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McKinsey & Company 1
We have seen six fundamental shifts in consumer behavior,
some of which will have a lasting impact
4. Stickiness of
digital
2. Signs of
spend recovery
5. Rebalancing
of homebody
economy
6. Evolution of
loyalty
3. Vaccine-
fueled
acceleration
Up to 98%
have currently
purchased online
since COVID-19
~50%
of consumers
expect to spend
extra in 2021 to
reward themselves
84%
of consumers have
changed stores,
brands, or the way
they shop
64%
of consumers have
made changes in
their work or study
locations
+2 p.p.
acceleration in net
spend intent among
vaccinated people
versus those still
waiting and likely to
get the vaccine
~60%
of consumers are
optimistic about an
economic recovery
post-COVID-19
1. Steady overall
optimism
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 3/15–3/19/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
10 14 14 18 17
32
21
31
20
25
43
45 46
53 59
50
62
52 67
71
47 41 39
30 24 18 17 17 12
4
37
61
2
Mixed The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression/
fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
China is more optimistic than all other countries except India
1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)?
Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Steady overall optimism
US
Feb 18–
22
India
Feb 20–
Mar 3
China
Feb 20–
Mar 8
Mexico
Feb 20–
Mar 2
Brazil
Feb 20–
Mar 1
Germany
Feb 23–27
UK
Feb 23–
27
Spain
Feb 23–
27
Italy
Feb 23–
27
France
Feb 23–
27
Japan
Feb 24–
27
Change in Optimistic vs Nov
survey, percentage points
0 +9 +9 0 +6 +13 +1 +7 +4 +3 +5
McKinsey & Company 3
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n =
1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; 3/21–3/23/2020, n = 1,225; 2/21–2/24/2020, n = 1,249, including
Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
6 5 3 4 4 7 6 4
56 46 48
45 41
44
39
40 43
38
36 37
43
48 47
53 56
52
57
53 52
58 61 61
1 2
Feb 21–24 Mar 21–23 Mar 25–30 Apr 8–13
Apr 1–6 Apr 15–19 May 5–11 May 19–25 June 15–21
3
Dec 11–15
2
Feb 20–Mar 8
Sep 16–24
China
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19
will have lasting impact
on the economy and
show regression/fall into
lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy
will rebound within 2–3
months and grow just as
strong as or stronger than
before COVID-19
Steady overall optimism
Optimism regarding China’s economic recovery has increased and
reached the highest level since the start of the pandemic
2020 2021
McKinsey & Company 4
Household income
1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Household spending
Sep 16–24, 2020 Sep 16–24, 2020
Household savings
Sep 16–24, 2020
Steady overall optimism
Increase slightly / increase a lot
Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same
Past 2 weeks
69
9
29
22
8
69
23
Past 2 weeks
60
11
Past 2 weeks
11
Past 2 weeks
64
26
Past 2 weeks
12
64
24
9
62
29
Past 2 weeks
Despite the claimed decrease in income and savings, household
spending remains relatively steady
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123. including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to
match China’s general population 18+ years
19 23
16
Past 2 weeks
15
65
Past 2 weeks
19
66
18
59
Past 2 weeks
Dec 11–15,
2020
Feb 20–Mar 8,
2021
Dec 11–15,
2020
Feb 20–Mar 8,
2021
Dec 11–15,
2020
Feb 20–Mar 8,
2021
Change in given measure in past 2 weeks1
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 5
Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities1
% of respondents
Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities is relatively high
66
Mar 15
Overall
Vaccinated3
64
61
Interested
64
69
Cautious Unlikely
65
Gen Z
64
Millennials Baby boomers
Gen X
64 69
67
Low (<RMB
6,200)
High (>RMB
11,000)
Medium (RMB
6,200–10,999)
67
60
1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
3 Low sample size (n < 50).
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n= 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
~69%
of people interested in
vaccination are doing out-
of-home activities
~69%
of millennials are
doing out-of-home
activities
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
By income
~67%
of higher-income
households are
doing out-of-home
activities
Steady overall optimism
McKinsey & Company 6
Almost all Chinese consumers are already going back to work
outside their home and are eager to engage in social activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Attend an indoor cultural event
Go to a shopping mall
45
Dine at a restaurant or bar
31
Get together with friends
37
35
29
18
Get together with family
24
Go out for family entertainment
22
Attend an outdoor event
Shop in person for groceries/necessities
16
15
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Shop in person for nonnecessities
Top activities eager to get back to2
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices
97%
work outside the home
95%
shop in person for groceries,
necessities
Most prevalent activities
consumers are engaging in1
% of respondents who did activity
within last 2 weeks
1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities.
2 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most.
Steady overall optimism
McKinsey & Company 7
1 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most.
2 Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents.
Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices
Income overindexed or underindexed,2 percentage points
Low income
<RMB 6,200/month
Medium income
RMB 6,200–
10,999/month
High income
>RMB 11,000/month
−9 −3 1
−1 0 0
−10 3 0
0 6 −1
−9 −6 2
9 −3 0
−1 −2 1
−11 2 0
−2 −2 1
−5 −1 0
−3 0 0
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
45
31
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Get together with friends
35
37
Attend an indoor cultural event
Go to a shopping mall
29
Get together with family
24
Go out for family entertainment
22
Attend an outdoor event
15
18
Shop in person for groceries/necessities
16
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Shop in person for nonnecessities
11
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Steady overall optimism
Consumers are most eager to get together with friends and return to
indoor activities such as dining out, cultural events, going to a mall
Overindex (>5p.p.) Underindexed (<−5p.p.)
McKinsey & Company 8
Chinese will prioritize going to a shopping mall and outdoor family
entertainment once COVID-19 subsides
Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks?
2. Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began?
Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from first
adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same and then subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all.
<0 21–50
Net intent2 >50
0–20
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain
-ment
70
52
47
30
26
50
38
73
70
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Go to a hair or nail salon
Attend an outdoor event
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Attend an indoor cultural event
Go out for family entertainment
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Get together with friends
Get together with family
+66
+51
+54
+61
+71
+50
+64
+63
+58
97
95
83
65
35
25
22
95
83
21
18
Travel by airplane
Work outside my home
Travel by train
Shop for groceries/necessities
Shop for nonnecessities
Travel more than 2 hrs by car
Rent a short-term vacation property
Go to a shopping mall
Travel on public transportation
Use ride-sharing service
Stay in a hotel
+67
+54
+55
+76
+43
+43
+49
+58
+42
+44
+41
Steady overall optimism
McKinsey & Company 9
Consumers report positive net spend intent change since December,
especially on discretionary categories such as accessories and hotels
Net intent: >0
Net intent: −15 to 0
Net intent: <−15
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+
years
Expected spending per category over the next 2 weeks compared with usual1
% of respondents Net
intent2
Net
intent2
−22
+14
−12
+25
+18
+18
+11
+5
+35
+37
−3
−8
−6
+2
+9
−3
N/A3
N/A3
Change since
Dec 2020
Change since
Dec 2020
N/A3
−13
+0
+27
+19
+36
+17
−4
−1
−2
+2
+2
+21
+5
+27
+24
+38
+36
8
17
9
14
15
15
12
16
16
17
20
14
18
13
16
14
1
7
Home & furniture
11
Tobacco products
11
Groceries
Restaurant
4
11
Food takeout & delivery
Alcoholic beverages
4
Quick-service restaurant
12
5
Footwear
Kitchen & dining
5
6
Apparel
Jewelry
5
Accessories
12
Toys & baby
1
Household supplies
12
6
2
Personal-care products
5
Skin care & makeup
6
Sports & outdoors
10
Home improvement & garden
Decrease
Stay the same
Increase
4
1
7
12
−7
−4
−6
7
3
6
7
9
6
10
12
7
−5
−9
7
7
8
7
9
17
15
26
21
34
15
16
8
23
18
16
16
16
9
14
8
8
Entertainment at home
12
7
Fitness & wellness
3
7
12
Books/magazines/newspapers
Pet food & supplies
Travel by car
3
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Cruises
Consumer electronics
Vehicles
Out-of-home entertainment
Pet-care services
11
Personal-care services
Gasoline
3
6
Short-term home rentals
12
1
Adventures & tours
4
International flights
10
Hotel/resort stays
10
Domestic flights
−3
6
17
11
8
7
14
−3
2
−14
−3
−26
−13
−31
−5
−6
1
2
1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3 Data not available or insufficient sample (n < 50) in Nov 2020 survey.
Signs of spend recovery
McKinsey & Company 10
Ongoing recovery
Essential spending and discretionary spending have both increased
since March and are stabilizing
10
30
20
−20
−10
0
May
25
Sep
24
Mar
30
Apr
6
Apr
13
Apr
19
May
11
June
21
Dec
15
Mar
8
Expected spending per category over the next 2 weeks compared with usual1
Net intent2
1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n =
1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s
general population 18+ years
Skin care & makeup
Groceries
Household supplies
Consumer electronics
Fitness & wellness
Personal-care products
Apparel
McKinsey & Company 11
Nearly half of Chinese, especially younger generations and higher-
income households, intend to splurge or treat themselves in 2021
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
~48%
plan to splurge or treat
themselves
51
Vaccinated
50
Interested
36
Cautious Unlikely
47
Baby boomers
31
52
Gen Z Gen X
48
Millennials
54
High (>RMB
11,000/month)
Low (<RMB
6,200/month)
47
Medium (RMB
6,200–10,999
/month)
41
50
~51%
of fully or partially
vaccinated people
~54%
of millennials
~50%
of more wealthy
households
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge / treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China's general population 18+ years
Signs of spend recovery
By
generation2
By income
By
vaccination
adoption
McKinsey & Company 12
A spike in consumer spending on apparel, personal care, and travel
is expected but will happen mostly after restrictions are lifted
Leisure categories that people intend to
splurge on or treat themselves to in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
40
39
36
32
30
29
28
25
22
Fitness, sports, outdoors
Apparel, shoes, accessories
Travel, lodging, vacation
Beauty & personal care
Out-of-home entertainment
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Electronics
Household essentials
Items for your home
Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2
% of respondents who plan to splurge on or treat themselves to category
61
72
79
66
61
61
67
66
62
18
9
7
8
11
17
9
11
7
12
13
14
16
20
12
13
14
16
8
6
1
10
8
10
11
10
15
Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading
Anytime
I am vaccinated
Family is vaccinated
1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2 Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge / treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China's general population 18+ years
Signs of spend recovery
McKinsey & Company 13
Most Chinese are confident that their routines and finances have
already returned to normal
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Routines returning to normal1
Finances returning to normal2
84
76
72
70
12
15
15
20
4
6
10
6
1
3
3
4
94
88
85
83
5
8
12
14
1
4
3
3
Vaccinated
Interested
Cautious
Unlikely
1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Vaccine- fueled acceleration
By July–Dec 2021
By 2022 or later By June 2021
Already back to normal
Expected timing of return to normal, by vaccination status
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 14
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Consumers intend to shop online more often post-COVID-19 than
before the pandemic across all categories
1 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % of respondents who selected “yes” for the category and currently buying the category.
2 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the
same amount online”; “buy more online.”
3 Net intent is calculated among respondents currently buying online by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
4 Sample size < 50.
Consumers’ use of online channel during COVID-191 and intention
to use post-pandemic2
% of respondents buying this category
64
19
63
27
38
49
70
70
33
54
72
65
78
78
26
34
13
28
Home & furniture
Groceries
Food takeout & delivery
Tobacco products
Restaurant
Quick-service restaurant
Alcoholic beverages
Footwear
Apparel
Jewelry
Accessories
Toys & baby
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Skin care & makeup
Sports & outdoors
Home improvement & gardening
Kitchen & dining
73
53
78
61
64
76
36
33
18
34
14
77
2
96
87
97
87
87
Pet food & supplies
Fitness & wellness
Books/magazines/newspaperss
Entertainement at home
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Consumer electronics
Entertainment out of home
Pet-care services
Domestic flights
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Vehicles
Short-term house rentals
Travel by car
Cruises
Adventures & tours
International flights
Hotel/resort stays
Net intent3
post-COVID-19
+71
+74
+63
+55
+56
+63
+54
+67
+44
+54
+63
+57
N/A4
+70
+69
+79
+72
+83
During COVID-19
Net intent3
post-COVID-19
+58
+59
+56
+58
+62
+55
+62
+59
+65
+63
+60
+54
+60
+61
+58
N/A4
+60
+69
Stickiness of digital
>50
0–20
<0 20–50
Net intent3
McKinsey & Company 15
60
55
12 30
20
85
10 14
65
34
90
16
75
24
18 36
22 52
26 28
100
32 38 40
15
42 44 46 68 72
48 50
80
50
54
95
56 58
25
62
35
20
64 66 70 74
30
45
Toys & baby supplies
Hotel stays
Jewelry
Food takeout
Alcoholic beverages
Groceries
Quick-service restaurant
Consumer electronics
Personal-care products
Home decor & furniture
Sports/outdoors equipment
Pet food & supplies
Kitchen & dining
Restaurant
Vitamins, OTC medicines
Entertainment at home
Accessories
Footwear, apparel
Entertainment out of home
Pet-care services
Fitness
Personal-care services
Short-term house rentals
Adventures & tours
International flights
Domestic flights
Books, newspapers
Intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191
% of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the 1st- (20%) and 3rd-quartile (46%) values.
1 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
2 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category.
Personal-care services buying will step back from pandemic highs,
while travel activities will continue to be purchased online
Greater online presence Sustained shift to online
Some rebound
back to in-
person
Penetration since COVID-192
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n= 1,128, sampled and weighted to match the China general population 18+ years
Flight to digital and omnichannel
McKinsey & Company 16
Consumer behaviors and services used since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents
1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who are new or increased users and chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” or “will increase this.”
28
31
6
4
3
9
8
19
7
6
5
10
7
19
30%
8
4
5
7
8
8
7
6
6
6
13
3
4
4
4
3
Restaurant curbside pickup
Paying more for 2-hour delivery
Curbside pickup from a store
1
Using a new store/restaurant app
Restaurant delivery
Paying more for same-day delivery
2
Buying online for in-store pickup
Grocery delivery
2
Meal-kit delivery
In-store self-checkout
2
3
1
4
Purchasing pre-owned products
Purchasing directly from social media
2
Deal-finding plug-ins
Using same/less Using more Just started using
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Intent to continue2
% of users
67
47
58
85
58
65
55
57
55
57
64
66
63
Chinese continue trying new restaurant and grocery delivery
services and intensifying their usage
Stickiness of digital
McKinsey & Company 17
New COVID-
spurred behaviors
73 79 82
46 85
5
10
51
49 53
43 44 77
20
67
45
75
47 76
71
70
48 50 52
15
54 64
55 62
56 84
57 68
58 59 75
60 80
61 63 83
65 66 69 72 74 78 81
In-store self-checkout
Buying online for in-store pickup
Store curbside pickup
Using a new store/restaurant app
Meal-kit delivery
Paying more for same-day delivery
Restaurant delivery
Grocery delivery
Restaurant curbside pickup
Paying more for 2-hour delivery
Purchasing directly from social media
Deal-finding plug-ins
Purchasing pre-owned products
Intent to use after COVID-19,1 % of new or increased users
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 17%, and intent-to-use median = 58%.
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates % of respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2 Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included “Just started using since coronavirus started,” “Using more since coronavirus started,” “Using less since coronavirus started,” and “Using
about the same since coronavirus started.” Those who answered “Not using” are not included.
3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
Social purchasing and curbside pickup increased during the
pandemic; about half of consumers intend to continue post-COVID-19
Penetration since
COVID-192
% of respondents
Rooting of new digital habits
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
User Growth3: 0–9% User Growth: 10–19% User Growth: 20–29% User Growth: 30%+
Popular and enduring
McKinsey & Company 18
Chinese have acquired at-home alternatives to out-of-home
activities, such as remote learning and videoconferencing
35
6
53
7
6
2
6
6
3
5
55
17
11
9
14
9
28
13
27
11
5
3
7
8
3
6
25
8
25
6
19
8
6
9
7
5
19
2
3
5
1
1
5
3
5
3
4
5
Remote learning, myself
Videoconferencing, professional
Video chat, personal
Online streaming
Telemedicine, physical
Remote learning, my children
Social media
TikTok
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Online fitness
Wellness app
Telemedicine, mental
Digital exercise machine
Online games
Watching e-sports
Personal care/grooming at home
Using same/less
Just started using Using more
Intent to continue2
% of users
68
45
68
50
49
48
61
67
60
90
85
62
70
47
77
43
1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who are new or increased users and chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” or “will increase this.”
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Stickiness of digital
Usage of technology or performance of activity
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 19
Penetration
since
COVID-192
% of
respondents
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 25%, and intent-to-use median = 62%.
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who are new or increased users and chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” or “will increase this.”
2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since coronavirus started“; "Using more since coronavirus started“; “Using less since coronavirus started”; “Using about
the same since coronavirus started.” Respondents who selected "Not using“ are not included.
3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
52
32 44
34
35
85
92
36 46 72 80
68
38
25
40
20
42
90
50
48 50 90
54
5
56 58
45
60 62 64 66 70
70
74 78 82 88
84
65
86
0
10
15
30
40
55
60
75
80
Social media
Video chat, personal
Videoconferencing, professional Wellness app
Online streaming
Telemedicine, mental
Digital exercise machine
Remote learning, my children
TikTok
Telemedicine, physical
Online fitness
Playing online games
Watching e-sports
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Personal care / grooming at home
Remote learning, myself
Remote learning, especially for children, has been trending at an
unprecedented rate of 170% during the crisis
Rooting of new digital habits
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
User Growth3: 0–9% User Growth: 10–19% User Growth: 20–29% User Growth: 30–50%
Intent to use after COVID-19,1 % of new or increased users
Niche behaviors
but growing fast
with very loyal
consumers who
want to continue
using it post-
COVID-19
Niche and loyal
No real shift
since COVID-19
Universally popular
New COVID-
spurred behaviors
User Growth: 100%+
McKinsey & Company 20
Chinese consumers have made changes in work or study locations
as well as in investment portfolios
1 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Details next
Moved into a bigger home
Permanently moved to the suburbs
2
Worked more from home
Went back to school
Decided to change jobs
Permanently moved to a new city
Permanently moved to the countryside
Permanently moved in with family
16
Moved into a smaller home
Set up a gym at home
Set up a specific work from home space
2
Renovated/remodeled my home
22
Bought a car
Reassessed my investment portfolio
Sold a property
Bought a property
Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat)
57
7
9
1
1
1
10
9
6
2
4
15
Pet adoption 15
Work/study
change
64
House move 7
Home
renovation
28
Investments/
divestments
30
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191
% of respondents
Rebalancing of homebody economy
N/A
McKinsey & Company 21
91
85
77
74
70
69
69
65
63
62
61
52
51
49
44
41
49
70
Playing online games
Social media
TikTok
44
Telemedicine, mental health
Watching e-sports
Digital exercise machine
Online fitness
Online streaming
Wellness app
Telemedicine, physical health
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Remote learning, my children
Video chat, personal
62
69
91
Videoconferencing, professional
Personal care/grooming at home
77
85
74
65
69
63
61
52
41
51
Remote learning, myself
9
13
47
30
Only one in five consumers expect to work from home more after
COVID-19, despite broader shifts toward online daily activities
22%
expect to work from home
exclusively or more than
before COVID-19
Intent to continue or increase usage of
digital services2
% respondents who worked more from home
during the crisis
Expectations for work from home after COVID-19
compared with before COVID-191
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Work only from home
Work from home more
Work from home the same
Work outside home more
1
−1
1
8
20
20
1
−8
−9
42
−2
8
4
4
−3
−5
Difference vs those who
did not work more from
home,3 percentage points
1 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Asked of respondents who selected “Worked more from
home" in the Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Includes respondents who selected “Worked more from home.“ Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19)
crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Includes respondents who selected “I will keep doing what I am doing now“ or “I will increase this.“
3 Difference between respondents who selected “Worked more from home“ and those who didn’t.
Rebalancing of homebody economy
>9
5–9
<0
0–4
McKinsey & Company 22
What respondents have done since Covid-19 started and how often1
% of respondents
More than 80 percent of Chinese consumers have tried a new
shopping behavior they now do regularly
3
4
2
3
3
31
29
22
19
19
3
2
Private label / store brand
New shopping method3
Different brand
Different retailer/store/website 2
New digital shopping method
2
23
1
36
35
26
24
Intent to continue2
% of respondents
who tried behavior
73
78
81
77
75
84%
of consumers have
tried a new shopping
behavior they now do
regularly
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Just once Sometimes Regularly
87%
of millennials and Gen
Z have tried a new
shopping behavior
1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? Sixteen percent of consumers selected “none of these.” Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once
the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go
back to what I did before coronavirus.”
2 Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” or “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
Evolution of loyalty
McKinsey & Company 23
More than half of consumers cite convenience and value
as top drivers for trying new places to shop
1 Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three. Overarching reason based on
% of individual respondents selecting at least 1 reason in the group.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
Evolution of loyalty
Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top 3
x Net % of respondents per category
26
22
18
12
25
23
6
16
11
5
3
21
16
8
7
17
16
Better value
Less crowded / has shorter lines
Can get all the items I need from 1 place
Offers good delivery/pickup options
Better prices/promotions
More easily accessible from my home
Supporting local businesses
Better shipping/delivery cost
Shares my values
Treats its employees well
Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options
Products are in stock
Better quality
Offers natural/organic products
Wanted to treat myself
Wanted variety / a change from my normal routine
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
Quality/organic
Availability
Personal choice
Value 45
Convenience 60
Purpose driven 32
21
23
23
Health/hygiene 16
Of which
52%
are millennials,
vs sample of 40%
Of which
90%
have income >RMB
11,000/month, vs
sample of 77%
McKinsey & Company 24
Alongside value, novelty and purpose are top drivers for Chinese
consumers to try a new brand
1 Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason
based on % of individual respondents selecting at least 1 reason in the group.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
28%
27%
18%
10%
32%
26%
22%
15%
12%
3%
22%
18%
24%
16%
25%
23%
20%
Products are in stock
Larger package sizes
Better shipping/delivery cost
Better prices/promotions
Better value
Shares my values
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Supporting local businesses
Is natural/organic
The company treats its employees well
Is more sustainable / better for the environment
Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine
Wanted to treat myself
Better quality
Wanted variety / change from my normal routine
Is available where I’m shopping
Quality/organic
Health/hygiene
Purpose driven
Personal choice
Convenience
Availability
Novelty 46
Value 55
34
34
46
26
16
28
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top 3
Of which
44%
are millennials,
vs sample of 40%
Of which
80%
have income >RMB
11,000/month, vs
sample of 77%
Evolution of loyalty
x Net % of respondents per category
McKinsey & Company 25
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These
materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do
not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information
has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and
subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no
representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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McKinsey Survey: Chinese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  • 1. McKinsey & Company 1 We have seen six fundamental shifts in consumer behavior, some of which will have a lasting impact 4. Stickiness of digital 2. Signs of spend recovery 5. Rebalancing of homebody economy 6. Evolution of loyalty 3. Vaccine- fueled acceleration Up to 98% have currently purchased online since COVID-19 ~50% of consumers expect to spend extra in 2021 to reward themselves 84% of consumers have changed stores, brands, or the way they shop 64% of consumers have made changes in their work or study locations +2 p.p. acceleration in net spend intent among vaccinated people versus those still waiting and likely to get the vaccine ~60% of consumers are optimistic about an economic recovery post-COVID-19 1. Steady overall optimism Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 3/15–3/19/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey 10 14 14 18 17 32 21 31 20 25 43 45 46 53 59 50 62 52 67 71 47 41 39 30 24 18 17 17 12 4 37 61 2 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/ fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 China is more optimistic than all other countries except India 1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Steady overall optimism US Feb 18– 22 India Feb 20– Mar 3 China Feb 20– Mar 8 Mexico Feb 20– Mar 2 Brazil Feb 20– Mar 1 Germany Feb 23–27 UK Feb 23– 27 Spain Feb 23– 27 Italy Feb 23– 27 France Feb 23– 27 Japan Feb 24– 27 Change in Optimistic vs Nov survey, percentage points 0 +9 +9 0 +6 +13 +1 +7 +4 +3 +5
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n = 1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; 3/21–3/23/2020, n = 1,225; 2/21–2/24/2020, n = 1,249, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years 6 5 3 4 4 7 6 4 56 46 48 45 41 44 39 40 43 38 36 37 43 48 47 53 56 52 57 53 52 58 61 61 1 2 Feb 21–24 Mar 21–23 Mar 25–30 Apr 8–13 Apr 1–6 Apr 15–19 May 5–11 May 19–25 June 15–21 3 Dec 11–15 2 Feb 20–Mar 8 Sep 16–24 China Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Steady overall optimism Optimism regarding China’s economic recovery has increased and reached the highest level since the start of the pandemic 2020 2021
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Household income 1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Household spending Sep 16–24, 2020 Sep 16–24, 2020 Household savings Sep 16–24, 2020 Steady overall optimism Increase slightly / increase a lot Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same Past 2 weeks 69 9 29 22 8 69 23 Past 2 weeks 60 11 Past 2 weeks 11 Past 2 weeks 64 26 Past 2 weeks 12 64 24 9 62 29 Past 2 weeks Despite the claimed decrease in income and savings, household spending remains relatively steady Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123. including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years 19 23 16 Past 2 weeks 15 65 Past 2 weeks 19 66 18 59 Past 2 weeks Dec 11–15, 2020 Feb 20–Mar 8, 2021 Dec 11–15, 2020 Feb 20–Mar 8, 2021 Dec 11–15, 2020 Feb 20–Mar 8, 2021 Change in given measure in past 2 weeks1 % of respondents
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities1 % of respondents Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities is relatively high 66 Mar 15 Overall Vaccinated3 64 61 Interested 64 69 Cautious Unlikely 65 Gen Z 64 Millennials Baby boomers Gen X 64 69 67 Low (<RMB 6,200) High (>RMB 11,000) Medium (RMB 6,200–10,999) 67 60 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. 2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. 3 Low sample size (n < 50). Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n= 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years ~69% of people interested in vaccination are doing out- of-home activities ~69% of millennials are doing out-of-home activities By generation2 By vaccination adoption By income ~67% of higher-income households are doing out-of-home activities Steady overall optimism
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Almost all Chinese consumers are already going back to work outside their home and are eager to engage in social activities Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Attend an indoor cultural event Go to a shopping mall 45 Dine at a restaurant or bar 31 Get together with friends 37 35 29 18 Get together with family 24 Go out for family entertainment 22 Attend an outdoor event Shop in person for groceries/necessities 16 15 Visit a crowded outdoor public place Shop in person for nonnecessities Top activities eager to get back to2 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices 97% work outside the home 95% shop in person for groceries, necessities Most prevalent activities consumers are engaging in1 % of respondents who did activity within last 2 weeks 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities. 2 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. Steady overall optimism
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 1 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. 2 Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents. Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Income overindexed or underindexed,2 percentage points Low income <RMB 6,200/month Medium income RMB 6,200– 10,999/month High income >RMB 11,000/month −9 −3 1 −1 0 0 −10 3 0 0 6 −1 −9 −6 2 9 −3 0 −1 −2 1 −11 2 0 −2 −2 1 −5 −1 0 −3 0 0 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years 45 31 Dine at a restaurant or bar Get together with friends 35 37 Attend an indoor cultural event Go to a shopping mall 29 Get together with family 24 Go out for family entertainment 22 Attend an outdoor event 15 18 Shop in person for groceries/necessities 16 Visit a crowded outdoor public place Shop in person for nonnecessities 11 Go to the gym or fitness studio Steady overall optimism Consumers are most eager to get together with friends and return to indoor activities such as dining out, cultural events, going to a mall Overindex (>5p.p.) Underindexed (<−5p.p.)
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Chinese will prioritize going to a shopping mall and outdoor family entertainment once COVID-19 subsides Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years 1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? 2. Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from first adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same and then subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all. <0 21–50 Net intent2 >50 0–20 Net intent post- COVID-192 Net intent post- COVID-192 Work Shopping Transport/ travel Social Personal care Entertain -ment 70 52 47 30 26 50 38 73 70 Go to the gym or fitness studio Go to a hair or nail salon Attend an outdoor event Dine at a restaurant or bar Attend an indoor cultural event Go out for family entertainment Visit a crowded outdoor public place Get together with friends Get together with family +66 +51 +54 +61 +71 +50 +64 +63 +58 97 95 83 65 35 25 22 95 83 21 18 Travel by airplane Work outside my home Travel by train Shop for groceries/necessities Shop for nonnecessities Travel more than 2 hrs by car Rent a short-term vacation property Go to a shopping mall Travel on public transportation Use ride-sharing service Stay in a hotel +67 +54 +55 +76 +43 +43 +49 +58 +42 +44 +41 Steady overall optimism
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Consumers report positive net spend intent change since December, especially on discretionary categories such as accessories and hotels Net intent: >0 Net intent: −15 to 0 Net intent: <−15 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Expected spending per category over the next 2 weeks compared with usual1 % of respondents Net intent2 Net intent2 −22 +14 −12 +25 +18 +18 +11 +5 +35 +37 −3 −8 −6 +2 +9 −3 N/A3 N/A3 Change since Dec 2020 Change since Dec 2020 N/A3 −13 +0 +27 +19 +36 +17 −4 −1 −2 +2 +2 +21 +5 +27 +24 +38 +36 8 17 9 14 15 15 12 16 16 17 20 14 18 13 16 14 1 7 Home & furniture 11 Tobacco products 11 Groceries Restaurant 4 11 Food takeout & delivery Alcoholic beverages 4 Quick-service restaurant 12 5 Footwear Kitchen & dining 5 6 Apparel Jewelry 5 Accessories 12 Toys & baby 1 Household supplies 12 6 2 Personal-care products 5 Skin care & makeup 6 Sports & outdoors 10 Home improvement & garden Decrease Stay the same Increase 4 1 7 12 −7 −4 −6 7 3 6 7 9 6 10 12 7 −5 −9 7 7 8 7 9 17 15 26 21 34 15 16 8 23 18 16 16 16 9 14 8 8 Entertainment at home 12 7 Fitness & wellness 3 7 12 Books/magazines/newspapers Pet food & supplies Travel by car 3 Vitamins & OTC medicine Cruises Consumer electronics Vehicles Out-of-home entertainment Pet-care services 11 Personal-care services Gasoline 3 6 Short-term home rentals 12 1 Adventures & tours 4 International flights 10 Hotel/resort stays 10 Domestic flights −3 6 17 11 8 7 14 −3 2 −14 −3 −26 −13 −31 −5 −6 1 2 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3 Data not available or insufficient sample (n < 50) in Nov 2020 survey. Signs of spend recovery
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Ongoing recovery Essential spending and discretionary spending have both increased since March and are stabilizing 10 30 20 −20 −10 0 May 25 Sep 24 Mar 30 Apr 6 Apr 13 Apr 19 May 11 June 21 Dec 15 Mar 8 Expected spending per category over the next 2 weeks compared with usual1 Net intent2 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n = 1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Skin care & makeup Groceries Household supplies Consumer electronics Fitness & wellness Personal-care products Apparel
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Nearly half of Chinese, especially younger generations and higher- income households, intend to splurge or treat themselves in 2021 Expected leisure spend in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves ~48% plan to splurge or treat themselves 51 Vaccinated 50 Interested 36 Cautious Unlikely 47 Baby boomers 31 52 Gen Z Gen X 48 Millennials 54 High (>RMB 11,000/month) Low (<RMB 6,200/month) 47 Medium (RMB 6,200–10,999 /month) 41 50 ~51% of fully or partially vaccinated people ~54% of millennials ~50% of more wealthy households 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge / treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China's general population 18+ years Signs of spend recovery By generation2 By income By vaccination adoption
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 A spike in consumer spending on apparel, personal care, and travel is expected but will happen mostly after restrictions are lifted Leisure categories that people intend to splurge on or treat themselves to in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves 40 39 36 32 30 29 28 25 22 Fitness, sports, outdoors Apparel, shoes, accessories Travel, lodging, vacation Beauty & personal care Out-of-home entertainment Restaurants, dining out, bars Electronics Household essentials Items for your home Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2 % of respondents who plan to splurge on or treat themselves to category 61 72 79 66 61 61 67 66 62 18 9 7 8 11 17 9 11 7 12 13 14 16 20 12 13 14 16 8 6 1 10 8 10 11 10 15 Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading Anytime I am vaccinated Family is vaccinated 1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. 2 Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge / treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China's general population 18+ years Signs of spend recovery
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Most Chinese are confident that their routines and finances have already returned to normal Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Routines returning to normal1 Finances returning to normal2 84 76 72 70 12 15 15 20 4 6 10 6 1 3 3 4 94 88 85 83 5 8 12 14 1 4 3 3 Vaccinated Interested Cautious Unlikely 1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Vaccine- fueled acceleration By July–Dec 2021 By 2022 or later By June 2021 Already back to normal Expected timing of return to normal, by vaccination status % of respondents
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Consumers intend to shop online more often post-COVID-19 than before the pandemic across all categories 1 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % of respondents who selected “yes” for the category and currently buying the category. 2 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; “buy more online.” 3 Net intent is calculated among respondents currently buying online by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 4 Sample size < 50. Consumers’ use of online channel during COVID-191 and intention to use post-pandemic2 % of respondents buying this category 64 19 63 27 38 49 70 70 33 54 72 65 78 78 26 34 13 28 Home & furniture Groceries Food takeout & delivery Tobacco products Restaurant Quick-service restaurant Alcoholic beverages Footwear Apparel Jewelry Accessories Toys & baby Household supplies Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Sports & outdoors Home improvement & gardening Kitchen & dining 73 53 78 61 64 76 36 33 18 34 14 77 2 96 87 97 87 87 Pet food & supplies Fitness & wellness Books/magazines/newspaperss Entertainement at home Vitamins & OTC medicine Consumer electronics Entertainment out of home Pet-care services Domestic flights Personal-care services Gasoline Vehicles Short-term house rentals Travel by car Cruises Adventures & tours International flights Hotel/resort stays Net intent3 post-COVID-19 +71 +74 +63 +55 +56 +63 +54 +67 +44 +54 +63 +57 N/A4 +70 +69 +79 +72 +83 During COVID-19 Net intent3 post-COVID-19 +58 +59 +56 +58 +62 +55 +62 +59 +65 +63 +60 +54 +60 +61 +58 N/A4 +60 +69 Stickiness of digital >50 0–20 <0 20–50 Net intent3
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 60 55 12 30 20 85 10 14 65 34 90 16 75 24 18 36 22 52 26 28 100 32 38 40 15 42 44 46 68 72 48 50 80 50 54 95 56 58 25 62 35 20 64 66 70 74 30 45 Toys & baby supplies Hotel stays Jewelry Food takeout Alcoholic beverages Groceries Quick-service restaurant Consumer electronics Personal-care products Home decor & furniture Sports/outdoors equipment Pet food & supplies Kitchen & dining Restaurant Vitamins, OTC medicines Entertainment at home Accessories Footwear, apparel Entertainment out of home Pet-care services Fitness Personal-care services Short-term house rentals Adventures & tours International flights Domestic flights Books, newspapers Intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191 % of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the 1st- (20%) and 3rd-quartile (46%) values. 1 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 2 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category. Personal-care services buying will step back from pandemic highs, while travel activities will continue to be purchased online Greater online presence Sustained shift to online Some rebound back to in- person Penetration since COVID-192 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n= 1,128, sampled and weighted to match the China general population 18+ years Flight to digital and omnichannel
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Consumer behaviors and services used since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who are new or increased users and chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” or “will increase this.” 28 31 6 4 3 9 8 19 7 6 5 10 7 19 30% 8 4 5 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 13 3 4 4 4 3 Restaurant curbside pickup Paying more for 2-hour delivery Curbside pickup from a store 1 Using a new store/restaurant app Restaurant delivery Paying more for same-day delivery 2 Buying online for in-store pickup Grocery delivery 2 Meal-kit delivery In-store self-checkout 2 3 1 4 Purchasing pre-owned products Purchasing directly from social media 2 Deal-finding plug-ins Using same/less Using more Just started using Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Intent to continue2 % of users 67 47 58 85 58 65 55 57 55 57 64 66 63 Chinese continue trying new restaurant and grocery delivery services and intensifying their usage Stickiness of digital
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 New COVID- spurred behaviors 73 79 82 46 85 5 10 51 49 53 43 44 77 20 67 45 75 47 76 71 70 48 50 52 15 54 64 55 62 56 84 57 68 58 59 75 60 80 61 63 83 65 66 69 72 74 78 81 In-store self-checkout Buying online for in-store pickup Store curbside pickup Using a new store/restaurant app Meal-kit delivery Paying more for same-day delivery Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Restaurant curbside pickup Paying more for 2-hour delivery Purchasing directly from social media Deal-finding plug-ins Purchasing pre-owned products Intent to use after COVID-19,1 % of new or increased users Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 17%, and intent-to-use median = 58%. 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates % of respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included “Just started using since coronavirus started,” “Using more since coronavirus started,” “Using less since coronavirus started,” and “Using about the same since coronavirus started.” Those who answered “Not using” are not included. 3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Social purchasing and curbside pickup increased during the pandemic; about half of consumers intend to continue post-COVID-19 Penetration since COVID-192 % of respondents Rooting of new digital habits Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years User Growth3: 0–9% User Growth: 10–19% User Growth: 20–29% User Growth: 30%+ Popular and enduring
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Chinese have acquired at-home alternatives to out-of-home activities, such as remote learning and videoconferencing 35 6 53 7 6 2 6 6 3 5 55 17 11 9 14 9 28 13 27 11 5 3 7 8 3 6 25 8 25 6 19 8 6 9 7 5 19 2 3 5 1 1 5 3 5 3 4 5 Remote learning, myself Videoconferencing, professional Video chat, personal Online streaming Telemedicine, physical Remote learning, my children Social media TikTok Cooked regularly for myself/my family Online fitness Wellness app Telemedicine, mental Digital exercise machine Online games Watching e-sports Personal care/grooming at home Using same/less Just started using Using more Intent to continue2 % of users 68 45 68 50 49 48 61 67 60 90 85 62 70 47 77 43 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who are new or increased users and chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” or “will increase this.” Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Stickiness of digital Usage of technology or performance of activity % of respondents
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Penetration since COVID-192 % of respondents Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 25%, and intent-to-use median = 62%. 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who are new or increased users and chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” or “will increase this.” 2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since coronavirus started“; "Using more since coronavirus started“; “Using less since coronavirus started”; “Using about the same since coronavirus started.” Respondents who selected "Not using“ are not included. 3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). 52 32 44 34 35 85 92 36 46 72 80 68 38 25 40 20 42 90 50 48 50 90 54 5 56 58 45 60 62 64 66 70 70 74 78 82 88 84 65 86 0 10 15 30 40 55 60 75 80 Social media Video chat, personal Videoconferencing, professional Wellness app Online streaming Telemedicine, mental Digital exercise machine Remote learning, my children TikTok Telemedicine, physical Online fitness Playing online games Watching e-sports Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care / grooming at home Remote learning, myself Remote learning, especially for children, has been trending at an unprecedented rate of 170% during the crisis Rooting of new digital habits Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years User Growth3: 0–9% User Growth: 10–19% User Growth: 20–29% User Growth: 30–50% Intent to use after COVID-19,1 % of new or increased users Niche behaviors but growing fast with very loyal consumers who want to continue using it post- COVID-19 Niche and loyal No real shift since COVID-19 Universally popular New COVID- spurred behaviors User Growth: 100%+
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Chinese consumers have made changes in work or study locations as well as in investment portfolios 1 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Details next Moved into a bigger home Permanently moved to the suburbs 2 Worked more from home Went back to school Decided to change jobs Permanently moved to a new city Permanently moved to the countryside Permanently moved in with family 16 Moved into a smaller home Set up a gym at home Set up a specific work from home space 2 Renovated/remodeled my home 22 Bought a car Reassessed my investment portfolio Sold a property Bought a property Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat) 57 7 9 1 1 1 10 9 6 2 4 15 Pet adoption 15 Work/study change 64 House move 7 Home renovation 28 Investments/ divestments 30 Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191 % of respondents Rebalancing of homebody economy N/A
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 91 85 77 74 70 69 69 65 63 62 61 52 51 49 44 41 49 70 Playing online games Social media TikTok 44 Telemedicine, mental health Watching e-sports Digital exercise machine Online fitness Online streaming Wellness app Telemedicine, physical health Cooked regularly for myself/my family Remote learning, my children Video chat, personal 62 69 91 Videoconferencing, professional Personal care/grooming at home 77 85 74 65 69 63 61 52 41 51 Remote learning, myself 9 13 47 30 Only one in five consumers expect to work from home more after COVID-19, despite broader shifts toward online daily activities 22% expect to work from home exclusively or more than before COVID-19 Intent to continue or increase usage of digital services2 % respondents who worked more from home during the crisis Expectations for work from home after COVID-19 compared with before COVID-191 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Work only from home Work from home more Work from home the same Work outside home more 1 −1 1 8 20 20 1 −8 −9 42 −2 8 4 4 −3 −5 Difference vs those who did not work more from home,3 percentage points 1 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Asked of respondents who selected “Worked more from home" in the Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 2 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Includes respondents who selected “Worked more from home.“ Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Includes respondents who selected “I will keep doing what I am doing now“ or “I will increase this.“ 3 Difference between respondents who selected “Worked more from home“ and those who didn’t. Rebalancing of homebody economy >9 5–9 <0 0–4
  • 22. McKinsey & Company 22 What respondents have done since Covid-19 started and how often1 % of respondents More than 80 percent of Chinese consumers have tried a new shopping behavior they now do regularly 3 4 2 3 3 31 29 22 19 19 3 2 Private label / store brand New shopping method3 Different brand Different retailer/store/website 2 New digital shopping method 2 23 1 36 35 26 24 Intent to continue2 % of respondents who tried behavior 73 78 81 77 75 84% of consumers have tried a new shopping behavior they now do regularly Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Just once Sometimes Regularly 87% of millennials and Gen Z have tried a new shopping behavior 1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? Sixteen percent of consumers selected “none of these.” Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 2 Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” or “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. Evolution of loyalty
  • 23. McKinsey & Company 23 More than half of consumers cite convenience and value as top drivers for trying new places to shop 1 Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents selecting at least 1 reason in the group. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years Evolution of loyalty Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top 3 x Net % of respondents per category 26 22 18 12 25 23 6 16 11 5 3 21 16 8 7 17 16 Better value Less crowded / has shorter lines Can get all the items I need from 1 place Offers good delivery/pickup options Better prices/promotions More easily accessible from my home Supporting local businesses Better shipping/delivery cost Shares my values Treats its employees well Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options Products are in stock Better quality Offers natural/organic products Wanted to treat myself Wanted variety / a change from my normal routine Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Quality/organic Availability Personal choice Value 45 Convenience 60 Purpose driven 32 21 23 23 Health/hygiene 16 Of which 52% are millennials, vs sample of 40% Of which 90% have income >RMB 11,000/month, vs sample of 77%
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Alongside value, novelty and purpose are top drivers for Chinese consumers to try a new brand 1 Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents selecting at least 1 reason in the group. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18+ years 28% 27% 18% 10% 32% 26% 22% 15% 12% 3% 22% 18% 24% 16% 25% 23% 20% Products are in stock Larger package sizes Better shipping/delivery cost Better prices/promotions Better value Shares my values Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before Wanted to try a new brand I found Supporting local businesses Is natural/organic The company treats its employees well Is more sustainable / better for the environment Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine Wanted to treat myself Better quality Wanted variety / change from my normal routine Is available where I’m shopping Quality/organic Health/hygiene Purpose driven Personal choice Convenience Availability Novelty 46 Value 55 34 34 46 26 16 28 Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top 3 Of which 44% are millennials, vs sample of 40% Of which 80% have income >RMB 11,000/month, vs sample of 77% Evolution of loyalty x Net % of respondents per category
  • 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.