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McKinsey & Company 1
We have seen five significant new consumer behaviors from the
impact of COVID-19, some of which will have a lasting impact
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan‘s general population 18+ years
85%
of consumers are
not yet resuming
“normal” out-of-
home activities
1. Remaining
cautiousness
38%
of consumers have
changed stores,
brands, or the way
they shop
3. Continued
loyalty disruption
96%
of consumers intend
to continue
purchasing online
after COVID-19
(from those who
currently do)
4. Rooting of new
digital habits
60%
of consumers expect
to work from home
the same or more
after COVID-19
5. Continued
flexible work
style
2. Spend surge
by wealthier,
younger people
58%
of high-income Gen Z
consumers surveyed
intend to splurge after
COVID-19
McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
10 14 14 18 17
32
21
31
25
37
43
45 46
53 59
50
62
52
71
61
47 41 39
30 24 18 17 17
2
4
20
67
12
Mixed The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression/
fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
Japan continues to be the least optimistic country among
researched countries even with a slight increase since November
Remaining cautiousness
1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)
Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
US
2/18–22
India
2/20–3/3
China
2/20–3/8
Mexico
2/20–3/2
Brazil
2/20–3/1
Germany
2/23–27
UK
2/23–27
Spain
2/23–27
Italy
2/23–27
France
2/23–27
Japan
2/24–27
Change in optimistic vs Nov
survey, percentage point
0
+9 +9 +6 +13 +1 +7 +4 +3
+5 +3
McKinsey & Company 3
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014; 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020,
n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600; 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years
Japan
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19
will have lasting impact
on the economy and
show regression / fall into
lengthy recession
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Optimism regarding Japan’s economic recovery has improved
steadily since summer, with a larger uplift since November
1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)?
Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Remaining cautiousness
41%
50%
43% 44% 42%
35% 31% 33%
20%
53%
45%
51% 52% 53%
60%
62% 60%
67%
6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7%
12%
Nov 9–15
Jun 19–22 Sep 22–28
Mar 28–29 Apr 10–12
Apr 3–5
4%
Apr 17–19 May 22–24 Feb 24–27
McKinsey & Company 4
Household income1
% of respondents
Household spending1
% of respondents
Household savings1
% of respondents
Outlook on income shows little change since late 2020 but there is a
slight increase in anticipated spending and savings
Increased slightly/a lot
Reduced slightly/a lot About the same
72%
22%
2%
71%
26%
75%
Past 2 weeks
2%
Past 2 weeks
3%
26%
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
71%
8%
22% 27%
Past 2 weeks
8%
65%
11%
65%
24%
Past 2 weeks
14%
Past 2 weeks
68%
18%
13%
Past 2 weeks
68%
19%
17%
64%
19%
Past 2 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014; 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general
population 18+ years
Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27
1 Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending, and amount of income put away as savings over the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Remaining cautiousness
Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27 Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27
McKinsey & Company 5
Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1
% of respondents
Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities has dropped in
connection with a new round of lockdowns
15
29
27
19
Feb 27
Nov 15
Sep 28
Jun 22
Overall
Cautious
Vaccinated
24%
Interested Unlikely
10%
17%
~24%
of people citing
preference to not be
vaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities
~23%
of Gen Z are doing
out-of-home activities
By
generation2
By income
By
vaccination
adoption
interest
~16%
of less wealthy
households are doing
out-of-home activities
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
3. Low sample size <30.
Remaining cautiousness
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; sampled and
weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years
N/A3
23%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers
10%
18% 16%
High
(>JP¥8M)
Medium
(JP¥4M–JP¥8M)
Low
(<JP¥4M)
16% 14% 15%
McKinsey & Company 6
Consumers will return to out-of-home activities once1…
% of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging
Most Japanese are waiting for lifted restrictions and wider vaccine
rollout before reengaging fully with out-of-home activities
11
34
27
28
Government
lifts restrictions
Government lifts
restrictions +
other requirements
Vaccination
coverage
COVID-19 no
longer spreading
85%
of people are not
currently engaging
in “normal”
out-of-home
activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Vaccination coverage
Government lifts restrictions and…
1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important.
Remaining cautiousness
9%
Stores, restaurants, and other
indoor places start taking safety
measures
11%
Medical authorities deem safe
14%
I see other people returning
18%
vaccine is widely distributed
8%
I have been vaccinated
1%
Family member(s) vaccinated
McKinsey & Company 7
As the pandemic drags on, Japanese consumers are eager to return
to their routines, though some categories fell from November
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
20%
40%
Get together with friends
23%
Stay in a hotel 33%
27%
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Get together with family
21%
Attend an outdoor event
Travel by airplane
19%
Go out for family entertainment
18%
Attend an indoor cultural event
11%
Travel by train
11%
Go to a shopping mall
0
Change since Nov
(percentage point)
-8
-10
1
N/A3
-17
-2
Top activities eager to get back to2
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices
92%
Shop in-person for
groceries,
necessities
68%
Shop in-person for
non-necessities
Most prevalent activities
consumers are engaging in1
% of respondents who did activity
within last 2 weeks
1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities.
2 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at
least once per year prior to COVID-19.
3 Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey.
Remaining cautiousness
N/A3
N/A3
N/A3
McKinsey & Company 8
1 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. n=814
2 Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents.
Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Income overindexed or underindexed2
Low
<JP¥4M/year
Medium
JP¥4M–JP¥8M/year
High
>JP¥8M/year
+1% -2% +1%
-3% +5% -3%
-3% -1% +6%
-3% -3% +6%
-5% -2% +8%
-2% +3% -1%
+1% -2% +1%
+4% -2% -2%
-1% +1% +1%
+1% -1% 0%
+1% +3% -3%
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Attend an outdoor event (concert, sporting event, etc.)
29%
Dine at a restaurant or bar
40%
29%
Get together with friends
Get together with family
Stay in a hotel
27%
18%
Travel by airplane
10%
18%
Go out for family entertainment
17%
9%
Attend an indoor cultural event (theater, movies, etc.) 16%
13%
Travel more than 2 hours away from home via car
Travel by train
Go to a shopping mall
Remaining cautiousness
Compared to low-income groups, high-income consumers are more
eager to return to family gatherings, traveling, and dining
Overindexed (>+5%) Underindexed (<-5%)
McKinsey & Company 9
Japanese consumers will prioritize shopping, dining, and using
public transportation once COVID-19 subsides
Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks1
% of respondents
47%
13%
13%
5%
3%
33%
28%
17%
15%
Go to a hair or nail salon
Attend an outdoor event
Get together with family
Attend an indoor cultural event
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Go out for family entertainment
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with friends
74%
92%
68%
49%
52%
49%
32%
30%
27%
12%
9%
Work outside my home
Rent a short-term home
Go to a shopping mall
Shop for groceries/necessities
Use public transportation
Shop for non-necessities
Travel by train
Use ride-sharing service
Travel more than 2 hrs by car
Stay in a hotel
Travel by airplane
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
+18
+61
+66
+54
+49
+5
+2
+43
+50
+55
+36
Work
Shopping
Transport/
Travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain
-ment
+35
+38
+36
+54
+26
+38
+10
+46
+43
1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19
2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began?
Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from
adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same, and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all. The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at
least once per year prior to COVID-19.
Remaining cautiousness
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
0 to 20
Below 0 20 to 50
Net intent2
Above 50
McKinsey & Company 10
Consumers report an increase in net intent to spend on in-home
categories since November, but not on out-of-home categories
Net intent: Above +1
Net intent: -15 to 0
Net intent: Below -15
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1
% of respondents Net
intent2
Net
intent2
+9
+12
+14
+8
+5
-8
+4
-2
-3
+10
-13
+2
+1
+3
+9
-21
N/A3
N/A3
Change since
Nov 2020
Change since
Nov 2020
N/A3
+13
+11
+9
+8
+3
-11
+15
+5
+3
-9
0
-11
0
-5
-2
13
31
47
23
29
45
32
16
13
23
8
13
9
25
7
8
7
7
16
Home improvement & garden
4
Groceries
11
5
10
11
Food takeout & delivery
Alcoholic beverages
Quick-service restaurant
4
Restaurant
Apparel 3
1
Footwear
0
Tobacco products
Jewelry
Sports & outdoors
0
Toys & baby
Accessories
5
Household supplies
4
4
Personal-care products
12
Skin care & makeup
5
Home & furniture
11
Kitchen & dining
4
Increase
Decrease
Stay the same
-45
9
-8
2
-8
-1
14
-2
-24
-43
-22
-26
-32
0
-8
-16
5
-3
7
9
14
39
17
23
24
16
16
19
61
71
58
59
9
24
9
7
6
3
Gasoline
2
Entertainment at home
Pet food & supplies
4
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Books/magazines/newspapers
5
Consumer electronics
6
Travel by car
Pet-care services
Out-of-home entertainment
4
0
5
Fitness & wellness
2
Personal-care services
Vehicles
Short-term home rentals
12
Cruises
Adventures & tours
Hotel/resort stays
0
International flights
4
4
Domestic flights
1
19
-3
-10
-33
-17
-17
-21
-8
-7
-57
-71
-54
-55
2
-9
1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3 Data not available or sample size <30.
N/A3
N/A3 N/A3
N/A3
N/A3
N/A3
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 11
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1
Net intent2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014. 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–
3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years
Essential spending has been stable since May 2021; fitness and
consumer electronics see a positive trend while apparel staggers
1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
10
-50
0
-20
-40
20
-30
-10
Mar
29
Apr
5
May
24
Jun
22
Sep
28
Nov
15
Feb
27
Groceries
Apparel
Household supplies
Skin care & makeup
Fitness & wellness
Consumer electronics
Personal-care products
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 12
Only 28 percent of Japanese consumers intend to splurge in 2021;
high-income households and younger consumers have strongest intent
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
~28%
Plan to splurge or treat
themselves
Vaccinated
28%
28%
Interested Cautious Unlikely
29%
20%
45%
Gen Z Baby boomers
Millennials Gen X
33%
27%
Medium
(JP¥4M–JP¥8M)
Low
(<JP¥4M)
33%
High
(>JP¥8M)
23%
30%
Willingness to
splurge isn’t
correlated to
vaccination adoption
~45%
of Gen Z
~33%
of wealthier
households
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Low sample size <30.
3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
By
generation3
By income
By
vaccination
adoption
N/A2
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 13
High-income Gen Z consumers intend to splurge the most;
lower-income groups are more conservative across age groups
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
~28%
Plan to splurge or treat
themselves
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–50%
Gen Z
Millennials
Gen X
Generation2
Mid
(JP¥4M–JP¥8M/year)
33%
35%
17%
29%
40%
30%
36%
46% 58%
Low
(<JP¥4/year)
High
(> JP¥8M/year)
Baby Boomers
Household income
13% 17% 27%
1 Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 14
A spike in consumer spending on travel, dining, and apparel is
expected, but will be spread out over time
Expected leisure categories on which people
plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
49
39
38
21
18
16
8
7
6
Household essentials
Travel, lodging, & vacation
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Apparel, shoes & accessories
Beauty & personal care
Out-of-home entertainment
Items for your home
Fitness, sports, & outdoors
Electronics
Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category
62
55
40
39
43
62
46
52
47
16
32
44
46
35
19
29
38
29
20
11
15
15
18
19
25
5
18
4
5
6
1
1
2
Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading I am vaccinated
Anytime Family is vaccinated
1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intent to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. N=286
2 Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 15
More than 70 percent of splurge spend will come from money that
consumers have on hand
1 Q: For your future splurge on previously selected items, how do you intend to pay? Please select the answer that best represents your situation. N=286
2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
Financing source of splurge spend1,
% average of respondents who plan to spend, by generation
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers
From available budget
73% 64% 74% 76% 72%
By reducing spend
elsewhere 34% 26% 24% 11% 24%
From savings
20% 26% 19% 29% 24%
2% 1% 7% 0%
By using credit or a buy now,
pay later option 3%
Average by
financing source
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Generation2
>50%
<20% 36–50%
21–35%
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 16
Likely-to-vaccinate people hold back more on returning to normal
routines than those cautious or unlikely to get vaccinated
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Expectations on routines returning to normal1
% of respondents
Expectations on finances returning to normal2
% of respondents
52
50
42
14
15
11
66
65
52
3
6
13
30
24
21 34
Vaccinated
31
Interested
Cautious
Unlikely
33
Already back to normal By June 2021
21% of Gen Z and millennials vs 9% of Gen X and those above
14% in urban and suburban vs 33% in rural
1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3 Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received both
doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “Very likely” (6) and “Likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “Somewhat likely” (4) or “Somewhat unlikely” (3)
are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “Unlikely” (2) or “Very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.” “Vaccinated” has small sample size <30.
N/A3 N/A3
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 17
Consumer intent to spend more after COVID-19 subsides across
categories, especially on out-of-home discretionary categories
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend
more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending; N/A = data not available or sample size < 30.
-15 to 0 Below -15
Above +1 Below 0
Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15
Net intent2
Pet food & supplies
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Domestic flights
Hotel/resort stays
Adventures & tours
Out-of-home entertainment
Pet-care services
Fitness & wellness
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Short-term home rentals
Cruises
Travel by car
International flights
Books/magazines/newspapers
Consumer electronics
Entertainment at home
Vehicles
Post-COVID-19
1
1
54
51
60
42
-5
24
11
27
N/A2
N/A2
34
47
0
0
0
14
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to post COVID-191
% of respondents
Net intent2
Groceries
Toys & baby goods
Tobacco products
Food takeout & delivery
Alcoholic beverages
Accessories
Household supplies
Apparel
Quick-service restaurant
Footwear
Home improvement & gardening
Restaurant
Personal-care products
Skin care & makeup
Sports & outdoors
Home & furniture
Jewelry
Kitchen & dining
Post-COVID-19
5
5
-3
-15
2
4
2
11
18
6
6
47
2
7
14
1
-5
1
Next 2 weeks
9
-8
-1
14
-2
-32
2
-26
-24
-22
5
-43
0
-8
-16
-8
-45
-3
Evolution Next 2 weeks
1
2
-55
-54
-57
-33
-17
-17
-21
-8
N/A2
N/A2
-7
-71
-3
-10
19
-9
Evolution
Remaining cautiousness
McKinsey & Company 18
Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started and how often1,2
% of respondents
More than one-third of Japanese shoppers have tried a new
shopping behavior and the majority of them intend to continue
Continued loyalty disruption
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
14%
12%
9%
6%
5%
1%
2%
2%
1%
Different retailer/store/website
Private label/store brand
New shopping method3
New digital shopping method
Different brand
17%
1%
16%
12%
9%
7%
Intent to
continue4
97%
87%
90%
93%
87%
38%
of consumers have
tried a new shopping
behavior
Just once Sometimes Regularly
>50%
of millennials and
Gen Z have tried a
new shopping
behavior
1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 62% consumers selected “none of these.”
2 Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before
coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
4 Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 19
While value and convenience are top drivers for trying a new store,
purpose is a key reason for one out of four shoppers
1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to
try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three.
37%
34%
3%
21%
15%
11%
7%
28%
15%
10%
4%
12%
10%
18%
3%
5%
Offers good delivery/pickup options
Better prices/promotions
Better shipping/delivery costs
Better value
Less crowded / has shorter lines
More easily accessible from my home
Can get all the items I need from one place
Products are in stock
Shares my values
Supporting local businesses
Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options
1%
The company treats its employees well
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Wanted to treat myself
Better quality
Offers natural/organic options
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
Personal choice
Value 59%
Convenience 45%
Purpose-driven 26%
Availability 28%
Quality/organic 19%
21%
Health/hygiene 5%
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general
population 18+ years
Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
x% Net % of respondents per category
Continued loyalty disruption
McKinsey & Company 20
After value, novelty and brand purpose are the top drivers for
switching brands
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes
different brand, new private label/store brand. Over-arching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group.
33%
31%
9%
3%
32%
21%
24%
9%
4%
3%
29%
8%
20%
15%
17%
16%
13%
Larger package sizes
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Better shipping/delivery costs
Is more sustainable / better for the environment
Shares my values
Better prices/promotions
Is available where I’m shopping
Wanted to treat myself
Better value
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Supporting local businesses
The company treats its employees well
Better quality
Is natural/organic
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
Products are in stock
Novelty
Personal choice
Purpose-driven
Quality/organic
Convenience
Health/hygiene
Availability 16%
Value 57%
33%
32%
41%
13%
17%
30%
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
x% Net % of respondents per category
Continued loyalty disruption
McKinsey & Company 21
Consumers’ use of online channel during, and after COVID-191,2,3
% of respondents
1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? Includes respondents who chose “some online,” “most online,” and “all online.”
2 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select “yes” or “no” for each category. Includes respondents who selected “Yes” for the category.
3 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? : “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online;” and “buy more online.”
4 Number indicates respondents who chose at least one category that they purchase online.
5 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
Most consumers intend to continue online purchasing in the future,
across categories
Rooting of new digital habits
Purchase online after COVID-19
Net intent5
after COVID-19
37
47
28
30
16
13
24
48
45
48
33
44
Groceries / food for home
Apparel
Household supplies
Alcoholic beverages
Restaurant
Personal-care products
Personal-care services
Skin care & makeup
Food takeout
Books/magazines/newspapers
Footwear
Vitamins and OTC medecine
80
50
87
74
73
80
54
53
75
82
Since COVID-19 began
94%
90%
10%
13% 87%
10%
13%
90%
87%
77%
23%
77%
23%
87%
13%
91%
9%
75%
25%
6%
89%
11%
92%
8%
Decrease or stop ​Increase or stay the same
78
85
86%
currently purchasing
online4
96%
intend to continue
purchasing online
post-COVID-194
% of online purchase during COVID-19
for most purchased categories
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Above 50
0 to 20
Below 0
20 to 50
Net intent5
McKinsey & Company 22
Certain categories show stronger online intent post-pandemic, such as
toys and baby goods; apparel shows higher intent to return to offline
Rooting of new digital habits
1 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “yes” for the category and currently buying the category.
2 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the
same amount online”; “buy more online.”
3 Net intent is calculated among respondents currently buying online by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
4 Low sample size (<30).
Consumers’ use of online channel during1 and after2 COVID-19
% of respondents buying this category
37%
13%
45%
24%
16%
13%
33%
47%
18%
39%
61%
28%
30%
48%
36%
41%
28%
29%
Apparel
Quick-service restaurant
Tobacco products
Groceries
Food takeout & delivery
Restaurant
Alcoholic beverages
Footwear
Jewelry
Accessories
Toys & baby
Household supplies
Home improvement & gardening
Personal-care products
Skin care & makeup
Home & furniture
Sports & outdoors
Kitchen & dining
47%
44%
79%
48%
51%
32%
15%
17%
37%
16%
40%
38%
Pet-care services
Pet food & supplies
Consumer electronics
Vitamins & OTC medicine
11%
Entertainment out of home
Entertainment at home
Books/magazines/newspaperss
Fitness & wellness
Cruises
Personal-care services
Hotel/resort stays
Short-term home rentals
12%
Travel by car
Adventures & tours
International flights
Domestic flights
Net intent3
post-COVID-19
89
90
85
87
80
89
71
71
75
74
49
N/A4
67
82
N/A4
71
Since COVID-19 began
Net intent3
post-COVID-19
73
72
69
50
75
54
80
53
74
14
78
83
80
82
74
81
83
80
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
N/A4
N/A4
Above 50
0 to 20
Below 0 20 to 50
Net intent3
McKinsey & Company 23
44 70
64
58
12
75
74
20 22
18
14 72
16 76
26 46 80
24 28
45
30 78
32
80
34 36
85
50
38 40
90
42 48 50
95
52 54 56 60 62 66 68
Sports equipment
Household supplies
Alcoholic beverages
Kitchen & dining
Tobacco products
Footwear
Home improvement & gardening
Toys & baby
Groceries
Accessories
Apparel
Personal-care products
Skin care & makeup
Home & furniture
Pet food & supplies
Entertainment at home
Vitamins & OTC
Food takeout
Electronics
Fitness & wellness
Books/magazines/newspapers
Intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level
1. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category.
Note: Thresholds of categories are defined by the terciles. The 1st tercile of Intent occurs at 30%, and the 2nd occurs at 51%.
Online grocery buying will continue to grow but many home
categories will mostly go back to in-person buying in store
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Greater online presence
Less-accelerated online shift Sustained shift to online
Rooting of new digital habits
McKinsey & Company 24
Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents currently using/doing
1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing
now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
3 Small sample size (n < 30).
4%
3%
7%
12%
2%
4%
2%
2%
8%
2%
8%
5%
9%
14%
4%
4%
4%
5%
3%
1%
5%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
Restaurant delivery
1%
Buy online for in-store pickup
1%
Grocery delivery
1%
Meal-kit delivery 1%
Pay more for two-hour delivery
Pay more for same-day delivery
Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru
In-store self-checkout
Restaurant curbside pickup
1%
Store curbside pickup
Used a new store/restaurant app
Used deal-finding plug-ins
Purchased pre-owned products
1%
1%
Purchased directly from social media
Intent to
continue,2 %
45%
74%
48%
63%
94%
57%
81%
66%
67%
70%
60%3
77%
N/A3
N/A3
In-store self-checkout and buying online for in-store pickup show
stronger intent to continue post-pandemic
Rooting of new digital habits
Just started using Using more Using same/less
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
N/A3
N/A3
McKinsey & Company 25
60
0
75
55
10
30
0 50
20
45 65 70
40
80 95
85 90
Used deal-finding plug-ins
Store curbside pickup
Restaurant curbside pickup
Meal-kit delivery
Restaurant delivery
Grocery delivery
Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru
In-store self-checkout
Buy online for in-store pickup
Used a new store/restaurant app
Purchased pre-owned products
Intent to use after COVID-191
Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since Coronavirus started", "Using more since Coronavirus started", "Using less since Coronavirus started" or "Using
about the same since Coronavirus started". Possible answers not included: "Not Using"
3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 6%, Intent to use median = 67%.
Restaurant apps and in-store pickup are new habits acquired
during the crisis which are most likely to stick
Rooting of new digital habits
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
User growth3: 0-19% User growth: 20-39% User growth: 40-59% User growth: 60%+
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
Big surge during
COVID-19, but
not enough
penetration or
intent to fully stick
No real shift
since COVID-19
New behaviors
spurred by COVID-19
Popular & enduring
McKinsey & Company 26
Omnichannel shopping behaviors such as grocery delivery or online
purchase with store pickup are likely here to stay or accelerate
Rooting of new digital habits
Intent to use after COVID-191
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after
COVID-19
Low Medium-high
User
growth
since
COVID-19
2
Medium-high
Low
3
Works for now Accelerated
shifts
Potentially here
to stay
Status quo/
plateauing
Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Status quo/plateauing
Data not available
Sep Nov Feb
Meal-kit delivery N/A4
Restaurant delivery
Grocery delivery
Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru
Restaurant curbside pickup
Store curbside pickup (mostly grocery)
Used a new store/restaurant app
Buy online for in-store pickup
In-store self-checkout
Used deal-finding plug-ins
Purchased pre-owned products online
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.”
2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same or using less).
3 Assume threshold for user growth is 39% and intent to use post-COVID-19 is 62%
4 Data not available” or small sample size <30.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s
general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 27
At-home activities like streaming and cooking have grown and are
likely to stay, with videoconferencing for work growing less
10%
1%
1%
10%
4%
2%
2%
18%
7%
11%
6%
1%
1%
1%
7%
2%
2%
3%
15%
5%
5%
9%
2%
1%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
Online fitness
Telemedicine: mental
Wellness app
Video chat: personal
Online streaming
Videoconferencing: professional
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
Telemedicine: physical
Digital exercise machine
Social media
Watching e-sports
Playing online games
TikTok
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Personal care/grooming at home
Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents currently using/doing Intent to
continue2 %
85%
72%
56%
80%
52%
82%3
67%3
80%3
67%3
80%
82%
88%
N/A3
55%
61%
45%
1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
3 Low sample size (n = < 30).
Rooting of new digital habits
Just started using Using same/less
Using more
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
N/A
McKinsey & Company 28
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since Coronavirus started", "Using more since Coronavirus started", "Using less since Coronavirus started" or "Using
about the same since Coronavirus started". Possible answers not included: "Not Using"
3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 6%, Intent to use median = 67%.
Digital habits adopted during the crisis such as professional
videoconferencing and personal learning are likely to remain
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general
population 18+ years
Rooting of new digital habits
Intent to use after COVID-191 - Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
0 52
45 47 62
46 57
48 91
12
86
33
49 50 65
51 64
53 85
54 55 94
89
69
56
18
58 83
59 60 61 93
63 66 67 68 70 71 92
24
78
72 82
73 74 75 76 80
77 79 81 84 87 88
15
90
0
3
6
9
21
27
30
36
Online streaming
Videoconferencing: professional
Video chat: personal
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
Playing online games
TikTok
Watching e-sports
Cooked regularly
Personal care / grooming at home
Used social media
Niche behaviors but
growing fast with very
loyal consumers who
want to continue using
it post-COVID-19
Big surge during
COVID-19, but not
enough penetration
or intent to fully stick
No real shift since
COVID-19
Niche and loyal
New behaviors
spurred by COVID-19
Universally popular
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
User growth3: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+
McKinsey & Company 29
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase
this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
3 Not included or insufficient sample (n = < 30).
Intent to use after COVID-191
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity once
pandemic subsides
Low Medium-high
User
growth
since
COVID-19
2
Medium-high
Low
Works for now Accelerated
shifts
Potentially here
to stay
Status quo/
plateauing
Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Status quo/plateauing
Data not available
September November February
Online fitness N/A3
Digital exercise machine N/A3 N/A3
Wellness app N/A3
Online streaming
TikTok
Used social media
Cooked regularly
Videoconferencing: professional
Video chat: personal
Telemedicine: physical N/A3
Telemedicine: mental N/A3
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
Watching e-sports
Playing online games
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s
general population 18+ years
Rooting of new digital habits
Most digital habits are likely to stick with streaming, professional
videoconferencing, and personal remote learning gaining traction
McKinsey & Company 30
Nearly one-third of consumers have made important life changes,
including 12 percent who have worked more from home
Continued flexible work style
1 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? (69% of respondents selected “None of these”).
Details next
2%
Permanently moved to the suburbs
1%
Bought a car
Got a new pet at home (e.g., dog, cat)
Permanently moved to a new city
5%
1%
Moved into a smaller home
Worked more from home
Moved into a bigger home
2%
Decided to change jobs
1%
Went back to school
Permanently moved to the countryside
Permanently moved in with family
Set up a specific work from home space
Set up a gym at home
Renovated/remodeled my home
Reassessed my investment portfolio
12%
Sold a property
Bought a property
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
3%
6%
2%
Pet adoption 2%
Work/study
change
15%
House move 4%
Home
renovation
7%
Investments/
Divestments
13%
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191
% of respondents
Of which
24%
have made home
renovations
Of which
42%
are millennials
vs sample of 31%
Of which
46%
have income >¥JP8M vs
sample of 30%
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 31
Used a new store/restaurant
app4
Videoconferencing
Online streaming
Cooked regularly for
myself/my family
In-store self-checkout
73
Restaurant delivery
76
82
90
83
42
7%
9%
44%
40%
Most consumers will continue to work from home the same or more
post-COVID-19, with digital services use remaining high
Continued flexible work style
60%
will continue to work
from home the
same or more
post-COVID-19
Use of digital services2
% respondents who worked more from home
during the crisis
Work from home after COVID-19 as compared to
during COVID-191
% respondents who worked more from home during the crisis
Work outside home more
Work only from home
Work from home the same
Work from home more
49
10
1
1
-6
-9
Diff. with those
who did not,
percentage point3
1 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Asked of respondents who selected “Work more from
home" in the Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Respondents who selected “Worked more from home.“ Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis
subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Respondents who selected: “I will keep doing what I am doing now“ or “I will increase this.“
3 Difference between respondents who selected “Worked more from home“ and those that didn’t.
4 Low sample base (n<30).
Diff. Above +9
Diff.: 5 to 9
Diff.: Below 0
Diff.: 0 to 4
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
Plan to continue or increase usage
McKinsey & Company 32
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These
materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do
not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information
has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and
subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no
representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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McKinsey Survey: Japanese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  • 1. McKinsey & Company 1 We have seen five significant new consumer behaviors from the impact of COVID-19, some of which will have a lasting impact Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan‘s general population 18+ years 85% of consumers are not yet resuming “normal” out-of- home activities 1. Remaining cautiousness 38% of consumers have changed stores, brands, or the way they shop 3. Continued loyalty disruption 96% of consumers intend to continue purchasing online after COVID-19 (from those who currently do) 4. Rooting of new digital habits 60% of consumers expect to work from home the same or more after COVID-19 5. Continued flexible work style 2. Spend surge by wealthier, younger people 58% of high-income Gen Z consumers surveyed intend to splurge after COVID-19
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey 10 14 14 18 17 32 21 31 25 37 43 45 46 53 59 50 62 52 71 61 47 41 39 30 24 18 17 17 2 4 20 67 12 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/ fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Japan continues to be the least optimistic country among researched countries even with a slight increase since November Remaining cautiousness 1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity) Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. US 2/18–22 India 2/20–3/3 China 2/20–3/8 Mexico 2/20–3/2 Brazil 2/20–3/1 Germany 2/23–27 UK 2/23–27 Spain 2/23–27 Italy 2/23–27 France 2/23–27 Japan 2/24–27 Change in optimistic vs Nov survey, percentage point 0 +9 +9 +6 +13 +1 +7 +4 +3 +5 +3
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014; 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/17–4/19/2020, n = 600; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 600; 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 600; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years Japan Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression / fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Optimism regarding Japan’s economic recovery has improved steadily since summer, with a larger uplift since November 1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Remaining cautiousness 41% 50% 43% 44% 42% 35% 31% 33% 20% 53% 45% 51% 52% 53% 60% 62% 60% 67% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 12% Nov 9–15 Jun 19–22 Sep 22–28 Mar 28–29 Apr 10–12 Apr 3–5 4% Apr 17–19 May 22–24 Feb 24–27
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Household income1 % of respondents Household spending1 % of respondents Household savings1 % of respondents Outlook on income shows little change since late 2020 but there is a slight increase in anticipated spending and savings Increased slightly/a lot Reduced slightly/a lot About the same 72% 22% 2% 71% 26% 75% Past 2 weeks 2% Past 2 weeks 3% 26% Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 71% 8% 22% 27% Past 2 weeks 8% 65% 11% 65% 24% Past 2 weeks 14% Past 2 weeks 68% 18% 13% Past 2 weeks 68% 19% 17% 64% 19% Past 2 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014; 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27 1 Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending, and amount of income put away as savings over the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Remaining cautiousness Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27 Sep 22–28 Nov 9–15 Feb 24–27
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1 % of respondents Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities has dropped in connection with a new round of lockdowns 15 29 27 19 Feb 27 Nov 15 Sep 28 Jun 22 Overall Cautious Vaccinated 24% Interested Unlikely 10% 17% ~24% of people citing preference to not be vaccinated are doing out-of-home activities ~23% of Gen Z are doing out-of-home activities By generation2 By income By vaccination adoption interest ~16% of less wealthy households are doing out-of-home activities 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. 2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. 3. Low sample size <30. Remaining cautiousness Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years N/A3 23% Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers 10% 18% 16% High (>JP¥8M) Medium (JP¥4M–JP¥8M) Low (<JP¥4M) 16% 14% 15%
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Consumers will return to out-of-home activities once1… % of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging Most Japanese are waiting for lifted restrictions and wider vaccine rollout before reengaging fully with out-of-home activities 11 34 27 28 Government lifts restrictions Government lifts restrictions + other requirements Vaccination coverage COVID-19 no longer spreading 85% of people are not currently engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Vaccination coverage Government lifts restrictions and… 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Remaining cautiousness 9% Stores, restaurants, and other indoor places start taking safety measures 11% Medical authorities deem safe 14% I see other people returning 18% vaccine is widely distributed 8% I have been vaccinated 1% Family member(s) vaccinated
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 As the pandemic drags on, Japanese consumers are eager to return to their routines, though some categories fell from November Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years 20% 40% Get together with friends 23% Stay in a hotel 33% 27% Dine at a restaurant or bar Get together with family 21% Attend an outdoor event Travel by airplane 19% Go out for family entertainment 18% Attend an indoor cultural event 11% Travel by train 11% Go to a shopping mall 0 Change since Nov (percentage point) -8 -10 1 N/A3 -17 -2 Top activities eager to get back to2 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices 92% Shop in-person for groceries, necessities 68% Shop in-person for non-necessities Most prevalent activities consumers are engaging in1 % of respondents who did activity within last 2 weeks 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities. 2 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19. 3 Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey. Remaining cautiousness N/A3 N/A3 N/A3
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 1 Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. n=814 2 Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents. Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Income overindexed or underindexed2 Low <JP¥4M/year Medium JP¥4M–JP¥8M/year High >JP¥8M/year +1% -2% +1% -3% +5% -3% -3% -1% +6% -3% -3% +6% -5% -2% +8% -2% +3% -1% +1% -2% +1% +4% -2% -2% -1% +1% +1% +1% -1% 0% +1% +3% -3% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Attend an outdoor event (concert, sporting event, etc.) 29% Dine at a restaurant or bar 40% 29% Get together with friends Get together with family Stay in a hotel 27% 18% Travel by airplane 10% 18% Go out for family entertainment 17% 9% Attend an indoor cultural event (theater, movies, etc.) 16% 13% Travel more than 2 hours away from home via car Travel by train Go to a shopping mall Remaining cautiousness Compared to low-income groups, high-income consumers are more eager to return to family gatherings, traveling, and dining Overindexed (>+5%) Underindexed (<-5%)
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Japanese consumers will prioritize shopping, dining, and using public transportation once COVID-19 subsides Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks1 % of respondents 47% 13% 13% 5% 3% 33% 28% 17% 15% Go to a hair or nail salon Attend an outdoor event Get together with family Attend an indoor cultural event Dine at a restaurant or bar Visit a crowded outdoor public place Go out for family entertainment Go to the gym or fitness studio Get together with friends 74% 92% 68% 49% 52% 49% 32% 30% 27% 12% 9% Work outside my home Rent a short-term home Go to a shopping mall Shop for groceries/necessities Use public transportation Shop for non-necessities Travel by train Use ride-sharing service Travel more than 2 hrs by car Stay in a hotel Travel by airplane Net intent post- COVID-192 Net intent post- COVID-192 +18 +61 +66 +54 +49 +5 +2 +43 +50 +55 +36 Work Shopping Transport/ Travel Social Personal care Entertain -ment +35 +38 +36 +54 +26 +38 +10 +46 +43 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19 2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same, and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all. The responder base is comprised only those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19. Remaining cautiousness Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years 0 to 20 Below 0 20 to 50 Net intent2 Above 50
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Consumers report an increase in net intent to spend on in-home categories since November, but not on out-of-home categories Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents Net intent2 Net intent2 +9 +12 +14 +8 +5 -8 +4 -2 -3 +10 -13 +2 +1 +3 +9 -21 N/A3 N/A3 Change since Nov 2020 Change since Nov 2020 N/A3 +13 +11 +9 +8 +3 -11 +15 +5 +3 -9 0 -11 0 -5 -2 13 31 47 23 29 45 32 16 13 23 8 13 9 25 7 8 7 7 16 Home improvement & garden 4 Groceries 11 5 10 11 Food takeout & delivery Alcoholic beverages Quick-service restaurant 4 Restaurant Apparel 3 1 Footwear 0 Tobacco products Jewelry Sports & outdoors 0 Toys & baby Accessories 5 Household supplies 4 4 Personal-care products 12 Skin care & makeup 5 Home & furniture 11 Kitchen & dining 4 Increase Decrease Stay the same -45 9 -8 2 -8 -1 14 -2 -24 -43 -22 -26 -32 0 -8 -16 5 -3 7 9 14 39 17 23 24 16 16 19 61 71 58 59 9 24 9 7 6 3 Gasoline 2 Entertainment at home Pet food & supplies 4 Vitamins & OTC medicine Books/magazines/newspapers 5 Consumer electronics 6 Travel by car Pet-care services Out-of-home entertainment 4 0 5 Fitness & wellness 2 Personal-care services Vehicles Short-term home rentals 12 Cruises Adventures & tours Hotel/resort stays 0 International flights 4 4 Domestic flights 1 19 -3 -10 -33 -17 -17 -21 -8 -7 -57 -71 -54 -55 2 -9 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3 Data not available or sample size <30. N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 N/A3 Remaining cautiousness
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 Net intent2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014. 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/22/2020, n = 664; 5/22–5/24/2020, n = 600; 4/3–4/5/2020, n = 600; 3/28– 3/29/2020, n = 600, sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years Essential spending has been stable since May 2021; fitness and consumer electronics see a positive trend while apparel staggers 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 10 -50 0 -20 -40 20 -30 -10 Mar 29 Apr 5 May 24 Jun 22 Sep 28 Nov 15 Feb 27 Groceries Apparel Household supplies Skin care & makeup Fitness & wellness Consumer electronics Personal-care products Remaining cautiousness
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Only 28 percent of Japanese consumers intend to splurge in 2021; high-income households and younger consumers have strongest intent Expected leisure spend in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves ~28% Plan to splurge or treat themselves Vaccinated 28% 28% Interested Cautious Unlikely 29% 20% 45% Gen Z Baby boomers Millennials Gen X 33% 27% Medium (JP¥4M–JP¥8M) Low (<JP¥4M) 33% High (>JP¥8M) 23% 30% Willingness to splurge isn’t correlated to vaccination adoption ~45% of Gen Z ~33% of wealthier households 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Low sample size <30. 3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years By generation3 By income By vaccination adoption N/A2 Remaining cautiousness
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 High-income Gen Z consumers intend to splurge the most; lower-income groups are more conservative across age groups Expected leisure spend in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves ~28% Plan to splurge or treat themselves >70% <30% 50–70% 30–50% Gen Z Millennials Gen X Generation2 Mid (JP¥4M–JP¥8M/year) 33% 35% 17% 29% 40% 30% 36% 46% 58% Low (<JP¥4/year) High (> JP¥8M/year) Baby Boomers Household income 13% 17% 27% 1 Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Remaining cautiousness
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 A spike in consumer spending on travel, dining, and apparel is expected, but will be spread out over time Expected leisure categories on which people plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves 49 39 38 21 18 16 8 7 6 Household essentials Travel, lodging, & vacation Restaurants, dining out, bars Apparel, shoes & accessories Beauty & personal care Out-of-home entertainment Items for your home Fitness, sports, & outdoors Electronics Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category 62 55 40 39 43 62 46 52 47 16 32 44 46 35 19 29 38 29 20 11 15 15 18 19 25 5 18 4 5 6 1 1 2 Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading I am vaccinated Anytime Family is vaccinated 1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intent to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. N=286 2 Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Remaining cautiousness
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 More than 70 percent of splurge spend will come from money that consumers have on hand 1 Q: For your future splurge on previously selected items, how do you intend to pay? Please select the answer that best represents your situation. N=286 2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Financing source of splurge spend1, % average of respondents who plan to spend, by generation Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers From available budget 73% 64% 74% 76% 72% By reducing spend elsewhere 34% 26% 24% 11% 24% From savings 20% 26% 19% 29% 24% 2% 1% 7% 0% By using credit or a buy now, pay later option 3% Average by financing source Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Generation2 >50% <20% 36–50% 21–35% Remaining cautiousness
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Likely-to-vaccinate people hold back more on returning to normal routines than those cautious or unlikely to get vaccinated Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Expectations on routines returning to normal1 % of respondents Expectations on finances returning to normal2 % of respondents 52 50 42 14 15 11 66 65 52 3 6 13 30 24 21 34 Vaccinated 31 Interested Cautious Unlikely 33 Already back to normal By June 2021 21% of Gen Z and millennials vs 9% of Gen X and those above 14% in urban and suburban vs 33% in rural 1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 3 Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received both doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “Very likely” (6) and “Likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “Somewhat likely” (4) or “Somewhat unlikely” (3) are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “Unlikely” (2) or “Very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.” “Vaccinated” has small sample size <30. N/A3 N/A3 Remaining cautiousness
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Consumer intent to spend more after COVID-19 subsides across categories, especially on out-of-home discretionary categories Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years 1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending; N/A = data not available or sample size < 30. -15 to 0 Below -15 Above +1 Below 0 Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15 Net intent2 Pet food & supplies Vitamins & OTC medicine Domestic flights Hotel/resort stays Adventures & tours Out-of-home entertainment Pet-care services Fitness & wellness Personal-care services Gasoline Short-term home rentals Cruises Travel by car International flights Books/magazines/newspapers Consumer electronics Entertainment at home Vehicles Post-COVID-19 1 1 54 51 60 42 -5 24 11 27 N/A2 N/A2 34 47 0 0 0 14 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to post COVID-191 % of respondents Net intent2 Groceries Toys & baby goods Tobacco products Food takeout & delivery Alcoholic beverages Accessories Household supplies Apparel Quick-service restaurant Footwear Home improvement & gardening Restaurant Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Sports & outdoors Home & furniture Jewelry Kitchen & dining Post-COVID-19 5 5 -3 -15 2 4 2 11 18 6 6 47 2 7 14 1 -5 1 Next 2 weeks 9 -8 -1 14 -2 -32 2 -26 -24 -22 5 -43 0 -8 -16 -8 -45 -3 Evolution Next 2 weeks 1 2 -55 -54 -57 -33 -17 -17 -21 -8 N/A2 N/A2 -7 -71 -3 -10 19 -9 Evolution Remaining cautiousness
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started and how often1,2 % of respondents More than one-third of Japanese shoppers have tried a new shopping behavior and the majority of them intend to continue Continued loyalty disruption 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 14% 12% 9% 6% 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% Different retailer/store/website Private label/store brand New shopping method3 New digital shopping method Different brand 17% 1% 16% 12% 9% 7% Intent to continue4 97% 87% 90% 93% 87% 38% of consumers have tried a new shopping behavior Just once Sometimes Regularly >50% of millennials and Gen Z have tried a new shopping behavior 1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 62% consumers selected “none of these.” 2 Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. 4 Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 While value and convenience are top drivers for trying a new store, purpose is a key reason for one out of four shoppers 1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three. 37% 34% 3% 21% 15% 11% 7% 28% 15% 10% 4% 12% 10% 18% 3% 5% Offers good delivery/pickup options Better prices/promotions Better shipping/delivery costs Better value Less crowded / has shorter lines More easily accessible from my home Can get all the items I need from one place Products are in stock Shares my values Supporting local businesses Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options 1% The company treats its employees well Wanted variety/change from my normal routine Wanted to treat myself Better quality Offers natural/organic options Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Personal choice Value 59% Convenience 45% Purpose-driven 26% Availability 28% Quality/organic 19% 21% Health/hygiene 5% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three x% Net % of respondents per category Continued loyalty disruption
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 After value, novelty and brand purpose are the top drivers for switching brands 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Over-arching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group. 33% 31% 9% 3% 32% 21% 24% 9% 4% 3% 29% 8% 20% 15% 17% 16% 13% Larger package sizes Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before Better shipping/delivery costs Is more sustainable / better for the environment Shares my values Better prices/promotions Is available where I’m shopping Wanted to treat myself Better value Wanted to try a new brand I found Supporting local businesses The company treats its employees well Better quality Is natural/organic Wanted variety/change from my normal routine Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Products are in stock Novelty Personal choice Purpose-driven Quality/organic Convenience Health/hygiene Availability 16% Value 57% 33% 32% 41% 13% 17% 30% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three x% Net % of respondents per category Continued loyalty disruption
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Consumers’ use of online channel during, and after COVID-191,2,3 % of respondents 1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? Includes respondents who chose “some online,” “most online,” and “all online.” 2 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select “yes” or “no” for each category. Includes respondents who selected “Yes” for the category. 3 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? : “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online;” and “buy more online.” 4 Number indicates respondents who chose at least one category that they purchase online. 5 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. Most consumers intend to continue online purchasing in the future, across categories Rooting of new digital habits Purchase online after COVID-19 Net intent5 after COVID-19 37 47 28 30 16 13 24 48 45 48 33 44 Groceries / food for home Apparel Household supplies Alcoholic beverages Restaurant Personal-care products Personal-care services Skin care & makeup Food takeout Books/magazines/newspapers Footwear Vitamins and OTC medecine 80 50 87 74 73 80 54 53 75 82 Since COVID-19 began 94% 90% 10% 13% 87% 10% 13% 90% 87% 77% 23% 77% 23% 87% 13% 91% 9% 75% 25% 6% 89% 11% 92% 8% Decrease or stop ​Increase or stay the same 78 85 86% currently purchasing online4 96% intend to continue purchasing online post-COVID-194 % of online purchase during COVID-19 for most purchased categories Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Above 50 0 to 20 Below 0 20 to 50 Net intent5
  • 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Certain categories show stronger online intent post-pandemic, such as toys and baby goods; apparel shows higher intent to return to offline Rooting of new digital habits 1 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “yes” for the category and currently buying the category. 2 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; “buy more online.” 3 Net intent is calculated among respondents currently buying online by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 4 Low sample size (<30). Consumers’ use of online channel during1 and after2 COVID-19 % of respondents buying this category 37% 13% 45% 24% 16% 13% 33% 47% 18% 39% 61% 28% 30% 48% 36% 41% 28% 29% Apparel Quick-service restaurant Tobacco products Groceries Food takeout & delivery Restaurant Alcoholic beverages Footwear Jewelry Accessories Toys & baby Household supplies Home improvement & gardening Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Home & furniture Sports & outdoors Kitchen & dining 47% 44% 79% 48% 51% 32% 15% 17% 37% 16% 40% 38% Pet-care services Pet food & supplies Consumer electronics Vitamins & OTC medicine 11% Entertainment out of home Entertainment at home Books/magazines/newspaperss Fitness & wellness Cruises Personal-care services Hotel/resort stays Short-term home rentals 12% Travel by car Adventures & tours International flights Domestic flights Net intent3 post-COVID-19 89 90 85 87 80 89 71 71 75 74 49 N/A4 67 82 N/A4 71 Since COVID-19 began Net intent3 post-COVID-19 73 72 69 50 75 54 80 53 74 14 78 83 80 82 74 81 83 80 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years N/A4 N/A4 Above 50 0 to 20 Below 0 20 to 50 Net intent3
  • 23. McKinsey & Company 23 44 70 64 58 12 75 74 20 22 18 14 72 16 76 26 46 80 24 28 45 30 78 32 80 34 36 85 50 38 40 90 42 48 50 95 52 54 56 60 62 66 68 Sports equipment Household supplies Alcoholic beverages Kitchen & dining Tobacco products Footwear Home improvement & gardening Toys & baby Groceries Accessories Apparel Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Home & furniture Pet food & supplies Entertainment at home Vitamins & OTC Food takeout Electronics Fitness & wellness Books/magazines/newspapers Intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191 Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level 1. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category. Note: Thresholds of categories are defined by the terciles. The 1st tercile of Intent occurs at 30%, and the 2nd occurs at 51%. Online grocery buying will continue to grow but many home categories will mostly go back to in-person buying in store Penetration since COVID-19 2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Greater online presence Less-accelerated online shift Sustained shift to online Rooting of new digital habits
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents currently using/doing 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Small sample size (n < 30). 4% 3% 7% 12% 2% 4% 2% 2% 8% 2% 8% 5% 9% 14% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 1% 5% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% Restaurant delivery 1% Buy online for in-store pickup 1% Grocery delivery 1% Meal-kit delivery 1% Pay more for two-hour delivery Pay more for same-day delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru In-store self-checkout Restaurant curbside pickup 1% Store curbside pickup Used a new store/restaurant app Used deal-finding plug-ins Purchased pre-owned products 1% 1% Purchased directly from social media Intent to continue,2 % 45% 74% 48% 63% 94% 57% 81% 66% 67% 70% 60%3 77% N/A3 N/A3 In-store self-checkout and buying online for in-store pickup show stronger intent to continue post-pandemic Rooting of new digital habits Just started using Using more Using same/less Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years N/A3 N/A3
  • 25. McKinsey & Company 25 60 0 75 55 10 30 0 50 20 45 65 70 40 80 95 85 90 Used deal-finding plug-ins Store curbside pickup Restaurant curbside pickup Meal-kit delivery Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru In-store self-checkout Buy online for in-store pickup Used a new store/restaurant app Purchased pre-owned products Intent to use after COVID-191 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since Coronavirus started", "Using more since Coronavirus started", "Using less since Coronavirus started" or "Using about the same since Coronavirus started". Possible answers not included: "Not Using" 3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 6%, Intent to use median = 67%. Restaurant apps and in-store pickup are new habits acquired during the crisis which are most likely to stick Rooting of new digital habits Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years User growth3: 0-19% User growth: 20-39% User growth: 40-59% User growth: 60%+ Penetration since COVID-19 2 Big surge during COVID-19, but not enough penetration or intent to fully stick No real shift since COVID-19 New behaviors spurred by COVID-19 Popular & enduring
  • 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Omnichannel shopping behaviors such as grocery delivery or online purchase with store pickup are likely here to stay or accelerate Rooting of new digital habits Intent to use after COVID-191 % of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 Low Medium-high User growth since COVID-19 2 Medium-high Low 3 Works for now Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Status quo/ plateauing Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Status quo/plateauing Data not available Sep Nov Feb Meal-kit delivery N/A4 Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Restaurant curbside pickup Store curbside pickup (mostly grocery) Used a new store/restaurant app Buy online for in-store pickup In-store self-checkout Used deal-finding plug-ins Purchased pre-owned products online 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same or using less). 3 Assume threshold for user growth is 39% and intent to use post-COVID-19 is 62% 4 Data not available” or small sample size <30. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years
  • 27. McKinsey & Company 27 At-home activities like streaming and cooking have grown and are likely to stay, with videoconferencing for work growing less 10% 1% 1% 10% 4% 2% 2% 18% 7% 11% 6% 1% 1% 1% 7% 2% 2% 3% 15% 5% 5% 9% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Online fitness Telemedicine: mental Wellness app Video chat: personal Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Telemedicine: physical Digital exercise machine Social media Watching e-sports Playing online games TikTok Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care/grooming at home Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents currently using/doing Intent to continue2 % 85% 72% 56% 80% 52% 82%3 67%3 80%3 67%3 80% 82% 88% N/A3 55% 61% 45% 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Low sample size (n = < 30). Rooting of new digital habits Just started using Using same/less Using more Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years N/A
  • 28. McKinsey & Company 28 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: "Just started using since Coronavirus started", "Using more since Coronavirus started", "Using less since Coronavirus started" or "Using about the same since Coronavirus started". Possible answers not included: "Not Using" 3 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 6%, Intent to use median = 67%. Digital habits adopted during the crisis such as professional videoconferencing and personal learning are likely to remain Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Rooting of new digital habits Intent to use after COVID-191 - Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 0 52 45 47 62 46 57 48 91 12 86 33 49 50 65 51 64 53 85 54 55 94 89 69 56 18 58 83 59 60 61 93 63 66 67 68 70 71 92 24 78 72 82 73 74 75 76 80 77 79 81 84 87 88 15 90 0 3 6 9 21 27 30 36 Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Video chat: personal Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Playing online games TikTok Watching e-sports Cooked regularly Personal care / grooming at home Used social media Niche behaviors but growing fast with very loyal consumers who want to continue using it post-COVID-19 Big surge during COVID-19, but not enough penetration or intent to fully stick No real shift since COVID-19 Niche and loyal New behaviors spurred by COVID-19 Universally popular Penetration since COVID-19 2 User growth3: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+
  • 29. McKinsey & Company 29 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). 3 Not included or insufficient sample (n = < 30). Intent to use after COVID-191 % of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity once pandemic subsides Low Medium-high User growth since COVID-19 2 Medium-high Low Works for now Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Status quo/ plateauing Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Status quo/plateauing Data not available September November February Online fitness N/A3 Digital exercise machine N/A3 N/A3 Wellness app N/A3 Online streaming TikTok Used social media Cooked regularly Videoconferencing: professional Video chat: personal Telemedicine: physical N/A3 Telemedicine: mental N/A3 Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Watching e-sports Playing online games Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, 11/9–11/15/2020, n = 1,039; 9 /22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; sampled and weighted to match Japan’s general population 18+ years Rooting of new digital habits Most digital habits are likely to stick with streaming, professional videoconferencing, and personal remote learning gaining traction
  • 30. McKinsey & Company 30 Nearly one-third of consumers have made important life changes, including 12 percent who have worked more from home Continued flexible work style 1 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? (69% of respondents selected “None of these”). Details next 2% Permanently moved to the suburbs 1% Bought a car Got a new pet at home (e.g., dog, cat) Permanently moved to a new city 5% 1% Moved into a smaller home Worked more from home Moved into a bigger home 2% Decided to change jobs 1% Went back to school Permanently moved to the countryside Permanently moved in with family Set up a specific work from home space Set up a gym at home Renovated/remodeled my home Reassessed my investment portfolio 12% Sold a property Bought a property 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 6% 2% Pet adoption 2% Work/study change 15% House move 4% Home renovation 7% Investments/ Divestments 13% Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191 % of respondents Of which 24% have made home renovations Of which 42% are millennials vs sample of 31% Of which 46% have income >¥JP8M vs sample of 30% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years
  • 31. McKinsey & Company 31 Used a new store/restaurant app4 Videoconferencing Online streaming Cooked regularly for myself/my family In-store self-checkout 73 Restaurant delivery 76 82 90 83 42 7% 9% 44% 40% Most consumers will continue to work from home the same or more post-COVID-19, with digital services use remaining high Continued flexible work style 60% will continue to work from home the same or more post-COVID-19 Use of digital services2 % respondents who worked more from home during the crisis Work from home after COVID-19 as compared to during COVID-191 % respondents who worked more from home during the crisis Work outside home more Work only from home Work from home the same Work from home more 49 10 1 1 -6 -9 Diff. with those who did not, percentage point3 1 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Asked of respondents who selected “Work more from home" in the Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 2 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Respondents who selected “Worked more from home.“ Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Respondents who selected: “I will keep doing what I am doing now“ or “I will increase this.“ 3 Difference between respondents who selected “Worked more from home“ and those that didn’t. 4 Low sample base (n<30). Diff. Above +9 Diff.: 5 to 9 Diff.: Below 0 Diff.: 0 to 4 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Japan Consumer Pulse Survey 2/24–2/27/2021, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Japan's general population 18+ years Plan to continue or increase usage
  • 32. McKinsey & Company 32 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.