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McKinsey Survey: Chilean consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. McKinsey & Company 1 Uncertainty remains the dominant sentiment, with one out of three consumers being optimistic about economic recovery 12% 14% 14% 56% 58% 57% 32% 29% 28% Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Unsure: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007; 5/1–5/4/2020, n = 941; 4/7–4/13/2020, n = 1,005, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years Apr 7–13 Chile May 1–4 Sep 1–16
  2. McKinsey & Company 2 Chileans continue to be careful of their spending, but are more upbeat about their financial concerns compared to last survey in May Overall sentiment in the general population in Chile1 % of respondents 1 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. Please select only one response for each statement; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Measures difference in “strongly agree / agree” between current and last pulse survey. 42% 22% 21% 23% 18% 9% 27% 38% 32% 31% 34% 35% 37% 25% 32% 40% 46% 46% 48% 56% 58% 72%3% 5% Strongly disagree / disagree Strongly agree / agreeSomewhat disagree / agree Strongly agree/ agree difference since last survey2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007; 5/1–5/4/2020, n = 941, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years I have been personally affected by the coronavirus or COVID-19 I am very concerned about losing my job My ability to work has been reduced by coronavirus or COVID-19 My ability to make financial ends meet has been negatively impacted by coronavirus or COVID-19 My income has been negatively impacted by coronavirus or COVID-19 Uncertainty about the economy is preventing me from making purchases or investments that I would otherwise make Given the economy and my personal finances, I have to be very careful how I spend my money I am cutting back on my spending -6 -20 -16 -14 -10 -14 -10 -12
  3. McKinsey & Company 3 Household income1,2 % of respondents Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same Increase slightly / increase a lot 36% Past 2 weeks 3% Past 2 weeks 23% 74% 7% 57% 11% 53% 37% Next 2 weeks 1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How do you think your overall available income, spending, and savings may change in the next two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. While their personal finances have stabilized more since May, most Chileans are still experiencing reductions in income and savings Household spending1,2 % of respondents Past 2 weeks 39% 23% 38% 38% 29% 33% Past 2 weeks 29% 44% 27% Next 2 weeks May 1–4 September 1–16 May 1–4 September 1–16 Household savings1,2 % of respondents 16% 5% 79% 66% 12% Past 2 weeks 22% Past 2 weeks 12% 32% 56% Next 2 weeks May 1–4 September 1–16 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007; 5/1–5/4/2020, n = 941, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  4. McKinsey & Company 4 Except for groceries, purchase intent remains negative across all categories 9 34 32 40 36 48 58 81 51 61 54 30 14 10 41 65 16 11 5 16 11 8 7 8 8 13 10 9 8 6 Tobacco products Groceries Jewelry Restaurant Snacks Food takeout & delivery Alcohol Quick-service restaurant 2Footwear Apparel 3 Accessories Furnishings & appliances Non-food child products Household supplies Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents Decrease Stay the same Increase 16 47 62 74 32 54 44 27 55 48 47 33 67 71 70 68 10 10 11 6 9 8 5 13 9 4 11 10 3 8 7 Personal-care services Pet-care services Entertainment at home Books/magazines/newspapers Consumer electronics Gasoline Out-of-home entertainment Fitness & wellness Vehicle purchases Short-term home rentals Cruises Travel by car 0 Adventures & tours International flights Domestic flights Hotel/resort stays Net intent2 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. -6 -38 -50 -68 -22 -46 -38 -15 -46 -43 -36 -33 -57 -68 -62 -61 Net intent2 +6 -17 -4 -60 -23 -27 -24 -25 -40 -51 -79 -44 -58 -45 -1 -33 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  5. McKinsey & Company 5 The shift to online continues to accelerate in entertainment and in food takeout and delivery, and less so in household essentials 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, where do you expect you’ll buy these categories? Tell us if you will shop in the following places more, about the same, or less in the next two weeks; please note, if you don’t buy in one of these places today and won’t in next two weeks, please select “N/A.” 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease shopping frequency from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase shopping frequency. Expected change in shopping channel per category over the next two weeks1 Axes show net intent,2 bubble size relative to share of respondents that have purchased category in last six months -20 -10-15 20-30 -70 -35 -25 -10 -20 -5 -60 0 5 10 15 -50 10 25 -40 -30 0 Groceries Tobacco Accessories Food takeout & delivery Furnishings & appliances Snacks Books/ magazines/ newspapers Household supplies (e.g., cleaning, laundry) Non-food child products (e.g., diapers) Skin care & makeup Fitness & wellness Personal-care products (e.g., soap, shampoo) Apparel Entertainment at home (e.g., Netflix) Footwear Consumer electronics Jewelry Alcohol Discretionary Household essentials Entertainment at home In-store Online Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  6. McKinsey & Company 6 As employment picks up, consumers expect to spend more time on work and less time on leisure activities 19% 18% 19% 17% 14% 21% 37% 40% 30% 37% 48% 53% 54% 56% 58% 62% 59% 44% 43% 54% 47% 37% 28% 28% 24% 24% 24% 20% 19% 17% 16% 16% 15% Social media Movies or shows Working Online shopping for groceries Video content Texting, chatting, messaging Online shopping for non-food purchases Reading news online Live news Reading for personal interest Video games Decrease Stay the same IncreaseExpected change to time allocation over the next two weeks1 % of respondents 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, how much time do you expect to spend on these activities compared to how much time you normally spend on them? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease time spent from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase time spent. Net intent2 +9 +9 +8 +7 +5 -1 -13 -19 -21 -22 -26-25 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  7. McKinsey & Company 7 Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” More Chileans are adopting digital habits, especially online streaming, video chats, and videoconferencing 37% 35% 25% 21% 11% 11% 5% 14% 8% 9% 19% 21% 6% 5% 20% 21% 16% 8% 6% 9% 4% 3% 9% 6% 6% 5% Online fitness Meal-kit delivery Online streaming Video chat: personal Remote learning: my children or myself Wellness app Tiktok Playing online games Telemedicine: physical or mental Restaurant delivery Videoconferencing: professional Grocery delivery Watching e-sports Just started usingNot using Using less / the same Using more Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  8. McKinsey & Company 8 Chileans are most concerned about taking care of their families, safety, and health 83% 77% 75% 71% 70% 68% 67% 60% 57% 51% 50% 49% 49% 46% 32% My personal health Overall public health Taking care of my family Safety of me or my family Not knowing how long it will last Contributing to spread of virus Health of my vulnerable relatives The Chilean economy Impact on upcoming events Negative impact on my job or income Impact on upcoming travel plans Not being able to make ends meet My mental health Not being able to get the supplies I need Negative impact on my business 1 Q: What concerns you most about the COVID-19 situation? Possible answers: “not a concern”; “minimally concerned”; “somewhat concerned”; “very concerned”; “extremely concerned.” Largest concerns of the Chile’s population related to COVID-191 % of respondents who are very concerned or extremely concerned Very concerned / extremely concerned 83% of Chileans are very/extremely concerned about taking care of their families Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  9. McKinsey & Company 9 Most Chileans expect the personal and financial impact of COVID-19 to persist beyond another two months 4–6 months 35% 18% 5% 18% 24% More than one year 0–1 month 2–3 months 7–12 months 10% 14% 26% 27% 19% 2–3 months 5% No impact 0–1 month 4–6 months 7–12 months More than one year Adjustments to routines1 % of respondents Impact on personal / household finances2 % of respondents ~95% believe it will take 2+ months before routines can return to normal, the same as the last pulse survey ~85% believe their finances will be impacted for 2+ months by the COVID-19 situation, down from 94% in the last pulse survey 1 Q: How long do you believe you need to adjust your routines, given the current COVID-19 situation, before things return back to normal in Chile (e.g., government lifts restrictions on events/travel)? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How long do you believe your personal/household finances will be impacted by the COVID-19 situation? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Chile Consumer Pulse Survey 9/1–9/16/2020, n = 1,007; 5/1–5/4/2020, n = 941, sampled and weighted to match Chile’s general population 18+ years
  10. McKinsey & Company 10 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Removed the following: 1/ Meal kit: very low general adoption, trend mirrored those of restaurant & grocerys 2/ Fitness: Wellness App & Digital exercise machines – mirrored online personal training & fitness; in addition, had limited adoption 3/ Telemedicine – removed both physical health & mental health as total adoption low 4/ Watching online gaming – very similar to trend in "playing online gaming”
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