Offshore Wind Energy – Potential for India This presentation analyze energy demand scenario, especially that of almost unlimited wind energy and highlight vast potential of offshore wind energy for India in territorial water along its long coastline. Challenges to exploit this potential, financial viability of such offshore energy projects, social, environmental, and other related issues are discussed in Indian context to serve as a useful tool for policymakers to allocate resources for detailed studies for estimation and its ultimate utilization to add to growing pool of renewable energy

1. OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY:
POTENTIAL FOR INDIA
Col. Madan Singh, IRSEE
BE(Electrical), MBA(Finance), FIE(India), SMIEEE,
Group General Manager, RITES Limited, India
General Engineering Consultants to Ahmedabad Metro, India
madan.singh@ieee.org
GEC: General Engineering Consultants,
A Consortium of
SYSTRA-RITES-AECOM-OCG
MEGA: Metro Metro-Link Express for
Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
Gemini Offshore Wind Park,
Netherlands,
150 x 4 MW = 600 MW,
Completed 24 Aug 2016

2. OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY: POTENTIAL FOR INDIA
 Introduction
 GDP Growth and Energy Demand
 The Energy Trilemma
 Fast Rising Electricity Demand
 Electricity Generating Capacity in India
 Renewable Energy Sources in India
 Wind Energy – An Alternative for India
 Offshore Wind Resources in India
 Levelized Cost of Electricity
 Social Impact of Wind Project
 Conclusions

3. GDP GROWTH FORECAST
 PPP1 RANKING
 MER RANKING
PPP
Rank
2014 2030 2050
Country GDP Country Proj. GDP Country Proj. GDP
1. China 17.63 China 36.11 China 61.08
2. US 17.42 US 25.45 India 42.21
3. India 7.28 India 17.14 US 41.38
4. Japan 4.79 Japan 6.00 Indonesia 12.21
5. Germany 3.62 Indonesia 5.49 Brazil 9.16
Total
MER
Rank
2014 2030 2050
Country GDP Country Proj. GDP Country Proj. GDP
1. US 17.42 China 26.67 China 53.55
2. China 10.36 US 25.45 US 41.38
3. Japan 4.77 India 7.30 India 27.94
4. Germany 3.82 Japan 5.99 Indonesia 8.74
5. France 2.90 Germany 4.73 Brazil 8.53
10. India 2.05 Mexico 2.88 Germany 6.34
1 Purchasing Power Parity
(PPP) estimates adjust
for price level differences
across different
economies and provide a
better measure of goods
and services produced in
an economy than GDP at
Market Exchange Rates
(MER) estimates
GDP In Trillion USD at 2014 prices

4. GDP GROWTH AND ENERGY DEMAND
 World population growth from 7.0 to 9.4/8.7 billion by 2050 (26-36%)
 Gradual reduction in overall energy intensity and improvement in energy efficiency
Energy intensity is a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation’s economy. It is calculated as units
of energy per unit of GDP. High energy intensities indicate a high price or cost of converting energy into GDP.
Low energy intensity indicates a lower cost of converting energy into GDP
 Global primary energy demand growth from 152 to 193/244 PWh in 2050 (27-61%)
 Global electricity demand growth from 21.5 to 47.9/53.6 PWh in 2050 (123-150%)
9.3, 193, and 47.9 under Symphony Scenario and 8.7, 244 and 53.6 under Jazz Scenario
Source: The World Bank : PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent (2011)
Energy Use, GDP, and Energy Intensity Indexes, 1950-2011
Source: www.energy.gov
PWh = 1015 Wh

5. THE ENERGY TRILEMMA
 The energy sector is at a transition point and faces growing challenges
 Transforming energy supply
 Advancing energy access
 Addressing affordability
 Improving energy efficiency
 Managing demand
 De-carbonizing in line with
requirement of COP 21
(2015 climate change agreement)
 Energy sustainability
 Energy security,
 Energy equity
 Environmental sustainability
Balancing these 3 goals
Constitutes a “Trilemma”
The Energy Trilemma – a “Trilemma” of objectives to deliver affordable and
sustainable energy transformation for all stakeholders

7. FAST RISING ELECTRICITY DEMAND
 Global energy demand growth from 152 to 193/244 PWh in 2050 (27-61%)
 Global electricity demand growth from 21.5 to 47.9/53.6 PWh in 2050 (123-150%)
 Electricity - convenience, ability to make use of renewable resources - to grow fastest, 32% share,
 Symphony scenario (environmental sustainability through internationally coordinated policies,
assumes 80% of electricity generated using low carbon sources and government promoted
 Jazz scenario, is consumer focused, has less trade barriers, assumes globalised economy on
accessibility and affordability of energy, and maintain quality of supply with the commercially
competitive use of available energy sources
Role of different energy carriers in final energy Worldwide Share of Primary Energy
PWh = 1015 Wh, peta watt-hours

8. ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY IN INDIA
 Rapidly growing generating capacity,
 Addition of 100 GW in just four years.
 Increasing urbanization,
 100 smart cities initiatives
 Rapid industrialization,
 Industrial Corridors, Make in India initiatives
 24x7 Power for All
Installed
Capacity
Thermal
(MW)
Nuclear
(MW)
Renewables (MW) Total (MW)
Hydel R.E.S. Sub Total
31-Dec-47 854 - 508 - 508 1,362
31-Mar-74 9,058 640 6,966 - 6,966 16,664
31-Mar-02 74,429 2,720 26,269 1,628 27,897 1,05,046
31-Mar-12 1,31,603 4,780 38,990 24,503 63,493 1,99,877
31-Mar-16 2,10,675 5,780 42,783 42,727 85,510 3,01,965
31-Oct-16 2,12,469 5,780 43,112 45,917 89,029 3,07,278

9. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN INDIA
 Renewable capacity (42.85 GW) overtook hydropower capacity (42.78 GW) in Apr-2016.
 Strong central policy initiatives and growing private sector investment
 Ambitious plans for 175 GW renewable power capacities [100 GW of solar, 60 GW of wind,
10 GW of biomass, and 5 GW of small hydro (SHP)] by 2022
 This envisage 60% of officially estimated wind potential and 13% of solar potential
 Renewable energy resources of about 916 GW (10.60 GW - geothermal; 12.46 GW - tidal;
41.00 GW - wave; 102.79 GW – wind(onshore); and 748.98 GW - solar) might become
limited due to technological, social and environmental constraints and land availability
 There is an urgent need to look for new alternative to known alternatives
R.E.S. 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17*
Wind 7.67 9.34 10.65 12.81 16.90 18.48 21.14 23.44 26.78 28.08
Solar 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.94 1.69 2.63 3.74 6.76 8.51
Biomass 1.33 1.65 2.17 2.60 3.14 3.60 4.01 4.42 4.83 4.88
SHP 2.05 2.16 2.60 2.91 3.41 3.64 3.80 4.06 4.27 4.32
U&I 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12
TOTAL 11.13 13.24 15.52 18.45 24.50 27.54 31.69 35.78 42.75 45.92
* Up to 30.09.2016

12. 0
5000
NIWE
LBNL
Jami
Hossain et
al.
Xi Lu et al.
102
2006
4250
2076
WIND ENERGY – AN ALTERNAIVE FOR INDIA (1)
 First wind farms set up in 1986 in coastal areas of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu
using 55 kW wind turbines
 Potential for wind farms in India > 2,000 GW (by Dr. Jami Hossain1 in 2011)
 Potential for wind farms in India ~ 2,006 GW at 80 m hub height (by LBNL2 in 2012)
excluding farms, forests, protected land and hard terrains
 MNRE, GOI announced a lower estimation of the potential wind resource (excluding
offshore) in India at 49.130 GW and 102.788 GW at 50 m and 80 m hub height
respectively, at 15% capacity factor based on assessment of its nodal agency NIWE3
 NIWE assumed, 9 MW/km2 of wind power density with average spacing of 5D x 7D, 8D x
4D and 7D x 4D, where D is the rotor diameter of turbine
2 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), US managed by University of California
1 Dr. Jami Hossain, et al., “Report on India’s Wind Power Potential” June 2015
3 National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE, previously C-WET), under Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Govt. of India

13. WIND ENERGY – AN ALTERNAIVE FOR INDIA (2)
 Potential for wind farms in India - 4250 GW at 80 m hub height (by Dr. Jami Hossain in 2013) with
currently prevalent technologies excluding Himalayan and Urban regions
 He used Geographic Information System (GIS), a well established and systemic analysis used all
over the world, to provide an accurate way to identify regions with the potential for wind farm
development.
 Official wind power potential of China increased 9 times, using this technology.
 These assessments have been subsequently revalidated by a number of independent studies
 Faced with gross underestimation of wind power potential, MNRE in Sep 2014, constituted a
committee to re-assess and report India onshore wind potential at 100 m and 120 m hub height
 CSTEP, WFMS, and SSEF, as part of the Committee, submitted a Report “Re-assessment of
India’s On-shore Wind Power Potential in April 2016
2 WinDForce Management Services Private Limited
3 Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation
1 Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy
Land Rank
GW Potential -
CSTEP
GW Potential -
WFMS
100 m 120 m 100 m 120 m
Rank 1 (Waste Land) 1,001 1,149 591 653
Rank 2 (Agricultural Land) 1,279 1,409 1,222 1,435
Rank 3 (Forest Land) 479 401 349 453
Total 2,759 2,959 2,162 2,541

14. WIND ENERGY – AN ALTERNAIVE FOR INDIA (3)
 Capacity estimates based on a 5D x 7D configuration, provides 5.7 MW/km2 power density, results
into low losses due to interference between the turbines:
2,162 - 2,759 GW at 100 m hub height
2,541 - 2,959 GW at 120 m hub height
 Capacity estimates based on 3D x 5D densely packed configuration provides the most optimistic
estimate of the technical potential, at density of 13.3 MW/km2 that increases the technical potential:
5,043 - 6,439 GW at 100 m hub height
5,927 - 6,905 GW at 120 m hub height
 Assessment may vary depending on region specific terrain and layout of turbines but it is about 20
times the current installed capacity of India at 307 GW (Sep-2016). It is all onshore wind potential.
 451,128 km2 for 6,000 GW wind farms @13.3 MW/km2, i.e. 13.7% of land area of India
 Every 100 MW of wind power will reduce 301,387 t CO2 annually based on the grid emission factor
of 0.983 t CO2/MWh.
GW Potential CSTEP WFMS
100 m 120 m 100 m 120 m
5D x 7D, 5.7 MW/km2 2,759 2,959 2,162 2,541
3D x 5D, 13.3 MW/km2 6,439 6,905 5,043 5,927

18. OFFSHORE WIND RESOURCES IN INDIA (1)
 India has 7,517 km coastline; 5,423 km - peninsular India; and 2,094 km - Andaman, Nicobar, and
Lakshadweep island chains
 Despite having land mass of 3,287,263 km2, availability of land to harness onshore renewable
energy resources is one of the biggest challenge in densely populated countries like India
 Offshore wind energy, a “strategic energy source” to enable long term energy security
 Indian naval hydrographic charts: the mainland coastline consists of sandy beaches (43%); rocky
shores, including cliffs (11%); and marshy shores (46%)
 Continental shelf are best suited for offshore wind farms
 Despite odds, offshore wind provides gigantic potential, no official estimates so far for India, though
“National Offshore Wind Energy Policy - 2015” announced by MNRE on Oct 1, 2015.
 Worldwide offshore wind power capacity 75 GW by 2020, its contribution to grow from 1 TWh in
2010 to 370 TWh in 2035, as compared 740 TWh from Solar
 The consortium led by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) is implementing the Facilitating
Offshore Wind in India (FOWIND) project along with consortium partners CSTEP, DNV, GL, GPCL,
and WISE
 For offshore wind energy, MOU have been signed in Oct 2014 by MNRE, NIWE and Consortium of
NTPC, PGCIL, IREDA, PFC, PTC, GPCL to develop 100 MW offshore wind power projects in Tamil
Nadu and Gujarat.

20. OFFSHORE WIND RESOURCES IN INDIA (2)
 Key benefits of offshore wind resources are:
(1) Offshore wind resource generally are huge, can generate more energy from fewer turbines;
(2) Large cities located near a coastline, offshore wind is suitable for large scale development near
the major demand centers, avoiding the need for long transmission lines; and
(3) Building wind farms offshore makes sense in densely populated coastal regions, high land rates
makes onshore development expensive and face opposition from various pressure groups
 In offshore: abundant wind availability, low environmental effects and good wind speeds –
often up to 12 m/s, not available onshore.
 Offshore winds are 0.5 to 1 m/s higher than
onshore, depending on the distance from the coast
 India has territorial water up to 12 nm and exclusive
economic zone (EEZ) from 12 nm to 200 nm
 The downsides are the need to protect the wind
turbines from salt spray, the higher foundation
and installation costs and the additional expenses
of organizing operation and maintenance activities.
Progression of expected wind turbine evolution to deeper water

22. LEVALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (1)
Where,
It : Capital (Investment) expenditures in the year t
Mt : Operation and maintenance expenditures in the year t
Ft : Fuel expenditures in the year t
Et : Electricity generated in the year t
n : Expected lifetime of system or generating station
r : Discount rate

23. Plant Type Capacity
Factor (%)
Levelized
Capital
Cost*
Fixed
O&M
Cost*
Variable
O&M Cost*
Transmission
Cost*
Total
System
Cost*
Coal 85 60.4 4.2 29.4 1.2 95.1
Natural Gas 87 15.9 2.0 53.6 1.2 72.6
Nuclear 90 70.1 11.8 12.2 1.1 95.2
Wind 36 57.7 12.8 0.0 3.1 73.6
Solar PV 25 109.8 11.4 0.0 4.1 125.3
Solar Thermal 20 191.6 42.1 0.0 6.0 239.7
Geothermal 92 34.1 12.3 0.0 1.4 47.8
Biomass 83 47.1 14.5 37.6 1.2 100.5
Hydro 54 70.7 3.9 7.0 2.0 83.5
Wind-Offshore 38 168.6 22.5 0.0 5.8 196.9
LEVALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (2)
* Costs are U.S. average levelized cost (2013 USD/MWh)

25.  Project activity improve living standards of the local community by Generating employment and
basic amenities in remote regions
 Lease rent and tax on land used for the project - augment finances of rural economy, local bodies
 Reduce the ill effects of Global Warming – produce no greenhouse gases or particulate matters
 Conserves water resources, fossil fuels, no supply or input price disruptions
 Transmissions related issues, especially at islands and remote locations
 Other Living Resources – Wind turbines may kill some birds, bats, etc.; problems like destruction of
remnant native vegetation; erosion connected with building of roads;
 Noise – Like all mechanical systems, wind turbines produce some noise when they operate. Design
improvement, increased hub height substantially reduced noise from wind turbines.
 Radio/Radar/Aviation Interference – Turbines with metal blades caused television interference in
areas near the turbine. Composite blades and higher hub height help reduce radio interference
 162 fatalities reported world-wide in the modern history of wind power from 1970 to 2015. They
include transport accidents associated with wind farms; air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels
is killing seven million people each year according to the World Health Organization (WHO)
 Aesthetics and Visual Impacts – spacing, design, and uniformity of installation, some love them,
some hates but “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”
SOCIAL IMPACT OF WIND PROJECTS (1)

26. SOCIAL IMPACT OF WIND PROJECTS (2)

27. CONCLUSIONS
 Wind power alone can take care of whole electricity requirement of India in
foreseeable future centuries
 As technologies evolve, hub heights increase and offshore potential get
harnessed; India and also the whole World can be relieved off its energy worries
forever

28. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I express my sincere thanks for opportunity given by the organisers for selection of my paper for
oral presentation in this international conference. Thanks also due to diverse agencies for
providing information for making available their numerous studies, reports and statistical data on
the subject.
Bibliography:
[1] John Hawksworth and Danny Chan, “The World in 2050” A report by PwC’s Economics and Policy (E&P)
team, February 2016, pp.5, 42,
[2] World Energy Council, “World Energy Trilemma Report – 2016”
[3] World Energy Council, “World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy future to 2050, 2013”
[4] “BP Energy Outlook”, 2016 edition, pp.8, 16
[5] “Growth of Electricity Sector India”, 1947-2015, CEA, Ministry of Power, April 2015, pp.22
[6] “Executive Summary, Power Sector, Monthly Report for the month of Apr and Oct 2016, CEA,
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on the Potential & Proposition of a Roadmap”, for MNRE, Dec 2014, pp.20
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[9] CSTEP, WFMS, SSEF (2016), “Re-assessment of India’s On-shore Wind Power Potential”, (CSTEP-Report-
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[12] FOWIND (2015), Offshore Tamil Nadu Pre-feasibility Report