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McKinsey Survey: Japanese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

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McKinsey Survey: Japanese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

Although Japanese consumer optimism about economic recovery is improving steadily, the majority of consumers are still cautious about reengaging in out-of-home activities.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Japan from February 24–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on Japanese consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

Although Japanese consumer optimism about economic recovery is improving steadily, the majority of consumers are still cautious about reengaging in out-of-home activities.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Japan from February 24–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on Japanese consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

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McKinsey Survey: Japanese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 We have seen five significant new consumer behaviors from the impact of COVID-19, some of which will have a lasting impact Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan‘s general population 18+ years 85% of consumers are not yet resuming “normal” out-of- home activities 1. Remaining cautiousness 38% of consumers have changed stores, brands, or the way they shop 3. Continued loyalty disruption 96% of consumers intend to continue purchasing online after COVID-19 (from those who currently do) 4. Rooting of new digital habits 60% of consumers expect to work from home the same or more after COVID-19 5. Continued flexible work style 2. Spend surge by wealthier, younger people 58% of high-income Gen Z consumers surveyed intend to splurge after COVID-19
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey 10 14 14 18 17 32 21 31 25 37 43 45 46 53 59 50 62 52 71 61 47 41 39 30 24 18 17 17 2 4 20 67 12 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/ fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Japan continues to be the least optimistic country among researched countries even with a slight increase since November Remaining cautiousness 1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity) Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. US 2/18–22 India 2/20–3/3 China 2/20–3/8 Mexico 2/20–3/2 Brazil 2/20–3/1 Germany 2/23–27 UK 2/23–27 Spain 2/23–27 Italy 2/23–27 France 2/23–27 Japan 2/24–27 Change in optimistic vs Nov survey, percentage point 0 +9 +9 +6 +13 +1 +7 +4 +3 +5 +3
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014; 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020, n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600; 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years Japan Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression / fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Optimism regarding Japan’s economic recovery has improved steadily since summer, with a larger uplift since November 1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Remaining cautiousness 41% 50% 43% 44% 42% 35% 31% 33% 20% 53% 45% 51% 52% 53% 60% 62% 60% 67% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 12% Nov 9–15 Jun 19–22 Sep 22–28 Mar 28–29 Apr 10–12 Apr 3–5 4% Apr 17–19 May 22–24 Feb 24–27
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Household income1 % of respondents Household spending1 % of respondents Household savings1 % of respondents Outlook on income shows little change since late 2020 but there is a slight increase in anticipated spending and savings Increased slightly/a lot Reduced slightly/a lot About the same 72% 22% 2% 71% 26% 75% Past 2 weeks 2% Past 2 weeks 3% 26% Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 71% 8% 22% 27% Past 2 weeks 8% 65% 11% 65% 24% Past 2 weeks 14% Past 2 weeks 68% 18% 13% Past 2 weeks 68% 19% 17% 64% 19% Past 2 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014; 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27 1 Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending, and amount of income put away as savings over the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Remaining cautiousness Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27 Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1 % of respondents Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities has dropped in connection with a new round of lockdowns 15 29 27 19 Feb 27 Nov 15 Sep 28 Jun 22 Overall Cautious Vaccinated 24% Interested Unlikely 10% 17% ~24% of people citing preference to not be vaccinated are doing out-of-home activities ~23% of Gen Z are doing out-of-home activities By generation2 By income By vaccination adoption interest ~16% of less wealthy households are doing out-of-home activities 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. 2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. 3. Low sample size <30. Remaining cautiousness Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years N/A3 23% Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers 10% 18% 16% High (>JP¥8M) Medium (JP¥4M–JP¥8M) Low (<JP¥4M) 16% 14% 15%
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Consumers will return to out-of-home activities once1… % of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging Most Japanese are waiting for lifted restrictions and wider vaccine rollout before reengaging fully with out-of-home activities 11 34 27 28 Government lifts restrictions Government lifts restrictions + other requirements Vaccination coverage COVID-19 no longer spreading 85% of people are not currently engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Vaccination coverage Government lifts restrictions and… 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Remaining cautiousness 9% Stores, restaurants, and other indoor places start taking safety measures 11% Medical authorities deem safe 14% I see other people returning 18% vaccine is widely distributed 8% I have been vaccinated 1% Family member(s) vaccinated
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 As the pandemic drags on, Japanese consumers are eager to return to their routines, though some categories fell from November Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years 20% 40% Get together with friends 23% Stay in a hotel 33% 27% Dine at a restaurant or bar Get together with family 21% Attend an outdoor event Travel by airplane 19% Go out for family entertainment 18% Attend an indoor cultural event 11% Travel by train 11% Go to a shopping mall 0 Change since Nov (percentage point) -8 -10 1 N/A3 -17 -2 Top activities eager to get back to2 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices 92% Shop in-person for groceries, necessities 68% Shop in-person for non-necessities Most prevalent activities consumers are engaging in1 % of respondents who did activity within last 2 weeks 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities. 2 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19. 3 Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey. Remaining cautiousness N/A3 N/A3 N/A3
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 1 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. n=814 2 Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents. Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Income overindexed or underindexed2 Low <JP¥4M/year Medium JP¥4M–JP¥8M/year High >JP¥8M/year +1% -2% +1% -3% +5% -3% -3% -1% +6% -3% -3% +6% -5% -2% +8% -2% +3% -1% +1% -2% +1% +4% -2% -2% -1% +1% +1% +1% -1% 0% +1% +3% -3% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Attend an outdoor event (concert, sporting event, etc.) 29% Dine at a restaurant or bar 40% 29% Get together with friends Get together with family Stay in a hotel 27% 18% Travel by airplane 10% 18% Go out for family entertainment 17% 9% Attend an indoor cultural event (theater, movies, etc.) 16% 13% Travel more than 2 hours away from home via car Travel by train Go to a shopping mall Remaining cautiousness Compared to low-income groups, high-income consumers are more eager to return to family gatherings, traveling, and dining Overindexed (>+5%) Underindexed (<-5%)
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Japanese consumers will prioritize shopping, dining, and using public transportation once COVID-19 subsides Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks1 % of respondents 47% 13% 13% 5% 3% 33% 28% 17% 15% Go to a hair or nail salon Attend an outdoor event Get together with family Attend an indoor cultural event Dine at a restaurant or bar Visit a crowded outdoor public place Go out for family entertainment Go to the gym or fitness studio Get together with friends 74% 92% 68% 49% 52% 49% 32% 30% 27% 12% 9% Work outside my home Rent a short-term home Go to a shopping mall Shop for groceries/necessities Use public transportation Shop for non-necessities Travel by train Use ride-sharing service Travel more than 2 hrs by car Stay in a hotel Travel by airplane Net intent post- COVID-192 Net intent post- COVID-192 +18 +61 +66 +54 +49 +5 +2 +43 +50 +55 +36 Work Shopping Transport/ Travel Social Personal care Entertain -ment +35 +38 +36 +54 +26 +38 +10 +46 +43 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19 2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same, and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all. The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19. Remaining cautiousness Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years 0 to 20 Below 0 20 to 50 Net intent2 Above 50
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Consumers report an increase in net intent to spend on in-home categories since November, but not on out-of-home categories Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents Net intent2 Net intent2 +9 +12 +14 +8 +5 -8 +4 -2 -3 +10 -13 +2 +1 +3 +9 -21 N/A3 N/A3 Change since Nov 2020 Change since Nov 2020 N/A3 +13 +11 +9 +8 +3 -11 +15 +5 +3 -9 0 -11 0 -5 -2 13 31 47 23 29 45 32 16 13 23 8 13 9 25 7 8 7 7 16 Home improvement & garden 4 Groceries 11 5 10 11 Food takeout & delivery Alcoholic beverages Quick-service restaurant 4 Restaurant Apparel 3 1 Footwear 0 Tobacco products Jewelry Sports & outdoors 0 Toys & baby Accessories 5 Household supplies 4 4 Personal-care products 12 Skin care & makeup 5 Home & furniture 11 Kitchen & dining 4 Increase Decrease Stay the same -45 9 -8 2 -8 -1 14 -2 -24 -43 -22 -26 -32 0 -8 -16 5 -3 7 9 14 39 17 23 24 16 16 19 61 71 58 59 9 24 9 7 6 3 Gasoline 2 Entertainment at home Pet food & supplies 4 Vitamins & OTC medicine Books/magazines/newspapers 5 Consumer electronics 6 Travel by car Pet-care services Out-of-home entertainment 4 0 5 Fitness & wellness 2 Personal-care services Vehicles Short-term home rentals 12 Cruises Adventures & tours Hotel/resort stays 0 International flights 4 4 Domestic flights 1 19 -3 -10 -33 -17 -17 -21 -8 -7 -57 -71 -54 -55 2 -9 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3 Data not available or sample size <30. N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 Remaining cautiousness
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 Net intent2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014. 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28– 3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years Essential spending has been stable since May 2021; fitness and consumer electronics see a positive trend while apparel staggers 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 10 -50 0 -20 -40 20 -30 -10 Mar 29 Apr 5 May 24 Jun 22 Sep 28 Nov 15 Feb 27 Groceries Apparel Household supplies Skin care & makeup Fitness & wellness Consumer electronics Personal-care products Remaining cautiousness
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Only 28 percent of Japanese consumers intend to splurge in 2021; high-income households and younger consumers have strongest intent Expected leisure spend in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves ~28% Plan to splurge or treat themselves Vaccinated 28% 28% Interested Cautious Unlikely 29% 20% 45% Gen Z Baby boomers Millennials Gen X 33% 27% Medium (JP¥4M–JP¥8M) Low (<JP¥4M) 33% High (>JP¥8M) 23% 30% Willingness to splurge isn’t correlated to vaccination adoption ~45% of Gen Z ~33% of wealthier households 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Low sample size <30. 3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years By generation3 By income By vaccination adoption N/A2 Remaining cautiousness
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 High-income Gen Z consumers intend to splurge the most; lower-income groups are more conservative across age groups Expected leisure spend in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves ~28% Plan to splurge or treat themselves >70% <30% 50–70% 30–50% Gen Z Millennials Gen X Generation2 Mid (JP¥4M–JP¥8M/year) 33% 35% 17% 29% 40% 30% 36% 46% 58% Low (<JP¥4/year) High (> JP¥8M/year) Baby Boomers Household income 13% 17% 27% 1 Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Remaining cautiousness
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 A spike in consumer spending on travel, dining, and apparel is expected, but will be spread out over time Expected leisure categories on which people plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves 49 39 38 21 18 16 8 7 6 Household essentials Travel, lodging, & vacation Restaurants, dining out, bars Apparel, shoes & accessories Beauty & personal care Out-of-home entertainment Items for your home Fitness, sports, & outdoors Electronics Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category 62 55 40 39 43 62 46 52 47 16 32 44 46 35 19 29 38 29 20 11 15 15 18 19 25 5 18 4 5 6 1 1 2 Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading I am vaccinated Anytime Family is vaccinated 1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intent to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. N=286 2 Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Remaining cautiousness
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 More than 70 percent of splurge spend will come from money that consumers have on hand 1 Q: For your future splurge on previously selected items, how do you intend to pay? Please select the answer that best represents your situation. N=286 2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Financing source of splurge spend1, % average of respondents who plan to spend, by generation Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers From available budget 73% 64% 74% 76% 72% By reducing spend elsewhere 34% 26% 24% 11% 24% From savings 20% 26% 19% 29% 24% 2% 1% 7% 0% By using credit or a buy now, pay later option 3% Average by financing source Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Generation2 >50% <20% 36–50% 21–35% Remaining cautiousness
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Likely-to-vaccinate people hold back more on returning to normal routines than those cautious or unlikely to get vaccinated Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Expectations on routines returning to normal1 % of respondents Expectations on finances returning to normal2 % of respondents 52 50 42 14 15 11 66 65 52 3 6 13 30 24 21 34 Vaccinated 31 Interested Cautious Unlikely 33 Already back to normal By June 2021 21% of Gen Z and millennials vs 9% of Gen X and those above 14% in urban and suburban vs 33% in rural 1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 3 Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received both doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “Very likely” (6) and “Likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “Somewhat likely” (4) or “Somewhat unlikely” (3) are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “Unlikely” (2) or “Very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.” “Vaccinated” has small sample size <30. N/A3 N/A3 Remaining cautiousness
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Consumer intent to spend more after COVID-19 subsides across categories, especially on out-of-home discretionary categories Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years 1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending; N/A = data not available or sample size < 30. -15 to 0 Below -15 Above +1 Below 0 Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15 Net intent2 Pet food & supplies Vitamins & OTC medicine Domestic flights Hotel/resort stays Adventures & tours Out-of-home entertainment Pet-care services Fitness & wellness Personal-care services Gasoline Short-term home rentals Cruises Travel by car International flights Books/magazines/newspapers Consumer electronics Entertainment at home Vehicles Post-COVID-19 1 1 54 51 60 42 -5 24 11 27 N/A2 N/A2 34 47 0 0 0 14 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to post COVID-191 % of respondents Net intent2 Groceries Toys & baby goods Tobacco products Food takeout & delivery Alcoholic beverages Accessories Household supplies Apparel Quick-service restaurant Footwear Home improvement & gardening Restaurant Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Sports & outdoors Home & furniture Jewelry Kitchen & dining Post-COVID-19 5 5 -3 -15 2 4 2 11 18 6 6 47 2 7 14 1 -5 1 Next 2 weeks 9 -8 -1 14 -2 -32 2 -26 -24 -22 5 -43 0 -8 -16 -8 -45 -3 Evolution Next 2 weeks 1 2 -55 -54 -57 -33 -17 -17 -21 -8 N/A2 N/A2 -7 -71 -3 -10 19 -9 Evolution Remaining cautiousness
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started and how often1,2 % of respondents More than one-third of Japanese shoppers have tried a new shopping behavior and the majority of them intend to continue Continued loyalty disruption 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 14% 12% 9% 6% 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% Different retailer/store/website Private label/store brand New shopping method3 New digital shopping method Different brand 17% 1% 16% 12% 9% 7% Intent to continue4 97% 87% 90% 93% 87% 38% of consumers have tried a new shopping behavior Just once Sometimes Regularly >50% of millennials and Gen Z have tried a new shopping behavior 1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 62% consumers selected “none of these.” 2 Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. 4 Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 While value and convenience are top drivers for trying a new store, purpose is a key reason for one out of four shoppers 1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three. 37% 34% 3% 21% 15% 11% 7% 28% 15% 10% 4% 12% 10% 18% 3% 5% Offers good delivery/pickup options Better prices/promotions Better shipping/delivery costs Better value Less crowded / has shorter lines More easily accessible from my home Can get all the items I need from one place Products are in stock Shares my values Supporting local businesses Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options 1% The company treats its employees well Wanted variety/change from my normal routine Wanted to treat myself Better quality Offers natural/organic options Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Personal choice Value 59% Convenience 45% Purpose-driven 26% Availability 28% Quality/organic 19% 21% Health/hygiene 5% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three x% Net % of respondents per category Continued loyalty disruption
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 After value, novelty and brand purpose are the top drivers for switching brands 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Over-arching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group. 33% 31% 9% 3% 32% 21% 24% 9% 4% 3% 29% 8% 20% 15% 17% 16% 13% Larger package sizes Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before Better shipping/delivery costs Is more sustainable / better for the environment Shares my values Better prices/promotions Is available where I’m shopping Wanted to treat myself Better value Wanted to try a new brand I found Supporting local businesses The company treats its employees well Better quality Is natural/organic Wanted variety/change from my normal routine Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Products are in stock Novelty Personal choice Purpose-driven Quality/organic Convenience Health/hygiene Availability 16% Value 57% 33% 32% 41% 13% 17% 30% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three x% Net % of respondents per category Continued loyalty disruption
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Consumers’ use of online channel during, and after COVID-191,2,3 % of respondents 1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? Includes respondents who chose “some online,” “most online,” and “all online.” 2 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select “yes” or “no” for each category. Includes respondents who selected “Yes” for the category. 3 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? : “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online;” and “buy more online.” 4 Number indicates respondents who chose at least one category that they purchase online. 5 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. Most consumers intend to continue online purchasing in the future, across categories Rooting of new digital habits Purchase online after COVID-19 Net intent5 after COVID-19 37 47 28 30 16 13 24 48 45 48 33 44 Groceries / food for home Apparel Household supplies Alcoholic beverages Restaurant Personal-care products Personal-care services Skin care & makeup Food takeout Books/magazines/newspapers Footwear Vitamins and OTC medecine 80 50 87 74 73 80 54 53 75 82 Since COVID-19 began 94% 90% 10% 13% 87% 10% 13% 90% 87% 77% 23% 77% 23% 87% 13% 91% 9% 75% 25% 6% 89% 11% 92% 8% Decrease or stop ​Increase or stay the same 78 85 86% currently purchasing online4 96% intend to continue purchasing online post-COVID-194 % of online purchase during COVID-19 for most purchased categories Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Above 50 0 to 20 Below 0 20 to 50 Net intent5
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Certain categories show stronger online intent post-pandemic, such as toys and baby goods; apparel shows higher intent to return to offline Rooting of new digital habits 1 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “yes” for the category and currently buying the category. 2 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; “buy more online.” 3 Net intent is calculated among respondents currently buying online by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 4 Low sample size (<30). Consumers’ use of online channel during1 and after2 COVID-19 % of respondents buying this category 37% 13% 45% 24% 16% 13% 33% 47% 18% 39% 61% 28% 30% 48% 36% 41% 28% 29% Apparel Quick-service restaurant Tobacco products Groceries Food takeout & delivery Restaurant Alcoholic beverages Footwear Jewelry Accessories Toys & baby Household supplies Home improvement & gardening Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Home & furniture Sports & outdoors Kitchen & dining 47% 44% 79% 48% 51% 32% 15% 17% 37% 16% 40% 38% Pet-care services Pet food & supplies Consumer electronics Vitamins & OTC medicine 11% Entertainment out of home Entertainment at home Books/magazines/newspaperss Fitness & wellness Cruises Personal-care services Hotel/resort stays Short-term home rentals 12% Travel by car Adventures & tours International flights Domestic flights Net intent3 post-COVID-19 89 90 85 87 80 89 71 71 75 74 49 N/A4 67 82 N/A4 71 Since COVID-19 began Net intent3 post-COVID-19 73 72 69 50 75 54 80 53 74 14 78 83 80 82 74 81 83 80 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years N/A4 N/A4 Above 50 0 to 20 Below 0 20 to 50 Net intent3
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23 44 70 64 58 12 75 74 20 22 18 14 72 16 76 26 46 80 24 28 45 30 78 32 80 34 36 85 50 38 40 90 42 48 50 95 52 54 56 60 62 66 68 Sports equipment Household supplies Alcoholic beverages Kitchen & dining Tobacco products Footwear Home improvement & gardening Toys & baby Groceries Accessories Apparel Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Home & furniture Pet food & supplies Entertainment at home Vitamins & OTC Food takeout Electronics Fitness & wellness Books/magazines/newspapers Intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191 Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level 1. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category. Note: Thresholds of categories are defined by the terciles. The 1st tercile of Intent occurs at 30%, and the 2nd occurs at 51%. Online grocery buying will continue to grow but many home categories will mostly go back to in-person buying in store Penetration since COVID-19 2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Greater online presence Less-accelerated online shift Sustained shift to online Rooting of new digital habits
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents currently using/doing 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Small sample size (n < 30). 4% 3% 7% 12% 2% 4% 2% 2% 8% 2% 8% 5% 9% 14% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 1% 5% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% Restaurant delivery 1% Buy online for in-store pickup 1% Grocery delivery 1% Meal-kit delivery 1% Pay more for two-hour delivery Pay more for same-day delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru In-store self-checkout Restaurant curbside pickup 1% Store curbside pickup Used a new store/restaurant app Used deal-finding plug-ins Purchased pre-owned products 1% 1% Purchased directly from social media Intent to continue,2 % 45% 74% 48% 63% 94% 57% 81% 66% 67% 70% 60%3 77% N/A3 N/A3 In-store self-checkout and buying online for in-store pickup show stronger intent to continue post-pandemic Rooting of new digital habits Just started using Using more Using same/less Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years N/A3 N/A3
  25. 25. McKinsey & Company 25 60 0 75 55 10 30 0 50 20 45 65 70 40 80 95 85 90 Used deal-finding plug-ins Store curbside pickup Restaurant curbside pickup Meal-kit delivery Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru In-store self-checkout Buy online for in-store pickup Used a new store/restaurant app Purchased pre-owned products Intent to use after COVID-191 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since Coronavirus started", "Using more since Coronavirus started", "Using less since Coronavirus started" or "Using about the same since Coronavirus started". Possible answers not included: "Not Using" 3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 6%, Intent to use median = 67%. Restaurant apps and in-store pickup are new habits acquired during the crisis which are most likely to stick Rooting of new digital habits Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years User growth3: 0-19% User growth: 20-39% User growth: 40-59% User growth: 60%+ Penetration since COVID-19 2 Big surge during COVID-19, but not enough penetration or intent to fully stick No real shift since COVID-19 New behaviors spurred by COVID-19 Popular & enduring
  26. 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Omnichannel shopping behaviors such as grocery delivery or online purchase with store pickup are likely here to stay or accelerate Rooting of new digital habits Intent to use after COVID-191 % of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 Low Medium-high User growth since COVID-19 2 Medium-high Low 3 Works for now Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Status quo/ plateauing Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Status quo/plateauing Data not available Sep Nov Feb Meal-kit delivery N/A4 Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Restaurant curbside pickup Store curbside pickup (mostly grocery) Used a new store/restaurant app Buy online for in-store pickup In-store self-checkout Used deal-finding plug-ins Purchased pre-owned products online 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same or using less). 3 Assume threshold for user growth is 39% and intent to use post-COVID-19 is 62% 4 Data not available” or small sample size <30. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years
  27. 27. McKinsey & Company 27 At-home activities like streaming and cooking have grown and are likely to stay, with videoconferencing for work growing less 10% 1% 1% 10% 4% 2% 2% 18% 7% 11% 6% 1% 1% 1% 7% 2% 2% 3% 15% 5% 5% 9% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Online fitness Telemedicine: mental Wellness app Video chat: personal Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Telemedicine: physical Digital exercise machine Social media Watching e-sports Playing online games TikTok Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care/grooming at home Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents currently using/doing Intent to continue2 % 85% 72% 56% 80% 52% 82%3 67%3 80%3 67%3 80% 82% 88% N/A3 55% 61% 45% 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Low sample size (n = < 30). Rooting of new digital habits Just started using Using same/less Using more Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years N/A
  28. 28. McKinsey & Company 28 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since Coronavirus started", "Using more since Coronavirus started", "Using less since Coronavirus started" or "Using about the same since Coronavirus started". Possible answers not included: "Not Using" 3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 6%, Intent to use median = 67%. Digital habits adopted during the crisis such as professional videoconferencing and personal learning are likely to remain Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Rooting of new digital habits Intent to use after COVID-191 - Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 0 52 45 47 62 46 57 48 91 12 86 33 49 50 65 51 64 53 85 54 55 94 89 69 56 18 58 83 59 60 61 93 63 66 67 68 70 71 92 24 78 72 82 73 74 75 76 80 77 79 81 84 87 88 15 90 0 3 6 9 21 27 30 36 Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Video chat: personal Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Playing online games TikTok Watching e-sports Cooked regularly Personal care / grooming at home Used social media Niche behaviors but growing fast with very loyal consumers who want to continue using it post-COVID-19 Big surge during COVID-19, but not enough penetration or intent to fully stick No real shift since COVID-19 Niche and loyal New behaviors spurred by COVID-19 Universally popular Penetration since COVID-19 2 User growth3: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+
  29. 29. McKinsey & Company 29 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). 3 Not included or insufficient sample (n = < 30). Intent to use after COVID-191 % of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity once pandemic subsides Low Medium-high User growth since COVID-19 2 Medium-high Low Works for now Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Status quo/ plateauing Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Status quo/plateauing Data not available September November February Online fitness N/A3 Digital exercise machine N/A3 N/A3 Wellness app N/A3 Online streaming TikTok Used social media Cooked regularly Videoconferencing: professional Video chat: personal Telemedicine: physical N/A3 Telemedicine: mental N/A3 Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Watching e-sports Playing online games Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years Rooting of new digital habits Most digital habits are likely to stick with streaming, professional videoconferencing, and personal remote learning gaining traction
  30. 30. McKinsey & Company 30 Nearly one-third of consumers have made important life changes, including 12 percent who have worked more from home Continued flexible work style 1 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? (69% of respondents selected “None of these”). Details next 2% Permanently moved to the suburbs 1% Bought a car Got a new pet at home (e.g., dog, cat) Permanently moved to a new city 5% 1% Moved into a smaller home Worked more from home Moved into a bigger home 2% Decided to change jobs 1% Went back to school Permanently moved to the countryside Permanently moved in with family Set up a specific work from home space Set up a gym at home Renovated/remodeled my home Reassessed my investment portfolio 12% Sold a property Bought a property 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 6% 2% Pet adoption 2% Work/study change 15% House move 4% Home renovation 7% Investments/ Divestments 13% Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191 % of respondents Of which 24% have made home renovations Of which 42% are millennials vs sample of 31% Of which 46% have income >¥JP8M vs sample of 30% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
  31. 31. McKinsey & Company 31 Used a new store/restaurant app4 Videoconferencing Online streaming Cooked regularly for myself/my family In-store self-checkout 73 Restaurant delivery 76 82 90 83 42 7% 9% 44% 40% Most consumers will continue to work from home the same or more post-COVID-19, with digital services use remaining high Continued flexible work style 60% will continue to work from home the same or more post-COVID-19 Use of digital services2 % respondents who worked more from home during the crisis Work from home after COVID-19 as compared to during COVID-191 % respondents who worked more from home during the crisis Work outside home more Work only from home Work from home the same Work from home more 49 10 1 1 -6 -9 Diff. with those who did not, percentage point3 1 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Asked of respondents who selected “Work more from home" in the Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 2 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Respondents who selected “Worked more from home.“ Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Respondents who selected: “I will keep doing what I am doing now“ or “I will increase this.“ 3 Difference between respondents who selected “Worked more from home“ and those that didn’t. 4 Low sample base (n<30). Diff. Above +9 Diff.: 5 to 9 Diff.: Below 0 Diff.: 0 to 4 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Plan to continue or increase usage
  32. 32. McKinsey & Company 32 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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