Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends
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The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) Chief Economist Joe Pickard delivered a presentation on the nonferrous scrap metal market during the Fall 2013 board meeting examining macroeconomic indicators as well as the global metals market.
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Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends
- 1. Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends Nonferrous Division Executive Committee ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings San Francisco, CA October 23, 2013
- 2. YTD Change in NF Metal Prices Year-to-Date Change in LME Official 3-Mo. Nonferrous Metal Asking Prices Dec 31, 2012 - October 22, 2013 8.0% 3.0% 0.1% -2.0% -4.9% -7.0% -5.9% -8.3% -9.2% -12.0% -14.1% -17.0% Tin Zinc Lead Copper Aluminum Nickel
- 3. Cu Scrap Spreads Have Narrowed...
- 4. YTD Change in Domestic Cu Scrap Usage 1H Domestic US Copper Consumption: - 2013: 380,000 mt - 2012: 369,000 mt % CHG: 3%
- 5. First Half 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports % Change in Volume of YTD U.S. Copper Scrap Exports: - Total: -7% - China: -9% - RoW: -1%
- 6. YTD 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports in $
- 7. First Half 2013 U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports % CHG in Volume of YTD U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports: - Total: -13% - China:-13% - RoW: -13%
- 8. YTD Change in Domestic Al Scrap Usage Estimated Metallic Domestic Recovery from Purchased New and Old Aluminum Scrap, Jan-Jul 2012 vs Jan-Jul 2013 (thousand metrics tons) Source: U.S. Geological Survey 1200 1110 1120 1000 843 849 800 600 400 200 48 60 4 4 0 Secondary Smelters Independent Mill Fabricators Jan-Jul 2012 Foundries Jan-Jul 2013 Other Consumers
- 9. Year-to-Date NF Scrap Metal Exports Commodity JUL ‘13 JUN ‘13 MAY ‘13 Copper Scrap 92,707 95,643 155,505 Nickel Scrap 96,531 JAN-JUL '13 651,892 JAN-JUL '12 697,575 % CHG -7% 152,963 157,177 1,219,064 1,063,822 -13% 2,496 2,207 2,162 14,531 15,908 -9% Lead Scrap 1,742 3,707 3,101 20,010 15,004 33% Zinc Scrap 5,302 7,158 7,072 47,153 51,013 -8% Aluminum Scrap
- 10. Exchange Rates US Dollar and Copper Scrap Exports are Negatively Correlated (-.6%) 130,000,000 90.0 120,000,000 85.0 110,000,000 100,000,000 80.0 90,000,000 75.0 80,000,000 70,000,000 70.0 60,000,000 65.0 50,000,000 60.0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 40,000,000 Cu Scrap Exports (kg) US Dollar Index
- 11. Outlook Uncertainty remains the recurring theme with unsettled questions on: • Global supply surpluses • Domestic scrap inventories • U.S. Budget, debt ceiling, regulatory challenges • LME rules changes and investment demand • Timing of Fed tapering and exchange rate volatility • Last but not least, Chinese demand and Euro zone recovery
- 12. World Bank Price Forecasts Aluminum Copper $/mt $/mt Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ¢/kg $/mt ¢/kg ¢/kg 2013 1,800.00 7,100.00 210 14,000 2,200.00 190 2014 1,850.00 7,050.00 212 15,000 2,220.00 215 2015 1,900.00 7,000.00 215 16,000 2,250.00 220 Updated October 2013.