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MarketTrend: The U.S. Market for Chef- and Foodservice-branded Food Sold at Retail
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MarketTrend: The U.S. Market for Chef- and Foodservice-branded Food Sold at
Retail
May 1, 2009
Countries covered: United States
The popularity of celebrity chefs and restaurant culture among consumers continues to
grow, driven in large part by the dominance of food-related media, such as television
programming, magazines and websites, and cookbooks. The big question is whether
consumers will even give a hoot about brand mystique in the midst of an economic
crisis as more pressing issues are at hand. Instead of feeling good about expensive and
conspicuous purchases as they have in the past, many consumers will increasingly feel
good about not spending in 2009. Not just on discretionary items, but on staple goods
as well—including food.
Though the market for chef-and restaurant-branded food products in the U.S. grew at
an annual rate of eight percent between 2004 and 2008 in dollar sales, in unit terms
growth was much less exciting. And for 2009, a new era may be beginning. For food
marketers the prospects of changing market dynamics due to shifting consumer
preferences, economic worries and a New Frugality may be challenging but can also be
viewed as providing new and exciting opportunities.
MarketTrend: The U.S. Market for Chef- and Foodservice-branded Food Sold at Retail
examines these issues and many others by looking at the current market, trends, major
brands, and consumer preferences. The report presents concise, thought-provoking
analyses of various aspects of the industry and provides a forecast for the market
through 2013.
Methodology
The report uses data from IRI, which tracks sales through mass retail channels (except
Wal-Mart) and Product Launch Analytics, a service of Datamonitor, which provides data
on new product introductions. Other research data were gathered from trade
associations, business journals, financial reports and brand literature, and from the
Internet for other useful information on the topic.
2. Where possible, discussion in terms of unit sales has been included to provide a picture
of “real” growth. Sales for all of 2008 were estimated by Packaged Facts based on sales
through September 2008 or in some cases through part of November 2008.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Scope
Chef Brands
Restaurant Brands
Categories
Items Omitted
Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Chef/Foodservice Food Products Top $3.7 Billion
Figure 1-1: U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products Market, 2004-
2008 (in billions $)
Market Forecast
Market to Reach $4.4 Billion by 2013
Figure 1-2: U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products Market Forecast,
2008-2013 (in billions $)
Brand Activity
Brand Activity Overview: Casual Dining Dominates
Table 1-1: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Chef and Foodservice Brands, 2004-2008 (in
millions $)
Consumer Trends
Food Products Market Landscape
The Power of a Name
Chef-Brands May Benefit More than Foodservice
Eating Patterns Shifting
Cooking Ingredients and Kitchen Staples Important Again
Ethnic Food is Growing
Diverse America Has Diverse Tastes
Smaller Households Positive for Market
Consumer Health Concerns Paramount
What about Convenience?
Company Ethics and Added Values Important to Consumers
Consumers See Benefits of Social Responsibility
New Product Introduction Trends
Changing American Taste Buds
New Product Introductions Drop 38% in 2008
Sauces, Dressings & Condiments See Most Introductions
New Product Claims: Solidify Premium & Convenience Positions
Emerging Benefit Areas: Health and Sustainability
What’s Next in Flavor?
Ever-Growing World of Super Foods and Flavors
3. Meal Kit Concept Sees Constant Stream of Introductions
Empty Nesters Targeted
Add-ins Help Consumer Make it Fresher
Looking Ahead
Positive Marketing Karma in Appropriate and Authentic Licenses
Celebrity Chefs Keep Personal Brands Fresh with Cookbook Offerings
Many Top Chain Restaurants Not in Retail Market
Table 1-2: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Family Dining
and Top 20 Casual Dining, 2008
Do Not Disengage from Loyal Consumers
Target Younger Shoppers Now for Long Term
Make Use of Alternative Medias
Product Placement Opportunities Abound
Certain Purchases Outside of Branded More Likely
Chapter 2: Market Trends
Scope
Chef Brands
Restaurant Brands
Categories
Items Omitted
Methodology
Food Products Market Landscape
Consumer Health Concerns Paramount
Eating Patterns Shifting
Ethnic Food is Growing
An Opportunity Ready to Eat
Market Size and Growth
Chef/Foodservice Food Products Top $3.7 Billion
Figure 2-1: U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products Market, 2004-
2008 (in billions $)
Table 2-1: U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products Market Year-
over-Year Percentage Change, 2004-2008 (in millions $)
Foodservice Products Garner Lion’s Share of Market
Figure 2-2: Dollar Share of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products
by Brand Type, 2008 (%)
IRI-Tracked Sales Account for 54% of Market
Dinners and Entrées More than Half of IRI-Tracked Sales
Table 2-2: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded
Food Products by Category, 2004-2008 (in millions $)
Condiments, Sauces and Seasonings Market Saturated
Figure 2-3: Share of IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-
Branded Food Products, by Category, 2008 (%)
Side Dishes Grow 8%
Bob Evans: The King of Breakfast
Table 2-3: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food
Products by Category, 2004-2008 (unites, in millions)
4. Soup Growth Cooling
Frozen Desserts Getting Hot
Figure 2-4: Share of IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-
Branded Food Products, by Category, 2008 (%)
Top 20 Products
Marie Callender’s Leads
California Pizza Kitchen Posts Strong Growth
Ken’s Steak House Salad Dressing Growth Slows
Boston Market Serves Up Savory Sales
Other Notable Products
Table 2-4: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-
Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in millions $)
Table 2-5: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded
Food Products, 2004-2008 (in millions units)
Market Forecast
Market to Reach $4.4 Billion by 2013
Figure 2-5: U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products Market Forecast,
2008-2013 (in billions $)
Economy, Shifting Consumer Buying Habits to Cause Decline in 2009
Table 2-6: U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products Market Forecast
Year-over-Year Percentage Change, 2008-2013 (in millions $)
Chapter 3: Brand Activity
Brand Activity Overview: Casual Dining Dominates
Fast Food Reigns in Mid-Tier
Chefs and Restaurateurs Operate Below $50 Million Mark
Family Friendly Foods of Marie Callender’s and Bob Evan’s Top Out
Table 3-1: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Chef and Foodservice Brands (in millions $)
Fine Dining Not to Be Left Out
Figure 3-1: Top 20 Chef and Foodservice Brands in Retail, U.S. by IRI-Tracked
Dollar Sales, 2008 (%)
Chef Brands Carve a Niche
Old School Classics, Nathans and White Castle Have Good Showing
Selected Chef Brand Profiles
Emeril’s
Overview
Performance
Table 3-2: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Emeril’s-Branded Food Products, 2004-
2008 (in thousands $)
Table 3-3: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Emeril’s-Branded Food Products, 2004-
2008 (in thousands units)
Selected New Product Introductions
Table 3-4: Selected Emeril’s Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008
Paula Deen
Overview
Performance
5. Table 3-5: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Paula Deen-Food Products, 2007-2008 (in
thousands $)
Table 3-6: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Paula Deen-Food Products, 2007-2008 (in
thousands units)
Selected New Product Introductions
Table 3-7: Selected Paula Deen Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008
Wolfgang Puck
Overview
Performance
Table 3-8: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Wolfgang Puck-Branded Food Products,
2004-2008 (in thousands $)
Table 3-9: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Wolfgang Puck-Branded Food Products,
2004-2008 (in thousands units)
Selected New Product Introductions
Table 3-10: Selected Wolfgang Puck’s Branded New Product Introductions,
2004-2008
Selected Foodservice Brand Profiles
Boston Market
Overview
Performance
Table 3-11: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Boston Market-Branded Food Products,
2004-2008 (in thousands $)
Table 3-12: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Boston Market-Branded Food Products,
2004-2008 (in thousands units)
Selected New Product Introductions
Table 3-13: Selected Boston Market Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-
2008
Margaritaville
Overview
Performance
Table 3-14: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Margaritaville-Branded Food Products,
2004-2008 (in thousands $)
Table 3-15: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Margaritaville-Branded Food Products,
2004-2008 (in thousands units)
Selected New Product Introductions
Table 3-16: Selected Margaritaville Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-
2008
Taco Bell
Overview
Performance
Table 3-17: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Taco Bell Food Products, 2004-2008 (in
thousands $)
Table 3-18: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Taco Bell Food Products, 2004-2008 (in
thousands units)
Selected New Product Introductions
Table 3-19: Selected Taco Bell Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008
6. Chapter 4: Consumer Trends
The Power of a Name
Sauces to Saucepans Get the Brand Treatment
Is the Party Over?
Chef-Brands May Benefit, Foodservice May Suffer
Consumer Behavior Shifts
Shift in Consumer Psychology
Consumers Get Thrifty: Cook in More, Dine Out Less
Cooking at Home More Could Be Longer Term Trend
Celebrity Chefs Making It Easier
Cooking Ingredients and Kitchen Staples Important Again
Chef, Foodservice Brands Show Mixed Signals
Frozen Foods, The Bastion of Foodservice Branding May Suffer
The Recession Is an Opportunity
Determining Value Key for Consumer
Consumers More Informed Than Ever
Internet the New Value Tool
Table 4-1: Statements Indicating Consumer Role as Researcher, Fact-Finder,
Planner, Spring 2008 (index)
Diverse America Has Diverse Tastes
Hispanic, Asian and Multi-Racial to Drive Population Growth
Table 4-2: U.S. Population Estimate and Projections by Race, 2007-2020 (in
thousands persons)
Food Business Responds to Consumer Interest in Ethnic Flavors
Interest in a Variety of Cuisines Growing
Table 4-3: Popular Ethnic Food Categories by Number of Recipes on Popular
Consumer Websites, FoodNetwork.com, 2006 versus 2008
Smaller Households Positive for Market
Table 4-4: U.S. Households by Number of Persons in Household, 2003-2007 (in
millions)
America’s More Healthful Lifestyle
Ingredients, Portion Control Lead Concerns
Dieting No Longer about Weight
What about Convenience?
Can Health, Convenience, and Thrift Co-exist?
Consumer Food Fears
Company Ethics and Added Values Important to Consumers
Good Causes a Good Draw
New York’s Tavern on the Green Embraces a Cause
Consistency May Be the Best Policy
Consumers See Benefits of Social Responsibility
Consumers Sought More Organic Foods, Marketers Respond
Social Responsibility Goes Mainstream
Environmental Benefits May Lead
In Bad Economy Consumers Less Committed
Chapter 5: New Product Introduction Trends
7. Changing American Taste Buds
New Product Introductions Drop 38% in 2008
Table 5-1: Estimated Number of Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Introductions,
U.S., 2004-2008*
Sauces, Dressings & Condiments See Most Introductions
Figure 5-1: Share of Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Introductions by Segment,
U.S., 2004-2008 (percent)
New Product Claims: Solidify Premium & Convenience Positions
Opportunity in Other Emerging Benefit Areas, Especially Health and
Sustainability
Table 5-2: Total New Food Introduction Tags, 2004 & 2008 versus 2004-2008
Chef- and Foodservice-Brand Tags
New Product Flavors: Trend Toward Savory and Spicey but Not Exotic
Table 5-3: Top 20 Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Flavors, 2004-2008
What Comes After Chinese, Italian and Mexican?
Table 5-4: Non-traditional Ethnic Foods Consumption by Age, Percent
Consuming Twice a Month or More, 2007
Mapping a Food Trend
Ever-Growing World of Flavors
Super Foods Still Getting Good Press
Super Foods in Chef and Restaurant Introductions
Table 5-5: Selected Foods Deemed Super
Meal Kit Concept Sees Constant Stream of Introductions
Empty Nesters Targeted
Add-ins Help Consumer Make it Fresher
Some Brands Busier with Introductions Than Others
Table 5-6: Selected List of New Product Introductions, 2004-2008
Chapter 6: Looking Ahead
Positive Marketing Karma in Appropriate and Authentic Licenses
Restaurant Names, Licensing and Diet Tie-Ins
Celebrity Chefs Keeping Personal Brands Fresh with Cookbook Offerings
Table 6-1: Selected List from Top 100 Chef Cook Book Titles on
barnesandnoble.com, March 2009
Chef Versus Personality
Top Restaurant Cook Books Highlight Opportunity in Healthier and High End
Products
Table 6-2: Selected List from Top 100 Restaurant Cook Book Titles on
barnesandnoble.com, March 2009
Many Top Chain Restaurants Already in Retail Market
Table 6-3: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Family Dining,
2008
Table 6-4: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Casual
Dining, 2008
Less Activity in Sandwich, Café, Mexican, Seafood and Burgers
Table 6-5: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20
Sandwich/Bakery-Café, 2008
8. Table 6-6: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Mexican,
2008
Table 6-7: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 15 Seafood,
2008
Table 6-8: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Burgers, 2008
Do Not Disengage from Loyal Consumers
Target Younger Shoppers Now for Long Term
Take Marketing to Virtual Heights
Make Use of Alternative Medias
Behavioral Targeting in Diverse and Fragmented Market
Product Placement Opportunities Abound
Certain Purchases Outside of Branded More Likely
Couponing Coming Back Strong
Appendix: Addresses of Selected Marketers
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