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10010101000101010101010101010001010010101010101101010100010101010101010101010101010101010101010101001010101000101010101010...
New Opportunities =                 New CompetitionSpectrum vs. Bandwidth: Airwaves and the avalanche of content transmitt...
Lobbyists       Media             TechnologyA Star-Studded Arrayof Powerful ProvidersHave Major FinancialStakes in Spectru...
• FCC Spectrum Allocation *       Proposed Incentive Auctions for TV stations              Motivated by demand for mobil...
“Channel Sharing”• Seeks to preserve local stations and  reclaim spectrum for wireless services• Two channels would use sa...
Policy Makers’ Dilemma                                                                FCC Chairman• Two-phase auction:    ...
Marketplace Reality• Big cable companies’ “SpectrumCo” un-built wireless  licenses sold to Verizon       $3.6 billion; nee...
Internet/Online Advertising has exceeding all      other platforms except broadcast TV.             But the gap is closing...
And Also…• Mobile video?                  Mobile Content Venture  Via broadcasting?                               • Using ...
Speaking of tablets and 2-screen TVCross-platform and multi-platform deliver expands        • Smart TVs with hundreds of a...
Again: the Divas are ready for marketplace battle                                    Trying Again                  © 2012 ...
Facing the Era of Cord Cutting• “Over-The-Top” delivery: relies on broadband• “Cord Cutting” and “Cord Trimming”   •   Red...
OTT: Where the Shows AreTV set-makers have deals with video aggregators to make their  programs available directly to ’Net...
As for “Hybrid TV”….• Has not yet clicked in the U.S.• Broadcast TV delivered via Internet facilities   o Some startups:  ...
Social TV and Simultaneous Viewing• 80% of U.S. tablet and smartphone users have  the devices nearby while watching TV• So...
Simultaneous Use of Tablet                        While Watching TV                                 Source: Nielsen April ...
Identifying the Global Appeal of InteractivityConsumer opinion about the ability to interact more personally with content(...
Viewers of all ages are connected, multi-tasking and comfortable with Internet-delivered video   Source: IBM “Beyond Digit...
More Policy Factors• Privacy and security  • U.S. standards are now weaker than in Europe• Network neutrality  • Challenge...
Digital OutlookDifferent industries are finding new ways to  collaborate, but legacy turf-wars will persistTechnology prov...
Thank You.            Gary Arlen    Arlen Communications Inc.      7315 Wisconsin Avenue Suite 805E           Bethesda, MD...
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Gary Arlen (Arlen Communications) - Bandwidth Ballet

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Dancing With Digital Divas: Spectrum Dilemmas & Cross- Plattform Delivery
Präsentation auf dem Medientreffpunkt Mitteldeutschland
Hybride Netze - Wettbewerb um die Frequenzen i
Dienstag, 08. 05. 2012 , 9.30-11.00 Uhr

Publié dans : Technologie, Business
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Gary Arlen (Arlen Communications) - Bandwidth Ballet

  1. 1. 100101010001010101010101010100010100101010101011010101000101010101010101010101010101010101010101010010101010001010101010101010101010101010101010001010100101001010101010100010100010010100101010100010101010101010101001010101001010010101010101001010100101 Gary Arlen President Arlen Communications LLC Prepared for "Medientreffpunkt Mitteldeutschland 2012” 8 May 2012
  2. 2. New Opportunities = New CompetitionSpectrum vs. Bandwidth: Airwaves and the avalanche of content transmitted to viewersSpectrum Dilemma Cross-platform DeliveryWireless carriers demand “Over-the-Top” video, spectrum for growing streaming, IPTV mobile services Tablets, smart-M2M systems proliferate phones as preferred viewing 64.7 ExabytesCisco Global Forecast (billion GB) devicesfor bandwidth “Non-traditional” carriersdemand, 2010- 2015 (Google, Yahoo) aggregate Video content and customers © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 2
  3. 3. Lobbyists Media TechnologyA Star-Studded Arrayof Powerful ProvidersHave Major FinancialStakes in Spectrumand Multi-platformDelivery Policies andEconomics © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 3
  4. 4. • FCC Spectrum Allocation *  Proposed Incentive Auctions for TV stations  Motivated by demand for mobile/wireless bandwidth $25 billion income to Federal Government $7 billion to emergency wireless network $2 billion to broadcasters for channel repacking $15 billion for jobs programs, etc.  Voluntary Broadcaster Participation • Theory: fast cash. Reality: insufficient value in small markets • No timetable, but “soon” – target 2015, unlikely • Related issues – Spectrum repacking = transmitter changes – White Spaces = avoid interference • For use by unlicensed transmitters (e.g. wireless home networks) – Demands of public safety, security* “Spectrum Grab” to broadcasters © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 4
  5. 5. “Channel Sharing”• Seeks to preserve local stations and reclaim spectrum for wireless services• Two channels would use same 6 MHz frequency• Could limit HD or 3D broadcasts• Raises Questions about: • Must-Carry vs. Retransmission Consent • Local availability • Technical issues • Independent management of FCC rules  FCC opened rulemaking process in April © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 5
  6. 6. Policy Makers’ Dilemma FCC Chairman• Two-phase auction: Julius Genachowski – Reverse auction to reclaim TV channel space/determine supply – Standard auction to allow wireless companies to acquire spectrum• Spectrum Allocation issue also involves • Relinquish government spectrum • 500 MHz by 2020 • Reassign mobile satellite spectrum for terrestrial wireless services • Retransmission consent for cable carriage - uncertain• Also confronting: • Mobile DTV deployment • Network neutrality (especially wireless broadband) © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 6
  7. 7. Marketplace Reality• Big cable companies’ “SpectrumCo” un-built wireless licenses sold to Verizon $3.6 billion; needs FCC approval• Verizon plans to launch wireless Others video service by end-2012 o Would leverage FiOS wired broadband content connections o Would add to spectrum congestion; require new data pricing• Verizon will divest other spectrum (FCC spectrum caps) • Google’s spectrum and landline ambitions o Kansas City 1 GB to the home wireline pilot• Lobbying juggernaut: House adopted FCC revision plan. o Top 10 legislators got nearly $500, 000 in campaign contributions from broadcasters, telcos, wireless lobbyists. © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 7
  8. 8. Internet/Online Advertising has exceeding all other platforms except broadcast TV. But the gap is closing. U.S. Broadcast TV InternetSource: Interactive Advertising Bureau, April 2012 : IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report: An Industry Survey Conducted by PwC and Sponsored by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) 2011 Full Year Results
  9. 9. And Also…• Mobile video? Mobile Content Venture Via broadcasting? • Using existing TV stations • Need wireless telco cooperation to put receiver chips in subsidized handsets … or wireless broadband? 25% of U.S. video viewing is on “other platforms” including tablets (Source: Parks Associates, April 2012) © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 9
  10. 10. Speaking of tablets and 2-screen TVCross-platform and multi-platform deliver expands • Smart TVs with hundreds of apps • “TV Everywhere” (cable companies) with authentication • Ultraviolet Studio control via the cloud • YouTube’s $100 million original production fund + studio deals • Facebook studio deals © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 10
  11. 11. Again: the Divas are ready for marketplace battle Trying Again © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 11
  12. 12. Facing the Era of Cord Cutting• “Over-The-Top” delivery: relies on broadband• “Cord Cutting” and “Cord Trimming” • Reducing cable services: availability of online video • 5% - 9% of cable churn now • Streaming services carry TV shows: (owned by NBC, ABC, Fox) • Will grow as more VOD rights are cleared • Fueled by and• Cable MSOs acknowledge: their core business may become data, not video packaging • Comcast introduces • Time Warner Cable envisions “Pandora-like model”• Wreaks havoc with core financials • Hulu commercials generate 50% revenue of network advertising © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 12
  13. 13. OTT: Where the Shows AreTV set-makers have deals with video aggregators to make their programs available directly to ’Net-connected “Smart TVs”                                 Source: Parks Associates, Arlen Communications, companies, 2011 (c) 2012 Arlen Communications Inc. 13
  14. 14. As for “Hybrid TV”….• Has not yet clicked in the U.S.• Broadcast TV delivered via Internet facilities o Some startups: Broadcaster Approval Proprietary hardware that lets TV stations stream personalized TV to authenticated connected devices. Investment from NAB and CEA. 50 initial markets.  Tiny OTA antennas to pick up all local broadcast station, transmit via IP to home or mobile devices $12.99/month. Uses DVR copyright case to avoid retransmission  consent. Being sued by broadcasters. And also: Broadcast TV via the Internet: ? Even Comcast has patent to let set-top box surf the Web © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 14
  15. 15. Social TV and Simultaneous Viewing• 80% of U.S. tablet and smartphone users have the devices nearby while watching TV• Social TV most popular during events • 13 million during CBS Grammy (music) awards • 12.2 million during Super Bowl • 3.8 million during Academy Awards (older audience) Source BlueFin Laboratories, March 2012• Advertisers are developing games, T-commerce• Enhanced pricing for commercials, with direct- marketing implications © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 15
  16. 16. Simultaneous Use of Tablet While Watching TV Source: Nielsen April 2012 26% Several times/day 12% 24% 15% 19% Once a day 16% 17% 14% 24%Several times/week 19% 23% 20% Several 13% USA 15% times/month 10% Germany 13% 7% UK 1/mo or less 9% Italy 7% 9% 12% Never 29% 20% 29% © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 16
  17. 17. Identifying the Global Appeal of InteractivityConsumer opinion about the ability to interact more personally with content(rank “appealing” or “very appealing” in 5-level survey) Source: IBM “Beyond Digital” report, April 2012; Data from 2011 Digital Consumer Survey http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/ibv-beyond-digital.html
  18. 18. Viewers of all ages are connected, multi-tasking and comfortable with Internet-delivered video Source: IBM “Beyond Digital” report, April 2012; Data from 2011 Digital Consumer Survey http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/ibv-beyond-digital.html
  19. 19. More Policy Factors• Privacy and security • U.S. standards are now weaker than in Europe• Network neutrality • Challenges as media/carrier companies have more control of content on their infrastructure• Bandwidth management • Related to ‘net neutrality and competitive pricing• © Copyright• Antitrust • Ownership caps, Spectrum caps © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 19
  20. 20. Digital OutlookDifferent industries are finding new ways to collaborate, but legacy turf-wars will persistTechnology providers are increasingly guiding the process of delivering entertainment and information • Relying on “The Cloud” • “TV Everywhere” is the mantra, especially for young audiences“Media malaise” persists: What happens next? © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 20
  21. 21. Thank You. Gary Arlen Arlen Communications Inc. 7315 Wisconsin Avenue Suite 805E Bethesda, MD 20814 USA www.arlencom.com 301 656 7940 GArlen@ArlenCom.com © 2012 Arlen Communications LLC 21

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