Australia – Telecoms Industry Analysis and Forecast to 2015-2020

Australia – Telecoms Industry: Statistics and Forecasts
By
Paul Budde Communication
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Australia – Telecoms Industry – Statistics and Forecasts
Overview
This report provides data and analyses on Australia’s telecom sector, including a wealth of
statistics relating to various market segments. The report assesses overall market dynamics,
the key financial and operating performance of the principal players, and developments in the
mobile, fixed-line and broadband sectors. These sectors continue to be affected by changing
consumer use of services, the widespread deployment of LTE technologies, and the new
market realities resulting from the review of the NBN under which the preferred multi-
technology architecture has rekindled investment in HFC plant and existing DSL infrastructure.
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Executive Summary
Slow sector revenue growth bolstered by Telstra and 2nd tier operators
Studies estimates that the overall telecoms services revenue will have grown only marginally in
2014, reaching about $42.9 billion. This will be largely due to the effects of continuing
depressed revenue from Vodafone and Optus, offset by a resurgent Telstra and by a host of
2nd tier players which reported strong revenue growth in FY2014. These players in general
anticipate reporting further revenue gains for FY2015. Competition among them, compounded
by consumer expectations continues to place pressure on pricing into 2015, particularly in the
mobile voice and mobile data segments. Overall revenue growth into 2016 is expected to
remain stable at about 1-1.5% annually.
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Telstra retains its dominance in the Australian telecom market, enjoying a 61% market share of
revenue. Its strong position has been aided by the poor strategic direction taken by Optus and
Vodafone during the last two to three years, as well as by its own astute decisions undertaken
recently. The sale of the company’s interests in some international businesses secured
considerable profits which have enabled it to invest in new enterprises showcasing its growing
interest in areas such as OTT services and healthcare.
Telstra mobile network is the market leader in the Australian Telecom Market. It has over 16
million domestic mobile customers. It covers more than 2.3 million sq. km of the Australian
landmass and 99.3 per cent of the population. It earned revenue of around 2.1 billion dollars in
2014. This was a growth of 21.7 percent or 378 million dollars than the previous year’s
revenue.
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Retail mobile services revenue of the company grew by 6.7 % with major product categories.
Domestic retail customer services are increased by 937,000. Now the no of customers reached
to 16.0 million. Also Post-paid handheld revenue grew 4.2 per cent to 5,006 million domestic.
The company has also taken a lead in the digital services. The penetration of Telstra into 4G
devices is high. It has more than 5.2 million 4G devices on its network, comprising 500,000
tablets, 3.8 million handsets, 400,000 dongles and 550,000 Wi-Fi hotspots. The company
credits its success to extended 4G services.
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Broadband continues to prosper as customers switch to mobile solutions
Australia’s broadband market has slowed since mid-2000s, reflecting higher penetration
among consumers. The rapid growth in the number of wireless mobile broadband subscribers
has maintained overall growth in the market in recent years, driven by smartphones and
tablets. In 2014 the number of broadband subscribers is expected to have grown by about 2-
3%, year-on-year. A key concern moving forward is how far operators should invest in DSLAM
infrastructure. With the multi-technology mix for the NBN emphasizing a combination of FttN
and HFC architecture, the transition from DSL to fiber-based infrastructure will be on a far
smaller scale than was envisaged only a year ago.
There has also been resurgent interest in Wi-Fi, with Telstra in mid-2014 announcing plans to
invest more than $100 million to build a network of some two million hotspots across the
nation within five years. This is complemented by a growing number of municipal-backed Wi-Fi
zones.
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In 2014 the residential broadband market is expected to be worth about $19.2 billion, a slight
increase on 2013. With almost 90% of Australian households having home internet access by
the tail-end of 2014, the sector is now more focused on multiple broadband connections via
both wired and wireless service providers.
The 2nd tier market
Developments in this market have been dominated by industry consolidation, a process likely
to continue over coming years. Size and reach have proven to be crucial for operators to
flourish in a market dominated by only a few players, and with progress with the NBN set to be
ramped up following a management overhaul.
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Mergers, acquisitions and sales have resulted in significant changes in revenue for some
players. AAPT, acquired from Telecom New Zealand by TPG in February 2014, shows indications
that declining revenue over the last few years will provide positive growth into 2015. In general
terms, most operators excepting AAPT performed well in FY2014, and look set to report strong
financial gains into FY2015 as they take advantage of their assets and skill in providing cloud
and data center services to the corporate and government sectors.
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Mobile market
Overall mobile services revenue growth by MNOs over the last few years has slowed to about
1%, though stronger growth from Telstra, at about 5% in FY2014, has offset declines from both
Optus and Vodafone. Stagnant revenue from Optus should be expected from these last two
operators into 2015, though towards the end of 2014 Vodafone pledged its determination to
fight back and improve its market share through customer acquisitions. Significant investment
in mobile networks, despite opting not to secure spectrum in the 700MHz band at auction,
should provide customers with greater confidence in the company’s network capabilities.
The number of mobile subscribers continues to grow steadily, and by late 2014 mobile
penetration had approached 132%. While subscriber growth is likely to continue in the next
few years, this will slow in line with higher penetration, being about 2% for 2014 and into 2015.
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Telstra remains the market leader with more than 16 million subscribers, while Optus has
around 9.4 million and Vodafone now has fewer than five million, compared to about 7.6
million in 2010, before network failures caused customers to churn to other providers.
The release of spectrum for LTE use in early 2015 will go far to enabling Telstra and Optus to
deliver their promised 98% population coverage with LTE by the end of 2016. Vodafone has
concentrated on refarming its 800MHz concessions, lessening its spectrum disadvantage.
Increases in capital expenditure by these MNOs will be required in coming years before notably
gains in revenue can be realized.
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Table of Contents
1. Telecoms Market – Late 2014
1.1 Data retention policy
1.1.1 More risks than gains?
1.1.2 What is the aim of the proposed
legislation?
1.1.3 The internet tax
1.1.4 Security risk could be higher than its gain
1.1.5 Parochial thinking doesn’t solve the
problem
1.2 Telecoms – where will the money come
from?
1.3 Latest NBN Developments- November 2014
1.3.1 Biggest threat to NBN is political panic
1.3.2 FttP – Rest of the world is wrong but
Australia is right?
1.3.3 If people don’t need NBN speeds, what
about their computers?
1.3.4 Let’s get on with the NBN
1.4 Where are the economic policies and
strategies
1.4.1 The world is passing Australia by
1.4.2 Government misses out on developing a
smart economy
1.4.3 Lack of vision – politicians absorbed by
costs of ageing economic models
1.4.4 Where is the economic plan for the post-
manufacturing era?
1.5 Competition issues
1.5.1 Can the competition take on Telstra?
1.5.2 Where does all this leave the competition?
1.5.3 So what is the future for the telcos?
1.5.4 Competition in the telecoms industry is
dwindling
1.6 Digital Productivity Key to Transformation of
Australian Economy
1.6.1 Smart Societies based on Artificial
Intelligence
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1.6.2 Sector and industry transformation
1.6.3 Has the internet reached the ‘too big to fail’
stage?
1.6.4 E-banking and M-banking
1.6.5 Advertising and Marketing in the Digital
Age
1.6.6 Business Market – Trends and Statistics
1.6.7 Online Retailing
1.6.8 E-Health
1.6.9 E-Education
1.6.10 E-Government
1.7 White Paper calls for National Telehealth
Strategy
1.8 E-education developments need to move
faster
1.9 Cloud services now mainstream
1.10 Tablets and other smart devices clear
winners in a fragmenting entertainment market
1.11 The unstoppable move towards smart
cities
1.11.1 Customer-driven smart cities
1.11.2 Economy-driven smart cities
1.11.3 Society-driven smart cities
1.11.4 Greenfields Opportunities
1.11.5 Brownfields Challenges
1.12 Smart Energy – Australian is right up with
the international leaders
and apps
2. Market and Industry Statistics
2.1 Statistical Overview of the Telecoms
Market – By Provider
2.1.1 Total telecommunications services
market
2.1.2 Telstra
2.1.3 Optus
2.1.4 Vodafone Hutchison Australia
2.1.5 Capital expenditure
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2.2 Statistical Overview of the Telecoms
Market – By Service
2.2.1 Total telco market by major service
2.2.2 Wholesale market
2.2.3 Mobile market
2.2.4 Broadband market
2.3 2nd tier telcos - Revenue Statistics
2.3.1 Service revenues and market shares
3. National Broadband Network - Surveys,
Statistics and Forecasts
3.1 Market Surveys
3.1.1 Deloitte’s Media Consumer Survey -
2014
3.1.2 Privatisation of NBN is not popular
3.1.3 FTTN modelling results
3.1.4 NBN speeds over 25Mbps
3.1.5 Broadband benefits for households
3.1.6 Poll prefers FttP plan above FttN plan
3.1.7 Support for fast broadband via an NBN
3.1.8 Customers prepared to pay for higher speeds
3.1.9 Research into the NBN first release sites
3.1.10 Stats and demographics for the 2012-2015
NBN footprint
3.2 Industry transformation
3.2.1 Introduction
3.2.2 Fixed infrastructure market
3.2.3 Wholesale market
3.2.4 The retail market
3.3 The digital economy - trans-sector market
3.3.1 Forecasts – 2015; 2020
3.3.2 The digital media market
3.4 Business market survey
3.4.1 NBN Business Readiness Survey - 2013
3.4.2 NBN impact on industry output by 2020
3.4.3 Summary of survey findings
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3.5 Business models and mergers and
acquisitions (M&A)
3.5.1 Fixed market scenarios
3.5.2 Mobile market scenarios
4. Broadband Market
4.1 DSL Market
4.1.1 Brief overview of the NBN
4.1.2 Regulatory environment – analysis
4.1.3 DSL infrastructure
4.1.4 Brief overview of broadband
providers market
4.2 Business Market
4.2.1 Market trends
4.2.2 Business market surveys
4.2.3 Business customer expenditure on
telecoms
4.3 Residential Market
4.3.1 Statistical overview residential
market – total telecoms
4.3.2 Internet household statistics
4.3.3 Trends in the residential market
4.3.4 Household use of technology
4.3.5 Other residential market surveys
5. Mobile Communications Market
5.1 Revenue Overview
5.1.1 Statistical sources
5.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
5.1.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
5.1.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
5.2 Subscriber Statistics
5.2.1 Mobile subscriber statistics
5.3 Mobile Broadband Market
5.3.1 Market overview and analysis
5.3.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
5.3.3 Forecasts and other developments
5.3.4 Australia - mobile media – premium rate SMS
(PSMS) portals and apps
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Australia – Telecoms Industry Analysis and Forecast to 2015-2020

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