1. D1 Earnings gap up
Catalyst: Earnings beat
Setup: D1 earnings gap up
Trades: VWAP Pull In
Ticker: MS
Date: 17-1-23

2. Bigger picture: XLF and VIX
XLF:
Friday XLF gapped down after
banks predicted mild recession.
The whole sector was done even
though the earnings were positive.
JPM and XLF made a strong
reclaim. XLF made a 2ATR move,
JPM made a 3 ATR move on Friday.
Today XLF traded sideways.
VIX level : 19
VIX bounced and popped up above
the 20 level but closed just below.
Still a trading environment with
high volatility

3. Gameplan
Potential to go higher/lower MS
Holding above/below key level? Yes: 95
Strong/weak market (bigger
picture)? Yes
Strong/ weak market intraday? No
Strong/weak fundamental
catalyst? Yes
Strong/weak setup? Medium
Elevated RVOL? Yes
Room to trend on daily? Yes
Room to trend intraday? Medium
Checklist
-The earnings beat wasn’t extremely
strong. But it might have been more
important given that GS reported a big
miss on earnings today. Today’s beat
might have been relative strength.
- It was a large gap up and I think there
were odds that it was too extended for
a strong move/trend. But the amount of
volume and relative strength of catalyst
provided strong intraday price action.
-The first hour MS was up 2ATR which is
a lot. On a technical and market play I
would say this is perhaps too extended.
But again, the volume and catalyst
made sure price pushed higher.
Trade2hold
Catalyst and price action were
very strong, that’s what made
this stock a trade2hold. I think it
would have been difficult to call
a new HOD as price pulled into
VWAP. But after such strong,
elevated volume and price
action, this stock isn’t likely to go
consolidate around VWAP.

4. Catalyst &
Fundamentals
Catalyst: MS beats profits and revenue marks.
Setup: D1 earnings gap up.
Premarket pre buzz: >3%
Float: 1,31B
Institutional Ownership: 63,8%
Short %: 1,36%
ATR: 1,76.
Average Daily volume (50 day): 8,4 million.
Daily volume: 27,9 million.
Gap%/Gap ATR: 4,56% / 2.37ATR
RVOL: >3

5. VWAP Pull In- Bullish Trade2hold – Trade
Management
Trade2hold - Flat
Significant 5m close below 20 EMA:
1) close on above average selling
volume;
2) a new 5m low that occurs after
close;
Goal: don’t sell more than 50%
when going flat.
Reason2hold
-Shallow volume and making lower
highs. Sometimes the trend is still
intact when there’s a significant
close above the 5m 20EMA.
Trade2hold – Core Exit strategy
Lack of conviction for new HOD:
-ATR moves: 0,5ATR trend from
VWAP.
-Near HOD.
Conviction for new HOD once
volume start coming in:
-2.25ATR
When price hits you’re
measured move target, hold
your core until there is a true
reason2sell. Trail up your stop
along 5m 9EMA.
VWAP entry.
Try to enter as close as VWAP as possible
once price reclaims the 1m 20EMA.
Reasons2sell
-Significant selling volume on 5m.
-Unable to make a new high on low
volume. Double top.
-Time. It’s almost closing time (15:45) and
we are near HOD. Good to take some
profit.

6. Key levels :

7. Technical
Analysis:
VWAP Pull In
Quick false break down and an
immediate reclaim.
Shallow volume during pull in
Reclaim of EMA’s.
Strong open.

8. Ideal entry. New goal for VWAP Pull In: <25% entries.

9. Ideal Trade Management.

10. What could I have done
better?
• It’s very important that I set ambitious targets on stocks with a
strong catalyst and strong volume. These are the stocks that make
the biggest moves. The open move of 2ATR seems a lot, perhaps it
looks too large/extended, but this is for a reason. This is a strong
stock, and strong stocks can easily move higher. When I enter this
trade, I need to be ambitious and set a 2.25ATR measured profit
target. There’s absolutely no reason2sell before we have reached
HOD.
• What I could do to boost my performance is to sell small partials of
5-10% into the new highs/tops. This way I am capitalizing on the
highest exits while keeping my core. This way, I am not selling 25-
33% of my position for a close below the 5m 20EMA. I am doing a
better job selling at higher prices, which I am not doing currently.