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Do more beds bring in more guests?
STUDY

Austrian Hotel Association (ÖHV)



Vienna, January 2011
                                     1
The Austrian Hotel Association and Roland Berger have enjoyed a
successful partnership since 2005

Joint studies by the ÖHV and Roland Berger




2005              2007                   2008                 2009                2011

ÖHV Destination   Feasibility analysis   Austria looks to     Success factors     Do more beds
study VII –       for an "Austrian       Central and          and best practice   bring in more
Investment        tourism strategy –     Eastern Europe as    in destination      guests?
analysis          ÖTS
                  ÖTS"                   a promising source   management
                                         of tourism and
                                         hotel business




                                                                                                  2
Contents                                                                                                                                                            Page



A. Background – Austria has a successful tourism industry. Yet hotel room prices are
   below th
   b l   those of competitors in other countries
                f      tit    i th         ti                                        5

B. Challenge – The sector has developed into one offering top quality, which is
   currently leading to cutthroat competition                                                                                                                               18

C. Outlook and summary – Announced expansion programs are reinforcing these
   tendencies. Tourism budgets must be revisited                                                                                                                            32




This document was created for our client. The client is entitled to use it for its own internal purposes. It must not be p
                                                                                                p p                      passed on to third parties except with the explicit p
                                                                                                                                            p           p             p      prior
consent of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. This document is not complete unless supported by the underlying detailed analyses and oral presentation.




© 2011 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH                                                                                                                                       4
A.   Background
         g




                  5
2010 was another successful year for tourism in Austria – The
country continues to be one of the top destinations worldwide

Top 15 tourism destinations in the world – International arrivals
                                                                  World mkt.
Rank          2006       2007          2008      2009    20101)   share2) [%]   COMMENTS

   1          FRA        FRA           FRA       FRA     FRA          8.1       • Compared to other countries,
   2          ESP        ESP           USA       USA     USA          6.5         Austria continues to be one of the
   3          USA        USA           ESP       ESP     CHN          6.0
                                                                      60          most popular vacation
                                                                                        p p
                                                                                  destinations in the world. It
   4          CHN        CHN           CHN       CHN     ESP          5.6         attained its highest ranking (7th
   5          ITA        ITA           ITA       ITA     ITA          4.7         place) in 2003
   6          GBR        GBR           GBR       GBR     GBR          2.9
                                                                                • Even as other, larger countries
   7          DEU        DEU           DEU       TUR     GER          2.9         have surpassed Austria, the
   8          MEX        UKR           UKR       GER     TUR          2.9         country has retained its share of
   9          AUT        TUR           TUR       MYS3)   MYS3)        2.6         the world tourism market – about
                                                                                  2.3% – for five years, making it
  10          RUS        MEX           MEX       MEX     MEX          2.3
                                                                                  11th worldwide
  11          UKR        MYS3)         MYS3)     AUT     AUT          2.3
  12          TUR        AUT           AUT       UKR     UKR          2.2
  13          CAN        RUS           RUS       RUS     HKG          2.2
  14          MYS3)      CAN           CAN       HKG     RUS          2.1
                                                                      21
  15          GRC        HKG           HKG       CAN     CAN          1.7
1) Forecast     2) Current value   3) Malaysia

Source: UNWTO; Roland Berger                                                                                           6
For years, the tourism sector has constantly contributed over 15% to
GDP, generating over EUR 40 bn with approx. 180,000 employees

Value added by the tourism and leisure industry in Austria [EUR bn]

No. of                                                                                            COMMENTS
employees3)               168          169          180           179           1822)
['000]
                                                                                                  • The tourism sector has generated
Share of                                                                                            over EUR 40 bn for several years,
                         15.3          15.0         14.9          15.2          15.11)              making it one of Austria's most
                                                                                                          g
GDP [%]
                                                                                                    important industries

                                                   42.2           41.8           42.8             • In terms of FTEs, the tourism
                         39.2          40.7
                                                                                                    industry employs more than
                                                                                                    180,000 people. Due to the
                                                                                                    seasonal nature of tourism work,
                                                                                                    this number is at times much
                                                                                                    higher




                         2006          2007        2008           2009         20101)
                                                                                    )

1) Forecast
2) As at September 2010
3) Average employment over 365 days; yoy comparisons no longer possible starting in 2008 because of ÖNACE reorganization

Source: Statistics Austria; WKO; AMS                                                                                                    7
It's also encouraging that per capita spending by the most
important foreign visitors has increased faster than inflation

Development of daily per capita spending of visitors from Germany1) [EUR]
                                                          3.2                                      COMMENTS
                                          2.2
Inflation                  1.5
                                                                                        Avg. 1.9   • Austria continues to attract visitors
rate [%]                                                                 0.5                         with purchasing power
                                                                                                   • German tourists who make up
                                                                                                              tourists,
                                          CAGR +4.2%                                                 about half of all overnight stays in
                                                                                                     Austria by foreign visitors, spent
                                                                                                     EUR 120 per person per day in
                                                         120             120                         the 2008/2009 season
                          106             106
                                                                                                   • The rise in visitor spending
                                                                                                     considerably exceeds the average
                                                                                                     Austrian inflation rate
                                                                                                   • This phenomenon is connected to
                                                                                                          p
                                                                                                     shorter stays (2000: 5.2 days,
                                                                                                     2009: 4.6 days) – to experience
                                                                                                     more in this shorter amount of
                                                                                                     time, German visitors spend more
                                                                                                     money
                         2006            2007           2008            2009

1) Survey was conducted over the 2006/2007 and 2008/2009 winter holidays

Source: T-MONA guest survey with full-year data for 2006/2007 and 2008/2009; Statistics Austria                                              8
The euphoria is also reflected in the number of hotel beds – 16,000
beds are to be added over the next five years

Development of the no. of beds in hotels and similar accommodations1) – Austria ['000]

                                                                                                 COMMENTS

                                                                                                 • After bottoming out in 2003, the
650                                                                     CAGR +0.5%                 supply of beds in hotels and
                                                                                                   similar accommodations reached
                              CAGR 0%                                                              2000-levels again in 2009
                                                                                           606
                                                                                   600 603
                                                                         593 596                 • Starting in 2009, the number of
600     588 587                                                  588 590
                                                         580                                       beds is expected to increase by
                    569 566     571 571 573 574                                                    0.5% each year. In the coming five
                                                                                                   years, another 16,000 hotel beds
                                                                                                   are to be added
550
                                                                                                 • The forecast is based on
                                                                                                   announced and ongoing
                                                                                                   expansion plans plus regression
                                                                                                   analyses for 2000-2009
   0
        00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
                                           Forecast

1) Similar accommodations = pensiones, inns

Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; press research, Roland Berger                                                                          10
The success of Austrian tourism is recognized abroad – The WEF
named Austria the world's 2nd most attractive tourist destination

Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index, 2007-2009

                                                    Rank2)
                                                         )                           COMMENTS
                              No. of    points1)
          Country             2009                  2009             2008     2007
                                                                                     • The quality of Austrian tourism is
                                                                                       well-known abroad
          Switzerland                    5.68          1                  1    1
          Austria                        5.46          2                  2    2     • Since the Travel & Tourism
                                                                                       Competitiveness Index was
          Germany                        5.41          3                  3    3       launched in 2007, the World
          France                         5.34          4                 10   12       Economic Forum has consistently
                                                                                       named Austria as the world's
                                                                                                            world s
          Canada
          C   d                          5.32
                                           32          5                  9    7       second most attractive country
          Spain                          5.29          6                  5   15
                                                                                     • But the competition is stiff: direct
          Sweden                         5.28          7                  8   17       competitors such as Switzerland,
          USA                            5.24
                                         5 24          8                  7    5       Germany and Italy have held their
          Australia                      5.24          9                  4   13       positions unchallenged for years
          UK                             5.22        10                  16   10
          …                                           …                  …     …
          Italy                         4.78         28                  28   33
1) On a scale of 1 to 7 (7 = best, 1 = worst)   2) 133 countries analyzed

Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report                                                        11
Austria receives top marks for its tourism infrastructure, but
earned its worst rating in price competitiveness

Travel & tourism subindices – Austria, 2009
Rank1) Indicator                                                         No. of points       COMMENTS

   1      Tourism infrastructure                                                       7.0   • Taking a closer look at the various
   5      Health and hygiene                                                           6.9     indices, two in particular stand out:
   6      Safetyy                                                                     6.5
                                                                                               – In the "Tourism infrastructure"
                                                                                                         Tourism infrastructure
   9      Environmental sustainability                                              5.6          subindex, Austria is number
  10      Land transportation infrastructure                                         6.0         one in the world
  11      Cultural resources                                                        5.8        – Austria's worst showing was in
  14      Prioritizing of travel and tourism                                        5.6
                                                                                    56           the "P i
                                                                                                 th "Price competitiveness"
                                                                                                                   titi    "
  16      Education and training                                                    5.8          subindex
  18      Human capital                                                             5.7
  23      Affinity for travel and tourism                                          5.4
  23      Information + telecomm. tech. infrastructure                            4.8
  26      Air travel infrastructure                                              4.5
  28      Laws and regulations                                                    5.1
  40      Natural treasures                                                     4.1
 118      Price competitiveness                                                 3.8
1) Out of 133 countries

Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report                                                                 12
Regarding hotel coverage, Austria is in third place with 3.5 rooms
per 100 inhabitants – Behind Cyprus and Malta

Hotel coverage: No. of hotel rooms per 100 inhabitants, 2009

Tour
Tour-                                                                                                   COMMENTS
ism
sector's
share of 21.4 23.0 15.4 17.2 13.3 40.7 17.2                         9.7 12.0 12.6 8.6 10.9 9.2          • In terms of hotel
GDP                                                                                                       coverage, Austria is in
[%]                                                                                                       third place; only Cyprus
                                                                                                                p    ;    y yp
            5.6
            56                                                                                            and Malta, which have
                    4.9                                                                                   hardly any other
                                                                                                          economic sectors, offer
                                                                                                          more rooms
                            3.5
                            35      3.3                                                                 • To compare: Italy is in 8th
                                            2.8                                                           place with 1.8 rooms per
                                                    2.3                                                   100 inhabitants,
                                                            1.9     1.8   1.8   1.7                       Switzerland is 10th with
                                                                                      1.1
                                                                                      11    1.0   1.0     1.7
                                                                                                          1 7 rooms




           CYP MLT AUT GRC ISL BRB ESP ITA BGR CHE DEU FRA GBR


Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report                                                                  14
Competitors such as Switzerland and Italy achieve prices that are
26% higher for hotels of the same quality

Hotel price index for first-class, branded hotels –
Compared to countries neighboring Austria [USD]1), 2009
                                                                                                 COMMENTS
                                                                                 200.2   203.4
                  Difference:                                                                    • Austria's 69th place in the hotel
                         -26%                                  164.7     167.4                     price index puts it in the middle
                           149.4
                           149 4       149.7
                                       149 7       154.8                                           of the international comparison
                                                                                                                             p
              131.8                                                                              • Switzerland achieves an
                                                                                                   average price of USD 200.20
  104.8                                                                                            for a double room in a first-
                                                                                                   class hotel, Italy USD 203.40 –
                                                                                                   in Austria it's just USD 149.70

                                                                                                 • These results are especially
                                                                                                   striking, considering that
                                                                                                   Switzerland and Italy were
                                                                                                   rated worse than Austria in
                                                                                                   terms of their tourism
                                                                                                   infrastructure (7th and 3rd
Slovenia Germany Hungary Austria Croatia                       Czech Slovakia Switzer-   Italy     place, respectively)
                                                                Rep.           land

1) Avg. gross price per double room in first-class, branded hotels

Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report                                                                 16
B.   Challenge
            g




                 18
Over the past ten years, the number of beds in Austria's top quality
accommodations has risen sharply

Development in the no. of hotel beds ['000]

                                                                                                      COMMENTS
280                                                                                 269
                                                                              264
                                                                                          5-/4-star
260                                                                     252                           • Quality lodgings (5- and 4-star
                                                                  247
                                                            242                                         accommodations) in particular
240 232 232                                           231                                               have seen massive growth in the
                                                                                                                             g
                  224
                        220 220 218 218 221
                                                                                                        number of beds – over 30% in the
220                                                                                       3-star        last ten years. Further growth of
                                                                    219 220                             9% is forecast for 2010-2013
                                            215 215 216 216 217 218
200         189 191                  209
      184                      204                                                                    • The number of beds in
                        197                                                                             3-star accommodations has
180
                                                                                                        decreased slightly (by 7%), while
                                                                                                        the supply in 2- and 1-star
160 172 167 154 149
                    146 144                                                                             lodgings has gone down by 25%
                                            140 138
140                                                   133 130                                         • The forecast for 2010-2013 is
                                                                  126
                                                                        123                             based on announced and existing
120                                                                           113 111
                                                                                                        expansion plans
                                                                                          2-/1-star
100
      '00 '01 '02 '03           '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '101) '111) '121) '131)
1) Forecast

Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; Roland Berger                                                                                              19
For years, the number of overnight stays increased faster than the
number of beds – Now both values are converging again

Supply and demand in 5- and 4-star accommodations [Basis = 2000, %]

                                                                                 COMMENTS
140
                                                                                 • Over the past few years, the
                                                                                   number of overnight stays in 5-
130                                                                                and 4-star accommodations
                                                                                   outstripped the number of beds
                                                                                   available by up to ten percentage
120                                                                                points ("demand-supported
                                                                                   growth")

110                                                                              • But in the last two years, the
                                                                                   curves have once again
                                          Demand-supported          Stagnation     converged ("stagnation")
                                              growth
100


  0
        2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


       Supply: number of available beds      Demand: number of overnight stays


Source: Statistics Austria                                                                                             21
Urban accommodations are especially affected – Vacation
accommodations have developed more strongly

Beds available vs. no. of overnight stays in 5-/4-star accommodations in cities1) and in
vacation destinations [Basis = 2000, %]
Urban accommodations                                     Vacation accommodations                          COMMENTS

150                                                      150                                              • Despite the massive
                                                                                                            increase in the number
140                                                      140
                                                                                                            of beds, vacation
                                                                                                            accommodations have
                                                                                                            developed more
130                                                      130                                                strongly over the past
                                                                                                            decade
120                                                      120
                                                                                                          • In the cities, the picture
110                                                                                                         is somewhat different:
                                                         110
                                                                                                            whereas the supply of
                                                                                                            beds increased slowly
100                                                      100                                                but surely, demand
                                                                                                            collapsed in 2008/2009
  0                                                         0
       '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09                  '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

       Supply: no. of available beds       Demand: no. of overnight stays
1) Defined as accommodations in the state capitals

Source: Statistics Austria; tourmis                                                                                                      22
Only in about 20% of all Austrian destinations did the supply of
beds decline or stagnate

Supply of beds in 5-/4-star accommodations by destination, 2004-2008
COMMENTS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Waldviertel
• 80% of all Austrian destinations increased                                                                                                                                                                       Donau OÖ                                                                                                                  Weinviertel


  their supply of beds                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mühlviertel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Donau NÖ

• In roughly 20% of all Austrian destinations, the
  number of beds has stagnated or declined                                                                                                                                                            Inn- and
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Hausruckviertler
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Linz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Wien
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Donau NÖ

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Thermenland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Wienerwald
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mostviertel                                                               Neusiedler See

                                                                                                                                                                                  Salzburger
                                                                                                                                                                                  Seenland                                                     Nationalpark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Region
                                                                                                                                                                  city Salzburg
                                                                                                                                                                and environment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Vienna Alpen
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Salzkammergut                                                                                                       in NÖ
                                                                                                            Alpbachtal and
                                                                                                                Tiroler                    Kaiser-
                                                                                                                                                            Salzburger
                                                           Ferienregion                                        Seenland Ferienland          winkl
                                                                                                                                                            Saalachtal
                                                                                                                                                                                     Tennen-
                                                                                                                           Kufstein                                                    gau                                                            Schladming
                                                             Reutte                                                                                                                                                                                    Dachstein
                                                                                        Silberregion                                                                                                                                                                                 Hochsteiermark
                                                                                        Karwendel                                     Wilder                                                   Lammertal,
                                       Tannheimertal                                                      Achensee                                       Piller-
                               Klein-                                                                                                 Kaiser                                       Tennen-      Dachstein
                Bregenzer-                                                                                                                               seetal
                              walsertal                    Tiroler Zugspitz                                                                                                        gebirge
                   wald                                                                                                                                      Saalfelden/                                    Ramsau
                                                                Arena                                                        Wild-      Kitzbüheler           Leogang Hochkönig's                                         Schladming-
                                                                   Mieminger             Seefeld                           schönau         Alpen     Saalbach
   Bodensee                                                                                                                                                              Bergreich                                          Dachstein
                                                                    Plateau                                                    Ferienregion         Hinterglemm                                                Schladming-                                                                                                               Thermenwelt
   Vorarlberg                             Lechtal                                                                                                                              Sonnen-      Salzburger                                                                                                           Oststeiermark
                                                         Imst-                                                                  Hohe Salve                                                                      pipemoos                                                                                                                  Burgenland
                                                                                                                                                              Zell am See       terasse      Sportwelt
                                                        Gurgltal           Tirol Mitte
                                                                                                                                         Ferienregion           – Kaprun                                 Ober-
         Alpenregion                          Tirol                             Innsbruck +            Region                            Nationalpark                                  Groß-            tauern
           Bludenz                            West                                 seine                Hall                             Hohe Tauern               Ferienregion                                                                   Urlaubsregion Murtal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           g
                                                                                                                     Zillertal                                                           arl-
                                                                                                                                                                                           l
                                                                               Feriendörfer                                                                       Nationalpark
                             Arlberg                                                                                                                                                     tal                                                                                                        Graz and
                                          Serfaus,                                                                                                                Hohe Tauern                                  Ferienregion                                                                        Region Graz
                                           Fiss,                                 Stubaital     Wipptal                                                                           Gasteiner-                       Lungau
                  Montafon        Paznaun                                                                                                                                            tal
                                           Ladis
                                                               Pitz-                                                                                                                                   Katschberg
                                                     Tiroler    tal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Steirisches
                                                    Oberland                                                                                                                 Nationalpark                                                                                                                            Thermenland
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lieser-
                                                                                                                                                     Osttirol                Region Hohe                Maltatal
                                                                                                                                                                               Tauern                                        Nockberge,                                  Lavanttal
                                                                       Ötztal                                                                                                 Carinthia                                   Bad Kleinkirchheim
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Süd- and West Styria
                                                                                                                                                                                  Oberes Drautal       Millstätter-
                                                                                                                                                                                                           see

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Villach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Villach-
                                                                                                                                                                                       Carinthias                      Warmbad,               Klagenfurt
                                                                                                                                                                                       Naturarena                     Faaker See, Wörthersee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ossiacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         See                             Klopeiner See –
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Carnica-Region       Südkärnten
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Rosental



Increase in beds                                        >25%                                  0-25%                             <0%                                No comparison data available

Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; Roland Berger                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  23
As one would expect, the increase in the supply of beds meant that
the occupancy rate continuously declined

Supply of beds vs. occupancy in 5-/4-star accommodations [Basis = 2000, %]

                                                                                             COMMENTS
                                                                                   Beds
    Avg.                                                                           ['000]
55%                                                                                    250
                                                                                             • Over the past
                                                                                               decade, the supply of
                                                                                               beds rose more than
                                                                                       200     30% and is about to
                                                                                               pass 250,000
50%
                                                                                       150   • At the same time, the
                                                                                               occupancy rate in
                                                                                       100     quality accommo-
45%                                                                                            dations is declining
                                                                                               steadily
                                                                                       50


40%                                                                                    0
           2000       2001     2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009




       Occupancy             Beds


Source: Statistics Austria                                                                                             24
Over a third of Austrian tourist destinations achieved less than 45%
capacity utilization in the prosperous year of 2008

Annual capacity utilization in 5-/4-star accommodations by destination, 2008 [%]
COMMENTS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Waldviertel

• Even in a prosperous year like 2008, over a third                                                                                                                                                             Donau OÖ                                                                                                                        Weinviertel


  of Austria's tourism destinations reached an                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mühlviertel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Donau NÖ

  annual capacity utilization of just 45% maximum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Linz
• Capacit utilization is not calculated based on
  Capacity tili ation        calc lated                                                                                                                                                                  Inn- and
                                                                                                                                                                                                         I      d
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hausruckviertler
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Thermenland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wien
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Donau NÖ




  days open but rather on full-year capacity                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Wienerwald
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Neusiedler
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mostviertel                                                                  See
                                                                                                                                                                                    Salzburger
                                                                                                                                                                                    Seenland                                                      Nationalpark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Region
                                                                                                                                                                         city Salzburg
                                                                                                                                                                       and environment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Vienna Alpen
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Salzkammergut                                                                                                       in NÖ
                                                                                                             Alpbachtal and
                                                                                                                 Tiroler                    Kaiser-              Salzburger
                                                                                                                Seenland                     winkl               Saalachtal              Tennen-
                                                          Ferienregion                                                     Ferienland                                                      gau                                                           Schladming
                                                            Reutte                       Silberregion                       Kufstein                                                                                                                      Dachstein                     Hochsteiermark
                                                                                         Karwendel                                      Wilder                                                     Lammertal,
                                        Tannheimertal                                                      Achensee                                       Piller-
                                                                                                                                        Kaiser                                       Tennen-        Dachstein
                Bregenzer-                                                                                                                                seetal
                                                        Tiroler Zugspitz                                                                                       Saalfelden/           gebirge
                   wald                                                                                                      Wild-                                                                           Ramsau
                             Klein-                          Arena                                                                       Kitzbüheler             Leogang
                                                                                                                           schönau                                        Hochkönig's                                     Schladming-
                             walser-                                                     Seefeld                                            Alpen     Saalbach
   Bodensee                                                                                                                                                                Bergreich                                        Dachstein
                               tal                               Mieminger                                                      Ferienregion         Hinterglemm                                                                                                                                                                            Thermenwelt
   Vorarlberg                             Lechtal                                                                                                                               Sonnen-      Salzburger                                                                                                             Oststeiermark
                                                         Imst-    Plateau                                                       Hohe Salve                                                                                                                                                                                                   Burgenland
                                                                                                                                                                                 terasse      Sportwelt
                                                        Gurgltal        Tirolmitte                                                                             Zell am See
                                                                                                                                          Ferienregion                                                   Ober- Schladming-
         Alpenregion                          Tirol                                                                                                              – Kaprun
                                                                                                        Region                            Nationalpark                                  Groß-           tauern   pipemoos
           Bludenz                            West                              Innsbruck + seine        Hall                             Hohe Tauern               Ferienregion                                                                     Urlaubsregion Murtal
                                                                                                                      Zillertal                                                           arl-
                                                                                   Feriendörfer                                                                    Nationalpark           tal
                              Arlberg                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Graz and
                                           Serfaus,                                                                                                                Hohe Tauern                                 Ferienregion                                                                           Region Graz
                                            Fiss,                                 Stubaital     Wipptal                                                                           Gasteiner-                      Lungau
                  Montafon         Paznaun                                                                                                                                            tal
                                            Ladis                                                                                                                                                        Katschberg
                                                               Pitz-
                                                     Tiroler    tal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Steirisches
                                                    Oberland                                                                                                                   Nationalpark
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Lieser-                                                                                                      Thermenland
                                                                                                                                                                               Region Hohe
                                                                                                                                                      Osttirol                   Tauern                    Maltatal                                                         Lavanttal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nockberge,
                                                                       Ötztal                                                                                                   Carinthia                                    Bad Kleinkirchheim
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Süd- and West Styria
                                                                                                                                                                                   Oberes Drautal         Milstätter-
                                                                                                                                                                                                             see

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Villach-
                                                                                                                                                                                          Carinthias
                                                                                                                                                                                          C i hi                          Warmbad,               Klagenfurt
                                                                                                                                                                                          Naturarena                     Faaker See, Wörthersee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ossiacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            See                             Klopeiner See –
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Carnica-Region       Südkärnten
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Rosental



Capacity utilization                                             >55%                               55-45%                                   <45%

Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; Roland Berger                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25
At the same time, some areas are seeing a downward price spiral –
Prices are often below those of 2009

Average yoy price development1) for 2010/2009, standard double room
5-/4-star accommodations in selected cities [%, Basis=2009]

                                                                                          COMMENTS
   Vienna: 5-star hotels                                                   5%
   Vienna: 4-star hotels                               -2%                                • The travel and booking platforms
   Innsbruck: 5-star hotels
              5 star                                                            7%          make it possible to compare offers
                                                                                            and create price transparency
   Innsbruck: 4-star hotels                                      0%
                                                                                          • Compared to 2009, the prices in
   Linz: 4-star hotels             -10%                                                     2010 have often not reached the
   Salzburg: 5 t hotels
   S l b     5-star h t l                                                            9%     previous year s level Especially 4-
                                                                                                      year's level.
                                                                                            star accommodations were hit by
   Salzburg: 4-star hotels                                            2%                    cutthroat competition
   Graz: 5-star hotels                 -9%
   Graz: 4-star hotels
   G     4 t h t l                                   -3%
                                                      3%
   Klagenfurt: 5-star hotels                         -3%
   Klagenfurt: 4-star hotels                  -6%
   Bregenz: 4-star hotels
   B        4 t h t l                                  -2%
                                                        2%

1) Average values from January to November, as far as data was available

Source: Trivago; Roland Berger                                                                                                    26
The risk to a company's existence is evaluated based on two
criteria: debt repayment period and equity ratio

Excerpts from the Austrian Reorganization Act


           According to the Reorganization Act (Unternehmensreorganisationsgesetz,
           or URG), there are two criteria that determine whether a company is in
           jeopardy:
     1     The debt repayment period is over 15 years



     2     The equity ratio is below 8%




Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank                                     28
Half of the hotels supported by Österreichische Hotel- und
Tourismusbank (ÖHT) have repayment periods that are too long

Selected operating KPIs of 5-/4-star accommodations1), 2009

Debt repayment period                                                                                   COMMENTS

                                                                    Hotel operations                    • More than half of the hotels
        >25                                   0-8                    analyzed [no.]                       supported by the ÖHT do not
        years                                 years                                                       meet the URG criterion f
                                                                                                              t th         it i for
                25%                     25%                                                               debt repayment period
                                                                             267
                                                                                                        • A quarter of hotel operations
                                                                                                          have repayment periods
                                                                                                          h               t    i d
                                                                                                          longer than 25 years

                25%                     25%
        16-25                                 8-16
        years                                 years




1) Dividing the hotels into groups of 25% each was done by calculating medians and quartiles, i.e. the boundaries of the individual categories were
   set up in such a way that the hotel businesses could be divided equally into quarters

Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank                                                                                                      29
In many cases, the required equity ratio of over 8% is also not met


Selected operating KPIs of 5-/4-star accommodations1), 2009

Equity ratio                                                                                            COMMENTS

                                                                    Hotel operations                    • The situation here is also
                                                                     analyzed [no.]                       quite dramatic:
           >26                                <-16%
                 25%                    25%                                                                 – Over 50% of the hotels
                                                                             267                              supported by the ÖHT
                                                                                                              have an equity ratio of less
                                                                                                              than
                                                                                                              th 8%

                                                                                                            – In many cases, the ratio is
                 25%                    25%                                                                   even negative
       7-26%                                  -16 to 7%




1) Dividing the hotels into groups of 25% each was done by calculating medians and quartiles, i.e. the boundaries of the individual categories were
   set up in such a way that the hotel businesses could be divided equally into quarters

Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank                                                                                                      30
C.   Outlook and summary
                       y




                           32
The supply-side situation will become even more critical


   Correlation of capacity utilization to no. of new beds in 5-/4-star accommodations
Capacity utilization, 2008
          [%]                                                                                                              COMMENTS
      75%
                                                      Salzburger Saalachtal
      70%
                                                                                                                           • Over the next three years, hotels
                                                      Kleinwalsertal                                                         will add another 11,000 beds in
                                           Achensee
      65%        Serfaus - Fiss - Ladis                                                                                      over 20 destinations
                                                                        Kaiserwinkl
      60%                                                                                                                  • In roughly half of the destinations
                                                                       Pillerseetal
                     Innsbruck und seine Feriendörfer
      55%                                                                                                   Wien             planning to expand capacity, the
                                          Zell am See/Kaprun      Thermenwelt Bgl.                                           rate of capacity utilization is
      50%                                       Bodensee Vbg                                                                 already less than 50%
                                                                                      Lammertal,
                                                                                      L      t l
                                                                        Stadt         Dachstein    Osttirol Wiener Alpen
      45%                                         Donau NÖ              Salzburg
                                                                                                               in NÖ
                                                      Montafon
      40%                                                  Salzkammergut (OÖ, S, ST)

                Nationalparkregion
      35%                                                Mostviertel

      30%
                    Salzburger Seenland
      25%

      20%
            0      50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 1,800 4,000
                                               No. of new beds by 2013 [no.]

   Source: ÖHV; Roland Berger                                                                                                                                      33
In this case, supply and demand will continue to diverge


Expected dvlpmt. of supply and demand, 5-/4-star accommodations [2000 = Basis, %]

                                                                                            COMMENTS
                                                                         129
130
                                                                               Supply
                                                                   126                      • If the number of beds continues to
                                                                                              increase at its current rate,
125
                                                       121
                                                             123
                                                                                        !     capacity utilization will become
                                                                                                  p   y
                                                                                              even worse over the next five
120                                                                            Demand         years – Supply and demand will
                                                 116                     120                  diverge further
115                                      113                       117
                                111                          115                            • In addition, the World Economic
                        109                                                                   Forum expects even shorter stays,
110                                                    112                                    later bookings and a preference
                          106                    109                                          for lower prices in Austria
                104
105                             107      107
        100
100
                101
        100

  0
       2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Assuming 365 days open a year

Source: Statistics Austria; WEF; Roland Berger                                                                                     34
The increase in overnight stays by foreign visitors is primarily due
to tourists from Eastern European countries

No. of overnight stays in Austria by country of origin, 2009 [m]
Change 2005-2009 [%]
                                                                                                                   COMMENTS
  -4%      +9%      +4%      -9%       -3%      +6% +73% +4% +30% +16% +69% -20% +83% +265% +13%

                                                                                                                   • The number of
 48.9
                                                                                                                     visitors from
                                                                                                                     Eastern European
                                                                                                                                   p
                                                                                                                     countries,
                                                                                                                     especially Russia
                                                                                                                     and Romania, has
                                                                                                                     risen
            9.5
                                                                                                             8.1   • However, the
                                                                                                                     impressive three-
                                                                                                                     digit growth from
                     3.6      3.3                                                                                    Romania and the
                                       3.0       2.5      2.0
                                                          20       1.6   1.5   1.5                                   two-digit
                                                                                                                     two digit growth
                                                                                     1.4   1.1   1.0   0.8           from Russia repre-
                                                                                                                     sent a change
 DEU      NLD       CHE      GBR       ITA      BEL      CZE      FRA    DNK   HUN   POL   USA   RUS   ROU Other
                                                                                                                     from a low
                                                                                                                     absolute basis




Source: Statistics Austria, data for 2010 will be available in January                                                                    36
Foreign markets could boost capacity utilization in first-class
accommodations

Development of overnight stays by domestic/foreign visitors in Austria [m]

                                                                                                          COMMENTS

                                                                                                          • Since the start of 2000, but also in
                                                                                         92.8               the 2009 crisis, the domestic
                                                           87.7      87.2      88.4                89.8
                             85.8      86.3      85.9                                                       market has remained constant
    82.5
    82 5       83.7
               83 7
                                                                                                            and stable

                                                                                                          • During the crisis in 2009, the
                                                                                                            foreign market dropped
                                                                                                            precipitously

                                                                                                          • There is still a need to catch up on
                                                                  32.1      33.0      33.9      34.4        the foreign markets, since they
31.2       31.4       31.0          31.6      31.2      31.5
                                                                                                            offer the necessary growth
                                                                                                            potential and volumes



  2000       2001       2002          2003      2004      2005      2006      2007      2008      2009

    Domestic
    Foreign

Source: Statistics Austria                                                                                                                         37
It is doubtful whether the Austrian National Tourist Office's current
budget is sufficient to reach more foreign visitors

Budgets of national tourism organizations per overnight stay, 2009 [EUR]

                                                               COMMENTS
    1.50
                                                               • At first glance, Austria is
                                                                 somewhere in the midfield in
                                                                 terms of what national tourism
                                                                 organizations spend on marketing
                                                                 per overnight stay

                                                               • However, smaller countries such
                                                                 as Switzerland and Austria
                 0.42                                            naturally have to spend more per
                                                                 overnight stay in order to create a
                              0.30
                                                                 presence on the international
                                      0.11     0.10              tourism market
                                                        0.07
                                                               • For this reason, it makes sense to
                                                                 compare Austria with Switzerland
                                                                 – the latter's marketing budget per
Switzer-       Austria       France   Italy   Germany   UK       overnight stay is over three times
 land                                                            higher than Austria's
                                                                 hi h th A t i '



Source: ÖHV; Roland Berger                                                                             38
Austria's tourism organization has a medium number of offices –
compared to Switzerland it is even underrepresented

Offices of national tourism organizations, 2009 [no.]

                                                              COMMENTS
                                    27
                             26
                                              25
                                                              • As one would expect, large
      21                                                        countries such as France and the
                                                       19       UK have the most tourism offices

                                                              • But it is also clear that Germany
                                                                and Italy have significantly fewer
                                                                offices than Austria and
                      11                                        Switzerland

                                                              • Compared with Switzerland, a
                                                                similarly small country, Austria is
                                                                underrepresented by its 21 offices
                                                                worldwide



  Austria        Germany     UK   France   Switzer-   Italy
                                            land



Source: ÖHV; Roland Berger                                                                            39
Increasing the Austrian Tourist Office's budget would relieve
hotels and make more targeted advertising possible

Development of advertising budgets1) [2000 = Basis; %]
                                                                                 Owner's contribu-         COMMENTS
                                                                                   tion to adver-
                                                                                  tising [EUR m]
130%                                                                                                       • The Austrian Tourist Office's
                                                                         123%                                budget shrank in 2000 and
                                                                                         202.7
120%                                          116%                                                           2001, and then remained
                                                                                                                 ,
                                          %
                                       113%                                                                  constant for eight years
                        111%
                               107%                  108% 107%
110%                                                           106%
                103%                                                                                       • In contrast, hotels today spend
         100%
100%
                                                                                                             about 23% more on adver-
                                                                                                             tising than they did in 2000
 90%                                                                                                       • Austria neglected to increase
                 83%
                                                                                                             the Tourist Office's funds when
 80%                     76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76%                                                     the economy was good,
                                                                                          32.1               despite increasing bed
                                                                                                                 p             g
 70%                                                                                                         capacity
                                                                                                           • The Economic Chamber
 60%                                                                                                         cancelled the contract with the
         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009                                                   Austrian TO for contributions
       Spending on advertising and communication, in % of income of 5-/4-star accommodations (median)        to th d ti i budget
                                                                                                             t the advertising b d t
       Austrian Tourist Office's budget
Note: No data available on the development of the tourism budgets of state tourism organizations   1) Not adjusted for inflation

Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank                                                                                               40
Summary and recommendations



  1 Austria continues to be a successful tourist destination and is recognized as such abroad

  2 The hotel sector has developed toward offering high-quality products and services, in turn
     leading to cutthroat competition in the top-quality segment
  3 The resulting price decline affects the ability to guarantee the necessary quality and threatens
     the economic viability of the domestic hotel industry in the medium term
  4 The announced expansion programs will reinforce these tendencies and further depress
     capacity utilization
  5 Foreign markets in particular could generate enough capacity utilization for the increased
     number of beds. However, compared to other countries, Austria's National Tourism Office is
     underfunded, while hotels have significantly increased their own advertising budgets

  More beds, therefore, do not necessarily result in more guests. For this reason,
     decision makers must focus more on foreign markets, since that's where the
     purchasing power is. This would go a long way toward utilizing existing and future
     capacity while fi
           it  hil financially supporting the domestic hotel industry
                         i ll        ti th d       ti h t l i d t


                                                                                                       41

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Do more beds bring in more guests

  • 1. Do more beds bring in more guests? STUDY Austrian Hotel Association (ÖHV) Vienna, January 2011 1
  • 2. The Austrian Hotel Association and Roland Berger have enjoyed a successful partnership since 2005 Joint studies by the ÖHV and Roland Berger 2005 2007 2008 2009 2011 ÖHV Destination Feasibility analysis Austria looks to Success factors Do more beds study VII – for an "Austrian Central and and best practice bring in more Investment tourism strategy – Eastern Europe as in destination guests? analysis ÖTS ÖTS" a promising source management of tourism and hotel business 2
  • 3. Contents Page A. Background – Austria has a successful tourism industry. Yet hotel room prices are below th b l those of competitors in other countries f tit i th ti 5 B. Challenge – The sector has developed into one offering top quality, which is currently leading to cutthroat competition 18 C. Outlook and summary – Announced expansion programs are reinforcing these tendencies. Tourism budgets must be revisited 32 This document was created for our client. The client is entitled to use it for its own internal purposes. It must not be p p p passed on to third parties except with the explicit p p p p prior consent of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. This document is not complete unless supported by the underlying detailed analyses and oral presentation. © 2011 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH 4
  • 4. A. Background g 5
  • 5. 2010 was another successful year for tourism in Austria – The country continues to be one of the top destinations worldwide Top 15 tourism destinations in the world – International arrivals World mkt. Rank 2006 2007 2008 2009 20101) share2) [%] COMMENTS 1 FRA FRA FRA FRA FRA 8.1 • Compared to other countries, 2 ESP ESP USA USA USA 6.5 Austria continues to be one of the 3 USA USA ESP ESP CHN 6.0 60 most popular vacation p p destinations in the world. It 4 CHN CHN CHN CHN ESP 5.6 attained its highest ranking (7th 5 ITA ITA ITA ITA ITA 4.7 place) in 2003 6 GBR GBR GBR GBR GBR 2.9 • Even as other, larger countries 7 DEU DEU DEU TUR GER 2.9 have surpassed Austria, the 8 MEX UKR UKR GER TUR 2.9 country has retained its share of 9 AUT TUR TUR MYS3) MYS3) 2.6 the world tourism market – about 2.3% – for five years, making it 10 RUS MEX MEX MEX MEX 2.3 11th worldwide 11 UKR MYS3) MYS3) AUT AUT 2.3 12 TUR AUT AUT UKR UKR 2.2 13 CAN RUS RUS RUS HKG 2.2 14 MYS3) CAN CAN HKG RUS 2.1 21 15 GRC HKG HKG CAN CAN 1.7 1) Forecast 2) Current value 3) Malaysia Source: UNWTO; Roland Berger 6
  • 6. For years, the tourism sector has constantly contributed over 15% to GDP, generating over EUR 40 bn with approx. 180,000 employees Value added by the tourism and leisure industry in Austria [EUR bn] No. of COMMENTS employees3) 168 169 180 179 1822) ['000] • The tourism sector has generated Share of over EUR 40 bn for several years, 15.3 15.0 14.9 15.2 15.11) making it one of Austria's most g GDP [%] important industries 42.2 41.8 42.8 • In terms of FTEs, the tourism 39.2 40.7 industry employs more than 180,000 people. Due to the seasonal nature of tourism work, this number is at times much higher 2006 2007 2008 2009 20101) ) 1) Forecast 2) As at September 2010 3) Average employment over 365 days; yoy comparisons no longer possible starting in 2008 because of ÖNACE reorganization Source: Statistics Austria; WKO; AMS 7
  • 7. It's also encouraging that per capita spending by the most important foreign visitors has increased faster than inflation Development of daily per capita spending of visitors from Germany1) [EUR] 3.2 COMMENTS 2.2 Inflation 1.5 Avg. 1.9 • Austria continues to attract visitors rate [%] 0.5 with purchasing power • German tourists who make up tourists, CAGR +4.2% about half of all overnight stays in Austria by foreign visitors, spent EUR 120 per person per day in 120 120 the 2008/2009 season 106 106 • The rise in visitor spending considerably exceeds the average Austrian inflation rate • This phenomenon is connected to p shorter stays (2000: 5.2 days, 2009: 4.6 days) – to experience more in this shorter amount of time, German visitors spend more money 2006 2007 2008 2009 1) Survey was conducted over the 2006/2007 and 2008/2009 winter holidays Source: T-MONA guest survey with full-year data for 2006/2007 and 2008/2009; Statistics Austria 8
  • 8. The euphoria is also reflected in the number of hotel beds – 16,000 beds are to be added over the next five years Development of the no. of beds in hotels and similar accommodations1) – Austria ['000] COMMENTS • After bottoming out in 2003, the 650 CAGR +0.5% supply of beds in hotels and similar accommodations reached CAGR 0% 2000-levels again in 2009 606 600 603 593 596 • Starting in 2009, the number of 600 588 587 588 590 580 beds is expected to increase by 569 566 571 571 573 574 0.5% each year. In the coming five years, another 16,000 hotel beds are to be added 550 • The forecast is based on announced and ongoing expansion plans plus regression analyses for 2000-2009 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Forecast 1) Similar accommodations = pensiones, inns Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; press research, Roland Berger 10
  • 9. The success of Austrian tourism is recognized abroad – The WEF named Austria the world's 2nd most attractive tourist destination Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index, 2007-2009 Rank2) ) COMMENTS No. of points1) Country 2009 2009 2008 2007 • The quality of Austrian tourism is well-known abroad Switzerland 5.68 1 1 1 Austria 5.46 2 2 2 • Since the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index was Germany 5.41 3 3 3 launched in 2007, the World France 5.34 4 10 12 Economic Forum has consistently named Austria as the world's world s Canada C d 5.32 32 5 9 7 second most attractive country Spain 5.29 6 5 15 • But the competition is stiff: direct Sweden 5.28 7 8 17 competitors such as Switzerland, USA 5.24 5 24 8 7 5 Germany and Italy have held their Australia 5.24 9 4 13 positions unchallenged for years UK 5.22 10 16 10 … … … … Italy 4.78 28 28 33 1) On a scale of 1 to 7 (7 = best, 1 = worst) 2) 133 countries analyzed Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 11
  • 10. Austria receives top marks for its tourism infrastructure, but earned its worst rating in price competitiveness Travel & tourism subindices – Austria, 2009 Rank1) Indicator No. of points COMMENTS 1 Tourism infrastructure 7.0 • Taking a closer look at the various 5 Health and hygiene 6.9 indices, two in particular stand out: 6 Safetyy 6.5 – In the "Tourism infrastructure" Tourism infrastructure 9 Environmental sustainability 5.6 subindex, Austria is number 10 Land transportation infrastructure 6.0 one in the world 11 Cultural resources 5.8 – Austria's worst showing was in 14 Prioritizing of travel and tourism 5.6 56 the "P i th "Price competitiveness" titi " 16 Education and training 5.8 subindex 18 Human capital 5.7 23 Affinity for travel and tourism 5.4 23 Information + telecomm. tech. infrastructure 4.8 26 Air travel infrastructure 4.5 28 Laws and regulations 5.1 40 Natural treasures 4.1 118 Price competitiveness 3.8 1) Out of 133 countries Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 12
  • 11. Regarding hotel coverage, Austria is in third place with 3.5 rooms per 100 inhabitants – Behind Cyprus and Malta Hotel coverage: No. of hotel rooms per 100 inhabitants, 2009 Tour Tour- COMMENTS ism sector's share of 21.4 23.0 15.4 17.2 13.3 40.7 17.2 9.7 12.0 12.6 8.6 10.9 9.2 • In terms of hotel GDP coverage, Austria is in [%] third place; only Cyprus p ; y yp 5.6 56 and Malta, which have 4.9 hardly any other economic sectors, offer more rooms 3.5 35 3.3 • To compare: Italy is in 8th 2.8 place with 1.8 rooms per 2.3 100 inhabitants, 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 Switzerland is 10th with 1.1 11 1.0 1.0 1.7 1 7 rooms CYP MLT AUT GRC ISL BRB ESP ITA BGR CHE DEU FRA GBR Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 14
  • 12. Competitors such as Switzerland and Italy achieve prices that are 26% higher for hotels of the same quality Hotel price index for first-class, branded hotels – Compared to countries neighboring Austria [USD]1), 2009 COMMENTS 200.2 203.4 Difference: • Austria's 69th place in the hotel -26% 164.7 167.4 price index puts it in the middle 149.4 149 4 149.7 149 7 154.8 of the international comparison p 131.8 • Switzerland achieves an average price of USD 200.20 104.8 for a double room in a first- class hotel, Italy USD 203.40 – in Austria it's just USD 149.70 • These results are especially striking, considering that Switzerland and Italy were rated worse than Austria in terms of their tourism infrastructure (7th and 3rd Slovenia Germany Hungary Austria Croatia Czech Slovakia Switzer- Italy place, respectively) Rep. land 1) Avg. gross price per double room in first-class, branded hotels Source: World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 16
  • 13. B. Challenge g 18
  • 14. Over the past ten years, the number of beds in Austria's top quality accommodations has risen sharply Development in the no. of hotel beds ['000] COMMENTS 280 269 264 5-/4-star 260 252 • Quality lodgings (5- and 4-star 247 242 accommodations) in particular 240 232 232 231 have seen massive growth in the g 224 220 220 218 218 221 number of beds – over 30% in the 220 3-star last ten years. Further growth of 219 220 9% is forecast for 2010-2013 215 215 216 216 217 218 200 189 191 209 184 204 • The number of beds in 197 3-star accommodations has 180 decreased slightly (by 7%), while the supply in 2- and 1-star 160 172 167 154 149 146 144 lodgings has gone down by 25% 140 138 140 133 130 • The forecast for 2010-2013 is 126 123 based on announced and existing 120 113 111 expansion plans 2-/1-star 100 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '101) '111) '121) '131) 1) Forecast Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; Roland Berger 19
  • 15. For years, the number of overnight stays increased faster than the number of beds – Now both values are converging again Supply and demand in 5- and 4-star accommodations [Basis = 2000, %] COMMENTS 140 • Over the past few years, the number of overnight stays in 5- 130 and 4-star accommodations outstripped the number of beds available by up to ten percentage 120 points ("demand-supported growth") 110 • But in the last two years, the curves have once again Demand-supported Stagnation converged ("stagnation") growth 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Supply: number of available beds Demand: number of overnight stays Source: Statistics Austria 21
  • 16. Urban accommodations are especially affected – Vacation accommodations have developed more strongly Beds available vs. no. of overnight stays in 5-/4-star accommodations in cities1) and in vacation destinations [Basis = 2000, %] Urban accommodations Vacation accommodations COMMENTS 150 150 • Despite the massive increase in the number 140 140 of beds, vacation accommodations have developed more 130 130 strongly over the past decade 120 120 • In the cities, the picture 110 is somewhat different: 110 whereas the supply of beds increased slowly 100 100 but surely, demand collapsed in 2008/2009 0 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Supply: no. of available beds Demand: no. of overnight stays 1) Defined as accommodations in the state capitals Source: Statistics Austria; tourmis 22
  • 17. Only in about 20% of all Austrian destinations did the supply of beds decline or stagnate Supply of beds in 5-/4-star accommodations by destination, 2004-2008 COMMENTS Waldviertel • 80% of all Austrian destinations increased Donau OÖ Weinviertel their supply of beds Mühlviertel Donau NÖ • In roughly 20% of all Austrian destinations, the number of beds has stagnated or declined Inn- and Hausruckviertler Linz Wien Donau NÖ Thermenland Wienerwald Mostviertel Neusiedler See Salzburger Seenland Nationalpark Region city Salzburg and environment Vienna Alpen Salzkammergut in NÖ Alpbachtal and Tiroler Kaiser- Salzburger Ferienregion Seenland Ferienland winkl Saalachtal Tennen- Kufstein gau Schladming Reutte Dachstein Silberregion Hochsteiermark Karwendel Wilder Lammertal, Tannheimertal Achensee Piller- Klein- Kaiser Tennen- Dachstein Bregenzer- seetal walsertal Tiroler Zugspitz gebirge wald Saalfelden/ Ramsau Arena Wild- Kitzbüheler Leogang Hochkönig's Schladming- Mieminger Seefeld schönau Alpen Saalbach Bodensee Bergreich Dachstein Plateau Ferienregion Hinterglemm Schladming- Thermenwelt Vorarlberg Lechtal Sonnen- Salzburger Oststeiermark Imst- Hohe Salve pipemoos Burgenland Zell am See terasse Sportwelt Gurgltal Tirol Mitte Ferienregion – Kaprun Ober- Alpenregion Tirol Innsbruck + Region Nationalpark Groß- tauern Bludenz West seine Hall Hohe Tauern Ferienregion Urlaubsregion Murtal g Zillertal arl- l Feriendörfer Nationalpark Arlberg tal Graz and Serfaus, Hohe Tauern Ferienregion Region Graz Fiss, Stubaital Wipptal Gasteiner- Lungau Montafon Paznaun tal Ladis Pitz- Katschberg Tiroler tal Steirisches Oberland Nationalpark Thermenland Lieser- Osttirol Region Hohe Maltatal Tauern Nockberge, Lavanttal Ötztal Carinthia Bad Kleinkirchheim Süd- and West Styria Oberes Drautal Millstätter- see Villach Villach- Carinthias Warmbad, Klagenfurt Naturarena Faaker See, Wörthersee Ossiacher See Klopeiner See – Carnica-Region Südkärnten Rosental Increase in beds >25% 0-25% <0% No comparison data available Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; Roland Berger 23
  • 18. As one would expect, the increase in the supply of beds meant that the occupancy rate continuously declined Supply of beds vs. occupancy in 5-/4-star accommodations [Basis = 2000, %] COMMENTS Beds Avg. ['000] 55% 250 • Over the past decade, the supply of beds rose more than 200 30% and is about to pass 250,000 50% 150 • At the same time, the occupancy rate in 100 quality accommo- 45% dations is declining steadily 50 40% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Occupancy Beds Source: Statistics Austria 24
  • 19. Over a third of Austrian tourist destinations achieved less than 45% capacity utilization in the prosperous year of 2008 Annual capacity utilization in 5-/4-star accommodations by destination, 2008 [%] COMMENTS Waldviertel • Even in a prosperous year like 2008, over a third Donau OÖ Weinviertel of Austria's tourism destinations reached an Mühlviertel Donau NÖ annual capacity utilization of just 45% maximum Linz • Capacit utilization is not calculated based on Capacity tili ation calc lated Inn- and I d Hausruckviertler Thermenland Wien Wi Donau NÖ days open but rather on full-year capacity Wienerwald Neusiedler Mostviertel See Salzburger Seenland Nationalpark Region city Salzburg and environment Vienna Alpen Salzkammergut in NÖ Alpbachtal and Tiroler Kaiser- Salzburger Seenland winkl Saalachtal Tennen- Ferienregion Ferienland gau Schladming Reutte Silberregion Kufstein Dachstein Hochsteiermark Karwendel Wilder Lammertal, Tannheimertal Achensee Piller- Kaiser Tennen- Dachstein Bregenzer- seetal Tiroler Zugspitz Saalfelden/ gebirge wald Wild- Ramsau Klein- Arena Kitzbüheler Leogang schönau Hochkönig's Schladming- walser- Seefeld Alpen Saalbach Bodensee Bergreich Dachstein tal Mieminger Ferienregion Hinterglemm Thermenwelt Vorarlberg Lechtal Sonnen- Salzburger Oststeiermark Imst- Plateau Hohe Salve Burgenland terasse Sportwelt Gurgltal Tirolmitte Zell am See Ferienregion Ober- Schladming- Alpenregion Tirol – Kaprun Region Nationalpark Groß- tauern pipemoos Bludenz West Innsbruck + seine Hall Hohe Tauern Ferienregion Urlaubsregion Murtal Zillertal arl- Feriendörfer Nationalpark tal Arlberg Graz and Serfaus, Hohe Tauern Ferienregion Region Graz Fiss, Stubaital Wipptal Gasteiner- Lungau Montafon Paznaun tal Ladis Katschberg Pitz- Tiroler tal Steirisches Oberland Nationalpark Lieser- Thermenland Region Hohe Osttirol Tauern Maltatal Lavanttal Nockberge, Ötztal Carinthia Bad Kleinkirchheim Süd- and West Styria Oberes Drautal Milstätter- see Villach- Carinthias C i hi Warmbad, Klagenfurt Naturarena Faaker See, Wörthersee Ossiacher See Klopeiner See – Carnica-Region Südkärnten Rosental Capacity utilization >55% 55-45% <45% Source: Statistics Austria; ÖHV; Roland Berger 25
  • 20. At the same time, some areas are seeing a downward price spiral – Prices are often below those of 2009 Average yoy price development1) for 2010/2009, standard double room 5-/4-star accommodations in selected cities [%, Basis=2009] COMMENTS Vienna: 5-star hotels 5% Vienna: 4-star hotels -2% • The travel and booking platforms Innsbruck: 5-star hotels 5 star 7% make it possible to compare offers and create price transparency Innsbruck: 4-star hotels 0% • Compared to 2009, the prices in Linz: 4-star hotels -10% 2010 have often not reached the Salzburg: 5 t hotels S l b 5-star h t l 9% previous year s level Especially 4- year's level. star accommodations were hit by Salzburg: 4-star hotels 2% cutthroat competition Graz: 5-star hotels -9% Graz: 4-star hotels G 4 t h t l -3% 3% Klagenfurt: 5-star hotels -3% Klagenfurt: 4-star hotels -6% Bregenz: 4-star hotels B 4 t h t l -2% 2% 1) Average values from January to November, as far as data was available Source: Trivago; Roland Berger 26
  • 21. The risk to a company's existence is evaluated based on two criteria: debt repayment period and equity ratio Excerpts from the Austrian Reorganization Act According to the Reorganization Act (Unternehmensreorganisationsgesetz, or URG), there are two criteria that determine whether a company is in jeopardy: 1 The debt repayment period is over 15 years 2 The equity ratio is below 8% Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank 28
  • 22. Half of the hotels supported by Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank (ÖHT) have repayment periods that are too long Selected operating KPIs of 5-/4-star accommodations1), 2009 Debt repayment period COMMENTS Hotel operations • More than half of the hotels >25 0-8 analyzed [no.] supported by the ÖHT do not years years meet the URG criterion f t th it i for 25% 25% debt repayment period 267 • A quarter of hotel operations have repayment periods h t i d longer than 25 years 25% 25% 16-25 8-16 years years 1) Dividing the hotels into groups of 25% each was done by calculating medians and quartiles, i.e. the boundaries of the individual categories were set up in such a way that the hotel businesses could be divided equally into quarters Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank 29
  • 23. In many cases, the required equity ratio of over 8% is also not met Selected operating KPIs of 5-/4-star accommodations1), 2009 Equity ratio COMMENTS Hotel operations • The situation here is also analyzed [no.] quite dramatic: >26 <-16% 25% 25% – Over 50% of the hotels 267 supported by the ÖHT have an equity ratio of less than th 8% – In many cases, the ratio is 25% 25% even negative 7-26% -16 to 7% 1) Dividing the hotels into groups of 25% each was done by calculating medians and quartiles, i.e. the boundaries of the individual categories were set up in such a way that the hotel businesses could be divided equally into quarters Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank 30
  • 24. C. Outlook and summary y 32
  • 25. The supply-side situation will become even more critical Correlation of capacity utilization to no. of new beds in 5-/4-star accommodations Capacity utilization, 2008 [%] COMMENTS 75% Salzburger Saalachtal 70% • Over the next three years, hotels Kleinwalsertal will add another 11,000 beds in Achensee 65% Serfaus - Fiss - Ladis over 20 destinations Kaiserwinkl 60% • In roughly half of the destinations Pillerseetal Innsbruck und seine Feriendörfer 55% Wien planning to expand capacity, the Zell am See/Kaprun Thermenwelt Bgl. rate of capacity utilization is 50% Bodensee Vbg already less than 50% Lammertal, L t l Stadt Dachstein Osttirol Wiener Alpen 45% Donau NÖ Salzburg in NÖ Montafon 40% Salzkammergut (OÖ, S, ST) Nationalparkregion 35% Mostviertel 30% Salzburger Seenland 25% 20% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 1,800 4,000 No. of new beds by 2013 [no.] Source: ÖHV; Roland Berger 33
  • 26. In this case, supply and demand will continue to diverge Expected dvlpmt. of supply and demand, 5-/4-star accommodations [2000 = Basis, %] COMMENTS 129 130 Supply 126 • If the number of beds continues to increase at its current rate, 125 121 123 ! capacity utilization will become p y even worse over the next five 120 Demand years – Supply and demand will 116 120 diverge further 115 113 117 111 115 • In addition, the World Economic 109 Forum expects even shorter stays, 110 112 later bookings and a preference 106 109 for lower prices in Austria 104 105 107 107 100 100 101 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Assuming 365 days open a year Source: Statistics Austria; WEF; Roland Berger 34
  • 27. The increase in overnight stays by foreign visitors is primarily due to tourists from Eastern European countries No. of overnight stays in Austria by country of origin, 2009 [m] Change 2005-2009 [%] COMMENTS -4% +9% +4% -9% -3% +6% +73% +4% +30% +16% +69% -20% +83% +265% +13% • The number of 48.9 visitors from Eastern European p countries, especially Russia and Romania, has risen 9.5 8.1 • However, the impressive three- digit growth from 3.6 3.3 Romania and the 3.0 2.5 2.0 20 1.6 1.5 1.5 two-digit two digit growth 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 from Russia repre- sent a change DEU NLD CHE GBR ITA BEL CZE FRA DNK HUN POL USA RUS ROU Other from a low absolute basis Source: Statistics Austria, data for 2010 will be available in January 36
  • 28. Foreign markets could boost capacity utilization in first-class accommodations Development of overnight stays by domestic/foreign visitors in Austria [m] COMMENTS • Since the start of 2000, but also in 92.8 the 2009 crisis, the domestic 87.7 87.2 88.4 89.8 85.8 86.3 85.9 market has remained constant 82.5 82 5 83.7 83 7 and stable • During the crisis in 2009, the foreign market dropped precipitously • There is still a need to catch up on 32.1 33.0 33.9 34.4 the foreign markets, since they 31.2 31.4 31.0 31.6 31.2 31.5 offer the necessary growth potential and volumes 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Domestic Foreign Source: Statistics Austria 37
  • 29. It is doubtful whether the Austrian National Tourist Office's current budget is sufficient to reach more foreign visitors Budgets of national tourism organizations per overnight stay, 2009 [EUR] COMMENTS 1.50 • At first glance, Austria is somewhere in the midfield in terms of what national tourism organizations spend on marketing per overnight stay • However, smaller countries such as Switzerland and Austria 0.42 naturally have to spend more per overnight stay in order to create a 0.30 presence on the international 0.11 0.10 tourism market 0.07 • For this reason, it makes sense to compare Austria with Switzerland – the latter's marketing budget per Switzer- Austria France Italy Germany UK overnight stay is over three times land higher than Austria's hi h th A t i ' Source: ÖHV; Roland Berger 38
  • 30. Austria's tourism organization has a medium number of offices – compared to Switzerland it is even underrepresented Offices of national tourism organizations, 2009 [no.] COMMENTS 27 26 25 • As one would expect, large 21 countries such as France and the 19 UK have the most tourism offices • But it is also clear that Germany and Italy have significantly fewer offices than Austria and 11 Switzerland • Compared with Switzerland, a similarly small country, Austria is underrepresented by its 21 offices worldwide Austria Germany UK France Switzer- Italy land Source: ÖHV; Roland Berger 39
  • 31. Increasing the Austrian Tourist Office's budget would relieve hotels and make more targeted advertising possible Development of advertising budgets1) [2000 = Basis; %] Owner's contribu- COMMENTS tion to adver- tising [EUR m] 130% • The Austrian Tourist Office's 123% budget shrank in 2000 and 202.7 120% 116% 2001, and then remained , % 113% constant for eight years 111% 107% 108% 107% 110% 106% 103% • In contrast, hotels today spend 100% 100% about 23% more on adver- tising than they did in 2000 90% • Austria neglected to increase 83% the Tourist Office's funds when 80% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% the economy was good, 32.1 despite increasing bed p g 70% capacity • The Economic Chamber 60% cancelled the contract with the 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Austrian TO for contributions Spending on advertising and communication, in % of income of 5-/4-star accommodations (median) to th d ti i budget t the advertising b d t Austrian Tourist Office's budget Note: No data available on the development of the tourism budgets of state tourism organizations 1) Not adjusted for inflation Source: Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank 40
  • 32. Summary and recommendations 1 Austria continues to be a successful tourist destination and is recognized as such abroad 2 The hotel sector has developed toward offering high-quality products and services, in turn leading to cutthroat competition in the top-quality segment 3 The resulting price decline affects the ability to guarantee the necessary quality and threatens the economic viability of the domestic hotel industry in the medium term 4 The announced expansion programs will reinforce these tendencies and further depress capacity utilization 5 Foreign markets in particular could generate enough capacity utilization for the increased number of beds. However, compared to other countries, Austria's National Tourism Office is underfunded, while hotels have significantly increased their own advertising budgets  More beds, therefore, do not necessarily result in more guests. For this reason, decision makers must focus more on foreign markets, since that's where the purchasing power is. This would go a long way toward utilizing existing and future capacity while fi it hil financially supporting the domestic hotel industry i ll ti th d ti h t l i d t 41