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Key Issues and Turnaround in Indian Real Estate Sector


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Key Issues and Turnaround in Indian Real Estate Sector

  1. 1. 1 Real Estate Sector In India Group No. - 2
  2. 2. Real Estate Value Chain
  3. 3. Business Model
  4. 4. 4th highest in terms of FDI inflow Constitutes 8% to the GDP Market Size $126 Billion dollar High Input Cost: Increasing Labour Cost Land Cost comprises of 40% of the total project now as compared to 20% in 2005 Government intervention of building minimum 20% affordable housing putting extra burden on developers and ultimately on the rest 80% The construction sector generates the highest level of direct and indirect employment for about 40 million people Approvals and Procedural Difficulties There are almost 50 approvals or more need to be taken for starting a real estate project Properties with Banks under NPA Rs 27,500 crores Indian Real Estate Current Position High Cost of Financing
  5. 5. Debt Details in Rs Cr. Company Name Debt Annual Sales DLF 7390 2360.9 HDIL 184 1152 Unitech 1568 874 Ansal Properties 401 652 Vascon Engineers 108.58 303.16 Prestige Assets 1134.83 2319.13 Parsvnath 1162.61 305.8 Godrej Properties 8.26 239.48 Oberoi Realty 52.46 1173.6 DB Realty 118.97 172.09 Sobha Developers 759.82 1799.34 Puravankara 957.71 972.34 Nitesh Estates 1.34 87.12 Orbit Corporation 262.46 1.81
  6. 6. Market Division and Growth Factors
  7. 7. Project Timeline
  8. 8. Oberoi Realty • The group has its presence in Mumbai since past 27 years and till date; it has developed 33 projects with saleable area of 5 msf • In Mumbai, Oberoi Realty has focused on 4 micro markets (Goregaon east, Andheri east, Mulund and Worli) • It has 13 ongoing projects with saleable area of 10 msf and 11 planned projects with an 10 msf. What makes Oberoi Realty stand out • Strong brand name in premium housing segment • Low debt company  Unlike other real estate companies in the listed market space, Oberoi Realty has a very strong balance sheet with cash balance of INR 3.7 bn and D/E of 0.1 • Revenue recognition happens early as they are not in the business of taking 20% now and 80% later Residential Office Space, Retail projects Hospitality Sale Model, JV with Landowners Lease Model JV, Operating Agreement Model
  9. 9. Oberoi Realty Key Ratios and Financials Particulars FY 17 FY 16 EBITDA Margin (Including Non Operating Income/ Total Revenue) 53.17% 49.29% EBITDA Margin (Excluding Non Operating Income/ Total Operating Income) 51.18% 47.76% PAT Margin 32.34% 29.75% RONW 6.84% 8.64% ROCE 6.22% 8.60% Debt/Equity 0.15 0.09 • EBIDTA Margin for Malls and Commerz stood at 93% and 95% respectively • EBIDTA for only residential business stood at 46% • Debtor days  31 days Creditor days  471 days Inventory days  1,025 days Key concerns • Low footfalls post demonetization and increasing inventory would create short term issues • With RERA act coming into play, every company will be forced to deliver on time. On time delivery is one of the distinguishing factor for Oberoi Realty which would be lost • Delays in projects due to formalities of getting RERA approvals
  10. 10. Unitech Unitech started as a consultancy firm for soil and foundation engineering and has grown to have the most diversified product mix in real estate comprising of world-class commercial complexes, IT/ITes parks, SEZs, integrated residential developments, schools, hotels, malls, golf courses and amusement parks Particulars FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 Operating Profit Margin Ratio 13.40 5.67 22.55 (33.42) (14.85) Net Profit Margin Ratio 8.36 1.57 (4.74) (45.03) (25.38) Particulars FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 ROCE 2.73 2.28 1.17 5.9 (6.63) ROE / RONW 2.05 1.84 0.6 (1.17) (8.98) Financials and Problems with Unitech • Unitech has delayed completion of 74 projects which are either held-up or stopped across the country. • Due to non-completion and non-delivery of flats within the stipulated time, the company has faced 958 litigation from home buyers with National Consumer Disputes Redressal Commission (NCDRC) alone. • 13,337 units of home are yet to be offered for possession to the home buyers under these 41 projects • Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgrades Unitech to underperform • RERA act will further deepen the problems
  11. 11. Unitech What is Unitech doing to resolve its problems • Unitech is increasing its focus on project delivery against launch and sale of new projects • Adoption of new models such as JDA (Joint Development Agreement) and partnering with other real estate players • Unitech also partnered with Godrej Properties for completion of a project in NCR • Even though there was focus on the execution front, progress remained stymied due to liquidity crunch What Next?? • Falling margins need to be aligned  Increasing operational efficiency • Outsourcing some of the operations to speed up the completion of projects
  12. 12. Lodha 353,10 0 283,10 0 1,400162,40 0 3.37 0.03 3.43 3.06 • Sales crossed ₹ 8000 cr. in March 2016, beating DLF Ltd and Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. • The company’s four largest projects are Palava City in Dombivali, the Park in Worli (including Trump Tower), New Cuffe Parade in Wadala and World Towers in Upper Worli. • Lodha group has projects in all 4 segments of Mumbai’s real estate and they have a good mix of high end as well as high momentum projects. Fitch maintains “B” rating with negative outlook Though the sales booking bounced back in February and March this year with bookings of ₹ 6,920 cr. in FY17 from ₹ 6,430 cr. in FY16, the negative outlook reflect the near- term risks to the company's credit profile, in particular refinancing risk associated with sizeable maturities, including financing for its London project, over the next 12 months. Moody’s downgrades Lodha Developers to B2 Moody anticipates that any reductions in home loans from the union budget on Feb 1st will not lead to any near-term material improvement at the high-end of the real estate market and LDLP is mostly represented across the luxury and mid-tier segments. Upgrading of rating will require credit metric like revenue/debt to be above 55% and homebuilding EBIT/Interest exceeds 2.0x on a sustained basis.
  13. 13. The Way Ahead Taking advantage of GST • As GST gets implemented, warehousing will be determined by the efficiency of the operations as compared to the location. • According to Abhishek Lodha, the group is building a new portfolio, under which a 150-acre warehousing and logistics park is being developed near Mumbai. • CBRE claims that demand of warehouses remained strong in 2016. Opting for HDFC Property $500 mn. Fund • HDFC is set to launch a $500 million offshore fund that it has been planning since early 2016, a company executive said. • The fund will invest up to 40% in office spaces and the rest in residential projects with a focus on affordable housing. • Lodha group is planning to build 9 million sq. ft of office space and should consider this fund. Go for IPO • Lodha group can restructure it’s capital by going for IPO and reduce leverage. • Lodha Group can look for investments from marquee American investor KKR & Co. • KKR & Co. wishes to spend around $150 million in the IPO. • The stock market listing will also aid the company’s plan of starting a real estate investment trust (REIT) as it seeks to expand its commercial property portfolio. Learnings from UK business • Lodha Developers is expecting sales revenue of 1.5 billion pounds (over Rs 12,000 crore) in the next three years from two ongoing housing projects in the central parts of this city. • The company should take forward its learnings about quality and design from the London market to India business.
  14. 14. DLF • DLF has an asset heavy model as its portfolio is heavy on high end commercial spaces that are leased out. • The company has Rs 14,000 crore of inventory in its ongoing projects which includes Rs 3,000 crore of inventory in ready projects (mostly commercial projects) . • The company remains focused on its strategy of executing its ongoing projects to create finished un-launched inventory. • On weak collections and continued spend towards construction and overheads (including interest), the company faced cash flow deficit in Q4 (on the expected lines), increasing the debt by Rs 700 crore to Rs 25,100 crore (includes net debt of Rs 7,000 crore in DCCDL). • Strategies that are being executed currently are • Create a high quality long term portfolio • Reduce debt and improve the quality of debt • Focus on Core market • The company has improved its profitability by focussing on completing existing projects • It has obtained the approvals for developing 2.5 mn sqft for Chennai IT SEZ • But the strategy to not start new projects has impacted its estimated revenues for the next 2 fiscal years • They also do not have presence in tier 2 and tier 3 cities and may miss out on the high growth that is expected
  15. 15. DLF 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Management Efficiency Inventory Turnover Ratio Investments Turnover Ratio Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio Total Assets Turnover Ratio Asset Turnover Ratio Debtors Turnover Ratio 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DLF Revenues and Profit Revenue Profit
  16. 16. Omaxe • The projects developed by the Group span across 9 states including 30 cities. Group is presently at the helm of 46 projects which add up to a total of 31.8 million sq ft of space which is under development. • The notable residential projects helmed by Group which are presently under construction include Forest Spa and Palm Greens in Noida and Spa Village in Faridabad. • The group has a diverse portfolio in both commercial and residential project areas. • Omaxe has reduced its debt equity ratio over the past 2 years • It has improved its profitability as it has concentrated on tier 2 and tier 3 cities projects completion which showed high growth • Omaxe has to improve on its ability to deliver its projects on time with the advent of RERA
  17. 17. Omaxe 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Management efficiency Debtors Turnover Ratio Investments Turnover Ratio Total Assets Turnover Ratio 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PAT(crores) Revenue(crores) Revenue and Profit Revenue PAT
  18. 18. Asset Light is Right • Asset-heavy and vertically integrated models offer superior control, but they tie up significant capital and prove less flexible in a fast-changing environment. • Asset light model offers the following advantages: • Better ROA : Assets are removed from the balance sheet • Lower profit volatility : Costs are more variable in nature. Net income not dependent on utilization • Greater flexibility : Low dependence on legacy assets improves flexibility  Respond faster to changes in demand • Higher scale driven cost saving : Benefits of assets ownership without intensive capital investment
  19. 19. Godrej Properties • Created in 1990, GPL pioneered the concept of Asset Light development model in the real estate sector • JV model, Development manager fee model & Redevelopment model  Share of revenue / profits from sale • Outsourcing of architecture and construction to good vendors ensures a lean structure / operations • GPL is the first real estate company in India to have ISO certification  Enhances the strong “ Godrej” brand • Early monetization of projects. A unique Co-investment platform offers better deals to PE investors • CII – Sohrabji Godrej Green Business Centre (a group company) offers advisory services to the industry in the areas of green buildings, energy efficiency, water management • ~15% revenue without any capital investments  Design, marketing and sales of projects on a fee basis Land Identification Project Planning Branding, Sales & Marketing Approvals Land Acquisition JDA with local partners Construction Design & Structural Pan India contract with Pelli Clarle Pelli & PG Patki Architects Pan India contract with L&T Value Addition by GPL Activities Outsourced Mitigation of Investment Risk Mitigation of Execution Risk
  20. 20. TATA HOUSING • In 2006, while RE sector was booming in India, Tata Housing had negative net worth of 10 crore • Brotin Banerjee assigned with turning around the firm ( without using the TATA brand!! ) • No quality land bank, no borrowing capability and no employee willing to join the firm • Initially company targeted the low margin affordable housing segment (Value Homes @ 5 – 15L / unit) • When the RE sector crashed in 2008, the best on affordable housing paid off as demand remained strong • Existing developers sold property in tranches, but THDC adopted “Construct quickly & move on” approach • “Tata Value Homes” formed in 2009 to focus on affordable housing  Contributed ~500Cr. To top line by 2012 • Company adopted a “ Joint development model” to develop projects on prime land without initial debt • JDA’s were signed with land owners for a fixed amount with a ceiling (floor and cap model) • Alternately, a JV was formed (majority partner) and with owner getting a fixed percentage of topline • Company diversified into various segments ( premium & luxury ) to de-risk the business • Created affordable housing brands like Shubh Griha & New Haven • From a turnover of 36 Cr in 2007 company achieved turnover of 1100 Cr in 2016  CAGR 46%
  21. 21. Private Equity Investments in Real Estate Three broad investment phases within Indian real estate Opportunistic investments Structured Equity Investors Long-Term Partnership PE investment peaked in 2007–08 and then fell in 2009–10. Since then, a gradual and a steady growth in PE activity has been visible
  22. 22. 1. Opportunistic investments Sequence of events • Through PN 3, DIPP allowed FDI into real estate in 2003 • Huge scope and underlying demand, India attracted PE both India and foreign • Investment scene started upward trajectory with issue of PN 2, sped till GFC Fund characteristics • Majority of the funds denominated in US dollars and Singapore dollars indicating keen interest of foreign investors • Few funds focused on residential and retail, 66% had diverse options Wrap-up • This phase saw investment activity peak in India, various eye catching deals • Many investors gained multiple returns, a few suffered losses due to GFC • Profit losses caused by- entry price point, developer credibility and intensity of due deligence
  23. 23. 2. Structured Equity Investors Sequence of events • Scenario turned upside down owing to GFC , was a dry spell for investments • Only USD 3.9 billion raised in over 5 years Fund characteristics • Limited funds but showed more focus • More participation from Indian investors • Structure equity became the preferred route 2009 ownwards Wrap-up • This phase saw bottom of investment activity and its recovery to some extent • Attractive entry point for investors helped achieve good investment returns • The structured equity route, a better focus on asset classes and geographical locations, and a more intensive due diligence were a few other key factors behind the good returns
  24. 24. 3. Long term partnerships Sequence of events •Phase started with positivity surrounding the elections and in anticipation of a government led by Narendra Modi. •Fundraising activity started to pick at a good pace even before the election results and continued to get better following its outcome •Focus on longterm partnerships, largely platform-level deals, with developers that have an established track record Fund characteristics •Creation of public markets for commercial assets in the form of REITs •Appetite for industrial and warehouses is increasing; passing of GST Bill also helped seed up investment. •Shortages in quality retail space and increasing rental values have attracted PE players towards the retail segment in the last two years Wrap-up •Despite demonetisation and an overall poor scenario in the real estate industry, PE inflows saw 62% increase •With change in regulatory framework, country looking way more attractive to investors – both foreign and domestic – than ever before •Developers under pressure due to RERA and demonetisation, developers would be open to providing good entry points to the long-term equity investors
  25. 25. Why PE firms are investing in India? • Relaxed FDI norms • Govt regulations on banks to reduce credit given to real estate sector • Government’s push for affordable housing • Shortages in quality retail space and increasing renta How PE have helped real estate in India? • PE makes up 75% of funds propping up in property market • Refinancing debt PE investment deals in real estate • Warburg Pincus invested US $ 268.4 million in Piramal Realty for a minority stake in the company • Blackstone Advisors India invested US $70 million in a commercial project of Salarpuria Sarrva Realty LLP. • Kotak Realty Fund, has raised US$ 250 million for projects across India's top six property markets
  26. 26. Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 The act was passed by parliament last year and the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation had given time till May 1, 2017, to formulate and notify rules for the functioning of the regulator. 01 Establishment of the regulatory authority: Each state and Union territory will have its own regulator and set of rules to govern the functioning of the regulator Compulsory registration: • It is mandatory for all projects pertaining to commercial and residential real estate to mandatorily register with the Real Estate Regulatory Authority India[RERA]. • Builders are required to submit the original approved plans for their ongoing projects and the alterations that they made later. The details of all registered projects will be put up on a website for public access. • Developers can’t invite, advertise, sell, offer, market or book any plot, apartment, house, building, investment in projects, without first registering it with the regulatory authority. 02 03 Reserve account: The promoter of a real estate development firm has to maintain a separate escrow account for each of their projects. A minimum 70% of the money from investors and buyers will have to be deposited. Continual disclosures by promoters: Home buyers will be able to monitor the progress of the project on the RERA website since promoters will be required to make periodic submissions to the regulator regarding the progress of the project. 04 05 Standardisation of sale agreement: The Act prescribes a standard model sale agreement to be entered into between promoters and homebuyers. Penalty: To ensure that violation of the Act is not taken lightly, stiff monetary penalty (up to 10% of the project cost) and imprisonment has been prescribed against violators. 06
  27. 27. 1. Commercial and residential projects including plotted development. 2. Projects measuring more than 500 sq mts or 8 units. 3. Projects without Completion Certificate, before commencement of the Act. 4. The project only for the purpose of renovation / repair / re-development which does not involve re-allotment and marketing, advertising, selling or new allotment of any apartments, plot or building in the real estate project, will not come under RERA. PROJECTS UNDER RERA ADVANTAGES OF RERA IMPACT ON PRICE 1. Governance and transparency 2. Project efficiency and robust project delivery 3. Standardization and quality 4. Enhance confidence of investors 5. Attract higher investments and PE funding 6. Regulated Environment 7. Consolidation of sector 8. Safety of money and transparency on utilization 9. Balanced agreements and treatment. 1. Due to stipulated compliances and regulations, the project launches may occur with lesser frequency than before. 2. The sale of projects on a carpet area basis is likely to result in the per square feet price of the project going up by about 40% to 50% of the price based on the super built area. 3. In accordance with RERA guidelines, a price readjustment may be in order. 4. Transfer of risk will lead to price rise - Initially the risk on account of delays, quality, changes, etc. was borne by the buyer. Customers were forced to bear the cost of the default. Now, since the risk will be borne by developers, there might be consequential premium that flat purchasers might have to pay.
  28. 28. IMPACT ON INSURANCE COST FOR CONSTRUCTION AND LAND TITLE 1. Shift from debt financing to equity financing as prelaunch concept may end. 2. Funds for land and approval cost to be made through equity, leading to rise in cost od capital. 3. Increase in launch time as finer details such as complete drawing, utilities layout, etc. will need to be finalized before launching the project. IMPACT ON REAL ESTATE AGENTS 1. Broker segment- unorganized and unregulated. Approx a USD 4 billion industry, with an estimated 5,00,000 to 9,00,000 brokers. 2. Real estate agents need to register themselves, to be able to facilitate a transaction. 3. Agents responsible for disclosing all the appropriate information to the customer and for helping them chose a RERA-compliant developer. 4. Less profit earned due to increased cost of compliance. 5. RERA to filter out the inexperienced, unprofessional, fly-by- night operators, as brokers not following the guidelines will face hefty penalty or jail or both. IMPACT ON SMALL DEVELOPERS 1. Strong financial and execution capability is required to launch a project. With frequent delay in obtaining approvals, debt funding not an ideal route for developers. 2. Smaller developers would find it difficult to meet their cash flow requirements due to prohibition on pre-sales until a project is registered. 3. Implementation of RERA may entail initial hiccups across the states and hence the more established and bigger developers would be at an advantageous position compared to the small and marginal developers when it comes to adhering to regulations. 4. Small developers may merge or tie-up with large developers and then co-develop properties. Expected to witness large scale consolidation. IMPACT ANALYSIS
  29. 29. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) What is REIT?? Investment vehicle allowing investors to earn income produced in a income generating real estate asset. Reason for Introduction - Liquidity a. Attract private Investment b. Free Up Capital c. Monetize Assets d. Increase in entry and exit opportunities for developers Reason for Introduction - Business a. Transformation of Business from asset heavy to asset light model b. Focus on core competency c. Segregation of operations and infrastructure d. Easier avenue to raise capital for small developers e. Many banks have hit the sectoral caps Reason for Introduction - Financing a. Replacement of Bank debt to long term equity capital – Lower cost of capital b. Reduced exposure for Banks Reason for Introduction – Corporate Governance a. Improvement in transparency, disclosure standards and professionalism within the sector b. Informed decision-making enabled for investors c. Sign of maturity of Indian RealEstate Sector Market Potential a. Approximately $121 billion or 1.73 billion sq ft of occupied commercial real estate across office, retail and warehouse segments could potentially benefit from the REIT opportunity b. The ready commercial space eligible for REIT investments amounts to 277 million sq ft, accounting for 44 per cent of total office stock in India. The REIT-eligible commercial office stock is estimated to have a total value of $44-53 billion. In retail assets, the estimated value of REIT-eligible stock (completed and under-construction malls) is around $20-24 billion.
  30. 30. Proposal 1 6 5 43 2 Grant infrastructure status to real estate sector – Will reduce the risk weightage assigned by RBI Allow developers to raise funds through ECB Streamlining of approval mechanism Expedite digitization of land records Release surplus land – monetize Create robust physical and support infrastructure
  31. 31. GROUP NO. - 2 Mayank Kumar A031 Gautam Chhabra C016 Sumit Jakhar C026 Kena Kothari C034 Akshay Kumar C035 Snigdha Narayan C044 Ketan Yagnick C065 Vikas Garg C023 Thank You

Notes de l'éditeur

  • 1.The foreign direct investment policy enforced conditions with regards to project status, project size, lock-in periods, etc. due to which the eligible stock of real estate projects for foreign investors was limited predominantly to large projects with development size of over 0.54 million sq. ft.
    Owing to relaxation in FDI norms in 2014 and 2015 the entire real estate stock is now accessible to foreign investors.
    2. Private Equity (PE) players have replaced banks and are currently the biggest source of institutional finance for Indian real estate industry. Rising non-performing assets, higher risk provisioning and mounting losses in the real estate industry have led to significant reduction in credit offered by banks
    3. Shortages in quality retail space and increasing rental values have attracted PE players towards the retail segment in the last two years. Eg. Blackstone’s purchase of L&T Realty’s Seawood Mall and GIC’s investment in Sheth Developer’s Viviana Mall)
    4. With affordable housing getting infrastructure status and end-users getting access to cheaper funds, private equity investors may find the segment to be very lucrative.
    The government’s focus on ‘Housing for All’ also creates opportunities for investors, as the sector will need far greater funds than what is currently available to developers.
    The implementation of the Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA) will also improve project deliveries. Consequently, the demand for affordable housing, is expected to remain
    strong in the coming years and PE investors will look for projects that show good prospects.

    2.The real estate sector has largely relied on refinancing, to meet its debt servicing obligations, given the negative cash flows. The sector has seen significant interest from non-banking finance companies and private equity investors for refinancing debt. Such refinancing provides a cushion for developers to hold prices despite slow sales.”

    Blackstone Advisors India invested US $70 million in a commercial project of Salarpuria Sarrva Realty LLP. Located at Knowledge Park, which is an office park Hyderabad, it is the first investment by the firm in the city. The project is being developed into an office space of about six million square feet and its construction is likely to be completed within four to five years. 

    Real estate private equity fund of the Kotak group, Kotak Realty Fund, has raised US$ 250 million from institutional investors for equity investments in realty projects across India's top six property markets including Mumbai, Delhi, Pune, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai over the next 24 to 36 months.