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McKinsey survey: European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping UK consumer behavior

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McKinsey survey: European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping UK consumer behavior

Pessimism about recovery is at an all-time high in the United Kingdom. Rising prices are the top concern, with consumers significantly trading down in stores and products. UK consumers are feeling great economic uncertainty. With energy and transport costs eating away at consumer savings and non-food spend, the top reasons given by survey participants for economic anxiety are the gas supply, supply-chain shortages, and energy issues. Consumers report the highest perceived price increases in groceries and household supplies, with two-thirds becoming more conscious about energy usage. Half of consumers changed their grocery brands in the last four to six weeks, with trading down a clear trend: price and value were the strongest drivers here.

Pessimism about recovery is at an all-time high in the United Kingdom. Rising prices are the top concern, with consumers significantly trading down in stores and products. UK consumers are feeling great economic uncertainty. With energy and transport costs eating away at consumer savings and non-food spend, the top reasons given by survey participants for economic anxiety are the gas supply, supply-chain shortages, and energy issues. Consumers report the highest perceived price increases in groceries and household supplies, with two-thirds becoming more conscious about energy usage. Half of consumers changed their grocery brands in the last four to six weeks, with trading down a clear trend: price and value were the strongest drivers here.

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McKinsey survey: European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping UK consumer behavior

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion of Ukraine are also rapidly evolving and inherently uncertain. As a result, this document, and data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues. The document should be treated as confidential and should not be shared without written approval from McKinsey & Company.
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Four emerging consumer themes in April 2022 The top concern in the UK is rising prices, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (15%) and COVID-19 (7%). Only 2% identify Brexit as their top concern, but 15% say Brexit is a top three concern Confidence in the current state of the economy is very negative, with 61% of UK consumers, including even larger shares of millennials and Gen X, adopting a negative view Pessimism about a recovery has risen to 35%, the highest level since we first asked in 2020 Costs of energy/utilities and transport are eating away at consumer savings and nonfood spend Two-thirds of consumers say they responded to price increases by adapted their shopping behavior Consumers significantly trade down in stores and products; they switch from grocery/convenience stores to discounters (28%) and from branded to low-priced and private-label products (34%) Nine out of ten consumers noticed price changes in the last few weeks, particularly in groceries and household essentials In response to price increases, consumers are cutting spend on all but food and gasoline and reducing energy use; 61% say they also are much more conscious of their home energy use 1 3 4 2 Current events and sources of concern Confidence in economy and household finances Price increases reining in purchase intent Emerging demand shifts
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Despite the pandemic’s continuing grip on societies in Europe, rising prices and invasion of Ukraine have now by far overtaken COVID-19 as top concerns for consumers Germany UK Italy France2 Spain 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Bars may not sum to 100%, due to rounding. 2. For France, political insecurity (9%) and immigration (8%) are concerns mentioned by more than 5% of consumers. Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 12 5 7 8 24 44 Europe 5 9 21 11 9 8 7 8 6 11 14 8 6 7 11 7 34 18 15 32 21 40 44 60 32 47 2 4 3 4 3 Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Unemployment/job security Extreme weather events Other Top source of concern1 % of respondents
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 The dominant concern of UK consumers is price increases, followed by the invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19 86 57 41 22 22 22 18 16 15 1 Cost/accessibility of healthcare Invasion of Ukraine Rising prices COVID-19 pandemic Extreme weather events/climate change Unemployment/job security Immigration Brexit Political uncertainty Other 60 15 7 3 3 4 3 2 2 1 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Among top 3 sources of concern1 Top source of concern2 Top sources of concern today % of respondents 1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3. 2. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today?
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Prices are particularly worrying for millennials and Ukraine Invasion for baby boomers 11 3 4 7 15 60 Overall 11 11 11 5 4 2 4 3 4 5 7 7 13 18 13 62 57 62 Low income High income Middle income 8 10 7 16 8 4 2 3 5 5 4 2 8 3 8 7 11 9 14 23 59 69 65 50 Gen X Millennials Gen Z Baby boomers Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Unemployment/job security Extreme weather events Other2 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Top source of concern1 % of respondents Split by generation Split by income 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? 2. Other includes “immigration,” “cost and accessibility of healthcare,” “Brexit,” and “Political uncertainty.”
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 For top three concerns, rising prices disproportionately concern low-income consumers and baby boomers; baby boomers also have the highest concerns about Ukraine Invasion 86 57 41 22 22 22 18 16 15 1 Unemployment/job security Rising prices Immigration Invasion of Ukraine Other COVID-19 pandemic Cost/accessibility of healthcare Extreme weather events/climate change Brexit Political uncertainty 90 52 42 22 25 24 20 12 13 1 85 60 42 19 19 22 18 19 15 2 82 59 39 28 22 18 13 19 20 0 82 48 28 29 33 37 8 16 20 0 86 51 37 26 25 31 12 19 14 0 86 58 47 16 18 25 18 16 14 2 88 63 44 22 19 7 25 15 16 1 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Top 3 sources of concern1 % of respondents Middle income High income Low income Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomer Split by generation Split by income 1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3.
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Four emerging consumer themes in April 2022 The top concern in the UK is rising prices, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (15%) and COVID-19 (7%). Only 2% identify Brexit as their top concern, but 15% say Brexit is a top three concern Confidence in the current state of the economy is very negative, with 61% of UK consumers, including even larger shares of millennials and Gen X, adopting a negative view Pessimism about a recovery has risen to 35%, the highest level since we first asked in 2020 Costs of energy/utilities and transport are eating away at consumer savings and nonfood spend Two-thirds of consumers say they responded to price increases by adapted their shopping behavior Consumers significantly trade down in stores and products; they switch from grocery/convenience stores to discounters (28%) and from branded to low-priced and private-label products (34%) Nine out of ten consumers noticed price changes in the last few weeks, particularly in groceries and household essentials In response to price increases, consumers are cutting spend on all but food and gasoline and reducing energy use; 61% say they also are much more conscious of their home energy use 1 3 4 2 Current events and sources of concern Confidence in economy and household finances Price increases reining in purchase intent Emerging demand shifts
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Almost two out of three consumers are negative about their own country’s current state of the economy 55 58 61 63 67 32 29 24 26 22 13 13 15 11 11 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 61 27 13 Positive Neutral Negative Net confidence2 −42 −56 −52 −45 −46 −48 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative" answers from all "positive" answers. Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents Germany UK Italy France Spain Europe 5
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Consumers’ negative perception of the economy is fairly consistent across income groups and highest among Gen X and millennials 61 24 15 Negative Overall Positive Neutral Confidence in UK’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents 63 57 65 26 26 18 17 16 11 Low (<£25K) Middle (£25K–50K) High (>£50K) 49 62 71 58 31 24 17 28 20 15 14 Baby boomers2 Gen Z Millennials 12 Gen X By income By generation Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: How are you feeling about the UK's economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Consumers whose top concern is rising prices are more likely than others to have a negative view of the UK economy 69 54 52 20 28 28 11 18 20 Invasion of Ukraine Rising prices COVID-19 pandemic Confidence in UK’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 61 24 15 Neutral Overall Positive Negative Net confidence2 −32 −36 −58 −46 1. Q: How are you feeling about UK's economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative/very negative" answers from all "positive/very positive" answers.
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 For consumers with a negative outlook on the current economy, the greatest uncertainties are supply related UK France Italy Germany Spain Top 3 reasons for negative view on economy1 % of respondents who perceived the current status of economy and/or the economy's outlook as negative Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 47 42 39 31 27 26 24 16 12 9 3 0 Rising interest rates Food shortages Interruption of petrol supply Supply chain shortages Unemployment rates/job security Risk of further escalation of the war Energy shortages Impact of influx of refugees Risk of nuclear disaster Uncertainty on the stock market Restrictions on international travel Other 53 40 43 30 19 31 33 12 11 7 3 0 41 50 53 33 19 22 14 23 14 8 2 1 45 44 36 29 22 33 20 17 12 10 3 1 49 32 41 29 37 20 23 15 13 11 3 0 46 44 24 34 39 24 28 11 12 10 2 0 Europe 5 1. Q: You mentioned that you are feeling negatively about [COUNTRY]’s economy in light of the Ukraine invasion. Which of the following topics are you most uncertain about? Please select up to 3.
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 UK consumers’ pessimism about the economy is at its highest since March 2020 30 30 32 30 31 31 24 17 25 35 52 55 53 55 54 53 55 49 51 49 18 15 15 15 14 16 21 34 24 16 Mar 2020 Apr 20223 Mar 2022 Sept 2020 May 2020 Oct 2021 Apr 2020 Nov 2020 June 2020 Feb 2021 Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before the current crisis Neutral: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: The current crisis will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy regression 20202 2021 2022 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," "Neutral", and "Pessimistic.“ Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020. 3. Question in Apr 2022 was not framed for coronavirus: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after crisis1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 03/22–03/29/2022, n = 5,028 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 5,081 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 5,232; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 5,338 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 5,645; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 5,641; 4/30–5/03/2020, n = 5,631; 4/16– 4/19/2020, n = 5,623; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 5,645, 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 5,614; 3/20–3/23/2020, n = 5,035 (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, UK, Portugal), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 33 35 35 38 42 52 51 49 50 44 14 14 16 12 14 Pessimism about economic recovery is high across countries and more than doubled since October 2021 18 −17 25 −23 24 −19 19 −23 13 −19 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis1 % of respondents Germany Apr 12–18, 2022 Change in % pessimistic vs Oct 2021 survey, percentage points Change in % optimistic vs Oct 2021 survey, percentage points Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before the current crisis Neutral: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: The current crisis will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession Italy Apr 12–18 UK Apr 12–18 France Apr 12–18 Spain Apr 12–18, 2022
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 The most categories of consumers pessimistic about a recovery are those in the low-income group and Gen X 35 49 16 Overall Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic Confidence in UK’s expected economic recovery after current crisis1 % of respondents 39 33 33 48 50 48 13 17 19 Low (<£25K) Middle (£25K–50K) High (>£50K) 22 35 43 34 53 49 45 51 25 16 13 15 Gen X Gen Z Millennials Baby boomers3 By income2 By generation Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; Top, middle and bottom two boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic", "Neutral", and "Pessimistic“; Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Four emerging consumer themes in April 2022 The top concern in the UK is rising prices, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (15%) and COVID-19 (7%). Only 2% identify Brexit as their top concern, but 15% say Brexit is a top three concern Confidence in the current state of the economy is very negative, with 61% of UK consumers, including even larger shares of millennials and Gen X, adopting a negative view Pessimism about a recovery has risen to 35%, the highest level since we first asked in 2020 Costs of energy/utilities and transport are eating away at consumer savings and nonfood spend Two-thirds of consumers say they responded to price increases by adapted their shopping behavior Consumers significantly trade down in stores and products; they switch from grocery/convenience stores to discounters (28%) and from branded to low-priced and private-label products (34%) Nine out of ten consumers noticed price changes in the last few weeks, particularly in groceries and household essentials In response to price increases, consumers are cutting spend on all but food and gasoline and reducing energy use; 61% say they also are much more conscious of their home energy use 1 3 4 2 Current events and sources of concern Confidence in economy and household finances Price increases reining in purchase intent Emerging demand shifts
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Across the five countries surveyed, the vast majority of respondents observed price changes 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general change in the prices of any goods you commonly buy? Inflation, year-over-year, Mar 2022, % 7.6 5.1 7.0 6.8 9.8 7 93 11 89 12 88 10 90 6 94 Source: OECD (inflation data); McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) sampled to match European general population 18+ years 9 91 Yes No Germany UK Italy France Spain Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Europe 5
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Consumers report the highest perceived price increases in groceries, followed by household supplies and pet food 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 5 19 22 25 24 27 30 22 27 23 36 29 25 28 30 35 49 55 47 50 38 39 36 35 33 36 30 26 32 28 25 21 43 19 21 15 15 14 14 14 12 9 15 15 10 12 12 12 1 5 7 8 21 17 18 25 26 29 13 28 30 30 30 30 Home decoration and furniture Accessories 2 2 2 Footwear Groceries/food for home 2 Household supplies Skin care and makeup Pet food and supplies 2 Personal-care products 1 Home improvement and gardening supplies Jewelry 2 2 Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine Kitchen and dining products Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Apparel Fitness and wellness services Consumer electronics 2 Decreased Not sure Stayed the same Increased significantly Increased Price changes perceived, last 4–6 weeks General price change perceived1 % of respondents Price change perceived by category2 % of respondents who shopped category 12 88 Yes No Net change3 90 73 67 63 51 49 48 46 43 42 41 40 39 38 34 29 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general increase in the prices of any goods you commonly buy? 2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.“ 3. Calculated by subtracting all "decreased" answers from all "increased/significantly increased" answers.
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Consumers’ outlook on future prices is negative, with Gen X and millennials seeing most impact on lifestyle 71 65 50 43 15 I am planning to buy fewer products/ services in the future if prices continue to rise I believe prices will continue to rise throughout the next 12 months I am concerned that the prices of everyday purchases have been increasing I have had to scale back my lifestyle due to an increase in prices I intend to use more “buy now, pay later” services in the coming months Agreement with price-related statements % of respondents rating agreement 5 or 6 on 6-point scale Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points 75 71 57 56 38 50 30 11 7 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: Please read the following statements and indicate your level of agreement with each. Rated from 1 "Strongly disagree" to 6 "Strongly agree.“ 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. Statements 71 62 52 24 Millennials Gen X Generational cut All consumers 66 58 23 Gen Z Baby boomers2 69 72 48 43
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Consumers whose top concern is rising prices are likelier than others to plan to reduce spend and scale back their lifestyle 71 65 50 43 15 I believe prices will continue to rise throughout the next 12 months I am concerned that the prices of everyday purchases have been increasing I intend to use more “buy now, pay later” services in the coming months I am planning to buy fewer products/ services in the future if prices continue to rise I have had to scale back my lifestyle due to an increase in prices Agreement to price-related statements1 % of respondents rating agreement 5 or 6 on 6-point scale Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers2, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Statements 65 63 57 40 25 COVID-19 pandemic Top source of concern All consumers 54 38 28 10 Invasion of Ukraine 67 76 71 14 Rising prices 56 48 1. Q: Please read the following statements and indicate your level of agreement with each. Rated from 1 "Strongly disagree" to 6 "Strongly agree.“ 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here top source of concern.
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 As spend on essential products rises, consumers save less and spend less on nonfood discretionary items—and expect further cuts Change of spend and expected change in spend in general categories % of respondents 6 9 14 14 28 54 66 17 23 21 43 37 28 74 62 65 29 9 Rent/ mortgage Energy/ utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Net change3 22 1 51 65 48 −44 15 −20 38 60 34 −43 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years Higher About the same Lower 8 11 18 17 42 53 69 18 29 29 37 36 23 71 53 55 21 10 Rent/ mortgage Energy/ utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Change in spend in the last 4–6 weeks1 Expected change in spend in the next 4–6 weeks2 1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.” "Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine. 2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more” as well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change. 3. Calculated by subtracting all "lower" answers from all "higher" answer in each column/time frame.
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Majorities of consumers report spend increases and expect further increases in energy, transport and gasoline, and food 1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased,” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.” "Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine. 2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more,” as well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change. 3. Calculated by adding the blue highlighted cells, ie, increased past spend or expect to increase future spend, excluding consumers that have decreased or expect to decrease their spend. Change of spend in general categories in last 4–6 weeks1 and expected in next 4–6 weeks,2 % of respondents Calculation example Observed/expected price increase,³ % 23 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years Decrease No change Increase Decrease 4 3 1 No change 4 63 6 Increase 2 7 10 Change of spend in next 4–6 weeks, % Change in spend in last 4–6 weeks, % Germany UK Italy France Spain 25 66 62 69 34 19 21 55 55 53 25 9 31 76 60 62 26 9 15 62 50 41 23 10 21 53 50 52 25 10 Energy/utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Rent/mortgage Europe 5 23 62 55 55 27 12 Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Observed/expected price increase,³ %
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Consumers expect to spend less than usual across most categories except groceries and gasoline for car travel Decreased Stayed the same Increased 13 26 20 40 44 48 29 38 38 15 26 52 24 35 41 41 50 41 20 12 12 11 16 14 11 65 26 13 40 25 17 18 15 17 Consumer electronics Travel by car Out-of-home entertainment Pet food and supplies 5 Entertainment at home Books/magazines/newspapers Vitamins and OTC medicine 10 Pet-care services Fitness and wellness Personal-care services Gasoline Domestic flights Vehicles Short-term home rentals Cruises Adventures and tours International flights Hotel/resort stays Net change,3 next 4–6 weeks Net change,3 last 4–6 weeks Change, last 4–6 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Net change > +15 Net change −15 to +15 Net change3 < −15 xx xx xx Change1 and expected change2 of spend by product categories % of respondents who shopped category 1. Q: In the past 4–6 weeks, how has the amount you have spent on these categories changed? “Spent less on this category,” “spent the same amount,” “spent more on this category.” 2. Q: Over the next 4–6 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? “Will spend less on this category,” “will spend about the same,” “will spend more on this category.” 3. Net change is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they decreased spend from the % of respondents stating they increased spend in the respective category. −22 −36 −46 −38 −17 −21 −29 38 −8 −37 −25 −34 −40 −20 −35 −34 −37 −23 −28 50 −39 16 −24 −23 −35 1 −24 29 −17 −33 −28 −39 −35 −42 −41 −48 −25 −6 −9 −32 −41 −44 −26 −41 9 Net change,3 next 4–6 weeks Net change,3 last 4–6 weeks −43 37 −13 4 −37 −7 −28 −27 −32 −28 −38 −37 −52 −5 −31 −35 −22 −33 Change, last 4–6 weeks 1 −15 12 −6 -9 −13 −10 −13 6 13 26 44 39 44 44 45 46 54 59 30 15 18 41 49 45 39 42 50 19 16 12 12 16 8 9 7 17 19 12 9 12 17 9 Home improvement, garden Restaurant Food take out and delivery Accessories Groceries Tobacco products Home and furniture Apparel Alcohol Quick service restaurant Footwear 11 Jewelry Toys and baby Skincare and makeup Household supplies Personal-care products 10 Sports and outdoors Kitchen and dining
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23 Two-thirds of consumers became more conscious about energy usage; Gen Z and millennials limit travel, and Gen X stock up 61 22 18 18 14 12 10 6 6 5 4 4 3 19 I have delayed/canceled a pending trip/vacation I have stocked up on products (eg, grocery or household items) that I use often in the event that there are supply chain shortages I have become more conscious about my home energy usage I have changed my mode of transport to use less gasoline/to save money I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from Russian companies I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a car/other vehicle I have sped up my plan to purchase a new home I have purchased supplies to donate to the Ukraine humanitarian effort and/or have donated money or time to volunteer I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from companies that have not taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine I have started/increased my purchase of products from companies that have taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a new home I have sold/plan to sell my car or other vehicle I have offered to shelter/sponsor Ukrainian refugees None of these Change in purchase behavior in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Generational cut 51 24 28 25 12 12 11 12 12 7 8 13 10 11 Millennials 61 18 24 25 13 12 12 7 7 10 6 5 4 14 Gen X 65 27 14 13 13 9 9 4 5 5 3 2 3 18 Gen Z Baby boomers2 60 20 13 13 16 13 8 5 3 1 2 0 1 26 All consumers Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: In which other areas of your life, if any, have you changed your shopping behavior in the last 4–6 weeks? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers2, percentage points
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Four emerging consumer themes in April 2022 The top concern in the UK is rising prices, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by the invasion of Ukraine (15%) and COVID-19 (7%). Only 2% identify Brexit as their top concern, but 15% say Brexit is a top three concern Confidence in the current state of the economy is very negative, with 61% of UK consumers, including even larger shares of millennials and Gen X, adopting a negative view Pessimism about a recovery has risen to 35%, the highest level since we first asked in 2020 Costs of energy/utilities and transport are eating away at consumer savings and nonfood spend Two-thirds of consumers say they responded to price increases by adapted their shopping behavior Consumers significantly trade down in stores and products; they switch from grocery/convenience stores to discounters (28%) and from branded to low-priced and private-label products (34%) Nine out of ten consumers noticed price changes in the last few weeks, particularly in groceries and household essentials In response to price increases, consumers are cutting spend on all but food and gasoline and reducing energy use; 61% say they also are much more conscious of their home energy use 1 3 4 2 Current events and sources of concern Confidence in economy and household finances Price increases reining in purchase intent Emerging demand shifts
  25. 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Faced with rising prices, many consumers switch to different brands and private labels, as well as change their preferred retailers v 64 34 32 28 15 10 10 8 7 Try a private label/store brand Try a new digital shopping method (eg, order groceries via app) Any new shopping behavior3 Switch to a different brand than normal New shopping method Shop from a different website than normal Shop from a different retailer/store than normal Use a new shopping method (eg, pickup and food delivery subscription) Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store Activities done in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Plan to do activities in next 4–6 weeks2 % of respondents who did not do activity in the last 4–6 weeks Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials 38 21 14 10 9 6 7 9 14 Activities Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? 2. Q: How likely are you to change your shopping behavior in the next 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? Rated from 1 "Not likely at all" to 6 "Extremely likely". "Extremely likely" and "Likely" answers counted for planning this activity 3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned.
  26. 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Gen Z and millennials are more likely than other generations to switch to new brands and retailers 64 34 32 28 15 10 10 8 7 Use a new shopping method (eg, pickup and food delivery subscription) Shop from a different website than normal Switch to a different brand than normal Total: Any new shopping behavior3 Try a private label/store brand Shop from a different retailer/store than normal Try a new digital shopping method (eg, order groceries via app) Switched from brick-and-mortar store to online Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store Generational cut All consumers Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials in the last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Gen Z 82 40 38 43 33 25 24 11 16 Millennials 63 35 38 39 23 14 15 12 11 Gen X 43 25 37 28 12 8 7 5 7 Baby boomers 82 40 21 14 6 2 2 5 2 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. 3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned. Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points
  27. 27. McKinsey & Company 27 Consumers have been switching away from grocery and convenience stores and toward discounters Use of retail formats in past 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you started shopping from a different retailer or store than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. How has your shopping at the following types of retailers/stores changed? 2. Calculated by subtracting all "shopped less" answers from all "shopped more" answers. Retail format 20 5 43 20 21 14 27 27 37 40 30 51 24 30 31 36 18 7 13 8 Specialty grocery store Discounter Supermarket Hypermarket Convenience store Did not shop there Shopped less Shopped same amount Shopped more Net change2 22 −9 −20 −25 −32 33% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks
  28. 28. McKinsey & Company 28 Price and value are the strongest drivers of switching retailers, with millennials also concerned about stock and accessibility 56 55 17 15 14 14 12 12 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 Better quality I can get all the items I need from 1 place More easily accessible from my home Products are in stock Better prices/promotions Better value Family/friend recommendations Cleaner/has better hygiene measures Less crowded/has shorter lines Save cost of gasoline Shares my values Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine Wanted to treat myself Supporting local businesses The company treats its employees well Offers natural/organic offerings I support their response to the invasion of Ukraine Has more sustainable/environmentally friendly options All consumers Top reasons for choice of new retailer/store for groceries/essentials1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks 65 44 50 68 44 44 17 16 18 16 19 11 16 22 8 10 13 17 26 14 6 14 9 13 10 11 7 12 8 9 14 8 5 8 8 8 10 8 6 16 4 2 2 6 4 4 2 4 8 5 6 8 7 2 Gen Z Millennials Gen X and baby boomers3 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Between −2 and +2 < −2 > +2 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points 1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a different retailer/store in the past 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (e.g., toiletries, cleaning products, etc.). What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons. 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a sub-group—here generational cut. 3. Aggregated due to low sample size of subgroups. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 33% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks
  29. 29. McKinsey & Company 29 A large proportion of consumers shopping for groceries and other essentials are trading down 22 25 27 35 34 34 40 41 42 42 52 4 5 3 3 5 6 4 3 4 4 4 74 70 70 62 61 60 56 56 54 54 44 Dairy and eggs Snacks and confectionary Household products Frozen foods Non-alcoholic beverages Bread and bakery Healthcare, beauty, and baby Fresh fruit and vegetables Fresh meat, fish, poultry Hot drinks Alcohol No change Switched to higher-priced brand Switched to private label/lower-priced brand Brand-switching behavior of consumers1 % of respondents who switched to a different brand for groceries or essentials in last 4–6 weeks Net trade down2 48 40 40 24 22 19 12 12 8 8 −12 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 49% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks 1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you tried a different brand than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. Which of the following best describes how/where you switched brands? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers for "switched to higher-priced brand” and “no change" from those for "switched to lower-priced brand/private label.“
  30. 30. McKinsey & Company 30 The main reasons consumers give for switching brands are to get better value and lower prices All consumers 69 50 14 13 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 Better price Better value for money Products are in stock Large package sizes Available where I’m shopping Better quality Supporting local businesses Wanted to try a new brand I found Wanted to treat myself Their response to invasion of Ukraine More sustainable/better for environment Better shipping, delivery cost Wanted to try a type of product that I’ve never tried before Cleaner, safer The company treats its employees well Wanted variety, change from normal routine Natural/organic Shares my values 48 17 8 4 8 11 6 1 1 6 5 4 4 5 1 4 Gen X 81 1 48 10 13 12 8 8 12 14 8 8 7 8 8 4 7 5 Gen Z and millennials3 54 3 83 55 19 19 9 11 6 4 3 8 3 5 3 - 1 5 1 - Baby boomers Top reasons for choice of new retailer/store for groceries/essentials,1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks Between −2 and +2 < −2 > +2 Difference for all consumers,2 percentage points 49% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy in the last 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products).What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons. 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. 3. Aggregated due to low sample size of subgroups. Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years
  31. 31. McKinsey & Company 31 The majority of consumers perceiving price increases change their behavior—for example, postponing a purchase or switching brands 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.“ 2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you done any of the following when purchasing [product]? Includes respondents who answered they switched to a different or lower-cost brand, delayed their purchase, switched to a different store or website, purchased a smaller quantity. 69 53 53 50 49 46 45 45 42 41 40 37 32 Home decoration and furniture Fitness and wellness services Pet food and supplies Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine Home improvement and gardening supplies Kitchen and dining products Skin care and makeup Apparel Consumer electronics Accessories Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Footwear Jewelry Consumer-observed price increases1 % of respondents rating price change as 4 or 5 on 5-point scale Behavior change when price increase is perceived2 % of respondents reacting to perceived price increase 40 38 36 34 40 49 42 49 52 30 38 38 20 6 19 14 13 11 16 20 29 27 28 19 24 23 11 11 11 16 6 8 8 7 10 17 14 19 11 1 4 3 6 4 2 7 4 5 6 7 10 1 22 18 30 29 31 25 24 11 15 28 15 29 21 16 9 13 10 8 8 8 4 9 8 15 18 15 9 24 15 16 23 14 17 11 12 20 8 14 36 17 10 9 11 3 3 1 1 4 11 8 4 0 Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years Perception of price increase and actions consumers take by product category No action Delayed a purchase Switched to a different brand Switched to a higher-cost brand Switched to a lower-cost brand Switched to a different store/website Purchased a larger size/quantity Purchased a smaller size/quantity
  32. 32. McKinsey & Company 32 Lower price and availability are key drivers of brand choice, with trust and fair treatment of workers also important Source: McKinsey & Company UK Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,013, sampled to match UK general population 18+ years 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product/brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.“ 2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (ratings of 1 or 2) value from the important (ratings of 5 or 6) value. Reason for choosing a product/brand in the past 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents rating reason as 1 or 2 (unimportant) and 5 or 6 (important) on 6-point scale 55 33 23 28 24 26 67 20 48 40 19 33 30 Rational Beliefs Sustainability 19 22 23 25 25 4 7 23 8 12 22 21 30 Unimportant Important Net importance2 14 6 2 −2 −6 63 47 1 27 11 9 −10 40 Lower price Available in the store closest to me Locally sourced/locally owned Brand is actively supporting the humanitarian effort in Ukraine Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine Brand that treats employees well Brand has stopped doing business in Russia Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free Small or neutral carbon footprint Sustainably sourced materials Fair trade practices Brand that I know and trust
  33. 33. McKinsey & Company 33 Reason for trying a new brand in the past 4–6 weeks1 Net importance rating2 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product or brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.” 2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (rating of 1 or 2) value from the important (rating of 5 or 6) value. “Rational” Beliefs Sustain- ability Sustainability is more important for Germany, Italy, and Spain, with Spain additionally valuing a clear position regarding Ukraine Europe 5 27 21 11 9 1 54 45 24 43 32 5 1 -8 Available in the store closest to me Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives Fair trade practices No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free Small or neutral carbon footprint Sustainably sourced materials Lower price Locally sourced/locally owned Brand that I know and trust Brand that treats employees well Brand actively supports humanitarian effort in Ukraine Brand has stopped doing business in Russia Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine France Spain UK Italy Germany 34 22 14 12 9 54 49 21 40 29 -5 -13 0 29 16 7 2 -7 40 36 27 33 26 -13 -16 -22 6 14 2 -2 -6 63 47 1 40 27 9 11 -10 32 21 8 12 -4 44 36 31 40 32 5 -2 -3 35 33 22 22 12 66 57 40 60 48 23 17 11 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years

Notes de l'éditeur

  • Custom Cut – Savanta / Chris

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