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20200610 Covid 19 - Global Auto Consumer Insights_Wave 2

McKinsey "COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights"

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20200610 Covid 19 - Global Auto Consumer Insights_Wave 2

  1. 1. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited Updated: June 11, 2020 Results from consumer survey May 27-29, 2020 COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 • COVID-19 is first and foremost a major humanitarian challenge. Thousands of health professionals are battling the virus, putting their own lives at risk. Overstretched health systems will need time and help to return to a semblance of normalcy. • Solving the humanitarian challenge is, of course, priority #1. Much remains to be done globally to respond and recover, from counting the humanitarian costs of the virus, to supporting the victims and families, to finding a vaccine. • This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide consumer insights during the current COVID-19 situation. In addition to the humanitarian challenge, there are implications for the wider economy, businesses, and employment. This document includes consumer insights from a survey conducted between May 9-17 and May 27-29 in US, UK, DE, FR, IT, CN, JP.
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Scope of global COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Survey Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Markets 7 global markets: US, UK, DE, FR, IT, CH, JP Pulse Survey 5 bi-weekly waves Wave 1: May 9-17 Wave 2: May 27-29 Respondents >8k respondents per wave 1k+ respondents per market, thereof  1,000 mobility participants1  400 car purchase intenders2 Questions 20+ questions on mobility behavior 20+ questions on car purchase intent 10 questions on aftersales behavior 10 questions on screening, demogra- phics, COVID-19 impact 1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70 2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Executive summary Car buying After- market ▪ Aftermarket appears stable as delayed maintenance and repair seems to be offset by additional/catch-up work ▪ Consumers anticipate to increase online ordering of parts and DIY work Mobility ▪ Mobility decreased significantly among countries surveyed, but slowly picking up again in all regions ▪ Post-COVID-19, consumers do not expect big changes vs. pre-COVID-19; walking, biking, and micromobility might potentially become more popular ▪ Consumers expect to shift from airplanes and trains for intercity travelling to an increased use of private vehicles ▪ A third of consumers values constant access to a private vehicle more than before COVID-19, esp. younger and female consumers ▪ Car purchase intent stable at 18% below pre-COVID-19 level for new cars; -11% for used car; US, UK, JP c. -30%; DE and FR recovering; CN at pre-COVID-19 level ▪ 20% of consumers in market pre-COVID-19 revoked purchase intent; 2/3 of remaining consumers delay purchase ▪ Higher income households seem less likely to revert purchase intent; demand for EVs and premium brands seems more robust ▪ Average duration of delay is decreasing, with an increased share of consumers delaying up to 3 months ▪ Across markets, no significant increase of perceived discount levels observed yet ▪ Across markets, 20-40% of consumers plan to spend less – negative trend increasing in the US, while stabilizing in other markets; shift between segments seem limited yet ▪ Digital becomes more important along the entire purchase funnel; less than a third of younger consumers prefer conducting car sales & aftersales in person at a dealership Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17; May 27-29) AS OF JUNE 10, 2020
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Car buying, aftermarket, and mobility decreased due to COVID-19 – aftermarket less affected and likely to recover 1.Q: Before the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? 2 Q: During or after the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car? 3 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally? Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding New car purchase intent1,2 Percent of respondents 69 52 53 31 31 29 Likely Before COVID-19 100 May 9-11 May 27-29 Very/extremely likely 83 82 -18% AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 Car buying Aftermarket Mobility Plan for next month 16% 53% 13% 70% Up until now 17% 30% Done additional No changes Delay -4% +14% Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-193 % of respondents Change mobility mode use % of respondents using mode ≥ once/week Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29) Net impact (Δ p.p. "done add." vs "delay") 78 64 69 79 37 19 23 37 14 11 12 16 Be- fore crisis Next normal Wave 1 Wave 2 11 9 10 12 Wave 2 Be- fore crisis Wave 1 Next normal Private car Public transportation Shared micromobility Car sharing
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Contents Car buying Aftermarket Mobility
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Car purchase intent 18% below pre-COVID-19 level; used cars demand stable at -11% (driven by CN) 1.Q: Before the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? [used] 2 Q: During or after the COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car? [used] Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size New cars Used cars Change in % AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 Car purchase intent vs. pre-COVID-19 level 1,2 Percent 69 52 53 31 31 29 Before COVID-19 May 9-17 May 27-29 100 83 82 -18% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29) 57 48 43 43 40 46 May 27-29Before COVID-19 May 9-17 89 100 89 -11% w/o China 78% Very/extremely likelyLikely
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 New car purchase intent ~-30% vs. pre-COVID-19 in US, UK, JP; DE and FR recovering; CN -9% vs. pre-COVID-19 1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level 1,2 Percent 74 30 19 38 31 36 26 32 34 26 30 27 Mar 28- 29 Apr 2-5 Before COVID- 19 Apr 16- 19 May 9-11 May 27- 29 100 62 53 64 60 64 -36% Likely Very/extremely likely Change in % 73 41 48 27 22 22 100 70 Before COVID- 19 63 May 9-11 May 27-29 -30% FranceGermany ItalyUKUSA China Japan 70 43 34 34 46 58 30 32 25 34 33 26 Before COVID- 19 Apr 16- 19 Mar 28- 29 Apr 2-5 May 11- 13 May 27- 29 100 75 58 68 79 84 -16% 61 22 24 20 37 36 39 33 40 28 37 39 Mar 28- 29 Before COVID- 19 Apr 16- 19 Apr 2-5 May 11- 13 100 May 27- 29 55 64 48 75 75 -25% AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 73 68 60 27 30 31 Before COVID- 19 May 14-15 91 May 27-29 100 98 -9% 60 37 37 40 38 36 Before COVID- 19 May 14-15 74 May 27-29 100 73 -27% 67 38 28 16 46 59 33 20 23 38 44 37 57 Before COVID- 19 Apr 2-5 Mar 28- 29 Apr 16- 19 May 15- 17 May 27- 29 100 51 54 89 96 -4% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29)
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Used car purchase intent decreased stronger than NC in DE and FR; less decrease in US 1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 3. For wave 2 included consumers interested in both new and used cars 4. Results less significant as small sample size Change in % FranceGermany ItalyUKUSA China3 Japan4 AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 Purchase intent used cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level 1,2 Percent 51 24 37 24 30 32 49 41 48 35 30 27 59 Before COVID- 19 May 27- 29 Mar 28- 29 Apr 2-5 60 Apr 16- 19 May 9-11 100 65 85 59 -41% Likely Very/extremely likely 47 39 37 53 34 39 77 Before COVID- 19 73 100 May 9-11 May 27-29 -23% 65 37 35 23 31 34 35 48 21 58 39 37 Before COVID- 19 May 27- 29 Mar 28- 29 May 11- 13 69 Apr 2-5 Apr 16- 19 100 85 56 81 71 -29% 43 16 26 16 30 23 57 43 50 35 41 54 Apr 2-5 Before COVID- 19 Mar 28- 29 Apr 16- 19 100 May 11- 13 May 27- 29 60 76 51 72 77 -23% 64 62 50 36 39 52 Before COVID- 19 May 14-15 101 May 27-29 100 102 +2% 54 39 50 46 65 50 104 May 27-29 Before COVID- 19 May 14-15 100100 0% 53 35 28 25 36 32 47 38 39 48 53 46 Before COVID- 19 Mar 28- 29 Apr 16- 19 Apr 2-5 May 15- 17 May 27- 29 100 73 67 73 89 78 -22% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29)
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 US and Asia consumers express increased preference for used cars Purchase intent for new car vs. used car vs. considering both 1 Indexed to pre-COVID-19 value (=100) Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29) AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 1. Weighted based on 2019 new car sales 50 80 70 60 100 110 90 Pre-COVID-19 Wave 2Wave 1 New car Considering bothUsed car 70 50 60 80 90 100 110 Pre-COVID-19 Wave 1 Wave 2 50 60 100 90 70 80 110 Pre-COVID-19 Wave 1 Wave 2 US Europe Asia
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Across markets, higher income households seem less likely to revise their purchase intent Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 27-29); respondents who didn't share the income category were excluded AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 FranceGermany ItalyUKUSA China Japan 53 70 73 47 30 27 Cancellation Low Medium High No cancellation Cancellation by household income, Percent of respondents (100% = Planned to buy pre-COVID) 58 57 58 42 43 42 Low Medium High 61 71 86 39 29 14 Low Medium High 73 74 92 27 26 8 Low Medium High 50 66 84 50 34 16 HighLow Medium 80 90 91 20 10 9 MediumLow High 68 72 79 32 28 21 HighLow Medium
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Among surveyed countries, demand for EVs and premium brands seems more robust Percent of initial purchase intenders that now have no further intent AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 Note. Excluding mHEV; respondents count into each category they were interested in (multiple answers possible) Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29) Combustion engine 1820 -1 Hybrid 17 20 -3 15 Wave 1 Wave 2 EV 19 -3 19 18 Premium -1 Volume Wave 1 Wave 2 22 22 0 Cancellation by engine preference Cancellation by brand preference Percent of initial purchase intenders that now have no further intent
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Average duration of delay is decreasing, with an increased share of consumers delaying up to 3 months 1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, when would you have likely made your next vehicle purchase (or lease)? 2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, when do you think you are likely to make you next vehicle purchase (or lease)? 3. Question under footnote 1 and 2 answers “No longer planning on buying or leasing a vehicle” and “Not sure” have been excluded AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 Duration of delay1,2,3 Percent of respondents 39 51 48 38 10 9 7 to 9 months May 9-11 3 2 May 27-29 10 months or more 4 to 6 months Up to 3 months JapanChinaItalyFranceGermanyUKUS 34 43 48 44 14 13 4 1 May 9-11 May 27-29 46 45 40 41 13 12 1 May 11-13 2 May 27-29 44 49 42 37 11 12 3 May 15-17 3 May 27-29 31 33 48 45 18 17 May 27-29 3 4 May 11-13 57 55 36 35 6 9 May 15-17 1 1 May 27-29 40 35 38 46 19 16 May 15-17 3 3 May 27-29 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29)
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Consumers in DE, FR, IT seem to be holding out for subsidies while health concerns decline 1. Q: Which of the following reasons best describes why you have decided to delay your purchase (or lease) of a new vehicle? Please select one AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 Purchase delay reasons 1 Percent of respondents 10 9 45 39 45 52 May 27-29 May 9-11 Economics Health Subsidies JapanChinaItalyFranceGermanyUKUS 5 10 47 46 48 45 May 9-11 May 27-29 21 19 29 26 51 55 May 11-13 May 27-29 12 21 35 30 54 49 May 15-17 May 27-29 14 22 31 22 55 56 May 11-13 May 27-29 6 9 40 39 54 52 May 15-17 May 27-29 6 36 33 58 63 May 15-17 4 May 27-29 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29)
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Consumers do not observe increased discount levels yet 18 24 31 26 32 34 11 10 7 5 May 9-11 May 27-29 Slightly lower Significantly higher Slightly higher In line with pre-crisis level Significantly lower Observed discount levels compared to pre-crisis levels1, Percent of respondents 1. Q: Have you observed any changes in offered price discounts for purchasing or leasing a new or used car over the last 2 weeks compared to levels before the COVID-19 outbreak? Note: Answer “I did not observe/research any price discounts” excluded Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29) AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 JapanChinaItalyFranceGermanyUKUS 18 14 33 31 34 41 11 13 4 2 May 9-11 May 27-29 13 11 23 20 44 49 15 18 6 3 May 27-29 May 11-13 16 17 29 23 38 41 13 16 4 4 May 11-13 May 27-29 18 15 23 27 31 33 19 15 8 10 May 27-29 May 15-17 8 6 29 22 37 40 21 29 5 4 May 15-17 May 27-29 6 6 18 17 58 60 16 14 2 3 May 27-29 May 15-17 Net score Δ Higher vs lower -35-31 -30-37 -6-65-11-10-16 -18-14 -20-28
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 A third of consumers plans to spend less on their next vehicle than planned before crisis – negative trend increasing in the US, while stabilizing in other markets Change in planned vehicle spending vs. pre-COVID-19 1 Percent of respondents 1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how did the total value of the vehicle you are considering purchasing or leasing changed? 2. Includes Germany, UK, France and Italy Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 27-29) AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 22 29 May 9-11 May 27-29 +7 p.p. 13 11 -1 p.p. 65 60 -5 p.p. Increase No change Decrease 31 27 May 9-11 May 27-29 -4 p.p. 6 6 0 p.p. 63 66 +3 p.p. 38 36 May 9-11 May 27-29 -2 p.p. 14 13 -2 p.p. 47 51 +4 p.p. Net score Δ Increase vs decrease -9 -18 -25 -21 -24 -23 US Europe Asia
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 34 40 39 22 23 28 45 37 33 By phone with dealer / E-mail or fax to dealer In person at car dealership May 27-29Previous purchase May 9-11 Website / Mobile app Preferred interaction mode for purchasing next car and for last car purchased 1,2 Percent of respondents 1. Q: When you LAST TIME purchased or leased a car/serviced a car, which of the following sources/channels did you predominately use? 2. Q: For your PLANNED/NEXT vehicle purchase/leased/car service, which of the following sources/channels would you prefer to use? Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 27-29) Preference for digital/remote channels is increasing in US and Europe, while already being more common in Asia 31 34 35 21 22 24 48 43 41 May 27-29Previous purchase May 9-17 38 39 39 34 34 32 29 27 29 May 27-29Previous purchase May 14-15 US Europe Asia AS OF JUNE 10, 2020
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Contents Car buying Aftermarket Mobility
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-191 % of respondents On average, ~15% of consumers plan to postpone maintenance & repair, a quarter plan to do additional work AS OF JUNE 10, 2020 1 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net impact is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they have delayed service & maintenance work from the % of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work Net impact2 +39 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 27-29) - 6 - 327%43%30%Plan for next month Up until now 10%16% 74% Delay No changes Done additional Up until now 28%52%20%Plan for next month 14%73%13%Up until nowUp until now +39 Plan for next month 7% 26%67% 85%Up until now 7% 9%Up until now 32%51%17%Plan for next month Up until now 16% 11%74%Up until now 50%12% 38%Plan for next month 13%56%31%Up until nowUp until now 33% 49%18%Plan for next month 34%34%Up until now 32%Up until now 19%70%Plan for next month 11% Up until now 6%84%10%Up until now +39; +1 +39 +2 +39 - 5 +39 - 17 +39 +2 +39 - 4 +39 +8 +39 +19 +39 +16 +39 +25 +39 +31 +39 +8 Net impact Wave 12 +39 - 6 - 11+39 +39 - 3 +39 +1 +39 - 6 +39 - 18 +39 +3 +39 - 5 +39 +5 +39 +16 +39 +15 +39 +24 +39 +34 +39 +10
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Contents Car buying Aftermarket Mobility
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Since the COVID-19 outbreak, mobility decreased significantly in countries surveyed, with trips slowly picking up again in all regions 1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19? 2. US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, Japan 3. Total (significant) mobility decrease Wave 2 vs. Wave 1 Aggregated2 -26 -28 -46 -39 272 Wave 1 6 Wave 2 +5 Results of wave 1 (May 9-18) and wave 2 (May 27-29) Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191 Number of respondents, in percent Significantly increase Significantly decreaseSlightly increase Slightly decrease ▪ Currently 67% decrease in mobility pattern, recovering at 5 p.p. vs. two weeks ago ▪ Germany and China show the highest recovery rate, while the US is still close to levels of the COVID outbreak x Mobility recovery3, in p.p. -28 -28 -41 -39 2 Wave 1 34 7 Wave 2 +2 -18 -19 -53 -50 2 Wave 2 24 Wave 1 4 +4 -29 -29 -33 -26 Wave 2 413 Wave 1 1 +7 -21 -29 -66 -53 22 1 Wave 1 2 Wave 2 +5 -20 -25 -58 -50 224 4 Wave 1Wave 2 +3 18 22 -30 -33 -39 -29 3 Wave 1 3 Wave 2 +7 -33 -31 -30 -26 4 224 Wave 1 Wave 2 +6 AS OF JUNE 10, 2020
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Walking / biking and micromobility potentially becoming more popular in the modal mix of the "next normal" Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2 Number of respondents stating at least weekly, in percent 1 Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation? 2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China and Japan 78 64 69 79 Before crisis Wave 1 Return to "normal life" Wave 2 +5 37 19 23 37 +3 61 57 60 67 +3 14 11 12 16 +1 11 9 10 12 +1 14 10 12 15 +1 Private car Public transport Walking or biking with private bike Micromobility (e.g., e-scooter, e-bike) Car sharing (e.g., ShareNow) Ride hailing (e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis) Trends emerging in the “next normal” Potential long-lasting effects as cities might extend measures beyond lock- down to reduce traffic and air pollution Potential recovery as curfews are lifted; strict hygiene protocols to be installed As ride hailers take physical measures to reduce risk of infection (e.g. protective shields), demand will likely rebound again Car usage may decrease in city centers as cities disincentivize private vehicle ownership (e.g., inner-city bans, congestion charges) Results of wave 1 (May 9-18) and wave 2 (May 27-29) ▪ Respondents expect an increased usage of walking / biking and micro- mobility when returning to “normal life” ▪ Private car usage picked up fastest over the last 2 weeks, in absolute terms ▪ Walking / biking almost back to a pre- crisis level x Mobility recovery, in p.p. Mobility usage pre- vs. post-crisis Mobility usage during crisis AS OF JUNE 10, 2020
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility In countries surveyed consumers expect to shift from airplanes and trains for intercity travelling to an increased use of private vehicles Change of mode for intercity travelling when returning to "next normal" vs. habits before COVID-19 outbreak1 Number of respondents2, in percent Airplane Train Private vehicle 1 Q: After you return to next normal, how do you think travelling between cities will change compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak? 2. Consumers that have not used this mode of transportation before the COVID-19 outbreak excluded of scope of country 27 -40 -33 -42 -31 -42 -45 -49 -39 1417 17 141412 17 Increased usage Decreased usageResults of wave 1 (May 9-18) and wave 2 (May 27-29) Aggregated result3 30 -33 -31 -34 -20 -34 -32 -40 -33 131718 1618 18 14 32 31 24 23 41 28 50 27 -9-10-14-13 -12 -14 -17-16 AS OF JUNE 10, 2020
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility The importance of direct access to a private vehicle has increased, especially amongst younger and female consumers Willingness to pay for electric vehicles (in percent relative to ICE) By age Importance of constant access to a private vehicle1 Number of respondents, in percent 1. Q: How has the importance of having constant access to a private vehicle changed since the COVID-19 outbreak? 2. Aggregated results from US, UK, DE, IT, FR, CH, JP Results of wave 1 (May 9-18) and wave 2 (May 27-29) 32 -17 Increased usage Decreased usage Aggregated result2 42 33 24 -19 -16 -18 18-34 35-54 55-70 By gender 34 30 -17 -18 MaleFemale ▪ Majority of respondents value constant access to a private vehicle more than before the COVID-19 outbreak ▪ Increased importance of constant access to a private vehicle with highest relevance amongst younger and female consumer AS OF JUNE 10, 2020

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