Publicité

McKinsey Survey: Italian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

McKinsey on Marketing & Sales
19 Nov 2021
Publicité

Contenu connexe

Présentations pour vous(20)

Similaire à McKinsey Survey: Italian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis(20)

Publicité

Plus de McKinsey on Marketing & Sales(16)

Publicité

McKinsey Survey: Italian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. McKinsey & Company 1 Five emerging consumer themes in October 2021 1 Optimism and spend intent returning More Italian consumers are optimistic about economic recovery (35 percent, versus 17 percent in February), sustained by the start of the vaccination campaign Over one-third of consumers want to splurge; overall spending intent is still negative but with a growth trend 2 Stickiness of digital In almost all product categories, more than half of consumers shop omnichannel today Across multiple product categories, about 25 percent of consumers cite social media as an influence for their purchase decisions 5 Preparation for holiday shopping Half of consumers say they will spend about the same amount during 2021 holidays as last year; social media will influence shopping decisions About four in ten people will start holiday shopping earlier, half of which just want to do something fun 4 A tentative return to out-of-home Seven in ten Italian consumers have structurally modified their behavior when out of home Out-of-home activity has increased since February—particularly social activities, indoor dining, and fitness 3 Loyalty is under threat More than half of consumers who tried to buy an out-of-stock item went to another retailer to complete the purchase Almost three-fourths of consumers have tried a new shopping behavior in the last three months, most often buying a new brand
  2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 15 14 17 17 22 21 22 32 41 49 50 50 46 65 74 67 44 37 33 33 32 14 1 5 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy, which will show regression or fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Optimism is strongly returning in Italy, as 35 percent predict the economy will rebound within 2 or 3 months 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 US Germany 10/15–22 UK 10/15–22 10/9–15 France 10/15–22 Change in optimistic vs Feb survey, percentage points +3 +3 +13 +14 Italy 10/15–22 +18 Spain 10/15–22 +16 India 10/18–25 +3 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey China 10/17–22 +6 +2 Japan 10/18–20 13 52 35
  3. McKinsey & Company 3 36 34 36 31 26 33 21 13 53 54 50 57 60 54 62 52 12 12 14 12 14 13 17 35 Sept 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2021 Mar 2020 June 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Feb 2021 Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Average of weekly pulse surveys shown for March through May 2020. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 ItalyConsumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,076; 09/24–09/27/2020, n = 1,071; 06/18–06/21/2020, n = 1,008; 05/21–05/24/2020, n = 1,000; 04/30–05/03/2020, n = 1,001; 04/16–04/19/2020, n = 1,002; 04/02–04/05/2020, n = 1,009; 03/26–03/29/2020, n =1,005; 03/20–03/22/2020 n = 1,003, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Overall optimism has increased in 2021, following the start of the vaccination campaign Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6-12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID- 19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession 20202 2021
  4. McKinsey & Company 4 Higher-income consumers are significantly more optimistic than lower-income groups Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 11 13 27 14 35 21 21 46 15 10 0 5 25 20 30 35 40 45 50 Sept 2020 18 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Low (<€25k) Medium (€25k–50k) High (>€50k) 27 25 18 28 19 13 20 18 10 20 0 30 5 10 15 50 35 25 40 45 Feb 2021 Sept 2020 Oct 2021 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Optimism by income Pessimism by income Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19 by income level,1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091; 09/24–09/27/2020, n = 1,071, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  5. McKinsey & Company 5 Optimism holds across generations; vaccinated consumers are driving the trend Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years By generation By vaccination status 11 25 51 59 38 16 Vaccinated Unvaccinated 5 18 13 14 53 48 54 51 42 34 33 35 Gen X Gen Z Millennials Baby boomers2 Optimistic Pessimistic Mixed
  6. McKinsey & Company 6 Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 28 27 26 36 12 8 6 4 60 65 68 60 Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 30 33 7 3 63 64 Unvaccinated Vaccinated 30 7 63 Overall 1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned By generation By vaccination status2 Overall, ~60% of consumers expect to return to normalcy in 2022 or after, with no clear difference across generations ~30% of consumers are already engaging in normal routine While about 30 percent say their routines are back to normal, most expect normalcy to return during or after 2022 Expectations on routines returning to normal,1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  7. McKinsey & Company 7 An increasing portion of consumers indicate that their income, spending, and savings are stable Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 Increased slightly/a lot Reduced slightly/a lot About the same Past 2 weeks 3 41 54 Past 2 weeks 3 44 56 3 67 30 Past 2 weeks 44 9 47 8 Past 2 weeks 45 Past 2 weeks 46 8 53 39 Past 2 weeks 45 57 16 39 Past 2 weeks 33 15 52 Past 2 weeks 17 26 Past 2 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,076, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 2 weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Household income Household spending Household savings Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27 Oct 15–20 Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27 Oct 15–20 Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27 Oct 15–20 COVID-19 impact on household finances,1 % of respondents
  8. McKinsey & Company 8 About 40 percent of consumers say their finances are either unaffected or back to normal in 2021 Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years By generation By vaccination status2 ~60% of baby boomers say their finances either were unaffected or are back to normal, vs ~30% for Gen Z and millennials Expectations on personal/household finances returning to normal,1 % of respondents 32 37 37 58 11 8 6 57 55 57 40 Baby boomers3 Gen Z Millennials Gen X 2 43 38 6 7 51 55 Vaccinated Unvaccinated Not affected/already returned In or after 2022 In 2021 43 6 51 Overall
  9. McKinsey & Company 9 While consumers still want to splurge, this intent to spend has moderated since early 2021, especially among younger consumers Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and half which you feel you will spend more on now? 2. Baby Boomers includes silent generation. Insufficient sample (n < 30). Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Millennials Gen X Baby boomers2 40% −28 56% −15 Gen Z 58%4 −31 44% −3 46% −3 56% −14 19% −8 28% −13 31% −11 20% −7 38% −9 51% −14 Generation Respondents who plan/do not plan to splurge/treat themselves in 20211 % of respondents Low (<€25k/year) Middle (€25k–50k/year) High (>€50k/year) >70% <30% 50–70% 30–50% p.p. change from Feb 21 XX Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, % 47 53 Feb 2021 Plan on splurging 63 37 Oct 2021 Do not plan on splurging Change < −10 pp .
  10. McKinsey & Company 10 Travel and out-of-home dining see the strongest consumer intent to splurge, although intent declined since February Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of October 2021 Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1 % of all respondents with intent to splurge 1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 6 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 45 43 38 34 23 20 16 16 16 15 12 10 10 Items for your home Electronics Travel, lodging, and vacation Personal services (eg, spa) Restaurants, dining out, bars Apparel, shoes, accessories Out-of-home entertainment Makeup, skin-care products Sports apparel and equipment Fitness, sports, and outdoors Household essentials Pets Outdoor living (eg, furniture) Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 39 40 38 66 50 35 39 56 41 44 36 29 27 38 36 29 34 25 15 23 30 18 16 19 16 18 19 12 11 22 14 12 23 18 17 6 Generational cut 18 17 14 9 14 14 9 10 16 11 10 6 16 8 13 3 Change from Feb 2021, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 −8 −6 2 0 −1 −12 N/A −1 N/A 0 1 N/A N/A Categories Difference from all respondents, percentage points
  11. McKinsey & Company 11 Though consumers report negative net spending intent overall, discretionary categories have increased since February Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of February 2021 Net intent >1 Net intent −15 to 0 Net intent < −15 8 17 26 28 33 31 29 25 41 38 28 8 8 19 36 29 33 25 14 13 7 17 9 13 8 7 13 7 8 8 12 9 7 6 Tobacco products Groceries Quick-service restaurant 10 Footwear 5 Restaurant Personal-care products Food takeout and delivery Household supplies Alcohol Apparel Jewelry Accessories Toys and baby Skin care and makeup Home and furniture Sports and outdoors Kitchen and dining Home improvement, garden Decrease Stay the same Increase 11 16 12 22 32 33 16 28 17 18 33 38 24 34 36 40 43 35 6 12 6 20 9 13 8 25 13 14 19 19 19 17 16 18 Pet food and supplies Vitamins and OTC medicine 10 Out-of-home entertainment Entertainment at home Books, magazines, newspapers Consumer electronics 10 Pet-care services Fitness and wellness Personal-care services Gasoline Vehicles Short-term home rentals Travel by car Cruises Adventures and tours International flights Hotel/resort stays Domestic flights Net intent2 1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1 % of respondents who bought these categories at least once since 2019 −1 3 −2 8 20 45 23 28 23 18 18 −2 1 10 16 21 6 10 Change since Feb 2021 Change since Feb 2021 −1 7 2 2 14 50 8 30 22 31 19 36 32 52 48 49 43 46 Net intent2 −33 6 −15 −1 −24 −12 −13 −21 −23 −14 −20 −12 −31 0 −11 −20 −26 −19 −2 −16 −22 −13 −7 −15 −9 7 −24 −5 −15 −17 −23 −27 −4 −20 −5 −17 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  12. McKinsey & Company 12 −40 10 −80 −50 −70 −10 20 −60 0 −20 −30 Nov 2020 Feb 2021 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Sept 2020 Oct 2021 Out-of-home entertainment Groceries Food takeout and delivery Skin care and makeup Consumer electronics Fitness and wellness Apparel Domestic flight June 2020 Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1 Net intent2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091; 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 1,076; 09/24–09/27/2020, n = 1,071; 06/18–06/21/2020, n = 1,008; 05/21–05/24/2020, n = 1,000; 04/30–05/03/2020, n = 1,001; 04/16–04/19/2020, n = 1,002; 04/02–04/05/2020, n = 1,009; 03/26–03/29/2020, n =1,005; 03/20–03/22/2020 n = 1,003, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Net intent for discretionary spending is improving but remains negative since the start of the pandemic 1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Optimism and spend intent returning | Current as of February 2021 2020 2021
  13. McKinsey & Company 13 1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months? 2. Q: Which best described how you have purchased the following categories over the last 3 months? 52 48 41 40 35 32 28 28 27 26 25 23 23 23 15 14 46 49 55 51 59 53 64 57 61 60 63 67 64 61 69 61 2 3 4 9 6 15 8 15 12 14 12 10 13 16 16 25 Kitchen and dining Groceries Household supplies Pet food, supplies Footwear Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicine Fitness and wellness services Personal-care products Skin care and makeup Jewelry Home improvement, gardening supplies Home decoration, furniture Apparel Accessories Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Consumer electronics Research and purchase only in stores Omnichannel Research and purchase only online Most consumers shop in an omnichannel way across product categories Stickiness of digital | Current as of October 2021 Product searches1 and purchases2 by channel % of respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  14. McKinsey & Company 14 Across categories, about 25 percent of consumers cite social media as an influence, with larger shares for younger generations Stickiness of digital | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced toward a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories? 37 36 35 34 33 30 29 29 27 23 20 19 17 17 15 13 Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Apparel Jewelry Home decoration and furniture Accessories Skin care and makeup Fitness and wellness services Consumer electronics Footwear Home improvement, gardening supplies Personal-care products Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicine Household supplies Kitchen and dining Groceries Pet food and supplies Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 Generational cut Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Categories Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1 % of respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months Difference from all respondents, percentage points 35 34 28 55 46 33 19 44 43 26 26 63 42 30 15 55 35 35 20 48 35 26 19 59 35 27 14 41 32 30 17 52 32 25 13 39 30 23 14 37 29 18 9 18 24 19 15 21 22 20 10 26 22 52 24 25 20 16 13 16 16 9 7 4
  15. McKinsey & Company 15 Using more Using same Using less Italian consumers are intensifying usage of pickup and delivery services Stickiness of digital | Current as of October 2021 14 14 25 29 17 9 16 7 12 10 26 19 5 19 33 57 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 40 10 53 51 40 4 37 35 12 8 52 54 9 51 29 41 6 58 38 4 48 48 42 8 10 46 45 66 45 7 44 55 41 41 52 9 54 37 10 8 53 4 5 68 28 4 50 42 1. Q: And have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Frequency of participating1 % shown among consumers who have participated in the activity in the last 3 months Used or did in last 3 months % of total respondents Drive-thru line for a fast-food restaurant Curbside pickup from a restaurant Used a food delivery provider Self checkout or scan-and-go at a physical store Buy online, pick up in store Curbside delivery at a store Purchased secondhand products online Downloaded/used a new store/restaurant app Purchased directly from social media Used an app/website for same-day delivery Used an app/website for delivery within 1 hour Shopped at a store I had not shopped at before for groceries Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care, grooming at home Tried making something myself/DIY project Changed my primary grocery store
  16. McKinsey & Company 16 Italian consumers have replaced out-of-home activities with at- home alternatives, such as meal delivery and wellness apps Stickiness of digital | Current as of October 2021 9 10 7 3 32 27 56 21 11 2 23 9 5 12 16 21 64 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Using less Using same Using more 60 68 42 62 5 4 3 57 57 38 1 63 34 54 6 53 54 41 6 63 39 7 12 33 55 50 43 2 75 20 4 5 31 7 37 44 2 45 29 45 49 25 6 31 5 6 63 5 44 52 58 1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months?; Q: Which best describes how often you have used each of the following items in the past 3 months? Frequency of participating1 % shown among consumers who have participated in the activity in the last 3 months Used or did in last 3 months % of total respondents Wellness app Digital workout bike or machine Online personal training/fitness Grocery delivery Restaurant food delivery Meal kit delivery Online streaming Video conferencing for professional use Virtual hangouts and video chats for personal use Telemedicine for physical health care Telemedicine for mental health care Playing online games Watching online games Remote learning for myself Remote learning for my kids Used social media Used TikTok
  17. McKinsey & Company 17 More than half of consumers who could not purchase at least one item switched retailers to get a proper substitute Loyalty is under threat | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available? 2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Respondents who planned to purchase something but could not, due to unavailability1 % of respondents 33 24 19 15 9 Bought a different brand or similar product at a different retailer Waited until it was available at the same retailer Bought the product at a different retailer Did not buy anything Bought a different product at the same retailer Consumer responses to stockouts2 % of respondents who could not make a planned purchase 54 46 Oct 2021 Could not purchase at least 1 item Able to purchase all items
  18. McKinsey & Company 18 73 43 40 31 21 12 Private label/store brand Any new shopping behavior Different brand Different retailer/store/website New digital shopping method New shopping method3 Loyalty is under threat | Current as of October 2021 Generational cut All consumers Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. Behaviors in past 3 months1 % of respondents 30 to 40 percent of Italian consumers, especially millennials and Gen Z, continue to switch brands or retailers Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Gen Z Millennials 84 85 42 47 54 47 36 42 25 29 15 21 Gen X Baby boomers2 74 57 42 40 42 28 32 20 23 12 12 5
  19. McKinsey & Company 19 Value 58 Availability 15 Purpose-driven 27 Quality/organic 30 Novelty 39 Personal choice 22 Health/hygiene 9 All consumers Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents who tried a new brand since COVID-19 began Loyalty is under threat | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 13 35 Better value Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before Products are in stock Is natural/organic Better prices/promotions Shares my values Better shipping/delivery cost Wanted to try a new brand I found 8 7 Larger package sizes 21 Better quality Supporting local businesses Is more sustainable/better for the environment The company treats its employees well 12 Wanted to treat myself Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine 29 Is cleaner/safer 21 Is available where I’m shopping (ie, in-store or online) 6 7 19 13 6 6 12 15 9 Convenience 8 24 32 31 31 40 35 7 5 6 9 4 7 12 16 18 8 8 6 12 12 13 8 6 4 10 2 3 18 23 17 15 13 11 18 24 23 18 25 23 15 10 10 14 11 13 12 3 10 Baby boomers2 Gen Z and millennials Gen X 7 7 10 Between −2 and +2 < −2 >2 While value and novelty are top reasons for consumers to switch brands, 27 percent have switched for purpose-driven reasons x Net % of respondents per category Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  20. McKinsey & Company 20 Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 50 12 11 42 34 13 Oct 2021 May 2020 Feb 2021 Nov 2020 June 2020 Sept 2020 Overall Vaccinated Unvaccinated 51 35 47 50 Gen Z Millennials 50 Gen X Baby boomers3 51 53 48 Medium (€25k–50k) Low (<€25k) High (>€50k) 50 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities 2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are people 45–54 years old, baby boomers are 55 years old and above 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,076; 09/24–09/27/2020, n = 1,071; 06/18–06/21/2020, n = 1,008; 05/21–05/24/2020, n = 1,000; sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years By generation2 By vaccination adoption By income 51% of baby boomers are doing out-of-home activities 53% of more high-income households are doing out-of-home activities 51% of people who are vaccinated are doing out-of-home activities Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities increased substantially
  21. McKinsey & Company 21 Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1 % shown for respondents who engaged in the activity at least once prior to COVID-19 Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past 2 weeks? Social Personal care Entertain- ment 55 28 23 21 40 50 39 72 64 Attend an outdoor event Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar Go to a hair or nail salon Go out for family entertainment Attend an indoor cultural event Visit a crowded outdoor public place Go to the gym or fitness studio Get together with family Get together with friends 78 94 83 66 40 42 47 11 25 18 18 Travel by airplane Shop for groceries/necessities Work outside my home Travel more than 2 hours by car Shop for non-necessities Go to a shopping mall Use public transportation Use a ride-sharing service Travel by train Stay in a hotel Rent a short-term home Work Shopping Transport/ travel ≥50% <50% High consumer engagement seen across many out-of-home activities, particularly shopping and social activities Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  22. McKinsey & Company 22 1. Q: With the rise of the Delta variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed? 21 21 19 38 40 41 39 36 37 2 3 Low (<€25k) Medium (€25k–50k) 3 High (>€50k) Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 20 17 40 37 37 43 3 Vaccinated 3 Unvaccinated 20 39 38 Engage less 3 Overall Engage with adjusted behavior Engage same as before Delta Engage more By income By vaccination status Overall, consumers are more cautious when going out, with no major difference across income bands One-fifth of unvaccinated consumers have not reduced or changed their out-of-home behavior because of the Delta variant Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of Delta variant,1 % of respondents Roughly 80 percent of consumers have changed the way they engage in out-of-home activities because of the Delta variant Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  23. McKinsey & Company 23 Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19 but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs pre-COVID-19”; “Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.” Work Shopping Transport/ travel Social Personal care Entertain- ment 32 65 37 63 35 38 Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar 62 65 Go out for family entertainment Attend an indoor cultural event 35 Attend an outdoor event Visit a crowded outdoor public place 68 30 70 Go to a hair or nail salon 26 74 Go to the gym or fitness studio 34 66 Get together with family 31 69 Get together with friends Work outside my home 35 76 Travel by airplane 28 29 71 Shop for groceries/necessities 72 Shop for non-necessities 66 34 66 Go to a shopping mall 41 Stay in a hotel 24 Travel more than 2 hours by car 34 40 Use public transportation 25 75 Use a ride-sharing service Travel by train 36 64 65 60 39 61 Rent a short-term home 59 Doing less, doing in a modified way Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19 Engagement in out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents Depending on the category, about 60 to 75 percent of consumers have modified their behavior when out of home Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  24. McKinsey & Company 24 Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-19,1 % of respondents Tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Change >3 pp 13 11 13 22 7 3 10 4 3 3 3 Renovated/remodeled my home Set up a specific work-from-home space Moved into a smaller home Set up a gym at home Worked more from home Decided to change jobs Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat) Started homeschooling children Moved into a bigger home Bought a property Sold a property Oct 2021 Pet adoption House move Investments/ divestments Total2 Change from Feb 2021, percentage points 2 1 1 1 0 10 Work/study change −5 2 N/A3 29 7 Home renovation −3 −1 5 30 6 1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 2. Total % of people who choose option(s) in the category. 3. Data not available from Feb 2021 survey. Even though consumers have increased out-of-home activity, investments in home environment were high during past 12 months Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,014; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,091, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  25. McKinsey & Company 25 Three themes are emerging among Italian consumers for the 2021 holiday shopping season Consumers return to stores Almost half of all consumers (48%) plan to go to stores in person for shopping; younger consumers expect to focus more on online research, especially social media and brand websites Spend pulled forward Loyalty being tested Many consumers (39%) are spending earlier than last year due to potential product shortages (38%), shipping delays (32%), and concern about unexpected COVID-19 challenges (34%) 78% of consumers say they will shop differently this year, with the main switch (33%) being to different retailers. Primary decision factor is price, along with quality for younger shoppers and convenience for older ones 1 2 3
  26. McKinsey & Company 26 Overall, consumers indicate a rather neutral attitude toward the holiday shopping season; younger consumers are polarized Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 27 34 29 23 28 34 45 63 44 31 25 14 Baby boomers2 Gen Z Millennials Gen X 1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager,“ "Excited," and "Other." 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 28 46 25 Overall Excited/ eager Neutral Stressed/ anxious Consumer attitudes toward the 2021 holiday shopping season1 % of respondents By annual income By generation 28 28 30 45 48 43 26 23 28 Low (<€25k) Medium (€25k–50k) High (>€50k) Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  27. McKinsey & Company 27 Majority of consumers plan to spend about the same as last year across all categories during 2021 holidays Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 55 23 Out-of- home eating 65 20 12 9 18 Personal travel 66 27 Family travel 19 24 67 31 15 Gifts (for myself and others) 15 65 Redecorate my home, put out seasonal items 23 46 Large household appliances 1. Q: If you compare the upcoming holidays 2021 with the ones last year, how much do you plan to change your spending level in the following categories? Will spend more Will spend about the same Will spend less 2021 holiday spending plans vs spending in 20201 % of respondents who spent on the category during the holidays in 2020 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years There is a propensity to increase spending in outdoor activities (ie, traveling and out-of-home eating) in light of the recent reduction of COVID-19 restrictions
  28. McKinsey & Company 28 Younger consumers plan to research holiday spending through social media, while in-store browsing remains popular for all ages Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 48 32 27 26 25 22 14 9 5 Browsing in pop-up stores Retailer websites Advertisements from TV or streaming media Browsing in stores Brand websites Offline advertisements Browsing through holiday markets Emails from relevant retailers Social media Generational cut Gen Z 43 28 Millennials 45 22 Gen X 48 24 Baby boomers3 53 10 5 5 2 21 16 14 9 39 35 17 10 27 30 39 29 27 32 31 30 18 6 9 11 9 17 27 25 30 Research channels Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 1. Q: Which channels are you planning to use to get new ideas and do research for your holiday shopping? Please select top 3. 2. Offline advertisements include catalogs, fliers, magazines, and newspaper advertisements. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Consumer research plans by channel for holiday 20211 % of all respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  29. McKinsey & Company 29 47 2 Social media is expected to have significant influence on holiday purchase decisions among younger consumers Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: How much influence do you expect social media to have on your holiday purchase decisions this season? Selected from "Significant influence," "Some influence," and "Will not influence." 2. Q: Which channels do you think will influence your holiday purchase decisions? Asked of respondents indicating social media will influence their 2021 holiday purchases. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Expected influence of social media on 2021 holiday purchases,1 % of respondents 52 26 35 54 73 48 74 65 46 27 Overall Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 Will not influence Will influence 39 46 74 46 25 13 8 67 65 30 19 16 8 54 65 43 23 15 18 4 38 67 43 8 21 9 59 61 45 27 19 15 6 Most influential social-media channels2 % of respondents who expect social-media influence Top 3 platforms by % Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Facebook YouTube Instagram TikTok Twitter Snapchat Pinterest
  30. McKinsey & Company 30 Although consumers are more willing to join get-togethers on the upcoming holidays versus 2020, most plan to limit their size Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: What best describes what you expect to do for the holidays this year [2021]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: What best describes your holiday get-togethers last year [2020]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Split by annual income Split by generation 13 13 5 6 5 8 13 5 18 21 33 23 28 26 10 16 23 24 21 35 23 22 1 19 54 47 33 29 36 48 −16 60 Medium (€25k– 50k) Low (<€25k) High (>€50k) Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 Change from 2020,2 percentage points Holiday plans in 20211 % of respondents < −3 Between −3 and 3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 8 23 23 47 Will travel to a limited family get-together Will travel to and attend a large get- together with family and friends Do not plan to travel and will limit getting together to immediate family only Will not travel but will have a family/friends get-together outside my immediate family Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  31. McKinsey & Company 31 Number of in-person holiday-related events is expected to decrease compared with pre-COVID-19 across all generations Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: About how many in-person holiday-related events do you attend in a typical year without COVID-19? 2. Q: Compared with the number of in-person events you attended pre-COVID-19, about how many in-person events do you expect to attend over the holidays this coming year [2021]? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 6.1 3.8 1.9 Family gatherings Parties with friends Work-related gatherings Event type Between −1 and 1 < −1 >1 Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 Generation cut 4.8 5.6 5.7 7.4 5.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 1.0 Difference in number vs pre-COVID-19 −1.4 −1.6 −0.8 Holiday-related events consumers attended1 or expect to attend2 in 2021 Number of events Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  32. McKinsey & Company 32 1. Q: Do you plan to shop for the holidays earlier or later in 2021 compared with last year’s holiday season [2020]? Possible answers: “significantly earlier”; “slightly earlier”; “starting at about the same time”; “slightly later”; “significantly later”; “I am not planning to do any holiday season shopping.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding; 10% of Italian consumers surveyed indicated they do not plan to shop for the holidays this year. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 3. Q: What are the primary reasons you plan to shop earlier for the holidays in 2021? 4 Low 6 38 56 38 58 Medium 40 56 3 High About the same time Earlier 39 Later 4 57 Overall Overall By income By generation 45 46 8 Gen Z Millennials 41 7 53 40 55 5 Gen X 34 65 1 Baby boomers2 More consumers, especially younger generations, plan to start holiday shopping earlier this year Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 Main reasons for consumers to start shopping earlier3 % of respondents who plan to shop earlier in 2021 38% 32% 27% 34% Holiday shopping start vs last year1 % of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays this year of Italian consumers are concerned about availability of Italian consumers are concerned about shipping lead time of Italian consumers want to do something fun right now of Italian consumers are concerned about unexpected challenges due to COVID-19 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  33. McKinsey & Company 33 While the majority of Italian consumers intend to start their holiday shopping in November, over 10 percent began by October Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 13 52 34 1 I already started In November In December In January 21 23 56 75–100% of my shopping 50–74% of my shopping 1–49% of my shopping 1. Q: When do you plan to start your shopping for the seasonal holidays this year? Excludes 10% of Italian respondents indicating they would do no holiday shopping. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: How much of your holiday season shopping have you done so far? Asked of respondents who indicated they already started. Holiday shopping timing, 20211 % of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays this year Holiday shopping completion status, 20212 % of respondents who already started Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  34. McKinsey & Company 34 Roughly one-third of consumers expect to shop at different retailers than last year Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 17 13 9 More value for money Safety Check more things off my list at once 78 33 29 21 20 15 Shop more at local/independent stores Any change of shopping behavior3 Shop at a different place Shop more online Shop more in person Shop earlier 1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different from last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Excludes respondents indicating they will not shop for the holidays this year. 3. Percent of respondents who chose at least 1 behavior that will change. Anticipated different holiday shopping behaviors1 % of respondents2 Reasons given for changing place to shop during holiday season % of respondents3 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  35. McKinsey & Company 35 High-income consumers expect to increase both online and in- person shopping; millennials shop earlier, and Gen X going online Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 29 20 21 Shop more in person Shop earlier Shop more online Income cut Gen Z Millen- nials Gen X Baby boom- ers3 Shopping behaviors Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points Anticipated changes in shopping behavior for holiday 2021,1 % of respondents2 Generational cut 30 35 30 23 23 27 20 12 24 22 19 21 28 29 32 22 20 15 14 24 25 Medium (€25k- 50k) Low (<€25k) High (>€50k) Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared to last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Percent of respondents indicating they would be shopping differently for the holidays this year vs 2020 (78% of Italian consumers). 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
  36. McKinsey & Company 36 Value, availability, and convenience drive decisions on where to shop; older consumers overindex on price, Gen Z on purpose Preparation for holiday shopping | Current as of October 2021 47 18 22 19 12 28 21 25 23 13 5 11 Ability to purchase most gifts from one place Better prices, promotions Convenience Ability to see products in person Better shipping, delivery costs Easy to shop across store and online Product availability Offers unique items Better quality Supporting local businesses Company treating its employees well Cleaner/better hygiene measures Generational cut 14 54 13 19 29 21 3 12 21 23 10 Gen Z 13 42 18 21 24 19 10 12 25 36 16 13 Millennials 10 41 22 30 25 21 5 9 26 25 15 15 Gen X 13 46 21 19 30 21 6 11 24 25 13 16 Baby boomers2 28 1. Q: Please tell us what your primary considerations will be when deciding where to shop. Please select up to 3. 2. Baby boomers include traditional or silent generation. Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Primary considerations when deciding where to shop1 % of respondents Convenience Value Availability Uniqueness Purpose-driven Health/hygiene Quality 47 56 x Net % of respondents per category 44 25 23 17 11 Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/20/2021, n = 1,014, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
Publicité