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McKinsey European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping Spanish consumer behavior

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McKinsey European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping Spanish consumer behavior

Spanish consumers are primarily concerned about inflation and the invasion of Ukraine, and are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy.

Only 14 percent of Spanish consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, with concerns focused on inflation and the invasion of Ukraine. Four in ten have an increasingly negative sense of the economic outlook—mostly due to petrol and supply-chain shortages, as well as unemployment. Price-increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high regarding groceries (at 95 percent) and other household products. In these categories, more than half of respondents have reacted to inflation by trying less costly brands. Over the last six weeks, half have tried a private-label brand, 30 percent have switched brands, and a quarter have tried out a different retailer.

Spanish consumers are primarily concerned about inflation and the invasion of Ukraine, and are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy.

Only 14 percent of Spanish consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, with concerns focused on inflation and the invasion of Ukraine. Four in ten have an increasingly negative sense of the economic outlook—mostly due to petrol and supply-chain shortages, as well as unemployment. Price-increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high regarding groceries (at 95 percent) and other household products. In these categories, more than half of respondents have reacted to inflation by trying less costly brands. Over the last six weeks, half have tried a private-label brand, 30 percent have switched brands, and a quarter have tried out a different retailer.

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McKinsey European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping Spanish consumer behavior

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion of Ukraine are also rapidly evolving and inherently uncertain. As a result, this document and the data and analysis it sets out should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues.
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022 New sources of concern and tumbling confidence in overall economy Sharply rising prices on essentials with noticeable consequences on spend Noticeable activity, demand, and channel and brand shifts in search for value for money 1 2 3 How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting? The top source of concern for Spanish consumers is rising prices, cited by 47%, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (21%) 42% of Spaniards are pessimistic about economic recovery, in contrast to 17% in October 2021 The main reasons for the negative view are gasoline shortages (cited by 46%), supply chain shortages (44%), and the unemployment rate (37%) 94% of Spanish consumers have perceived a price change, almost always an increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high in groceries (cited by 95%), pet food (80%), and personal care (77%) On top of that, 62% of Spanish consumers predict that prices will keep rising Half of consumers say that in the last 6 weeks, they tried a private-label brand, 30% a new brand, and 30% a new retailer, with 34% shopping more at discounters A majority of grocery consumers have traded down or switched to private labels, particularly in household products, snacks, and dairy; value and price are the main reasons to try a new brand Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Despite the pandemic’s continuing grip on societies in Europe, rising prices and invasion of Ukraine have now by far overtaken COVID-19 as top concerns for consumers Germany UK Italy France2 Spain 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, due to rounding. 2. For France, political insecurity (9%) and immigration (8%) are concerns mentioned by more than 5% of consumers. Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 12 5 7 8 24 44 Europe 5 9 21 11 9 8 7 8 6 11 14 8 6 7 11 7 34 18 15 32 21 40 44 60 32 47 3 3 2 4 4 Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Unemployment/job security Extreme weather events Other Top source of concern1 % of respondents
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Rising prices emerges as the top concern among Spanish consumers, followed by the invasion of Ukraine and unemployment 83 58 47 41 23 22 14 10 1 1 Cost/accessibility of healthcare Rising prices Extreme weather events/climate change Invasion of Ukraine Unemployment/job security COVID-19 pandemic Political uncertainty Immigration Brexit Other 1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3. 2. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? 47 21 14 7 3 3 2 3 1 0 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years Among top 3 sources of concern1 Top source of concern2 Top sources of concern today % of respondents
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Concern about rising prices is consistent across consumer groups; relevance of the invasion of Ukraine varies by age and income Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 8 7 14 21 47 3 Overall 6 10 9 8 5 9 21 8 10 15 25 26 47 49 45 High income 3 3 Low income 1 Middle income 11 10 8 8 10 20 17 16 6 16 15 21 29 46 48 47 47 4 2 Baby boomers Gen Z 5 3 Millennials 3 Gen X 2 5 Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Unemployment Extreme weather events Other2 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? 2. Other includes immigration, cost and accessibility of healthcare, Brexit, and political uncertainty. Top source of concern1 % of respondents Split by generation Split by income
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Ukraine invasion particularly concerns baby boomers and high- income consumers; low-income consumers focus on rising prices 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 83 58 47 41 23 22 14 10 1 1 Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine Unemployment/job security Extreme weather events/climate change COVID-19 pandemic Immigration Political uncertainty Cost/accessibility of healthcare Brexit Other 86 52 55 38 24 21 15 8 1 2 81 62 43 42 22 21 15 11 1 1 78 65 35 46 22 29 11 14 1 0 79 58 48 32 39 20 18 6 1 0 84 49 51 34 22 28 17 11 3 2 82 61 50 41 20 21 13 11 0 1 84 64 38 51 19 20 11 11 1 2 Top 3 sources of concern1 % of respondents Middle income High income Low income Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers Split by generation Split by income
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Almost two out of three consumers are negative about their own country’s current state of the economy, with Spain having the highest share of negative responses 55 58 61 63 67 32 29 24 26 22 13 13 15 11 11 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 61 27 13 Positive Neutral Negative Net confidence2 −42 −56 −52 −45 −46 −48 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative" answers from all "positive" answers. Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents Germany UK Italy France Spain Europe 5
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Only 11 percent of consumers view the economy positively, though higher-income and younger consumers have more positive views 67 22 11 Negative Overall Positive Neutral 70 65 67 21 24 16 17 High (>50K) 11 9 Low (<25K) Middle (25K–50K) 70 59 69 73 16 26 23 19 14 15 Gen Z 8 Millennials Gen X 9 Baby boomers3 By income2 By generation Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Income brackets shown in € apply to France, Germany, Italy, Spain; for UK, the same brackets were used with £. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Spanish consumers concerned about rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine are more pessimistic about the current economy 73 67 54 51 45 18 22 31 32 38 10 10 15 17 17 COVID-19 pandemic Invasion of Ukraine Political uncertainty Rising prices Extreme weather events3 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 67 22 11 Neutral Overall Positive Negative 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative”; Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative/very negative" answers from all "positive/very positive" answers. Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents who selected this top source of concern Net confidence2 −63 −28 −33 −57 −38 −56
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Supply-related risks are the most common concerns for consumers with a negative outlook on the economy 1. Q: You mentioned that you are feeling negatively about [COUNTRY]’s economy in light of the Ukraine invasion. Which of the following topics are you most uncertain about? Please select up to 3. Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Bars only show reasons with agreement >20%. Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 47 42 39 31 27 26 24 16 12 9 3 0 Risk of nuclear disaster Unemployment rates/job security Energy shortages Impact of influx of refugees Interruption of gasoline supply Food shortages Supply chain shortages Risk of further escalation of the war Rising interest rates Uncertainty on the stock market Restrictions on international travel Other 41 50 53 33 19 22 14 23 14 8 2 1 45 44 36 29 22 33 20 17 12 10 3 1 53 40 43 30 19 31 33 12 11 7 3 0 49 32 41 29 37 20 23 15 13 11 3 0 46 44 24 34 39 24 28 11 12 10 2 0 Top 3 reasons for negative view on economy1 % of respondents who perceived the current status of economy and/or the economy's outlook as negative Germany UK Italy France Spain Europe 5
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 38 41 41 39 42 40 31 17 24 42 46 46 45 48 47 47 52 50 52 44 17 13 14 13 11 13 17 33 24 14 Mar 2020 Oct 2021 Apr 2020 May 2020 June 2020 Nov 2020 Sept 2020 Feb 2021 Mar 2022 Apr 20223 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12-4/18/2022, n = 1,016; 22/03-29/03/2020, n = 1002 , 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,023; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,005; 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 1,014; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 1,054; 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 1,007; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 1,010; 4/30–5/3/2020, n = 1,004; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,006; 4/2– 4/5/2020, n = 1,006; 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 1,003; 3/20–3/22/2020, n = 1,002, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years In Spain, pessimism regarding economy recovery has significantly increased since October 2021, rising from 17 percent to 42 percent Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Neutral: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession 20202 2021 2022 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after crisis1 % of respondents 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”; Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020. 3. Question in Apr 2022 was not framed for coronavirus: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022?
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 33 35 35 38 42 52 51 49 50 44 14 14 16 12 14 Pessimism about economic recovery is high across countries and more than doubled since October 2021 18 −17 25 −23 24 −19 19 −23 13 −19 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis1 % of respondents Germany Apr 12–18, 2022 Change in % pessimistic vs Oct 2021 survey, percentage points Change in % optimistic vs Oct 2021 survey, percentage points Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before the current crisis Neutral: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: The current crisis will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession Italy Apr 12–18 UK Apr 12–18 France Apr 12–18 Spain Apr 12–18, 2022
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Higher-income and younger individuals have more optimistic expectations regarding an economic recovery 42 44 14 Pessimistic Overall Optimistic Neutral 43 37 49 46 47 33 15 18 Middle (25K–50K) Low (<25K) 11 High (>50K) 25 36 47 48 57 44 41 43 17 20 12 Gen Z 9 Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 By income2 By generation Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom two boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Income brackets shown in € apply for France, Germany, Italy, Spain; for UK; same brackets were used with £. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Confidence in own country’s expected economic recovery after current crisis1 % of respondents
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022 New sources of concern and tumbling confidence in overall economy Sharply rising prices on essentials with noticeable consequences on spend Noticeable activity, demand, and channel and brand shifts in search for value for money 1 2 3 How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting? The top source of concern for Spanish consumers is rising prices, cited by 47%, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (21%) 42% of Spaniards are pessimistic about economic recovery, in contrast to 17% in October 2021 The main reasons for the negative view are gasoline shortages (cited by 46%), supply chain shortages (44%), and the unemployment rate (37%) 94% of Spanish consumers have perceived a price change, almost always an increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high in groceries (cited by 95%), pet food (80%), and personal care (77%) On top of that, 62% of Spanish consumers predict that prices will keep rising Half of consumers say that in the last 6 weeks, they tried a private-label brand, 30% a new brand, and 30% a new retailer, with 34% shopping more at discounters A majority of grocery consumers have traded down or switched to private labels, particularly in household products, snacks, and dairy; value and price are the main reasons to try a new brand Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Across the five countries surveyed, the vast majority of respondents observed price changes 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general change in the prices of any goods you commonly buy? Inflation, year-over-year, Mar 2022, % 7.6 5.1 7.0 6.8 9.8 7 93 11 89 12 88 10 90 6 94 Source: OECD (inflation data); McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) sampled to match European general population 18+ years 9 91 Yes No Germany UK Italy France Spain Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Europe 5
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Most Spanish consumers indicate they perceived a price change; perceived increases are highest in groceries and personal care 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general increase in the prices of any goods you commonly buy? 2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.” 3. Calculated by subtracting all "decreased" answers from all "increased/significantly increased" answers. 2 14 12 17 18 24 24 28 30 25 30 29 29 27 40 37 25 46 43 43 47 42 34 36 35 38 37 35 31 31 32 20 70 34 37 37 30 23 26 22 22 19 19 19 20 18 17 16 5 8 3 4 11 16 13 12 16 12 16 19 21 11 24 1 Pet food and supplies Kitchen and dining products 1 1 Groceries/food for home 3 1 Household supplies Skin care and makeup 1 1 1 Personal-care products 1 1 Consumer electronics Apparel Home improvement, gardening supplies Footwear 1 Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine 2 Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies 1 2 1 Home decoration and furniture Accessories 1 Fitness and wellness services 2 Jewelry Increased Decreased Stayed the same Increased significantly Not sure Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks General price change perceived1 % of respondents Price change perceived by category2 % of respondents who shopped category 6 94 No Yes Net change3 94 80 79 79 76 64 59 58 57 56 55 52 49 47 47 34 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 About three-fourths of consumers, especially older ones, are concerned about rising prices; 62 percent expect further increases 77 62 50 39 15 I am concerned that the prices of everyday purchases have been increasing I have had to scale back my lifestyle due to an increase in prices I believe prices will continue to rise throughout the next 12 months I am planning to buy fewer products/services in the future if prices continue to rise I intend to use more “buy now, pay later” services in the coming months 68 74 78 82 53 63 62 65 49 51 50 50 39 43 40 35 16 21 15 Statements Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 Generational cut Agreement with price-related statements % of respondents rating top-2-boxes1 Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points 1. Q: Please read the following statements and indicate your level of agreement with each: Rated from 1 "Strongly disagree" to 6 "Strongly agree.” 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. All consumers 10 Source: OECD, McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 As spend on essential products rises, consumers save less and spend less on nonfood discretionary items—and expect further cuts 1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.” “Last 4–6 weeks” refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine. 2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change. 3. Calculated by subtracting all "lower/much lower" answers from all "higher/much higher" answer in each column/time frame. 11 19 23 18 37 52 71 24 22 32 38 40 18 57 55 50 25 8 Rent/ mortgage Energy/ utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Net change3 7 −11 32 38 32 −44 2 −19 25 19 15 −30 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years Higher Lower About the same 14 23 27 17 39 43 70 35 31 42 40 44 16 42 42 42 21 13 Rent/ mortgage Energy/ utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Change and intended change of spend in general categories % of respondents Change in spend in the last 4–6 weeks1 Intended change in spend in the next 4–6 weeks2
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Majorities of consumers report spend increases and expect further increases in energy, transport and gasoline, and food 1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased,” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.” "Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine. 2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more,” as well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change. 3. Calculated by adding the blue highlighted cells, ie, increased past spend or expect to increase future spend, excluding consumers that have decreased or expect to decrease their spend. Change of spend in general categories in last 4–6 weeks1 and expected in next 4–6 weeks,2 % of respondents Calculation example Observed/expected price increase,³ % 23 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years Decrease No change Increase Decrease 4 3 1 No change 4 63 6 Increase 2 7 10 Change of spend in next 4–6 weeks, % Change in spend in last 4–6 weeks, % Germany UK Italy France Spain 25 66 62 69 34 19 21 55 55 53 25 9 31 76 60 62 26 9 15 62 50 41 23 10 21 53 50 52 25 10 Energy/utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Rent/mortgage Europe 5 23 62 55 55 27 12 Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Observed/expected price increase,³ %
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 17 −11 −25 −25 −27 −21 −31 −27 −51 −43 −33 −11 −4 −41 −31 −35 −12 −19 Net change,3 next 4–6 weeks Majority of consumers expect to spend less than usual across most categories; groceries and gasoline are exceptions Net change > 1 Net change −15 to 1 Net change < −15 10 18 36 37 42 40 41 43 54 51 39 18 14 27 48 40 40 24 40 14 17 12 14 17 11 6 7 16 13 12 7 11 21 10 Alcohol Food takeout and delivery Quick-service restaurant Groceries Restaurant Tobacco products Footwear Apparel Jewelry Accessories 10 Toys and baby supplies Household supplies Personal-care products Home improvement, garden Skin care and makeup Home and furniture Sports and outdoors 10 Kitchen and dining 11 27 13 38 38 44 30 28 34 19 25 39 30 38 43 45 49 41 16 13 8 9 14 13 11 12 9 53 22 15 30 18 15 16 10 16 Books/magazines/newspapers Travel by car Entertainment at home Gasoline Vitamins and OTC medicine Pet food and supplies Consumer electronics Vehicles Out-of-home entertainment Pet care services Fitness and wellness Personal-care services Short-term home rentals Hotel/resort stays Cruises Adventures and tours International flights Domestic flights −5 −30 −25 −31 −19 −17 −25 35 −24 0 −20 −28 −29 −39 −14 −3 5 −2 −20 −11 −25 −32 −24 −22 −18 −26 17 −13 −24 −4 −18 −21 −14 −30 −25 −21 −48 29 −29 −3 −41 −4 −20 −26 −28 −23 −30 −32 −44 −1 −15 −29 −30 −3 1. Q: In the past 4–6 weeks, how has the amount you have spent on these categories changed? “Spent less on this category”; “spent the same amount”; “spent more on this category.” 2. Q: Over the next 4–6 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? “Will spend less on this category”; “will spend about the same”; “will spend more on this category.” 3. Net change is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they decreased spend or expect to decrease spend from the % of respondents stating they increased spend or expect to increase spend in the respective category. Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years Net change,3 next 4–6 weeks Net change,3 last 4–6 weeks Change, last 4– 6 weeks Net change > +15 Net change −15 to +15 Net change < −15 xx xx xx Change1 or expected change2 of spend % of respondents who shopped category Net change,3 last 4–6 weeks Change, last 4–6 weeks
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Most consumers have become more conscious about their home energy use and have modified transport habits to save gasoline 1. Q: In which other areas of your life, if any, have you changed your shopping behavior in the last 4–6 weeks? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 56 34 21 17 17 15 14 8 8 7 5 5 4 16 I have started/increased my purchase of products from companies that have taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine I have stocked up on products (eg, grocery or household items) that I use often in the event that there are supply chain shortages I have changed my mode of transport to use less gasoline/to save money I have sped up my plan to purchase a new home I have become more conscious about my home energy usage I have delayed/canceled a pending trip/vacation I have purchased supplies to donate to the Ukraine humanitarian effort and/or have donated money or time to volunteer I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from Russian companies I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a car/other vehicle I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from companies that have not taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a new home I have sold/plan to sell my car or other vehicle I have offered to shelter/sponsor Ukrainian refugees None of these Change in purchase behavior in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Generational cut Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 48 57 51 64 44 35 30 35 18 21 22 21 17 20 18 14 12 13 20 20 14 18 15 13 10 15 16 13 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 8 11 11 8 2 6 7 4 3 6 6 7 1 6 5 5 2 13 12 15 20 All consumers
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022 New sources of concern and tumbling confidence in overall economy Sharply rising prices on essentials with noticeable consequences on spend Noticeable activity, demand, and channel and brand shifts in search for value for money 1 2 3 How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting? The top source of concern for Spanish consumers is rising prices, cited by 47%, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (21%) 42% of Spaniards are pessimistic about economic recovery, in contrast to 17% in October 2021 The main reasons for the negative view are gasoline shortages (cited by 46%), supply chain shortages (44%), and the unemployment rate (37%) 94% of Spanish consumers have perceived a price change, almost always an increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high in groceries (cited by 95%), pet food (80%), and personal care (77%) On top of that, 62% of Spanish consumers predict that prices will keep rising Half of consumers say that in the last 6 weeks, they tried a private-label brand, 30% a new brand, and 30% a new retailer, with 34% shopping more at discounters A majority of grocery consumers have traded down or switched to private labels, particularly in household products, snacks, and dairy; value and price are the main reasons to try a new brand Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23 Half of consumers say they tried a private label in the last six weeks; nearly three in ten switched to another brand or retailer 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? 2. Q: How likely are you to change your shopping behavior in the next 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? Rated from 1 "Not likely at all" to 6 "Extremely likely"; percentages represent “Likely” plus “Extremely likely.” 3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned. 95% of consumers noticed a price increase when shopping for groceries and essentials Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years v 75 50 30 26 17 15 13 10 9 Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store Switch to a different brand than normal Try a private-label brand Shop from a different retailer/store than normal Switch from a brick-and-mortar store to online Shop from a different website than normal Try a new digital shopping method (eg, ordered groceries via app) Use a new shopping method (eg, pickup or food delivery subscriptions) Did activities in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Plan to do activities in next 4–6 weeks2 % of respondents who did not do activity in the last 4–6 weeks Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials 41 26 14 12 7 8 9 16 8 Activities Total: Any new shopping behavior3
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24 75 50 30 26 17 15 13 10 9 Shop from a different retailer/store than normal Total: Any new shopping behavior3 Try a private-label brand Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store Try a new digital shipping method (eg, ordered groceries via app) Shop from a different website than normal Switch to a different brand than normal Switched from brick-and-mortar to online Use a new shopping method (eg, pickup or food delivery subscriptions) Three in four consumers shopping for groceries and essentials have tried a new shopping behavior in the last six weeks Generational cut All consumers Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. 3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned. Activities when shopping for groceries/ essentials in last 4–6 weeks,1 % of respondents Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Gen Z 84 53 43 31 26 22 29 14 14 Millennials 74 50 38 33 28 21 19 13 14 Gen X 61 43 28 23 13 12 8 9 7 Baby boomers 87 62 20 19 7 10 5 7 3 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  25. 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Many consumers have switched to shopping at discounters, turning away from specialty grocery stores and hypermarkets Retailer formats changed to in past 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal Retail format Shopping in last 4–6 weeks, % of consumers 5 17 42 16 13 18 27 28 33 50 63 46 26 43 35 14 11 4 7 Specialty grocery store Hypermarket 1 Discounter Supermarket Convenience store Did not shop there Shopped more Shopped less Shopped same amount 1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you started shopping from a different retailer or store than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. How has your shopping at the following types of retailers/stores changed? 2. Calculated by subtracting all "shopped less" answers from all "shopped more" answers. 26% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks Net change2 22 −4 −26 −15 −25 Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years
  26. 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Top reasons to change retailers are price and value for money for millennials, proximity and value for baby boomers 1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a different retailer/store in the past 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products). What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons. 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup - here generational cut. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Between −15 and +15 < −15 > +15 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points 26% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years All consumers Top reasons for choice of new retailer/store for groceries/essentials1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks 41 39 27 24 22 15 15 15 14 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 2 More easily accessible from my home Better value for money Supporting local businesses Better prices/promotions Wanted to treat myself Better quality Products are in stock Less crowded/has shorter lines Family/friend recommendations Cleaner/has better hygiene measures I wanted to save on the cost of gasoline Wanted variety/a change from normal Offers natural/organic offerings More sustainable/environmentally friendly The company treats its employees well I can get all the items I need from 1 place Shares my values Their response to the invasion of Ukraine 45 46 26 24 20 12 22 17 14 8 9 12 3 5 5 1 8 3 Millennials 34 42 25 26 19 14 12 19 14 10 4 4 7 5 3 1 4 3 Gen X 44 18 15 26 33 21 13 10 21 8 13 8 13 10 5 3 13 10 Gen Z 42 38 42 22 20 20 9 7 9 9 11 4 9 2 2 2 5 7 Baby boomers3
  27. 27. McKinsey & Company 27 A majority of consumers have traded down or switched to private labels, particularly in household products, snacks, and dairy 28 30 38 38 38 42 43 46 48 49 53 5 6 5 6 7 5 5 6 7 7 6 67 65 57 56 55 52 52 48 45 44 41 Dairy and eggs Household products Hot drinks Bread and bakery Snacks and confectionary Frozen foods Healthcare, beauty, baby Non-alcoholic beverages Alcohol Fresh meat, fish, poultry Fresh fruit and vegetables No change Switched to higher-priced brand Switched to lower-priced or private-label brand Brand-switching behavior1 % of respondents who switched to a different brand for groceries or essentials in last 4–6 weeks Net trade- down2 35 30 13 12 10 5 3 −3 −11 −12 −17 62% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you tried a different brand than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. Which of the following best describes how/where you switched brands? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers for "switched to higher-priced brand" and "no change“ from “switched to lower-priced or private-label brand.”
  28. 28. McKinsey & Company 28 Value for money and price drive more the decision to try new grocery brands for older generations 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy in the last 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products).What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons. 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here top source of concern. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Between −2 and +2 < −2 > +2 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 51 50 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 3 Wanted to try a new brand I found Wanted to try new type of product Better quality Better value for money Better price Natural/organic Available where I’m shopping Supporting local businesses Large package sizes Products are in stock More sustainable/environmentally friendly Wanted to treat myself Better shipping, delivery cost Wanted variety/a change from normal Shares my values Cleaner, safer Their response to invasion of Ukraine The company treats its employees well All consumers 45 38 21 14 13 16 6 9 15 7 9 12 9 4 5 3 9 6 Millennials 50 59 9 14 10 10 10 10 7 12 9 6 7 5 4 4 1 4 Gen X 49 46 21 15 11 15 3 16 11 8 8 7 7 10 2 3 5 3 Gen Z 59 54 11 14 18 10 23 12 9 9 4 7 2 7 4 0 2 1 Baby boomers3 Top reasons for choice of new brand for groceries/essentials1 % of respondents who bought a different brand than normal in last 4–6 weeks 62% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks
  29. 29. McKinsey & Company 29 Consumers have noticed food and skin-care price rises most of all; in most cases this leads to down-trading to a lower cost brand 80 80 65 60 59 57 57 56 54 51 50 48 36 Skin care and makeup Pet food and supplies Home decoration and furniture Kitchen and dining products Footwear Consumer electronics Apparel Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Home improvement, gardening supplies Accessories Fitness and wellness services Jewelry Perception of price increase and action taken by consumers by product category Perception of price increase1 % of respondents top 2 boxes 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.” 2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you done any of the following when purchasing [product]? Includes respondents who answered they switched to a different or lower-cost brand, delayed their purchase, switched to a different store or website, or purchased a smaller quantity. Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years 31 47 29 48 31 37 40 38 46 46 46 42 39 19 19 19 12 4 12 13 11 14 12 14 12 11 9 9 9 8 12 14 13 3 14 11 10 12 5 2 4 6 4 5 1 3 3 2 4 2 3 8 40 24 31 17 24 19 21 31 20 24 15 9 17 9 8 9 9 12 10 12 7 7 10 12 12 13 8 9 8 9 8 5 4 4 10 5 2 2 3 24 15 26 20 26 23 18 28 20 18 24 20 27 Action taken when price increase was perceived2 % of respondents reacting to perceived price increase No action Delayed a purchase Switched to a different brand Switched to a higher-cost brand Switched to a lower-cost brand Switched to a different store/website Purchased a larger size/quantity Purchased a smaller size/quantity
  30. 30. McKinsey & Company 30 Reasons for choosing a product/brand in the past 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents rating as top 2 or bottom 2 in importance 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product or brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.” 2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (rating of 1 or 2) value from the important (rating of 5 or 6) value. 45 44 36 48 35 69 27 61 30 36 55 40 63 “Rational” Beliefs Sustainability ‘Rational’ reasons for choosing a brand dominate, especially lower price, trusted brand, and availability 10 11 13 13 16 3 3 7 19 19 16 7 4 No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives Sustainably sourced materials Small or neutral carbon footprint Fair trade practices Lower price Available in the store closest to me Locally sourced/locally owned Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine Brand has stopped doing business in Russia Brand is actively supporting the humanitarian effort in Ukraine Brand that treats employees well Brand that I know and trust Unimportant (bottom 2 boxes) Important (top 2 boxes) Source: McKinsey & Company Spain Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,016, sampled to match Spain general population 18+ years Net importance2 35 33 22 22 12 66 57 40 17 23 48 60 11
  31. 31. McKinsey & Company 31 Reason for trying a new brand in the past 4–6 weeks1 Net importance rating2 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product or brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.” 2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (rating of 1 or 2) value from the important (rating of 5 or 6) value. “Rational” Beliefs Sustain- ability Spain’s consumers rank high in Europe 5 for being motivated by sustainability and are most apt to seek a clear position on Ukraine Europe 5 27 21 11 9 1 54 45 24 43 32 5 1 -8 Available in the store closest to me Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives Locally sourced/locally owned No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free Small or neutral carbon footprint Sustainably sourced materials Fair trade practices Lower price Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine Brand that I know and trust Brand that treats employees well Brand actively supports humanitarian effort in Ukraine Brand has stopped doing business in Russia France Spain UK Italy Germany 34 22 14 12 9 54 49 21 40 29 -5 -13 0 29 16 7 2 -7 40 36 27 33 26 -13 -16 -22 6 14 2 -2 -6 63 47 1 40 27 9 11 -10 32 21 8 12 -4 44 36 31 40 32 5 -2 -3 35 33 22 22 12 66 57 40 60 48 23 17 11 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years

Notes de l'éditeur

  • Custom Cut – Savanta / Chris

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