15.1
Crop residues 70.6
Concentrates 6.3
Deficit: feed availability versus feed requirement (%)
Dry matter (i.e. crop residue quantity) -6
Digestible crude protein -61
Total digestible nutrients -50
(NIANP 2012; Blümmel at al. 2014)
The croplands feed livestock
Feed resource supply - demand scenarios in India

23. • 104 germplasm
accessions released as
cultivars in 51 countries
• 1019 cultivars released in
81 countries from
germplasm and breeding
material supplied from
ICRISAT
3. Breeding for drought

24. Drought tolerance
Root traits- root length density, root length,
root surface area
Yield, harvest index, 100-seed weight,
number pods per plant, biomass, specific
leaf area, delta carbon ratio, days to
flowering, days to maturity
Heat tolerance
Pods per plant, heat tolerance index, yield,
biomass, harvest index, days to flowering,
days to maturity
Salinity tolerance
Pod number, seed number, seed yield,
Shoot dry weight, harvest index
100 seed weight
Ascochyta blight
Seedling resistance and adult plant
resistance
Helicoverpa
Leaf damage rating (flowering), Unit larval
weight, Helicoverpa larvae/10 plants, Days to
first flowering
Botrytis grey mould
Heat tolerance
Over 50 traits mapped
Pod
borer
Ascochyta
blight
Salinity tolerance
Drought tolerance
Fusarium wilt
Fusarium wilt, Botrytis grey mould, Protein content
Chickpea

25. • 95% of chickpea area under
short-duration varieties
developed from ICRISAT-bred
lines in Southern India (AP &
Telangana) and Myanmar
• During the period of 15 years
(1999-2013), chickpea
production increased 5.8-fold in
southern India and 7.2-fold in
Myanmar
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Yield(kg/ha)
Area(100ha)/Production(1000t)
Area (1000 ha)
Production (1000 t)
Yield (kg/ha)
AP & Telangana
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Yield(kg/ha)
Area(100ha)/Production(1000t) Area (1000
ha)
Myanmar
Impacts of short-duration chickpea varieties
in Southern India & Myanmar

26. ● Minimum mechanical soil disturbance
● Permanent soil cover (crop or mulch)
● Diverse crop and pasture species
Source
FAO 2011
Courtesy: John Kirkegaard
4a. Managing for drought – conservation agriculture

27. Rick Llewellyn and Frank d’Emden (2009) Adoption of no-till cropping practices in Australian grain growing
regions. GRDC report
Conservation agriculture – a “new” energy, water and machinery
system that took 40 years of development & adoption

28. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global rainfall forecastb
Long Paddock web page www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/
Carberry, P.S., Hammer, G.L., Meinke, H. and Bange, M., 2000. The potential value of seasonal climate
forecasting in managing cropping systems. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N. and Mitchell, C. (Eds.), Application of
Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems - The Australian Experience. Kluwer
Academic Publishers. p. 167-181
4b. Managing for drought – seasonal climate forecasting

29. Combining SOI phases & simulation
Zimbabwe, maize, deep sand, 52 kg N/ha fertilizer, 1959-1998
Sept-Oct SOI
Probability of exceedance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Yield (kg/ha)
Probability%
Con -
Con +
Rapid -
Rapid +
Near 0
Whitbread, A., Robertson, M., Carberry, P. and Dimes, J. (2010). How farming systems
simulation can aid the development of more sustainable smallholder farming systems in
southern Africa. European Journal of Agronomy 32, 51-58

30. Effect of variations in
PAW and seeding
opportunity on
percentage of
modelled yields in
Mallee, South
Australia
Upper tercile (white)
Middle tercile (grey)
Lower tercile (black)
Planting opportunity: Early Late
At sowing
Low SW
Moderate SW
High SW
Whitbread et al
4c. Managing for drought – soil water management

31. • Products (plastic mulch,
polymer sprays, films,
foams, processed crop
residues)
• a barrier to evaporation
of water from soil
• maximise conversion of
rainfall to transpiration
• 0.8 t/ha increase
Courtesy: Mike Robertson
Barriers to evaporation

32. Yield Prophet www.yieldprophet.com.au
• Joint initiative of BCG and CSIRO
• Commercial subscription service
• Provides reports on yield
probability, crop & soil status,
impacts of management
5. Managing for drought – Decision support
systems

33. Yield Prophet - Simulation
March MayApril July SeptemberAugust NovemberOctoberJune
Soil
sampling
(starting
point)
Crop sown
APSIM simulation
(water and nitrogen
balance, crop growth)
Today
Simulated
yields (t/ha)
4.4
2.9
3.8
2.2
1.7
2.3
1.5
1.8
3.9
0.6
100 years of
daily climate
data
Report
generated

34. Wimmera Mail-Times
Mallee farmers invested in their crops in 2011 despite
a decile 2 (very dry) season
• Characterisation of soils for water holding capacity
• Regular monitoring to determine the state of soil water and nitrogen
• Conserving soil moisture through conservation tillage and weed control
• Use of decision support to help make investment decisions
• Seasonal climate forecasting

35. • Digital technologies have the power to overcome physical barriers and
democratize information
• Mobile Phones are ubiquitous devices that are entry points for farmers
to digital services.
• Mobile devices provide the last mile connectivity and first mile of
reconnaissance of information for farmers
Agro-entrepreneur
Smallholder farmer
Large-scale buyer
Government
Farmer
database
Mobile
banking
eCommerce
platform
Individual consumer
• Allows consumers to buy directly from
farmers through mobile and web
interfaces
• Includes supply chain management to
ensure quality and traceability
• Holds information on each farmer – land
boundaries, soil type, varieties grown, etc.
• Updates in real time so buyers can track
and forecast supply
• Gives farmers access to payments,
savings, and direct deposit services
Opportunities for smallholder farmers?
Data
ecosystem
• Aggregates geospatial and temporal
datasets for sustainable intensification
(e.g. digital soil maps, weather, variety
adaptation zones, crop systems)
• Stores data in the cloud

36. But … innovations to increase productivity will
likely be riskier due to increased investment…

37. And … more to do in Africa
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
100
200
300
400
500
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Yield(MT/ha)
Totalproduction(thousandsofMT)
andareaplanted(thousandofha)
Year of harvestProduction Area Yield Linear (Area) Linear (Yield)
Sorghum - Zimbabwe
Pearl Millet - Niger

38. India – Africa: South-South Collaboration

39. Conclusions
• Agriculture’s narrative is one of success
• Future challenges must be met with research as a major
source of innovation
• The world’s poor smallholder farmers and consumers
need to benefit from innovation
• Risk-mitigating practices, tools and policies necessary
along the full agrifood system
• South-South Collaboration – leveraging India’s success for
Africa

40. Thank You